Don’t Short Into the Perception of Inflationary Times

Stock market 101.

Deflation is bad for stocks, inflation good.

Because the Fed is opting to inflate while markets and the economy are doing well, the perception is for rapid inflation, as seen in the TIPs, gold, dollar, and stock values.

As such, you cannot, even for a day, trade against this perception and think you could win. Stocks will and have remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

Into the bell, I bought an IPO from today, which caters to this way of thinking, and I also bought a few Chinese burritos, a value play, and I booked a profit in UPWK.

Here are some of my recent trades — nothing is left out.

DRIP +28%
ROKU +2.5%
TVIX +5.7%
TZA +2%
FAZ +6%
TQQQ +4.5%
NUGT +21%
ROKU +6.4%
(DUST -2.9%)
AYX +5.4%
ZM +8.5%
PINS +9.5%
(PAGS -0.5%)
(SFIX -3.5%)
FAS +0.3%
(BE -3.1%)
LK +8.1%
CRWD +7.2%
SOLY +7.9%
NUGT +8.3%
SAIL +5.9%
CHWY -5.4%
ZS +2.4%
UPWK +2.6%

Trades are only posted in Exodus now, so sorry.

What the fuck is going on here? The NY Fed, the bastion of solidity in finance, felt it necessary to use their platform for LGBTQ awareness. Pray tell me, what the fuck for?

Here is the bizarre series of Tweets sent out by the NY Fed today. So tolerant.

To celebrate #PrideMonth, we have a special moment of our own to share… The first time a Pride flag has ever flown from our @NewYorkFed offices. ???? #MomentsOfPride #Pride #WorldPride #Stonewall50 pic.twitter.com/emtAlveBw8

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 3, 2019

The basis of the LGBTQ+ community is so fundamentally basic to human nature: equality, self-love, and acceptance. I find it no coincidence that synonyms of the word ‘gay’ are cheerful, jolly, and vivacious. It’s a human right to live an enjoyable life. #MomentsOfPride #PrideMonth pic.twitter.com/c7YNpO2IFb

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 4, 2019

My advice to LGBTQ+ in the workforce? Take time to know yourself, and who you want to be — connect to this vision and be able to bring that to the table, both in your professional and personal life. When you like you, it’s much easier for other people to like you.#MomentsOfPride pic.twitter.com/PRzuUi3SiH

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 4, 2019

My favorite part of the legacy of Stonewall is the response of the gay community to being unfairly persecuted. They came together and sang songs. Although riots erupted after, this event triggered a turning point to encourage acceptance of individual differences.#MomentsOfPride pic.twitter.com/2ehSRstHed

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 4, 2019

Hi, I’m Samuel. I grew up in Baltimore City, Maryland, and I’m a huge Star Wars fan. I love the movies, and the novels and cartoons as well. Star Wars NOT Star Trek (they are in fact different!). I’m a big fan of bebop jazz, and enjoy going to jazz venues in NYC. #Pride pic.twitter.com/h6Evu44Ryg

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 6, 2019

I love traveling, and I’ve been to over 30 countries in Africa, the Americas, Asia & Europe. I’ve never met a country I didn’t like. At home and abroad, I try to support as many LGBTQ+ owned businesses and attend events that recognize the LGBTQ+ community. #Pride #MomentsOfPride pic.twitter.com/L1rAPGE81l

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 6, 2019

My advice to LGBTQ+ in the workforce? Always know the value of your contributions, and your ability to influence outcomes. You bring a fresh and interesting perspective that your non-LGBTQ+ peers may not always see. #MomentsOfPride #Pride #PrideMonth #Stonewall50 pic.twitter.com/t0IGkLNqEc

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 6, 2019

Stonewall's legacy is important because it makes clear the challenges and obstacles that LGBTQ+ members experienced. At work, in their community, and among family members. It must have been extremely difficult. My road hasn’t been easy, but I’m happy I can be me. #Stonewall50 pic.twitter.com/htjNCgcOzk

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 6, 2019

Hi, I’m David. I grew up on the beaches of Southwest Florida. I’m passionate about travel, photography and scuba diving. Some recent highlights are Japan, New Zealand & Cuba. Next year, my husband and I are booked to return to the Maldives for our 5th anniversary. #MomentsOfPride pic.twitter.com/2bTfKx6PAH

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 11, 2019

My husband & I bring our whole selves to everything we do. Living as out gay men, in a bi-racial marriage within a multi-faith diverse family, we are cognizant that we celebrate ourselves and those that came before us simply by being ourselves. #MomentsOfPride #Pride #Stonewall50 pic.twitter.com/DyiL26HUu2

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 11, 2019

My advice to LGBTQ+ in the workforce? When identifying potential employers, ask questions to ensure you’ve found an employer that unquestionably supports you bringing your whole self to work. Get involved with employee resource networks & seek LGBTQ+ mentors. #Stonewall50 #Pride pic.twitter.com/M8LKg8y7Vr

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 11, 2019

As a young lawyer at a global investment firm, I was able to be out and join a LGBTQIA+ resource group. Five years ago, I married the love of my life. We are beneficiaries of the civil rights movement, and we’re PROUD to be ambassadors of the Stonewall legacy. #Stonewall50 #Pride pic.twitter.com/jShLL0v6T9

