I’ve been doing this long enough to know a sure thing when I see it. There are some things about the market that are hard, some very easy. We’re ~2% off record highs on the Nasdaq — a little bit more than that on small caps. This is the easiest money you’ll ever make — buying into the whirring haze of euphoria, spring settling in and the flowers beginning to bloom. Humans are god damned idiots, mostly. But some of us are smart and are able to create beautiful things — create beautiful things like V shaped recoveries and NEW record highs.
Once we hit new highs, all of the price memory will be wiped clean and stocks can gallantly jog towards new levels — remote levels only dreamt about whilst on DMT trips.
Dow 30,000?
Sure, why the fuck not.
The world is your oyster lad. Go and run towards the crude trade — as Brent barrels towards $70. Horizontal frackers are your friends. Embrace the hydraulic fracturing sand and chemicals and sop it all up.
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Vix poleaxed. C’mon SPY.
https://youtu.be/EbI0cMyyw_M
The market doesn’t believe this will last:
http://www.cboe.com/delayedquote/futures-quotes
Thanks. Maybe I’ll look into it. I have no experience with this sector. Must research, if I can find the time. No guarantee that I’ll understand it.
As we get closer to ATHs, the news becomes even more important, as that will determine whether we richochet off or crash through: either move will likely have 5% follow-through.
I will say that this market has been surprisingly resilient, with the only major difference between now and last Fall is the FED rolling over. That brings the natural question: did they roll over becuase they sense future econmic slowdown (long-bonds are up today) or are they just succumbing to political and market pressure?
For the bullmarket to be sustained, we need resolution on a few fronts:
1) favorable outcome to Chinese trade (most likely neutral outcome)
2) retail sales have to stop declining
3) 2nd half earnings recovery (see #1 and #2)
In my opinion, the retail report is more imprtant than the jobs report. However, the jobs report is more of a leading indicator. In other words, if the jobs report is improving, then the retail report *should* improve as well, but if it isn’t, then that is bearish overall.
BTW, the last 2 columns Table 2 (page 5) of the reatil report is the one you should be paying attention to (Quarter to Quarter percentage change), as that factors in whne the revision to the previosu minth and the latest month move in different directions.
My intuition is that if you are not careful, we are being set up for a fall.
The hold up at the moment- OIH needs to break out and SMH needs new highs. That should bust it open.
People may be waiting to see which one they will ride.
It’s good for the bulls to have uncertanties on the table. Markets love to climb walls of worry. Once all the good news is baked in, much of the climb may be over. That’s when you get “That exuberance.”
more QE .. let’s blow up another bubble!
And lower rates. Make Trump look good ’til 11/20. All that matters.
Rather than watching my profit melt away today I locked it in near the high. That may be the market we’re in until we get some earnings and guidance. I’ll adjust depending on how we close.
Low volume on a strong news day does not inspire confidence, although OIH & GUSH made a move toward new leadership. That will be big if the market co-operates.
For the next week or so I’ll likely day trade 3x ETFs and options. Looks higher but I don’t trust it.
I believe that that Hillary pic is of her in front of an adoring and cheering crowd of neocons where she had just said: “Not only did we kill him …we sodomized him first!”
Yea, also overconfidence at its finest!