Chipping Away

I had a nice stat to work going into today. It’s the probability of the NASDAQ going RE down after 3 consecutive up days. It’s around 90%

I also came into the week with a short bias, via the Rose Colored Sunglasses (RCS) model.

This is one of those esoteric posts I only write for the hard core trader/stat nerds. You are my ilk, no more a citizen then the average reader, but likely a better trader, thinker, and manager of the goblins.

Whenever I can line up a bunch of statistical advantages I do. This is my edge, just like the triple intraday confluence and other abnormal happenings I have my team of robots managing.

The short bias is working this week, indexwise, I have been working the right side of the tape so far. This is great, because the prior two weeks were an exercise in futility Monday-Wednesday, trying to short, and RCS was being called into question.

My only misstep was not reentering BIS today. I was distracted—getting my mullet trimmed off before the iBankCoin investor conference.  I had a tier-one hipster mullet, a perfect styling for trailblazing the Warrior-like streets of Detroit, but it had no place inside the Yale Club.

Sellers won today. They might win this week after two consecutive losses. Or, and more likely, we drift. Drift is good. It causes weak hands to waffle out, leaving real men to capitalize on the backs of an appreciating stocked market.