18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,013 Blog Posts

The Primary Trend is At Risk of Being Lower

For much of 2023 my modus operandi has been to protect account with hedges — but not too big — since the goal was to eventually buy dips. This was rooted in the fact that the market trend had been up. With the market harangued lower again, down for two months straight, there is a risk for the primary trend to switch from up to down. I won’t bother drawing lines on a fucking chart; you’ll just have to trust me on this one.

If we tank anther 5% of so from here, expect to see live Centaurs on the NYSE rampaging through a sea of traders — kicking bulls into their chests and faces — bringing calamity and misery to all those seeking to, dare I say, compound their returns.

God willing, you’ll be compounding losses soon — as all of the roosters and the fucking chickens come home to die.

I am however open to the idea we rally too.

Happy Friday trading.

I’m +36bps in light trading, thanks to my smart shorts.

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Pressing Shorts into Deeply Oversold Territory is Retarded

Over in Stocklabs we analyze the markets using mean reversion algorithms. I don’t feel like providing you fuckers with a sales pitch — so I will just show you the graph.

That’s oversold for the $IWM. Those signals had been repeated for the past week. Ergo, if you sold short into that you were retarded. The Russell moved +1.5% today, giving the bulls a hope for a brighter future. I managed a gain of +37bps — because I am professionally trained and not emotional. I take sober and measured steps and only really expose myself when feeeeeeeeeling gregarious. Needless to say, I am in no mood for liberal candor.

My Quant jumped 1.1% due to the very heavy weightings in oil stocks. With WTI boosted and heading to $100, you need to keep an eye on those oils and also inflation.

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My Take on the Recent Development in the Russian-Ukraine War

First I want to address the recent $NYT article in which it plainly states Russia is producing artillery shells at 7x the rate of the US. This is true. Now I know what we, as Americans, are trained to believe.

“Nothing is made here BUT weapons and we have lots of it because we allocate so much money to it.”

Are you sure about that?

Here’s what we actually spend the $727b+ per year on.

$291b on operation and maintenance — including military operations such as training and planning, maintenance of equipment, and most of the military healthcare system.

$181 billion on pay for soldiers and retirement benefits.

$136 billion goes towards procurement or actual manufacturing of weapons.

$107b goes to research and development

We have sent Ukraine about $150b worth of weapons and material so far, more or less 1 year’s worth of domestic military production. Since we’ve had this bloated budget from the time when the towers fell on 9/11, we have amassed quite the stockpile — which we are drawing from to help Ukraine fight.

But we are not outproducing Russia and our contractors are paid much more than what Russia is paying. In order to get on proper war footing, we’d have to TRIPLE procurement, if not more, allocating another trillion per year towards defense.

The pro Russian folks on Twitter, all of whom I like very much, make endless excuses for the frozen conflict in the Ukraine. They say stuff like “Putin is holding back” or “wait until Russia really fights.” I believe this is folly. The Russians would annihilate Ukraine if they could — but they can’t. My evidence is the frozen conflict, something I can see.

Playing devils advocate, perhaps Russia is anticipating a major escalation with the west and is holding their reserves for a much wider conflict. If so, that still means it is a frozen conflict. If this were a chess match, the west has Russia’s queen cornered, unable to move.

On the other hand, Ukraine has zero chance at winning and is being mass murdered by both the Russians and Zelensky.

I have an extremely cynical view on this war and believe the west WANTS Ukrainian soldiers to die en masse as part of of depopulation scheme to rid it from a nazi ideology — tricked into nationalistic fervor. I can see how the average Ukrainian soldier can get caught up in loving his country and wanting to kill the Russians. But with over 400,000 Ukrainians dead, it seems any victory you might achieve is pyrrhic since all of your men are dead and will have to be replaced by the Africans.

The Russians haven’t deterred the west from doing anything significant for a number of reasons.

1. It’s easier to fight Ukraine armed by the US than fighting Ukraine armed by the US and also fighting all of NATO.
2. They have no nukes. Nukes aren’t real. Grow up.
3. Putin has yet to mobilize for a pan European war in the hopes of bleeding Ukraine out to the point of capitulation.

The rationale for helping Ukraine is of course rooted in ironic Hitler 2.0 fears. If we do not stop Putin, he will march to Paris — just like Hitler. It’s ironic since no nation hated Hitler more than Russia and also because the west regularly reminds us how inept the Russian army is. If they’re inept, they cannot march to Paris. You cannot have it both ways.

