About the Markets and Fridays

Good morning lads. Don’t drink that coffee too fast, otherwise you might burn your lips off.

Trump is out talking shit again about trading deals without proof. Futures are higher, but very soon will be lower.

“It’s happening, it’s happening fast and I think things probably are going to happen with China fast because I cannot imagine that they can be thrilled with thousands of companies leaving their shores for other places,” Trump said during remarks at the White House, providing no evidence of such an Exodus.

When markets break down and have a hard time gaining upwards steam, they fail often and rarely, if ever, will they ascend on Fridays. Hence the phrase applies here “markets do not bottom on Fridays.” You might not believe it now — but you will by this afternoon.

The big story today isn’t about stocks — but cryptos (dot dot dot) surging higher. My ELF coin is up 21% and I couldn’t be more pleased. Truth is, total market cap for all ICOs is only $250m, still down $500m from the highs. I think once BTC breaks $10,000, we will begin to see the light at the end of this very dark tunnel — which is “new all time highs” ahead.

I’m here afflicted by allergies, allergic to the earth and the air, barreling into my birthday — which is tomorrow. I’ll be turning 43, but I look and feel 100. Something about turning 40 sucks the life out of you — and it has only gotten worse in recent years. Part of the reason why I decided to move from here is to change things up a bit — perhaps find a place to live that brings me comfort and peace. We’ll see about that. For now, prepping to sell the house has been hell on earth.

Cheers to better times and always remember — markets do not bottom on Fridays.

You might be tempted to get long oil here — but you’d be a fool to do so. WTI has topped and with it the entire market. Trump’s trade war is getting worse and nothing can save stocks now.

Observe the frown.

Boy is that grizzly.

I just sold out of ROKU for a quick 2.5% gain — because I am both scared and greedy — greedy to maximize my gains in 3x short instruments. Into the bell, I will INCREASE my short exposure.

Save yourselves and join the league of gentlemen inside Exodus and navigate the storms to come with poise.

Good day.

TLT is hitting fresh 52 week highs today, while oil stocks are down more than 4%.

The drubbing in oil is starting to have an effect on HYG — which is lower by 0.57%.

The 10yr is down a staggering 8bps to 2.31%, fresh lows. This of course is good news for dividend payers like ED, TR, and DLR — which is why I bought them yesterday. Valuation expansion is the buzzword for value stocks — an area of the market that should be protected with rates going down.

The news out of China is getting antagonistic.

“If the U.S. would like to keep on negotiating it should, with sincerity, adjust its wrong actions. Only then can talks continue,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.

We have a rich environment for summer doldrums.

I’m excessively rich today thanks to my DRIP, TVIX, and FAZ positions. Even my ROKU is higher, which is arguably the best growth name out there now. Even my doubled sized LK, Chinese coffee piece of shit, is higher. My birthday is on the 25th of May and I couldn’t ask for a better present — me sacking you and crushing your bones into dust.

The big story of the day is oil — getting beaten the fuck out. Everyone is gonna want a piece of my DRIP today.

UPDATE: The latest U.S. actions on trade are preventing negotiations with Beijing from proceeding, China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday.

“If the U.S. would like to keep on negotiating it should, with sincerity, adjust its wrong actions. Only then can talks continue,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.

I’m not falling for this shit again. Every time the market looks like it wants to tap out — the stock Gods enliven this cadaver and reanimates it. I want the market to really burn down, hard, and without pause. I’d like to see it crash 10,000 points for my birthday — but we can’t always get what we want, can we? As a point in fact, we very rarely get what we want. We settle for what’s available and carry on and toil. After we’re done toiling, we pay for our burials and dissipate into the earth.

I have meetings this morning, so I’ll be brief.

Don’t panic, unless you see HYG and JNK following the marker lower. You will first see this happening in the oil market, which are very weak. After that, you’ll see oil stocks crater, 4-5%, then it’ll hit the bonds market.

