Everything is Priced In — Stop Trying to Play the Hurricane

It’s over, weatherfags. I sold out of UVE and AEL — because some idiots thought it was a good idea to bet against a midwest life insurance stock because of thunderstorms in Florida. Both FIZZ and UVE have been fulfilling, but AEL was probably the easiest money I’ve made in years.

Markets are up bigly — there is nothing out there for you to play. If you want to dive back into LOW, LL and PGTI — go ahead and be my guest. But there isn’t the explosive money to be made in those, not yet at least. Bear in mind, the hurricane season is just getting started. People in Texas and Florida are gonna need those hurricane proof windows, if they’re interested in keeping those gusty winds out of their drawing rooms.

The only thing left to do, something I did a short while ago, is to dive back into the best investment over the past 5 years. The ETF that has returned over 500% by simply jogging on. It is the quintessenatial token of leisure, the windcock of Wall Street that serves as a reminder that the bull market can never be stopped. I am talking about fading volatility, via XIV.

Prove me wrong.

Not the most professional headline in the world and I am certain it wouldn’t bode over well with some of you more sensitive types. But I had to express my innermost animalistic tendencies, commingling 4 letter gutter talk with success in high finance.

You thought you were good, up until the point when you realized that someone like me existed — who effortlessly fulfilled the destiny of Ra’s al Ghul, destroying Florida, while making a fucktonne of money helping people rebuild and quench their thirst.

Observe.

I’m out of UVE — moving onto the next one — but still very much long FIZZ. From my vantage point, the people at Pepsi have a very easy decision to make. They could either remain the junk food kings — selling shit inside of garbage cans to kids in Mexico — or they can buyout FIZZ for $240 and repent for their fucking sins.

Markets are on blast off mode and I have little reason to sell my FAZ position — especially since banks are still screwed. I just thought I’d pop in here, amidst the celebrations and decadent lunches, to let you know that my first foray into discretionary trading in nearly 2 years has resulted in immense profit.

For some of us out there, it’s as simple as riding a tri-cycle.

***PRIORITY: watch UVE, BCRH, HCI, FNHC, HRTG, AHL, VR, UIHC, RE, GLRC, IBKC, CSFL***

Just saying the word ‘nothing-burger’ instantly makes you a dick. I find it to equal the use of the word ciao, especially for non-Italians.

Insurance stocks are going to pop the fuck off today. In the pre-market, UVE is +13.5%. Wait until normal people arrive to work and do some lines of cocaine off their desks and then apply some real money into these stocks. Shorts are going to rue the day they turned on the fucking weather channel.

Over in Europe, shit is getting sporty, with the IBEX leading the charge higher by 1.48%. The Eurostoxx 50 is higher by 1.2%. Expect this enthusiasm to transfer here at the open. Dow futures are higher by 127.

The only notable weakness is in gold, off by 0.77%.

Here are some analyst moves, courtesy of my god damned Twitter account. I have no reason to be this angry so early — but I am so don’t fuck with me.

Some quick items that just hit the tape.

Teva Pharma upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research
NVIDIA: SepQ GPU and Ryzen pricing strong; positive for NVDA/AMD. data center remains key – Mizuho
Kroger: Spending forces Kroger off long-term guide – RBC
MasterCard upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim

Gapping up:
IDRA +13.8%, TEVA +11.2%, ZUMZ +11%, BV +8.4%, ARRY +7%, KURA +6.4%, RDFN +4.3%, AGX +4.1%, OKTA +3.2%, AMD +2.6%, REVG +2.4%, YNDX +2.3%, CLDR +2.3%, INCY +2%, EXEL +2%, TSLA +1.8%, CLF +1.8%, MZOR +1.6%, AZN +1.6%, ACH +1.5%, GRFS +1.4%, AAPL +1.3%, OPK +1.3%, EA +1.3%, MU +1.2%, MT +1.2%, WB +1.1%, NFLX +1.1%, NVDA +1%, MOMO +1%, FB +0.8%, RIO +0.8%

Gapping down:
IDRA 13.8%, AOBC -17.2%, CHKE -16.1%, TNTR -13.9%, ACHN -13%, SAIC -5.9%, PAY -5%, PAY -5%, GG -2%, HMY -1.9%, CYAD -1.8%, FIZZ -1.8%, UTHR -1.7%, SIGM -1.6%, GOLD -1.3%, GDX -1.3%, SLV -1.2%, TLRD -1.2%, RGLD -1.1%, ABX -1%, AG -1%, NEM -0.8%, GLD -0.8%, NEM -0.8%

DEVELOPING…

I’m very glad that this storm wreaked havoc across Florida, as it put to bed the idea of moving to that bedraggled state at House Fly. Over on Wall Street, traders are enthusiastic, thanks to the perfumed scent of money wafting through the sky. Irma was bad, but hardly catastrophic, from a bankers point of view.