But there is some truth perhaps in what the west is warning about — but for different reasons. They have provoked Russia to the point it would be rational for them to declare war on multiple European states. After all, supporting Ukraine in the manner they’re doing in any timeline throughout history would be akin to a declaration of War. Whether the cause is just or not, NATO has declared war on Russia and it would not be far fetched to believe Russia might, after they succeed in Ukraine, seek revenge on nations who helped kill their soldiers.

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OMG – I Love Inflation

So it looks like oil is going over $100 again and we haven’t even begun to think about what it means. What’s also happening now is the US 10yr is +4bps accompanied by a rally in the Russel. This cannot and will not stand.

Over at iBankcoin we LOVE inflation. When I say “we” I mean it in the Royal sense, since it’s just me.

See with inflation we get higher gas prices and with higher gas I get to enjoy less traffic because the Oliver Anthony’s of the world can’t afford to just sit there in traffic. Those fuckers are off somewhere with a banjo singing songs.

You have to understand, I have no sympathy for the poor or fats. Both of those things are within your control. Stop being a pussy, feeling sorry for yourselves.

I was going to say “hey this is America — you can just rob a bank now” — but that’s wrong and I don’t condone degenerate behavior any sort, including excessive booze or any form of mind altering drugs.

Look here Jack, the market is going to snap in half within a year. All of this Biden business and his super genius economic strategy of eating iced cream with aviator glasses on cannot last.

Yesterday I said I was bullish. I actually said I was a “tranny-bull” but I was making up my own truth. I am able to do that here, creative license, because why the hell not!

I fucking hate the market at these prices and want them lower.

I had a really bullish book this morning but have been tapering it down and now posses a little $SOXS. I view the bounce in the $IWM as inevitable and won’t be stupid enough to lean hard in either direction. My plan is for a slow grinding assault on this tape, which is preferable for me as I don’t like to trade in annoying chop. I will, however, bulk up my bets as my conviction grows.

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At around 3:15pm I saw myself sliding back into olde habits, taking stops on longs and bulking up on $TZA and $LABD. At one point, after had declared to be a tranny-bull, I was 28% short. I quickly disposed of those rascals for profit and bulked the fuck up on America — because we’ve got enemies to kill and/or maim and I am here to profit from it.

This might sound profoundly distasteful to many of you, some random guy on the internet declaring profiteering off war, a wanton disregard for life and peace. That’s right — who can fucking stop me?

Look at me sideways and I’ll have my friends at NATO shove an ATACMs right into your fucking driveway.

Life as an imperialist American is better than ever. We’ve got the poors on the ropes, knifing each other into faces — at the same time grabbing European clay for both sport and profit — without spending any American lives. Think about the grandness of it. Please do not get mad at me for being honest. Many of my compatriots feign concern and hide their motives. I am just here to collect money, toss it away and never look at it again. Knowing the money is there is a great comfort to me and whenever I am given the chance to extract more — I do so.

I closed 104% leveraged long in a pastiche of quality stocks. I am a reformed bull, whose allegiance to peace and justice has since been incinerated before my new pagan idols in exchange for whatever I am now — which varies on a day by day basis.

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For as long as I can remember, I’ve been dreaming about the market’s collapse. I’d think about it all the time and get excited whenever it went down for a few days. But those days are now over and I’ve decided to become a Democrat Ukraine supporter, advocate for TRANS RIGHTS, and be a generally highly vaccinated/ highly compliant $NYT reading person.

My favorite shows are on MSNBC and since I’ve taken on this new life — I’ve already been invited to three charitable cocked tailed parties — two at a museum and one inside of a library where we will discuss BANNED LGBTQ books. Dinner is $1500 a plate and the causes range from white supremacy to LGBTQ rights to climate emergencies racking the planet with sweltering heat.

After all, I was never going to beat them with my snarky tweets and hateful blog posts. This way, I’ll fit right in and perhaps earn some positive accolades for all of my good will and gestures.

Markets are calm now, just like my white suburb, -19bps.

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Giving Up on Doom

I hate to quit on your mid-stroke (pause) — but no matter what happens this market doesn’t seem to want lower. We had HOT inflation data and saw a nice and beautiful morning collapse — but zero follow through and now we are barreling up like fat trannies rolling into the wrong bathrooms.

Luckily for me, I am very smart. I got the hell out from my shorts and longs and called it even down 5bps. I now have resorted to minor acts of depravity, long $TSLL and $ADBE. I am also TRAPPED in $ALNY, which is HALTED FOR TRADING pending an FDA review. I am almost certain I am doomed there.

