Today might be an interesting day. [Super] Mario Draghi is speaking as I type and giving some commentary about the ECB rate decision which was in line with expectations. We had US jobs data at 8:30am and was stronger than expected. The initial reaction in Nasdaq futures was a selloff which is currently finding some responsive buying. As we come into the nine o’clock hour futures are set to gap higher.
On deck during the session is a Composite PMI at 9:45 and ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10:00am. We also have a 10:30 Natural Gas Storage change report.
On the intermediate term timeframe, we can see buyers held control yesterday even though it was a fairly balanced session yesterday. The key context was the low volume node “pivot” we discussed at 3885.75. We pretty well used that level up yesterday, testing it four times. I have now adjusted my key LVN down to 3882.50, just half a point below yesterday’s low of the session. This level seperates us from any potential liquidation. I have also put some measured moves in place for the session, with the 3900 century mark being a primary goal for the session. We tested the level twice overnight too, see below:
These are some of the levels I will be watching on the short term, as defined on the market profile:
REMEMBER: 1pm market close today. Thus, 1pm = time to turn on your #MERICAN
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hypo 1 – press lower through 3900 century mark and down to VAH 3893.50 find some responsive buying before rotating lower to 3889.75 to fill overnight gap.
hypo 2 – rotate lower through 3900 century mark, down through VAH 3893.50 and test value area low at 3887.25 where we find responsive buying and balance out
hypo 3 – gap-and-go drive higher
hypo 4 – fast gap fill drive lower, caution below 3882.50