As I type this, from the darkest corner of my oversized house, lit with candles and the imbued with the tunes of Duke Ellington eerily echoing throughout the hallways, futures are frantically higher.

More than that, I’m heading into the morning session overweight a Floridian insurance stock that was placed upon the rack and shredded last week. Here are the stock, courtesy of Exodus, that will be in play tomorrow.

I knew the sector was oversold, based upon historical precedence on Thursday — because that’s what the software was built to do. Look.

Some of the crazies even started to hit life insurance stocks, domiciled in the midwest, as if Irma was readying to unleash an apocalypse on America — leaving millions dead in its wake. These are always the best opportunities. I bought AEL into the maelstrom and will be profiting soon.

As for my PGTI, FAZ and FIZZ positions. I think it’s fair to say this storm created enough fright to make PGTI’s sales pitch a bit easier for hurricane proof windows. People are still parched as fuck, running away from a category 1 thunderstorm and the banks are still screwed, unrelated to the storm — but thanks to the yield curve.

My weekend was fine, otherwise. I didn’t do much, other than saunter around — reading things — drinking a few cocktails — eating a few foods.

See you in the AM.

It looks like Irma was a big nothing-burger. Sure, there are some down palmed trees and power lines — a little flooding here and there. But the ghastly predictions of apocalyptic rage being unleashed on Miami turned out to be nothing less than superficial nonsense.

Alas, global warmingfags have been BTFO again and Dow futures are higher by 100. Subsequently, gold is off by 0.75%.

Gents and ladies leisurely loot during Hurricane Irma.

The NIKKEI is running higher by 1% this evening too, on news that nuclear war with N. Korea has been postponed. All in all, we stand to make a fucking fortune with our UVE positions, whilst giving back a tad in the FAZ.

All reports now say Irma will be reduced to a cat 1 by the time it reaches Tampa.

***UPDATE: DOW FUTURES OPENED +100. PREPARE TO GET RICH ON OUR UVE POSITIONS***

The Hurricane Irma drama continues.

Fox News is reporting that wind gusts of 142mph are happening now in Naples, Fl. Check out the video below.

CNN’s Chris Cuomo is being destroyed.

Chris Cuomo battling Irma's full force in Naples. Peak gust 142 mph at 4:35 pm https://t.co/SBp2cjLCIK pic.twitter.com/Gv1IjMAQij

— CNN Weather Center (@CNNweather) September 10, 2017

Weathermen are, generally, crazy.

Just an AMAZING job by @mikebettes and @weatherchannel team in #Naples . Breathtaking live shot as #Irma eyewall overhead #hurricaneirma pic.twitter.com/WhoNvf5XR9

— Michael Howard (@MHoward_TV) September 10, 2017

10-15ft storm surge expected.

Trees and power lines are down in Naples, FL, where a 10-15 feet storm surge is expected to arrive later on. @JonVigliotti reporting. pic.twitter.com/eECVPUeEmf

— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 10, 2017

Surge coming into Naples FL @WeatherNation @JVPStorm @Tracey_Wx @MoSigg pic.twitter.com/r9lG0noNIp

— martin herrera (@9Cowboysrule) September 10, 2017

More on the carnage.

STORM DAMAGE – Here's a live look of what we are seeing from our field crews in Naples, FL #flwx #Irma

pic.twitter.com/cL48eIb52F

— Salvador Rosales (@SalvaRosalesSV) September 10, 2017

UPDATE: This guy is storm chasing on Marco Island or Naples and has it pinned on his Facebook account.

Irma has just landed on Marco Island as a cat 3.

Emmy award winning storm chaser, Jeff Piotrowski is reporting from inside the eyewall, with very large balls. He reported wind gusts of 140mph.

Breaking damaging reports in eye now.#flwx @nwsmiami https://t.co/sjh961MX0K

— Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski) September 10, 2017

Uh, oh. This isn’t good for our local insurance outfits. The seawall is gone. Miami is now part of the ocean.