Name a more meaningless organization than the paper shovelers at the FDA.

My recent avocations include reading another Tolstoy book, The Cossacks. All proper tools of Putin need to read Tolstoy at all times. I’ve also found both sadness and merriment in all of the recent migrant crossings. I just spotted one in an island off the coast of Italy where almost 10,000 Africans escaped their hell holes in an effort to live with the whites they hate most. After the whites move away, they will follow them wherever they might go, in order to receive scornful racism and resentment largess.

I have a traveling rule that I stick to. If your civilization hasn’t figured out clean drinking water, I have negative interest in seeing your ruins. If you have clean drinking water, I’d like to see your ruins.

Anyway, markets look constructive, dare I say. Back to work.

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I was doing so well up until Tim Apple talked down the market with his unimpressive phone, which is HIGHLY RADIOACTIVE according to French officials. They have halted sale of the phone — likely because it gives you cancer.

Moving on, I ended up losing 1.15% like a loser. BUT, to make amends, I really got short towards the end of the session, hedged only by some oils. I like the idea, if you would indulge me, of out of control crude prices and a zero bid Nasdaq. That would really teach those bastards a lesson, perhaps two.

Being perfectly honest with my strongly biased opinions here, I really do believe markets are on the verge of FESTOONING the fuck lower. By Hallow’s Eve, you’ll all be adorned with serial killer masks and beating one another for toilet paper rolls — as the Biden Administration locks the fuck down due to a climate emergency of the first order. See, it’s getting hot outside and those fucking iced caps are gonna melt — turning flyover country into coastal properties.

Keep an eye on the US 10yr and WTI. Those two are connected and the more pressure applied to the bond markets the greater the likelihood we might get RENEWED INFLATION and subsequent collapse of the entire financial system.

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You should know I’ve traded well today after a brief collapse of my PNL. I am now just down 50bps, after being harangued to the tune of 1.5%. Part of my #success was to believe in the wanton incompetence of my government, depleting its strategic oil reserves to teach Putin a lesson. Meanwhile, oil is barreling henceforth towards $100 and the very cold winter chills awaits the dastardly bastards in the west.

The Biden bastards were supposed to fill up the SPR months and months ago — but balked at the prices of $70. They much prefer to contemplate buying here at $100. You have to understand something — these are not maniacal evil geniuses in control of everything, stemming from the weather to the way everyone prefers to be gay now. These are creatures, subhumans proles, who are neurotic and paranoid and weak. They use the laws and the special police to uphold their power, deploying MUHHHH constitution and democracy and liberty to ply those policemen, alongside lucrative pensions, to serve them.

Meanwhile, we can all see very plainly they’ve taken a great thing and ruined it — cast aside freedom for tyranny and use war to maintain their feeble grip on power.

America began the millennia in firm control of all parts of the world. That influence is waning rapidly, perhaps at the greatest speed since the collapse of the Mongol Empire. None of this is reflected in share prices, since profits are bountiful and the global markets are firm. But there are cracks and fissures in the bedrock and it won’t take much to collapse this piece of shit into dust — starting with rapidly pacing UPWARDS WTI/Brent prices.


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Markets Are McFooling Early On

I was walking down a dark alleyway by myself after the close yesterday and got my jaw punched loose by the Ghost of Larry Ellison. I had an $ORCL position heading into today — but I do not anymore. Small Caps are surprisingly strong, led by all various types of degenerate stocks. Ergo, I swapped out my $TZA hedge for a smaller $SQQQ.

What I did next I am partially ashamed of: I purchased a handful of longs to bulk up my net bullish position. I realize the market is down and oil is sharply higher — but I just wanted to profit real fast and quick before the eventually collapse. I swear, this is my final series of long trades ever.

I had losses of 1%, reduced down to 70bps, but now stand at -90bps. It seems my foray into the long side was a bit presumptuous for the time being. In classic Pax Americana fashion, it seems I want to have my cake and also eat it too.

On a side note, I was talking with my wife last night about taking tests as a boy fearful of whether of not I was equipped with a #2 pencil. You have to understand the context: my grandfather practically raised me and was born in 1914, was something of an artist, and had endless pencils from who the fuck knows when: the 1920s? I’d go in there armed with #3, #6 or some unmarked pencil thinking my exam was going to come out corrupted because it wasn’t the requisite #2. This was very traumatic for me, heading into pitched battle with #3 odd shaped pencils in tow, racked with uncertainty.

As I discuss fucking pencils, my entire portfolio just Titanic’d itself, now down 1.05%.

Off to triage.

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