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 11, 2019

#Stonewall was the beginning of ???????? ?? and ???????? ?? for LGBTQ+ rights. Our community is well known for being good at mobilizing in support of each other during crisis. This all stems from Stonewall’s legacy. #MomentsOfPride #Stonewall50 #Pride pic.twitter.com/jE7RFoGnHZ

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 18, 2019

Hi, I’m Gil. I grew up in the DC Metro area. I have a degree in Sociology, and find people and cultures fascinating. I’m an avid cross fitter, and enjoy renovating my 100 yr old home. I also TNVR (trap, neuter, vaccinate, and return) feral cats in my neighborhood. #MomentsofPride pic.twitter.com/xj5zFJTM0h

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 20, 2019

I’m such a bad lesbian. I haven’t been to a march in years. I went to a Pride parade a few years ago, but I got the date wrong. I traveled from NJ to NYC, and couldn’t figure out where everyone was, until, of course, I realized my mistake. #Pride #PrideMonth pic.twitter.com/sqbmJLK4OZ

— New York Fed (@NewYorkFed) June 20, 2019

We get it NY Fed — you’re all really gay and proud and you don’t have the balls to stand up to Trump and will soon be cutting interest rates with unemployment at 3.6% and markets at record highs.

Take out your freemason aprons and take it all in — the Grandeur of the American empire and all of its trimmings.

This just in now from Trump, the President of the United States.

Agenda: WAR

BREAKING: Dow, S&P 500 drop to session lows as Trump comments on Iran, saying "you'll soon find out" if U.S. will strike Iran and says they made a very bad mistake. https://t.co/brmXjhJ1ZT pic.twitter.com/kxa7cwcfN0

— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) June 20, 2019

Iran made a very big mistake!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 20, 2019

INDEUD.

Also, in case you were thinking about selling short.

President Trump says meeting with Chinese President Xi has been set up

— TheStreet (@TheStreet) June 20, 2019

BUY VALUE, believe me.

I know it’s all so annoying how something overtly manipulated or even staged can exist and not be checked. But why bother getting frustrated over things you cannot control?

Since Election Day 2016, Stocks up almost 50%, Stocks gained 9.2 Trillion Dollars in value, and more than 5,000,000 new jobs added to the Economy. @LouDobbs If our opponent had won, there would have been a market crash, plain and simple! @TuckerCarlson @seanhannity @IngrahamAngle

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 20, 2019

Markets have flexed to new record highs this morning, with oil and gold blowing full steam ahead — shorts getting twisted and mangled and dumped into sewer pipes.

What was that dip all about again? Oh yeah, China trade war. NEVER HAPPENED.

See pal, that’s what the market is and you’re nothing. Good Father? Fuck you — go home and play with your kids.

Incidentally, some of you are thinking about shorting stocks now. Why bother? I mean, really — why fucking bother?

The dollar is crashing lower again. Oil is up 5%. You simply cannot short the tape.

I sold ZS for +2.4%, another one of my overnight gambits.

As you were.

What more can I say, other than get your fucking rally hats out.

Here is the full rundown this very busy Wednesday evening.

The Islamic Republic News Agency said Thursday the drone was hit when it entered Iranian airspace near the Kouhmobarak district in southern Iran’s Hormozgan province.

The U.S. military declined to immediately comment.

Nasdaq futures are +65.

WTI +1.3%, and the 10 yr treasury yield is plunging, now under 2%.

And here’s the main story. The dollar is getting the business vs the euro, down by 0.4% and today’s retarded Fed meeting is finally resonating with people — getting them to believe inflation might be a very real concern.

GOLD HAS BROKEN A 7 YEAR CONSOLIDATION AND IS NOW +2.6% AT $1,383. Wow.

Yes, I’m presently long AU and NGD. “The Fly” wins again.

Good news everyone — The Federal Reserve removed the word “patient” from their statement — implying they might cut interest rates with markets at record fucking highs. This makes all the sense in the world and I hope President Trump is pleased with Jerome Powell now. We really need the market to run higher by another 10,000 points, else I don’t know we’ll all do with ourselves.

This is the world we’re in now, parsing through the statements of assholes for the express purposes of extreme profit. We will take these gains and buy jet planes and cocaine, and hookers, and gold watches — merrily swimming in a sea of nothing towards the grave — bobbing and weaving the whole time with high powered attorneys and accountants to increase our worth and moat — hoping to die before the IRS gets a chance to figure it all out.

What a life!

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to keep the benchmark rate in a target range of 2.25% to 2.5%.
The action sets up a possible confrontation between Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates.

The Fed dropped the word “patient” to describe its approach to policy.

The central bank also left the door open somewhat to future cuts.

Eight members favor one cut this year while the same number voted in favor of the status quo and one still wants a rate hike.