BONUS: Here’s a man trying to measure Irma’s winds.

Roof ripped off in Miami.

Furious waves in inland Miami.

Over 2.3m people are expected to be without power.

Dr. Masters over at Wunderground gives us the quick rundown on Irma. It looks like she weakened a bit, slumming through Cuba. Now she’s shifted NNW, en route to Tampa.

Irma moving west. pic.twitter.com/j7TJCVGHQK

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 10, 2017

Irma is still predicted to “run the peninsula”, taking an unusual track from south-southeast to north-northwest along the length of the state. This forecast track has steadily nudged west since Thursday, and Irma is now expected to track closer to Florida’s west coast than its east coast. Models are now in very close agreement, and we expect little significant shift to this track outlook.

Parts of the Florida Keys will experience extreme winds and storm surge. On its west-northwest heading late Saturday, Irma was aimed toward the west of Key West, which would put the the city on the storm’s more dangerous right-hand side. However, Irma is beginning to angle rightward, and this will most likely bring its core somewhere near or just east of Key West between around 2 and 8 am Sunday. Winds of 120 mph or more can be expected just east of the eye, and storm surge is predicted to range from 5 to 10 feet.

A catastrophic storm surge is increasingly likely from Fort Myers to Naples on Sunday afternoon as Irma passes along or just to the west of this coastline. Surge values of 10 to 15 feet are expected from Cape Sable to Captiva. Vanderbilt Beach at Naples experienced a peak surge of 10-13 feet during Hurricane Charley, and Captiva Island experienced a surge of 6.5 feet. Irma’s surge will be more widespread and devastating to southwest Florida than the surge experienced during Charley, since Irma is a much bigger storm and has had more time to build up a larger surge. Parts of this coastline may also experience destructive Category 2 or 3 winds if Irma intensifies as expected and its center remains just offshore. Assuming that Irma moves inland between Fort Myers and Tampa as predicted, surge values northward through the Tampa area will be somewhat lower, but still potentially 5 to 8 feet. It would take a significant jump westward in the forecast track to put Tampa on the more dangerous right-hand side of the storm.

As much as we hate to see people suffer through a storm of this magnitude, those who bought UVE on Friday stand to make a mint on Monday. The fact that the eyewall has moved to the west gives me reason to believe the damage to Miami will be manageable and not catastrophic.

Here is the current forecasted path.

Rooftop cam — Keywest

A wise man once told me, ‘the problem with moving to Florida is that you’d become a Floridian.’ After years of visiting Disney and seeing some of the worst people in the northeast venture down there for a ‘better life’, I began to realize this great man was a sage.

As everyone knows by now, a big storm is heading for Florida — forcing mass evacuations. The Mayor of Miami Beach, catering to the Sharknado tier IQ of his constituency, labeled it a ‘nuclear storm.’ The Governor has warned residents ‘you’re not going to survive’, demanding that they leave.

Fine.

Then answer this for me. If everyone is leaving the storm zones, why the fuck are Floridians stockpiling on water? They’ve even set up trackers to tell citizens where to get gas and water, as if Atlanta didn’t have enough water for them.

Here are people scrambling to get some water, just before being forced to evacuate.

Do these people believe Hurricane Irma will wipe out the entire state, leaving it without fresh water supplies? Or, are they taking the water with them to Atlanta, fearing Georgia didn’t have enough for them?

Hard questions need to be asked and we northerners demand answers.

Are Floridians, as a whole, retarded?

Separately,  I’ve been reading some reports that suggest ALPHA MALES are buying the shit out of La Croix, designer sparkling water, ahead of Irma. Here’s a snapshot of a man contemplating which flavor to buy:  Pamplemousse or Pina Fraise?

Alpha Male deciding which La Croix flavor to buy

On a personal note, I ate 1 roasted pepper and a hummus wrap this morning, alongside a black coffee, whilst listening to Al Bowlly ‘dance orchestra’ music — hoping to make mass coin in my FIZZ-FAZ positions. Then it dawned on me: I am the exact opposite person now from who I was when I started the blog.

Back then, I listened to gangster rap music and made a big fuss about everything. Now, I listen to music from a century again, calm as a cucumber.

I used to buy MNST stock — because I was always hopped up on energy soda. Now I own a faggot water stock and post pictures of ‘alpha males’ deciding on which faggot flavor they’re gonna purchase.

‘Tis is life.