OILS BOGGED AGAIN ***

I was distracted yesterday and wasn’t thinking clearly. I had a full book of oils and natty stocks, hoping and praying that Europe, this time, would freeze. I didn’t want to hurt the Europeans per se — just freeze them a little so that I could profit. If I could profit without them freezing, that would be far less dramatic — but also acceptable.

Well crude is down 3.5% and I got blown out of my positions for losses, placing me in a 1.25% hole. Bear in mind, had oil gone up today and my positions soared, this blog would’ve been intolerable about how smart of a trader I was and how happy I was to be born a genius.

The best thing that can happen for oil is for the war to end. Also bear in mind that Russian Urals oil is trading at a $20 discount to Brent — which is causing downward pressure on oil to persist. There is an evergreen desire to keep the war going and Russian oil flowing cheaply at the expense of Ukrainian blood — so until there is a lack of desire to maim and kill the circus will continue.

Markets appear strong today — but they’re not. Breadth is 35% and the IWM is down 1.2%. There is strength at the mega cap level; but everything else is 100% trash. At the moment, I am net short via TZA, LABD and FAZ.

I want to show you that I was at all time RECOURD highs before I talked shit.

We’ve got the most corrupt President at it since Grant — perhaps way worse. Come to think of it, Biden is massive piece of shit and BOTH of his sons were and are too. There is nothing at all redeemable about Kamala Harris or, for that matter — anyone else inside of his corrupt regime.

They bring nothing but danger into the lives of each living American — and I feeeeeeel like it’s time to start pricing that shit in.

We’ve got submarines stuck inside the wreckage of the Titanic, $6.3b accounting errors corrected by sending Ukraine more money. The grift and the money laundering is endless — pointing towards an evil desire to kill people. I don’t give a fuck what the end game is or the root causes. I just want this fucking risk priced in NOW!

VIX to $100, perhaps a bit more. We’re all too complacent, lazy even, hoping for the best and ignoring the worst. I have news for you, we’re about to price this shit in.

I haven’t had any real drawdown in years. I’ve been steadily progressing with my ideas and instincts and my fucking toolz and just collecting money. In an ideal world, markets would fucking collapse and the VIX would crest above $100 and people would get scared. Who is scared now?

Anyone scared of Russia? Anyone scared of recession?

No. We have fuckers out there salivating for blood and war and cutting their dicks off during their lunch breaks to celebrate pride month. We live in a crazy time and I hate it.

Nevertheless, this is my country and I’ll just have to sit around and wait for a military junta to take it over and quarantine people for their ideas.

I am +30bps, after wasting a few grand on a SQQQ hedge. It’s a waste of fucking money to attempt hedging. The SPY is down about 1.5% the past 3 days and the bears are out in force attempting to roll the ball downhill. Nothing will move and markets will only keep going higher — because we have so much fucking money — and so much control over the indices — literally nothing at all can stop this momentum.

I wish it were different. But it isn’t. So we make money betting with the bastards.

It’s finally raining in Raleigh. Lo and behold, my tree has come back to life. I was one or two more drought days away from removing it like a retard for another crepe myrtle. I watered it and watered it and it remained wilted and droopy. Who knew it needed some rain water to perk the fuck up. Perhaps my tap water is poisonous.

My next project will be to improve this fucking lawn. There is a shallow root structure because apparently my house is on top of a boulder and the rock below doesn’t permit for the grass to withstand much sun. This fall, I am buying one of those lanzie wheels and I am going to aerate the fuck out of it and then layer on a nice coat of compost, and then seed.

As far as markets are concerned, I am not really interested. I had this EXAS up 10% in the AHs last night and ended up selling up just 2%. Once I saw that I sold everything but my bitcoin, which is breaking out by the way.

But let’s not get too excited. All of you BTC maxxers are soiling yourselves over this move but remember all of the other failed attempts at $30k and simmer the fuck down.

“THIS IS IT…THIS IS THE BIG ONE.”

Relax.

I have to walk my fucking dogs now. I have two small dogs, one is shy and nice and the other bites anything that moves. I am not kidding. She is a rescue and if I leave the door open she’ll run out and bite the first pitbull she sees right in the face. Zero fear, pretty impressive stuff.

Look at you, drunken fool trying to figure out the stock market with your small brain. I give you money on a platter and you reject it. Do not get mad at me for being able to peer into the future, glance at financial instruments, and profit handsomely from it.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED, innumerable times. I came to this House of Worship in 2019 and informed you of my intent to purchase and accumulate ETH from $100 and proceeded to do so until I sold north of $3,000. I produced a 17x return and many of you thanked me for the tip and then later on TURNED ON ME like the venomous bastards you are — at a time when I was bogged down in a trading slump after 5xing my account live for all of you ingrates inside Stocklabs.

Fast forward a year and change my account is now 12x the OG investment and my TSLA focus account is +60% and I don’t even get an email from you bastards, apologizing for slandering me for my profitable ideas.

Truth be told, I am jesting and do not expect anything from any of you. Me and my stupid ideas will expire once I lose my faculties. There will come a place and a time when I can no longer perform at this level and I’ll probably be too stubborn to ever admit it. But here and now as you read this, with Le Fly at the tender olde age of 47, I am at my pinnacle — never been better — pinned to recourd highs — and none of you sons a bitches can say otherwise.

I don’t have a list of best ideas but strong convictions on what will work well over time. I find day trading to be much more beneficial for me than buying and holding. But I realize some folks out there work for a living and cannot babysit a screen all day.

Here are some core conviction plays.

Bitcoin — it has proven to be a hedge against systemic risk. There are many reason other than that to own it — but this is the reason why I have it fixed at 7% of my portfolio.

UBER — once we figure out how to automate cars and make them fly — uber margins will explode. I love this name long term.

TSLA — Musk is the innovator of our lifetime. Even if he’s gone from the company in some mysterious poisoning or helicopter accident, I feel an autocrat like Tim Cook can step in and manage what Musk laid down just fine. If Musk remains alive, sky is the limit.

That’s it, when it comes to core trades. I do have a list of long term positions that I favor and keep for my children in their trust accounts.

Here are some of my current favorites.

CRM, NVDA, NFLX, META, AMZN, V, NUE, AXP, CAT, XOM, ADBE.

Admittedly, those are boring stocks and obvious winners. Much of what models depend on is a bull market. I hope this isn’t the case and we instead dive into a Great Depression. Nevertheless, whilst we trend higher — this is where I like my money to remain.

I hope you all had a nice pretend holiday and rested well, courtesy of the Federal Govt. Markets opened up angry and have been attempting to fool all morning. Alas, I only kept my BTC and IEP positions following my usual morning liquidations. Unfortunately, Carl is a little flaccid this morning and caused me to drawdown. Nothing too severe, off by 29bps.

I do have what I consider to be a lay up bet. The problem for me, if being honest, I will likely not profit too much from it because it requires patience and I am mostly day trading. The bet is TMF — ultra long long bonds.

The premise is as follows:

The inflation narrative is dead and will soon be replaced with FOMC easing. By the time we get to that, rates would have already crumbled to pieces. In the event of an economic downturn or market scare, the bias for rates is now LOWER. If there was a war or perhaps the high rates finally affected people other than the working class –both TLT and TMF will take off. If you just wanted to play the alpha you could buy some zero coupon bonds, like ZROZ, and wait.

This trade requires waiting. There are people out there, very evil people, who believe this entire circus is going to end one day and all that will be left are govt bonds.

Bottom Line: All western nations are heavily indebted and cannot afford to carry the interest on their burdens. The natural direction for rates is lower — not because western governments are responsible and deserve low rates — but because it’s rigged. If, for example, rates reflected the true risk of the underlying governments, all 100% debt to GDP players would have to endure the highest of rates until they got their shit together. But we do not live in a world with free markets. Markets are nationalized and the people who control the guns also control the rates, so figure it out.

So what did you get for Dad’s day? Maybe a grilling apparatus or bottle of beer and bourbon? Maybe you got a new pair of jeans or a bottle of cologne. Perhaps tonight you’ll head out to a restaurant for steaks and wine — big fat key lime pie cheesecake fat fuck dessert washed down with some cognac?

Maybe you’re gonna play some golf with other Dads and laugh heartily in between playing terribly?

Today is your day Dads — a day often discarded as trash by BIG MOTHERS DAY lobby. Men, as you know, hold families together and prevent their kids from cutting their dicks off and running around cities with rainbow dresses and dying their hair purple — stealing from Nike stores. Unfortunately, many men are too perverted to remain stoic in a single household and run about visiting different ladies of ill repute. In this day and age, with the toxic culture of degeneracy, strong fathers are at a premium and necessary counter-balance to progressive leaning women and their hare-brained ideas.

DO NOT GIVE INTO THE GLOBOHOMO and remain in your homes to tell your kids the truth and never waiver no matter the emotional toil.

OFF TO GRILL SOME MEATS!

I closed at the absolute highs for the session +113bps, gained more than 4% for the week — +nearly 46% for 2023. Instead of doing this with other people’s money that could pour upon my person extravagant riches, I do it for an audience of plebs who get confused quickly and blow themselves up inside a few weeks of trading.

Back in 2017 I was very upset, very angry — and felt with all of my feeeeeeeeelings that I no longer wanted to manage money professionally. I was so upset! My moron friends went on to enjoy the greatest bull market ever known, bask in the sun of unlimited money hacks — all the while I sought emotional comfort via blogging and chatting about my trades, anonymously, for an audience of rank amateurs.

This is my legacy and I am sticking with it!

For all of my black readers out there — Happy Juneteenth. I have no fucking idea what the holiday is and won’t bother to learn about it. I am pretty sure most of you don’t really know too much about it either. Nevertheless, enjoy the holiday and be sure to nibble on some corned cobbs.

To my white readers, Happy Father’s Day. Hopefully your terrible wives will get you a card and maybe offer you a new wrench for your fucking tool box. I wanted to head over to symphony and enjoy the music of the Gods but was met with a rebuff — since it’s all “rather boring” and one might “fall asleep” listening to such mundane music.

Alas — we’re all trying to achieve a semblance of equanimity just prior to dropping dead. I do hope before I collapse and drop dead, I could amass a great fortune and then play games with said fortune in the after-life. We all have our idiosyncrasies — and all are fine providing they do not hurt or annoy anyone else.

DO NO HARM!

For the weekend, since it is Father’s Day, I might smoke a cigar or perhaps an Estate Pipe. I bought some new tobacco and it burns rather fine. As for cocked tails, Mrs Fly bought me a book of recipes as an early gift; but I already know how to make just about anything — having gone though the phase of being a MASTER MIXOLOGIST. I’ve found, after tasting all of the different flavors, just about nothing beats a nice clean martini.

Cheers.

I bought some stocks and one 10% hedge. I am permanently bearish but like to remind myself that I really do not know what the hell is going on and that my true strength is adapting to new paradigms. To catch a top is like catching a fly with chopped sticks — not really possible. The biggest detriment to a trader is having caught a top once before — because now that fucker is going to think it was actually skill and not luck — due to ego.

My ego is secure in the fact that I can and will manifest myself higher, no matter the market, no matter my personal issues. It is a life long journey for me and when I ends, I can only hope that I have amassed enough money to buy a drone for the Army of Ukraine. Perhaps Zelensky’s grandson will use to to destroy the Kremlin or kill Russians on the street shopping for cabbage.

I am up 75bps and interested in buying stocks with strong technicals, near session highs, and exhibiting signs of going higher.