After that blows out, look for leveraged loans to fuck themselves — SRLN.

The one thing you can monitor closely is TLT and if that fucker keeps going up — you’ll know something is wrong. A bad feeling is often followed up by bad stock action and higher gold. So watch gold too.

Like I said, I’m not falling for this shit again. Nasdaq futures are down 90, but will probably jimmy higher immediately after opening for trade. Trump is a bastard bull market dick-sucker and I hope Mnuchin or Kudlow gets bored of jerking off markets for you so we can have a proper collapse, one for the ages — so that I can put cash to work and buy all of your margin liquidations.

It’s just more fun this way.

Towards the end of trade I bought some TR, ED, and DLR. I did so because I expect old man stocks to do well in a low rate environ. Listen to me now — the market is on the precipice of complete annihilation. President Orange is soon to chimp out so hard, President Xi is bound to open his own Twitter account and tell him to fuck off.

I am aptly prepared, cash, inverse ETFs, old man stocks — the works!

The only thing I’m lamenting now is this fucking Chinese coffee shoppe nonsense — LK — knifing lower as if the entire country stopped consuming coffee. I averaged down today and the stock plunged for a second time after I bought it. This is getting ridiculous. I should’ve stopped out — but instead I knuckled down and ate more.

Nothing can save you — not even the black flag. After you’re good and dead, your bones will be crushed and flesh decomposed and turned into fertilizer for my crops.

The 10yr is -3bps today, after it was revealed the Fed has zero interest in hiking rates — even if the economy gains steam.

This is particularly good news for old man stocks — companies who rely upon cheap sources of capital to make acquisitions, do share buybacks, and other forms of chicanery.

Markets are barely down. For now, I’m sitting on lots of cash, waiting for the voices in my head to tell me where to go.

Oil has collapsed and is heading by way of the dodo-bird. I am the DRIP God.

I bought TLRY this morning.

My CRON is working fine — bought it yesterday.

DTEA — sitting and waiting for some cannabis news.

SILK — new highs, dead volume.

ROKU — just bought yesterday, looking for hundy roll.

FAZ-mobile — goes fast when it gets going. It’s gonna get going soon.

GROW — I forgot why I’m long.

TVIX — panic hedge.

SWCH — new purchase from yesterday.

LK — just averaged down. New basis in high $18s.

Yesterday it was Morgan Stanley, today it’s Citi. Please explain to me why these analysts feel it necessary to shill for headlines with nonsensical bear case scenario extreme price targets? Let me be clear, Citi still has a price target of $191 on TSLA, but thinks the stock can hit $36 if everything goes wrong.

I think Citi has a greater chance of going to zero than TSLA to $36. After all, should we get another credit crisis and Citi is forced to mark down assets to extremely low levels, they probably won’t have enough capital to remain solvent.

Here are the notes.

Source: CNBC

Morgan Stanley caused a stir on Tuesday when star auto analyst Adam Jonas put out a “bear case” scenario that envisioned Tesla’s shares plummeting to just $10.

And now a Citigroup Global Markets analyst is out with another shocking scenario for Elon Musk’s electric car maker.

Citi’s Itay Michaeli sees increasing probability the shares plummet more than 80% to $36.

“Maintain sell/high risk as the risk/reward still appears negatively skewed despite the recent capital raise and stock pullback, mainly on lingering demand/FCF (free cash flow) concerns,” the analyst said in a note late Tuesday.

“Reducing estimates to reflect the recent capital raise, Q1 results/guide and our own inputs.”

The analyst cut his regular price target on Tesla to $191 from $238 by adjusting the probabilities of three scenarios, seeing a decreasing chance of a big rally in the stock and an increasing chance of a share collapse. He sees a 40% chance (up from 35%) of a “full bear” scenario of $36, a 55% chance of a “moderate bull” scenario of $253 and a 5% chance (down from 10%) of a “full bull case” of $760.

