iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,430 Blog Posts

Don’t Panic Until You See These Things Happening

UPDATE: The latest U.S. actions on trade are preventing negotiations with Beijing from proceeding, China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday.

“If the U.S. would like to keep on negotiating it should, with sincerity, adjust its wrong actions. Only then can talks continue,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.

I’m not falling for this shit again. Every time the market looks like it wants to tap out — the stock Gods enliven this cadaver and reanimates it. I want the market to really burn down, hard, and without pause. I’d like to see it crash 10,000 points for my birthday — but we can’t always get what we want, can we? As a point in fact, we very rarely get what we want. We settle for what’s available and carry on and toil. After we’re done toiling, we pay for our burials and dissipate into the earth.

I have meetings this morning, so I’ll be brief.

Don’t panic, unless you see HYG and JNK following the marker lower. You will first see this happening in the oil market, which are very weak. After that, you’ll see oil stocks crater, 4-5%, then it’ll hit the bonds market.

After that blows out, look for leveraged loans to fuck themselves — SRLN.

The one thing you can monitor closely is TLT and if that fucker keeps going up — you’ll know something is wrong. A bad feeling is often followed up by bad stock action and higher gold. So watch gold too.

Like I said, I’m not falling for this shit again. Nasdaq futures are down 90, but will probably jimmy higher immediately after opening for trade. Trump is a bastard bull market dick-sucker and I hope Mnuchin or Kudlow gets bored of jerking off markets for you so we can have a proper collapse, one for the ages — so that I can put cash to work and buy all of your margin liquidations.

It’s just more fun this way.

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6 comments

  1. numbersgame

    You’re right, but take a look at those indicators you mentioned: TLT has been climbing for 10 months, and HYG pre-market is testing major support at $86.

    I’ll be watching the VIX 2 hours from now.

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  2. ferd

    When it really hits the fan, TLT goes down.

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    • numbersgame

      Eventually, but probably at least a decade away from that scenario.

      Think about these two questions:
      (1) What would cause the US to default?
      (2) Are there signs of impending high inflation other than asset prices?

      Also, tallest dwarf:
      You think 2-3% interest on Treasuries is too low?
      You want Japanes or Swiss bonds paying zero?
      Euro bonds with a currency that may not be around in 10 years?
      Chinese bonds guranteed by a Communist government?

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  3. edge

    The very wealthy are still running things, and they have tons of cash. Anything can happen. Crash? Rally? Damned if I know.

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  4. og

    What if the White House just shuts down?

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  5. jbandy

    Sometimes the smartest trade is the simplest one–short semis (SMH) and China (FXI).

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