iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,556 Blog Posts

MARKETS FUCKING COLLAPSED ON MOST HAWKISH FED MEETING OF ALL TIME

You cannot get more hawkish than this. Fed’s Powell all but warned equity investors that the Fed was going to lay waste to their portfolios. This was explicitly stated when a reportedly errantly stated market had responded favorably to the Fed’s +75bps move, when in fact they had already traded lower by 131 NDQ. Powell responded by reminding the reporter the Fed wasn’t done.

Let me be emphatic.

The Fuck You Joe Biden trade is 100% a go. The Fed said NO PAUSE, strongly suggested PIVOTOOOORS to eat dicks. He even stated it would be better to overshoot than to permit inflation to become entrenched. He also stated the idea of a pause was moronic.

The market is now pricing in another +75bps for the December meeting. The idea of the FOMC stopping there is contingent upon just 1 thing: massive job losses.

The bottom line you need to understand is, as you gaze upon ROKU shattered to pieces in the after hours, the Fed is now mandated to destroy the economy and cause massive job losses.

The Permanent Bull class of investor has been dispatched and his body parts severed from his torso upon the Catherine Wheel in the great fires of 2022. Might I suggest you look towards to future to see black smoke and shards of metal bustling throughout your city streets — burned concrete and melted automobiles following a nuclear strike by Russia as the Ukrainian war takes on a more mental illness phase of development. You will rue the day you let your leaders get away with it.

In the meantime, wear your mask and inject poison into your children, all for the sake of science and feeeeeeeeeling better about yourselves — slow, dimwitted, vacuous, soulless scum.

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Markets Spike on Rapid Increase in Borrowing Costs

The FOMC hiked by 75bps and the market is pricing in another 75bps in December. On that news, stocks have taken off to the upside, with a wide array of things gingerly trending up. I took an opportune to trade a little of this and that before the spike and have more than halved my losses to -45bps. The initial move is way up, with the Dow +300. The NASDAQ is only +5, OFF the highs, but still more than 100 OFF the lows.

Into the close, who the fuck knows. I presently have a long only book with 40% cash, no high beta stocks — just larger capped old man risk averse names in an effort to slow down my beta to provide me with time to understand what the fuck the market intends to do.

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THE FUCK BIDEN TRADE IS ON

Short stocks, long oil is the “FUCK BIDEN TRADE”, which makes me feeeeeel good because he’s an idiot and a terrible leader and I have anger issues. On the other hand, the fucking FOMC is about to light up markets at 2:30pm. Anything can and will happen. They could signal pivot and we might gap higher by 1,000 or they might suggest even greater tightening and the doom you see before you will deepen and blacken until your portfolios are left in dust.

I am unsure as to the direction of markets today, and have been unsure for sometime now. Nonetheless, I continue to navigate and search the markets meadows for treasure and am convinced, at some point, I will cast upon a salient I deem suitable and propel higher.

As a dark winter of death and destruction awaits around the corner, we should be mindful that the United Steaks has just two things left of note.

1. Dollar reserve
2. Wealth via stock exchange.

The latter is being dismembered as we speak. But we still do have a strong and robust dollar, the envy of the world. This only can be threatened if US power is called into question, which is why they are all in for Ukraine. Should we lose the war against Russia, I suspect the dollar will collapse, at which point gold and even Bitcoins might become attractive again. Bear in mind, SHITCOIN has weakened as the dollar gained and stocks fell. The morons who ebbed into BTC when DOGE was all the rage have been dismantled and burned, no longer on the chess board.

Bottom line: No one can honestly predict what will happen at 2:30pm. My gut is for a spike, but I would not be surprised if the Fed said things to purposely wreck stocks in order to keep inflation at bay.

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SHORT INTO FED SPEECH?

You’ve got to be fucking mad. These lunatics live to roast bears upon their spits. At 2:30pm today, Chairman Powell will be making a speech in order to RIG markets higher. Also, I believe Cadaver Biden / Hitler will be speaking too. His speech, however, will be retarded — because he is in fact the father of a crack head. I suspect Hitler will discuss seizing oil profits from American companies in order to fund the nazis fighting the Russians in the Ukraine.

For the most part, I am a long-term now — leaning heavily into insurance and large financials and semis, with a IWM hedge via TZA. I am vacillating between down 20-55bps this morning.

I see oil stocks are down on a day oil is barely down. Relax. Oil stocks were up 30% last month. The FUCK Joe Biden trade is on with vigor and oil is destined to squeeze his nuts to $150 by spring 2023.

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Closed Flat, Exposed for Tomorrow

I closed the session FLAT, but made +230bps in the Quant and +120bps in my YOLO accounts. My hedging strategy works so well it all but negates the thousand transactions I do per session. Into tomorrow, I am fully invested with a 16% hedge in FNGD. I like the weakness of FANG stocks, spearheaded by AMZN, to plunge America back into a state of equity panic.

All is coming to a head soon. But before we get to the point of shooting fish in a barrel, we must first exhaust all buyers and destroy all rallies to the point they become dispirited and acquiesce to market forces lower.

My bias is long but that can switch quickly. The sideways action all day, in my opinion, is constructive action and aside from tech — much of the market was rather indifferent to bullish today.

INDEUD.