This is what you wanted — isn’t it? Gold is pressing the fuck higher and bond yields sinking again. I can feel the anxiety in the pit of my stomach — short sellers sweating it out in a white knuckled panic, wondering the meaning of life. I have a clue for you. We’re in a period of effervescent progress and nothing can stop it. You can try — but you’ll fail. We have a warrior class of people in charge of America now and they’re only interested in growth and higher stocks. The second the market trends sideways — BAM! they do something to get the electricity generated again.

I got boned on my pick from yesterday and sold CHWY for a 5% overnight loss. I will try my hand at this shit again.

I’m quite pleased with the progress in the olde man sector, however. I own a fuckload of value and that’s the place to be with the incredible shrinking yield curve in effect.

Signing off now. Fuck off.

Value stocks are still the place to be. Today a lot of growth stocks are being uprooted, but the market is barely down. Imagine of the market was really down how much you’d be fucked by now.

See pal, life is a series of gambles and “The Fly” is simply better at the stock market ones. In other aspects of life, such as home improvements or destruction, auto-care, and any sort of tech help for websites — I am literally cursed. The Gods only give me these great gifts — because they take away so much from other areas of my life.

Other people have it all — I only have the pen and the keyboard, nothing else.

I am not going to trade ahead of the Fed — because I don’t need to. I have an overnight trade that will be sold today, but it’s down now and I was hoping it could rally a little. I know hope normally isn’t an investment stratagem — but today it is.

Most people I know don’t care anymore about the Fed, or anything else for that matter. Nihilism is strong in America — after a decade of unbelievable fuckery. The timeline was altered and changed forever when the banks were bailed out in 2008. I’ve always argued for it — because who in their right mind would want to die right away, if you could delay the inevitable or even suspend it indefinitely?

Not only have we delayed the inevitable, but we’re thriving now and some people just can’t to grips with it — because it’s new and different and they do not believe printing money is a solution to moral hazard.

Speaking of hazards, I ventured off into my DVR last night and perused a film I had recorded months ago — The Toast of NY. I’m a big fan of the silver screen and like just about all Cary Grant films. This one was a pleasant surprised because it was about Jim Fisk, a famed robber baron who made his fortune dicking around with stocks. The movie told the tale of when Fisk, Drew, and Gould schemed to steal $6m from Commodore Vanderbilt. If you’re looking for an old school Wall Street flick — go watch The Toast of NY. It’s a true story.

Futures are strong and today Powell bends the knee to Trump, or gets fired.

When Federal Reserve officials meet this week, they are expected to clear the way for a July interest rate cut by downgrading their economic forecast, tweaking the language in their statement and reducing their interest rate forecasts.

The Fed is expected to remove the word “patient” from its statement, signaling that it is ready to move on interest rate cuts to help the U.S. economy make it through a period of slower growth and the potential impacts of trade wars.

Fed funds futures are pointing to odds of about 80% for a July cut and about 20% for a June cut.

No whining and no complaining about things we can’t control. Man up and trade.

At around 10am I was alerted to a Showing Time request for my house at 2pm. This set off loud and buzzing alarms inside House Fly, as Mrs Fly panicked to launder the sheets and scrub the walls and make sure everything was tidy enough to be seen by complete strangers, perusing our home with extreme criticism and sincere circumspection — for the purposes of purchase. A domino of mental confusion gripped her and caused an avalanche of emotions to sloppily spill out and erupt into an inferno of rage and anger. Much to her chagrin, I opted to shower and then garden — taking the highest road if you will — because gentlemen of my cloth and leisure do not partake in “inconsequential discussions.” Catch phrases such as that, I’ve learned, work wonders for my relationship — a toxic recipe of self-destruction brought on by the fact that I’m constantly seeking chaos and interminable folly.

I made good solid coin today and have come back home for a brief period of rest and respite. I will soon be on the road again, acting as a butler for House Fly, doing this and that, getting things done productively and without complaint. The markets enjoy going higher and I am in no position to argue with it. It was tempting to fade the rally for an opening tick lower — but I decided that would be a dogs shit trade and opted for something more degenerate. The IPO market is red hot.

Trade accordingly.

Here are my last trades, most of which were overnight holds.

DRIP +28%
ROKU +2.5%
TVIX +5.7%
TZA +2%
FAZ +6%
TQQQ +4.5%
NUGT +21%
ROKU +6.4%
(DUST -2.9%)
AYX +5.4%
ZM +8.5%
PINS +9.5%
(PAGS -0.5%)
(SFIX -3.5%)
FAS +0.3%
(BE -3.1%)
LK +8.1%
CRWD +7.2%
SOLY +7.9%
NUGT +8.3%
SAIL +5.9%

I’ve stopped expecting things from people a long time ago. I just resign myself to destiny now, toiling away, scrubbing the decks and firing the cannons indiscriminately into enemy quarters.

This Trump tweet about meeting President Xi is lighting markets on fire, and also Peter Schiff’s head.

This is all so stupid — but you cannot hate the players — just the game.

Separately, and I know some of you FUCKERS love this — I just kicked out my overnight trades CRWD and SOLY for +7.2% and +7.9%, respectively. Also, I sold NUGT and SAIL for a quick +8.3% and +5.9%, respectively. Fly’s high IQ trades are for Exodus members only, so sorry.