NASDAQ futures are coming into the third Wednesday of December with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume. Price was choppy and balanced overnight, balancing along the topside of Tuesday’s midpoint. At 8:30am retail sales data came out below expectations and a bit of selling hit the tape. As we approach cash opne price is hovering above the Tuesday midpoint.
Also on the economic calendar today we have business inventories and housing market index at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and then a Fed rate decision at 2pm (followed by a press conference at 2:30pm).
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down into the gap zone from last Monday. Buyers drove higher on the open but stalled before they could regain Monday range. Instead 16k was a wall and sellers proceeded to close the gap left behind last week monday. Sellers probed a bit below the gap before the auction reversed mid afternoon and ramped back above the midpoint into the close.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 15,922.25. From here buyers probe beyond Tuesday high 15,998.75 setting up a run to 16,100. Then look for third reaction to the Fed decision to dictate direction into the end of the day.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 15,848 and tag 15,800. Then look for third reaction to the Fed decision to dictate direction into the end of the day.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 16,148. Then look for third reaction to the Fed decision to dictate direction into the end of the day.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:
