Markets are plunging — down 160 and gaining speed. Normally, I’d advise you to panic and do something rash. But oil is still strong and there are pockets of strength, such as my GNFT.
My best advice, as of now, is to relax and eat a heavily meated sandwich. There isn’t much to do anyways. Are you going to buy TVIX or TZA? I didn’t think so.
Gold looks good and so does ETH. Bonds are flat and nothing makes a lot of sense now — other than the undeniable fact that we’ve run up very fast and are entitled to a pause — before sprinting higher again.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio got into a heated debate with Joe Kernen this morning — because Ray, apparently, doesn’t think capitalism is giving everyone a fair fucking shake. Good olde Ray wants everyone to have the same opportunities that he enjoyed — such as graduating Harvard Business School and also marrying into the fucking Vanderbilt family.
You can throw all of the money in the world at people — it won’t change a single fucking thing. Don’t believe me — have a look at the school districts that enjoy overzealous funding and see if it made a dent. Ray got to where he is today because of who he is — his genetic make up. Getting into Harvard probably wasn’t by happenstance and marrying Gertrude Vanderbilt’s daughter probably didn’t hurt his prospects when he launched his fucking hedge fund back in the 1970s either.
Capitalism is a fucked up form of economy — but it’s the best we’ve got. Transferring money from one place to the next only causes friction and will never move the needle. Things are fucked now for a variety of reasons — most of which is a subtle trickle of eugenics coming out of our beloved Ivy League schools, and other top tier Universities.
But that’s a topic for another day.
What’s important to take away from this debate with “Hair Piece” Kernen is that Dalio is shamefully and unapologetically weak and also a hard core beta male — with zero solutions, only complaints and self-hatred.
FUCK OFF RAY DALIO.
Ciao.
UPDATE: Having a moment to relax and chill, I did a little legwork and learned Ray’s wife is an immigrant from Spain and is likely a distant relative to House Vanderbilt. No idea, really — don’t fucking care too.
What a wondrous morning. The sun is casting a long shadow on the lawn and the temperature is a moderate and humid 60 degrees. For GE, however, today sucks — as long term fan-boy of the company downgraded the stock and fixed a $5 price target on said shares.
“We believe many investors are underestimating the severity of the challenges and underlying risks at GE, while overestimating the value of small positives, and with a 38% move in the stock year to date, and >50% cuts to forward fundamental FCF (free cash flow) anchors, we are cutting our [price target] and moving to” underweight, wrote Tusa in a note to clients.
Tusa continued:
“The driver of the downgrade is our view that the Street is significantly over projecting the bounce in FCF in the coming years, off levels that we calculate at zero currently, as Power/Renewables remains weak, GECS (GE Capital Services) will likely consume material cash for the foreseeable future, Aviation fundamentals, as per underlying FCF, are weaker than meet the eye, while lingering sector high leverage including entitlements leaves the company vulnerable to liquidity issues in the event of a recession, for which a potentially dilutive sale of the rest of Healthcare may be needed.”
GE is the proverbial canary in the coal mine — the Lehman of this generation — the quintessential fuckery to end all fuckeries. Look for the stock to death-spiral over the next 12 months, leading the overall market into a state of abject misery and depression.
I used to obsessively watch movies — in an attempt to find truth. Truth in man, truth in the essence of living — extracting honest recollections from previous generations. Since I don’t trust much of what I read written and broadcasted today, I immersed myself in antiquity for small morsels of universal laws. After all, without order and discipline, one cannot attain happiness and certainly not live freely with grace.
Graceless living is often accompanied by wanton degeneracy, deceitfulness, sloth, and grift. If your spirit is diminished from living a bad life — it’s next to impossible to feel good on a day to day basis and that spiraling effect manifests itself in bad deeds which compound over time — making you craven and wicked.
Truth can be found more in books than anything else — since the perversion of Hollywood has limited reach in literature, profound story telling from the greats — authors who will live the test of time and continue to speak to the souls of truth seekers and people interested in understanding the essence of living.
My personal journey started with finance and it’ll likely end there. Over the years I became immersed in one thing after the next — did things that looked foolish or odd to others — but made me happy. It’s like buying a new car, or applying a fresh coat of paint — when new, it’s fresh and brimming with aspiration and hope — promise for the future. That aspiration is rooted in the belief in happiness and equanimity — peacefulness. When that new item is proven to be a false hope — it’s quickly reviled, even hated, seen as an albatross more than anything else. It’s the passion that drives us to these extremes — the emotional investment wears thin and creates indifference and frustration.
All of these emotions and cycles repeat themselves over and over in every facet of your lives — careers, relationships, investments, hobbies etc. I haven’t found true peace yet and sometimes find myself falling back into old bad habits, exhibiting anger and frustration, or favoring comfort over industry.
Some people drink away their pain or mask their unhappiness with delusions — fantasies so strong that one cannot tell the difference between real or fake anymore. There is an unmistakable immaturity in brooding in melancholy — wasting time on things non-central to your lives — an opinion thrusted upon you by a careless malcontent, or a severely flawed family member. It took me a long time to realize this and truly accept it and not just say it — but the opinions of others are really not that important.
Take, for example, F. Scott Fitzgerald’s Gatsby — a commercial failure upon its release — now considered a masterpiece with profound meaning and everlasting qualities.
I’m not an expert on living and cannot speak to you with authority on how you might find equanimity, but I do know that finding passion in something makes the days go quicker and the mind run vigorously. Break your routine and move outside of your comfort zones to experience new things — and maybe you’ll accidentally crash into something that changes your life for the better. You won’t know, lest you deviate from the norms.
I often marvel at parents who gracefully accept accolades for the accomplishments of their children. While they’re carrying on about how they paid for their tutoring and made sure their little offsprings studied good and hard for their examinations, my mind scatters off track and conjures up foggy scenarios where those children were raised in the jungles of Japan or greater Asia and scored the same scores on the same damned examinations. In other words, and this is a secret to some, no matter how much effort you put into your kids — they’ll always end up the same — barring interferences such as trauma, conflict and of course debilitating poverty. Eighty percent of IQ is DNA, which means your job, as a fuckhead parent, is limited to feeding them and providing them with an environment that is safe and conducive to learning. If you have an idiot gene pool — don’t bother pressuring junior about the books. Not happening.
The same static logic applies to the market now. It’s bound to go up — because the people with the printing presses have discovered a way to avoid economic cycles. While you’re there, like a moron, sifting thru charts and pretending to have expertise, stocks are pointing to one direction: higher. After they run up, you’ll take credit and consider yourselves to be gurus — but you’re not. You’re just fucking idiots trading in an idiot tape, clever enough to find other idiots to trust you enough to navigate the rough and dead seas of post Fed interventionist economic uni-cycle.
Look at how stupid all of the Tesla bears are — barreling short into a fire. Getting burned up now.
You thought the stock was going lower…now look at you.
This is our story — the bull market that would not stop — could not stop. Retarded Investment Advisors continue to grow and with it their egos — a willingness to display smug condescension courtesy of a Fed induced bull market. Make no mistake, without the Fed bending and groveling to markets, this rally you see here would not exist.
Now we march on — bayonets pointed sharply into the thick fog. Once over the hill, at record highs, you will see a sprint of magnanimous proportions — bears will be routed and strewn across the cold gray pavement bloodied and tattered to pieces.
Here is a momentum screen out of Exodus — using our algorithms. All of these stocks are presently overbought and tend to jump higher with a high degree of confidence afterwards. You’d be wise to buy a basket and hold them for a duration of 10 days.
I had a big day, even bigger in my fracking stocks. As WTI curls higher and narrows the difference between $60 and $70 — you will see an unmistakable fervor for companies servicing horizontal fracking.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know a sure thing when I see it. There are some things about the market that are hard, some very easy. We’re ~2% off record highs on the Nasdaq — a little bit more than that on small caps. This is the easiest money you’ll ever make — buying into the whirring haze of euphoria, spring settling in and the flowers beginning to bloom. Humans are god damned idiots, mostly. But some of us are smart and are able to create beautiful things — create beautiful things like V shaped recoveries and NEW record highs.
Once we hit new highs, all of the price memory will be wiped clean and stocks can gallantly jog towards new levels — remote levels only dreamt about whilst on DMT trips.
Dow 30,000?
Sure, why the fuck not.
The world is your oyster lad. Go and run towards the crude trade — as Brent barrels towards $70. Horizontal frackers are your friends. Embrace the hydraulic fracturing sand and chemicals and sop it all up.
The last vestiges of hope and promise that everything will soon be destroyed have been crashed against the rocks this morning. The March payrolls data, the jobs report, came in better than expected.
March Nonfarm Payrolls 196K vs 170K
March Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs 3.8%
March Average Hourly Earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.2%
As a result, futures doubled their gains and everyone is merrily pleased with their portfolios. Any questions? Are you still too stupid to understand what happened in October-December was yet another rouse in a long rich history of rouses — an attempt to fleece Joe Public from his shares?
Markets don’t dip on Fridays. Enjoy the trading session.
I have to keep this short — not because I’m disinterested in reaching out, shilling for my premium service, or because I have few things to say. Quite the contrary — as I’m fully capable of doing all of that indefinitely. But I have a job at home now — chauffeur — ferrying people to and fro — patiently waiting for their shopping experiences to be completed and enjoyed. Cucked the fuck out and beat the fuck down.
The hostile heat endured from Oct-Dec of 2018 tested the Exodus algorithms and now we have all of that beautiful data to cross reference against. This is important because it was the very worst technical environment for stocks since 2008. That is not my opinion — but a fact that was measured by my algorithms.
So what do we have now?
My 3 month algorithm is a fucking printing press. I told you this would happen and now it’s here. Soon, the 3 mo algo will move to the 6, then 12, and finally 36. Just know, we registered OS last week and have gone straight up since then — nailed to the exact fucking day.
Now go fuck yourselves and drown in your bullshit wine and charts. “The Fly” has work to do, people to ferry, liberties to be pardoned.
I spent the majority of my day in a forlorn state as an errand boy — ferrying dogs to and fro the barber — grocery shopping, ferrying in laws from train station to my house, ferrying others to and fro. Meanwhile, stocks threatened to trade down. The best amongst them were off — led lower by SAAS stocks. At the session lows, software stocks were down by more than 4.5%. They ended down just 3.4%.
It was a bad day, by most measures. Sixty percent of stocks traded up and 40% of you are sad right now — but do not fear the market. It is your friend. Be loyal to it and it will grant you great fortunes. Betray it, and it will ruin you and your family for generations.
I don’t care what any of you think — meaningless refuse drifting endlessly in a sea of morons.