“So the recent reported internal memo, which seemingly called into question prior guidance, didn’t help the risk/reward calculus. The implications can be serious, since an automaker’s balance sheet is always subject to the confidence ‘spiral’ risk,” Michaeli said.

Don’t worry TSLA longs — there is still a 5% chance the stock can hit $760.

TSLA is -3% in pre-market.

What sordid lies out of the fake news financial media. We have already been told that debilitating tariffs on the world’s fastest growing major economy is GOOD for America — because it brings jobs back and also makes steel plants sprout out from the ground — and it makes coal miners live longer with the black lung.

According to the CNBC degenerates’ poll, nearly three quarters of all businesses said a trade war with China, arguably their biggest growth market, is having a negative impact on their business. Well, if that were true, the stock market wouldn’t be going up — now would it?

Nearly three-fourths, or 74.9%, of almost 250 respondents to a survey held from May 16 to May 20 said the increases in U.S. and Chinese tariffs are having a negative impact on their business, according to a report released Wednesday by AmCham Shanghai and AmCham China in Beijing.

About one in five said they have experienced increased inspections and slower customs clearance.

The greatest impact of the combined tariffs is decreased demand for products, followed by increased manufacturing costs, according to the joint AmCham survey.

Obviously, this is the handy work of Hillary Clinton and her bandits.

In other news, it appears the rascals inside Syria are at it again — gassing their own people for no reason at all. This is equal to American police officers indiscriminately pulling over people on the road and beating them, or even shooting them with their pistols. If that would ever happen, I’m sure we’d attack ourselves for such grave crimes against humanity.

“Unfortunately, we continue to see signs that the Assad regime may be renewing its use of chemical weapons, including an alleged chlorine attack in northwest Syria on the morning of May 19,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement.

Ortagus said the alleged attack was part of a violent campaign by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces violating a ceasefire that has protected several million civilians in the greater Idlib area.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has twice bombed Syria over Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons.

Now with Iran on the butcher’s block readying to be sliced and diced, I’m sure the sages at the War Department have a package deal in mind to tie up both Syria and Iran at once. After it’s all said and done, we’d free the entire Middle East from dictators and strong men who kill women and children for sport. As a wonderful democracy, we should never sit by idly watching madmen mustard gas babies in their cribs. How would you like it if someone came to your housing tenement and mustard gassed your entire floor? I bet you’d want the Housing Police to shoot those people, or at a minimum disable their cameras to beat the assailants into a permanent paralysis.

Futures were lower before the specter of more war was announced. Since then, futures turned brighter and American spirits rose like a waft of sweetly burned tobacco emanating throughout the balmy night skies.

Vegans woke up today to a bowl of mueslix and apples — thinking they too would make money in their BYND positions. Nothing could be further from the truth.

As we speak, a cordon of fate is wrapped around the vegan share price and a collapse is almost an assured outcome. Trading at 51x sales, one could make a strong beefy argument for a 90% decline in the share price. Not only is this stock over priced, but the entire concept is faux.

Once the shroud of hypo-feminine brainwashing is lifted from men and they realize being a vegan is literally the worst lifestyle any person could manage to conceptualize, they’ll throw away those Alpo smelling dog food “burgers” and reclaim their positions on this flat planet as fierce eating alpha male Apex predator carnivores.

It’s not important to spare the lives of animals, since they are inferior to man. We can eat them because they haven’t invented the wheel yet. Along that thinking, Europeans sacked America because the Natives hadn’t invented the wheel either. If the English were hungry enough and needed to survive, they would’ve ate all of the natives in America instead of just wasting their meat in senseless massacres.

What I’m trying to say is BYND got ramshackled today and the selling has only just begun. I’d expect shares to immediately slide into the $60s this week, led by tall and muscular men eating beef jerkies, imposing their will on the weaker Vegan underclass — who might as well be considered ‘virtual meat’ for the market now — to be eaten at discretion.