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We Are on an Insane Rollercoaster to Hell

Markets quickly gave back all gains and more after people concluded it was a stupid idea to rally with stoked inflation caused by China coming back online. But more than that, and this is an abstract view of things, we seem to be unhinged as a nation in regards to foreign policy. I have never seem them this bad, desperate even, to enter into armed conflict with a formidable power. If you only judged the Ukrainian war by Twitter and the shills on it — you’d conclude Russian soldiers weren’t actually killing any Ukrainians but instead stealing washers and falling off cars into artillery fire by the infallible Javelin or the HIMARS army crusher. This is simply the definition of stupidity and we will regret letting these people wield this much power. Their crimes are bold and in public view and their enemies are punished with cruelty and nothing stops them. Their malevolence is supported by state sponsored media and dissenters are financially and socially ruined.

How does one go long with comfort as these lunatics steam roll the country into crisis?

The short answer you don’t — just like you’d never relax if sashaying with diamond gold chains in a bustling city brimming with degenerates and drug addicts.

Why would you walk around in the stock market bristling with lunatics and thieves all around you unprotected?

Hedge up or die.

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MARKETS BUST LOOSE ON RUMORS OF CHINESE COVID ZERO POLICY END

One might argue this is the stupidest fucking reason to jimmy stocks. Then again, markets are always making excuses for its actions. In this case, the fact that people will no longer be welded into their homes is good news for stocks here too — for reasons I cannot tell you.

But notice what is busting loose in the pre-market: oils and other commodity related stocks. Copper is +3.5% and oil is +2.7%. But this is legitmized by the bond market reacting — with the US 10yr -14bps to 3.93%. Ergo, even though this might seem retarded, the proper things are moving to keep a rally.

Today I rebalance my Quant portfolio. If you don’t have the appetite or time to trade often, this is the perfect solution for you. I re-balance this just once per month — buying the top rated stocks in Stocklabs with 5% weightings per position and leave it alone. YTD, this strategy is +11.7% and has achieved 23%, +29% returns the past two years.

For members, I will sell current positions this morning and replace with the November portfolio around noon. This is exactly the screen I use, buying 20 stocks in order.

Bottom line: Stocks found a reason to rally, but its inflationary.

 

SL quant recap

 

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NOVEMBER LOOMS

We closed October out with a clown horn, losing 115 NASDAQS. The bull theory is 100% predicated upon a Fed pivot. All other narratives have been dispatched to the sea. In the event of a Fed pivot, I am pretty sure the event would be short lived. After the euphoria dies down, investoooors will demand growth.

We are dancing atop a spinning needle, hoping to find a salient of good news to close out what is and what has always been a DISASTROUS YEAR. With Fuckbook down more than 70% for the year, it would behoove you to pretend all is well.

The likely scenario is more disappointment as the Russian war machine gets hot for a winter offensive. Things are going to get worse before they get better. This is not the market you lean into and pretend the bottom has been achieved. We are on the verge of multiple financial panics on a number of axis.

I closed the month +3.35%, now +50% for the year. My performance has been nearly flat over the past 5 months, as I’ve found difficulty committing large sums on the long or short side. I suspect my confidence level will increase as the year winds down. I can tell you emphatically my belief for 2023 is grim. My bias will be shown without hedges in early January.

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October is a Wrap: THE BULLTARDED TREATED WITH LITTLE TRICKS

Happy Halloween catamites!

For the month of October, a month which I proposed we might crash (wishful thinking), the NASDAQ rose by 4%, Semis 2.5%, and the SPY 8%. It was a nice month for the permanent bull class of investor. However, those catacomb’d inside the FANG cellars were dispatched and placed into ruin.

Shares of META, GOOGL, MSFT and other tech giants disappointed and dove the fuck lower.

The oils rose by a staggering 30%, followed by beaten down REITs at +19% and retail at +18%.

The only areas of the market truly weak in October were Chinese burritos, solar, alt energy and biotech.

Barring some sort of collapse in my picks from now until the close, I will book a 3.5% gain.

What to expect for November?

I will reiterate my suggestions given in late September: a whirlwind of pain and suffering eagerly awaits you in the month of turkey and gravy. Tranny platoons of American soldiers will be STEAMING towards Europe in an effort to prevent a giant Russian winter offensive and markets won’t like it one bit.

Markets typically never trade lower in November and rarely crash into year end. My best guess is for an A-typical end of year wrought with pain and fears.

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Wheat, Natty Soar as Tensions with Russia Continue to $BOIL

Double Entendre alert!

It’s all fun and games until your city is a pile of ash.

Wheat is jacked this morning by 6% and natural gas by 10.5%, after Russia cordially withdrew from the grain corridor deal with the UN, Turkey and Ukraine. However, all parties are shipping grain nonetheless! It seems they’re not afraid of Russian subs and believe their torpedoes to be made of rubber. As such, today they exported with 12 large grain ships to Turkey and had 2 coming in! Perhaps that one was loaded with lots of Halloween snacks.

Anyway, I am of the belief it’s mostly bullshit at this point. If markets are never going to take this war seriously, I might need to focus my efforts on something else. Perhaps it’s time to obsess over the COVID shots again, take a look under the hood and see how many treble boosted folks dropped dead from SADS.

The NASDAQ is down 140 and I had a fuckload of everything rolling into today. I liquidated all of my inverse ETFs and still hold some risk averse stocks, +37bps for the session. I am content with the slow boil and will gun for higher returns when the fucking market is easier — you sons a bitches.

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