Back From an Afternoon Sojourn, EAGERLY Waiting Monday’s Crash

I woke up and was instantly made butler of the residence. My job entailed cooking, cleaning, and also chaffering the residents of House Fly in and around Princeton, NJ. We visited numerous farms and took a quick opportunity to see how cheese was made for the thousandth time. I spotted a wine tasting room and partook. It was just like Napa, minus the quality and cache.

My lunch consisted of a tin of Virginia peanuts that I bought and a cider donut.

After the food job ended, we had to explore the area for “articles of decor”, since we’re selling the house and really really need a new table. That’s gonna make people buy it, not the tens of thousands of dollars invested into trim work and fancy ceilings and shit like that. When I was a younger man, I tended to spend money more freely. My thought process was that I needed to push myself to make more and to not concern myself with budgeting or constraining myself in any way from the hedonistic lifestyle I both desired and deserved.

By late afternoon, my head began to pound due to lack of crack-coffee and I quickly grew bored of Mrs. Fly’s caprices. I’m here now in my study, drinking a Cafe Americano — trying to get past the personal stuff of my day and into the sticks of why you should be concerned with equity prices here.

This market is like the best days of your Grandparents, the halcyon days when they were old, but wise, still agile, and seemingly impervious to the age that crept up on them. Fast forward just five short years and time took its toll, tremendously, and their frailness showed, like a snowcap melting under the heat of the sun.

This trade war doesn’t look like it’s going to be resolved. And US investors don’t seem to give a shit about anything at all. But there is something happening now that is beyond the scope of our control. China isn’t immune to this war and even if they were — they like to fuck with their currency, by depreciating it to gain an advantage on America via trade.

Watch the USD/CNY cross very closely this week, for your pathetic lives might depend on it. Should it break $7 to the upside, you’ll want to get your priorities in order and make arrangements for the after-life — for shit is gonna pop off and markets will get BOGGED the fuck out.

“Capital flight” will be the catch phrase.

Happy Saturday, fucked faces.

It’s all over you losers. The market showed you it’s cock today and it’s very small. It’s a micro-penis and can do no fucking at all.

Come Monday, the easterly winds will howl and permanent bulls cleaved from the field, gray matter exposed and splattered, blood drained and the body weakened into a catatonic state. You will rue the day you didn’t follow Le Fly into the FAZ mobile.

I leave you now a confident man, long NUGT, FAZ, DRIP and TVIX. May the Gods smile upon me and shit on you. Your designs are repetitive and boring. Trust me, the Black Flag will be served on Monday, generously, and all of you will be crying energetically into your showers — cowering in fear as the storms of fire descend upon you.

Good thing I don’t give a shit, otherwise I’d be inclined to take exception to this rout. This headline seems to have cut the dicks off stocks.

You’ve got to be kidding me. This is the same news for the past two years. How many times do we have to endure the trade war pump and dump? So now we’re setting up for a Mnuchin or Kudlow jawbone next week, followed up by a progress update on Trump’s fucking Twitter account. You’re all brainwashed into believing nothing can break stocks. That’s where you’re wrong.

I’m shorting more into the close.

China is going to learn one way or another. Either we’ll get them with our banks and trade — or our insidious culture. We’ll teach the Chinese to hate each other, themselves, turn gay, listen to degenerate music, watch immoral programming, and promote promiscuity — all for the sake of roping them in. If they do not rope in, we’ll rope them out.

ENTER LUCKIN’ COFFEE

This is the Starbucks of China — with over 1,700 locations in China, jut behind Starbucks’ 3,000. Thanks to the trade war, I suspect China will find a way to fuck all American companies doing business there, boosting the prospects of local yocals.

America will teach the Chinese to enjoy coffee and to throw away their disgusting green tea. Right after that, we’ll teach them how to cut their dicks off and to transition the men into women and the women into furries.

So much winning. The Art of the Deal.

This is how you get shit done, when you don’t want to get shit done.

President Trump and the United States escalated trade talks with “bullying behavior” and were the reason why they fell apart, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a press conference, according to state-run Chinese news source Xinhua.

“The two sides had open and constructive communication during the 11th round of the China-U.S. high-level economic and trade consultations,” spokesperson Gao Feng said.“However, it is regrettable that the U.S. side unilaterally escalated trade disputes, which resulted in severe negotiating setbacks.”

“China always believes that raising tariffs is not a solution to the trade frictions,” said Feng, however, China will be forced to take necessary countermeasures, he said.

“We urge the U.S. side to correct wrongdoings as soon as possible to avoid causing heavier damages to businesses and consumers in both countries and dragging down the global economy,” Gao said.

Good luck with that Gao. Trump is gonna read this shit and Tweet something awful towards you in 3,2,1…

My son decided it would be wise to set his alarm for 5:30am this morning. That’s great, only that it didn’t wake him up at all. But it was quite effective at waking me.

