The NASDAQ futures continued pressing higher overnight and even managed to make a new contract high during a globex session that featured normal range and volume. The action was balanced, overall, but as we head into cash open price is up at the high. At 8:15am the ADP Employment change stats were slightly above expectations and saw a muted reaction. At 8:30am Trade Balance data came out slightly better than expectations and also elicited little response from the market.
The economic calendar is interesting today. We have ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite numbers at 10am. At the same time, Fed chair Yellen will start her testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. They intend to drill her this time on The Feds role in financial regulation. Usually they are questioning monetary policy, so this will be a fresh line of questioning and discovery. Hopefully you have a news feed for monitoring this. We also have the Crude/Distillate inventory out at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day. This day type carries slightly less directional conviction than a trend day, but still indicates the market is discovering prices and not in balance.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make an effort at pushing into the overnight inventory. Look for them to stall out before closing the gap down to 4710.75, instead finding responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday close) at 4713.75 who work higher to take out overnight high 4728. Look for responsive sellers at 4734.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers work down and close the overnight gap down to 4710.75 then set their sights on overnight low 4708 then a test below 4705.25. Responsive buyers are found just below 4705 and two way trade ensues south of 4726.
Hypo 3 buyers strong off the open, push through and sustain trade above 4734.50 to set up a continued exploration of higher prices.
Hypo 4 sellers accelerated down through 4705 and set their sights on the 4700 century mark. Stretch targets below are 4695.50 then 4692.75.
Levels:
How’s that BIS treating ya? Ouch!
down about 1.5% on the position and biotech looks like its for sale today
I just don’t understand why you would be short anything right here is all…just razing you a bit. I know you make good grades most of the Time!
It’s an addiction, I see opportunity and I pursue it.
hypo 2 so far
Could someone direct me to a site or any resource where I can get up to speed on Raul’s charts and model. many thanks, Mike
book called Mind Over Markets by dalton for starters
Starter position in QQQ puts…January expiry.
tough environment to swing short, esp w/poots, IMO, but godspeed pb, I’m rooting for you
Been some nasty layoffs hitting the news…and at top tier A.1. (pun intended) companies. The market will not ignore it for long.