I let the fucking dogs out in the yard and the coyote is always well behaved, looking after the other lap dog — who is a fucking idiot. Yesterday the idiot dog got stuck under the woodshed chasing some animal. She was there for about 20 mins with me yelling at her to crawl the fuck out. She had done this last summer and, in a panic, I nearly tore down the whole shed to free her. As I was axing away at the shed floor, the idiot dog decided to escape and run off.

Early this morning, the idiot did it again.

Futures are -200 and the FAZmobile is revved the fuck up — readying to skid off.

Market’s don’t bottom on Fridays. Enjoy your losses.

Big earnings out after the close from overvalued poster child, NVDA. This is a company who has enjoyed extreme valuations expansion, due to their exposure to gaming, AI, and of course SHITCOINS. Remember when people were mining or BTC in their basements? Yeah, that shit was powered by NVDA.

The company went from 3x sales to 10x, based upon the idea that they could grow forever. Based upon the events which unfolded tonight, nothing could be further from the truth.

NVIDIA prelim Q1 $0.88 vs $0.81 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $2.22 bln vs $2.20 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Sales fell by a staggering 30% YOY.

NVIDIA beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line (160.19 +0.61)

Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.07 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.81; revenues fell 30.8% year/year to $2.22 bln vs the $2.2 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Gaming rev -39% to $1.06 bln; data center rev -10% to $634 mln.

Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $2.5-2.6 bln vs. $2.53 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus; non-GAAP gross margin 59.2-59.5%.

“NVIDIA is back on an upward trajectory,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “We’ve returned to growth in gaming, with nearly 100 new GeForce Max-Q laptops shipping. And NVIDIA RTX has gained broad industry support, making ray tracing the standard for next-generation gaming… Despite the near-term pause in demand from hyperscale customers, the application of AI continues to accelerate. AI adoption is accelerating in the world’s largest industries, moving beyond the cloud to the edge where AI processing has to be instantaneous. We’re excited about our pending acquisition of Mellanox, which will help us drive data center architecture for high performance computing and AI from the cloud to the edge,” he said.

NVDA is at the forefront of supplying the auto market with AI chips for automated driving. There’s a lot of great things to like about NVDA — which is why it’s expensive. But let’s get real here, sales dropped 24.2% YOY last quarter and this quarter it fell 30%.

Sales came in at $2.22b, flat from last quarter. On the bright side, the company is expecting 15% QOQ growth, which is positive and great — but they’re only giving guidance one quarter at a time due to lack of visibility.

Q2 of 2018 was peak revenues for the company, so expect sales to come in around -22% YOY.

Back in August of 2017, sales came in at $2.2b and then in the November quarter they grew to $2.6b. But net income for the quarter was only $394 million, which is more than 30% less than the August 2017 quarter. The implications of this is bad product mix and margins, either due to pricing weakness, increased competition, or a combination of their CAC skyrocketing due to promotions or increased labor costs. Either way, the company is far less efficient than before and I’d be surprised if the stock rallied on this milquetoast quarter.

If, in fact, they do $2.6b next quarter and then guide back up to $2.9b for the next quarter, then the company can advertise as being back on track. Until then, these fuckers are still trying to recover from the massive punch in the face they’ve taken and buyers of the stock should know there is a weakness here that is not being properly communicated to the public.

It was a rough road late last year, as markets dislocated and fucked up everything that seemed natural to buying dips. Since then, The Exodus algos have adapted to the market and have been working well.

Presently the SAAS industry is near the top of its hybrid oscillator, typically a sign of being overbought. But the QQQs and the SPY are not overbought just yet.

Here are some of the ETfs that are OB.

The notable standout is the banks, flagged by FAS. Delving you, you can see JPM does not respond well to an overheated stock. That’s what the algos do, measure technicals and compare the strength of those technicals historically and then measure to see what the stock does after hitting an extreme level.

In the case of JPM, the stock went up 1 time out of 11, for a 2% loss over 10 trading days.

FAS shows a little different angle to this trade, with the ETF performing well after the immediate OB, but then tapering off and sinking hard by the 7th day.

NVDA earnings after the bell. Markets shot straight up on China trade war news. I bought FAZ here for a trade.

In a flaccid attempt to make some coin, I bought some PDD.

Everyone is making money today but me. I just sold out of FTCH for a one day 8% loss — because I had bought it just before earnings were reported. I’m down on NUGT, down on my DRIP, down on my RIOT, down on my DTEA, down on my GROW — down down down down. The only stock that I’m up on is FTDR. The balance of my trading account, 60% of it is in cash.

My life has bee upended and uprooted by this move. For those just tuning in, I decided to sell my house and move to the Raleigh area of NC to become a southern gentleman of extreme qualities. I thought it’s be an easy task. I was wrong. Over the years, I’ve accumulated so much shit — it’s annoying. “It’ll all be over soon,” I keep telling myself.

Moving on, only 68% of stocks are up, so I can’t be the only loser out here. Am I? Is it possible?

On the bright side, 75% of my money is invested quantitatively and it’s up 1.31% for the day. Hence the term, “The Fly” always wins, even when he appears to be losing badly (sad face, throws self into lit fireplace wrapped in a burlap poncho).