18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,117 Blog Posts


These fucking faggots are trying to stop you from achieving unbridled success. The polarization of the political world is insidious, like an addictive drug trying to rope in more dopes to support their agenda. Never watch political news, if you want to trade successfully. If you spend your days listening to polarizing talking heads, you will fall into a deep trench of nihilism and believe the sky is falling, in spite of the facts saying otherwise.

Do you understand what I’m saying to you son?

Assume everything you see and hear is all show, an act being played out to entertain people. Then look at the quarterly results of some of you favorite companies and look at the macros and then understand the sky isn’t falling and a giant crash isn’t around the bend.

Who’s evil, who isn’t? Who gives a shit? Live your life and make decisions that will benefit you. Yes, I am telling you to be selfish — because I know that you spending your days shitposting on the internet isn’t really gonna make a different. We’re like fireflies in the night being sucked into a giant fan with very sharp blades.

Any politically inspired dips will be bought. If you see stocks down 300 tomorrow because of some bullshit press clippings, buy it and thank me later.

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Enough About Me — Tell Me About Your Trading Year

This morning I woke up to my coyote snapping her teeth in my face, demanding to be walked. Upon visiting the downstairs foyer, I was entreated to three separate sets of shit upon my teak floors. Like a good pet owning slave, I picked up the shit, washed down the spots on the floors, and then proceeded to walk the beast whilst sleep walking. There’s something both humiliating and soul searching about having pets, sort of like kids, except for the fact that when your kids grow up they almost always resent you, at least for a while, blaming all of their problems on you and where you chose to live.

The S&P is higher by 4% and my gains are significantly higher than that; but what about you — the poor zebra? Pray tell me, what pitfalls did you fall into this year and why are you still leaving in a housing tenement?

I really can help and I really am a Dr., god damn it.

If you don’t want to tell me, it’s quite all right; I have lots of other things to do.

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Video streaming plays are all the rage again — led by HUYA and IQ. BILI is steaming higher too, as the entirety of the complex gets bid the fuck up.

Listen to me now — this hits $20, else Ragin Cajun has promised to castrate himself and live the rest of his days a eunuch.

Look at the MUH chart. Clean break out.

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It is a Friday and I don’t need to be doing this; but I am doing it anyway. I have nothing to prove to the world at my ancient age. I’ve been around, more or less, for the past thousand years — trading to and fro — having a grand old time on these internets in recent years. Some of you are GIGANTIC faggots and some of you aren’t. But one thing you all share in common is this notion, this far-flung theory, that you can stop me. This theft of honesty is, frankly, alarming.

Into the teeth of a short weekend, I stepped in and bought YEXT. Yes, indeud. Gaze at the chart and fucking tell me it isn’t heading straight for $20 — like a cock into condom.

Also, I bought BILI back, higher from whence I sold it — because Chinese video streaming is nuts. Look at IQ. Look at HUYA.

I teach you these things, my methods, because I am a generous man. You should thank me for being very nice, and very beautiful, believe me.

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RIP Anthony Bourdain

What the fuck is going on? It seems like every day someone else is hanging themselves. Sad news with Bourdain. He’s one of those people that everyone seemed to have liked.

If you’ve never read his epic book, Kitchen Confidential, do so. Here’s a piece in the New Yorker that led to his rise to fame.

People who order their meat well-done perform a valuable service for those of us in the business who are cost-conscious: they pay for the privilege of eating our garbage. In many kitchens, there’s a time-honored practice called “save for well-done.” When one of the cooks finds a particularly unlovely piece of steak—tough, riddled with nerve and connective tissue, off the hip end of the loin, and maybe a little stinky from age—he’ll dangle it in the air and say, “Hey, Chef, whaddya want me to do with this?” Now, the chef has three options. He can tell the cook to throw the offending item into the trash, but that means a total loss, and in the restaurant business every item of cut, fabricated, or prepared food should earn at least three times the amount it originally cost if the chef is to make his correct food-cost percentage. Or he can decide to serve that steak to “the family”—that is, the floor staff—though that, economically, is the same as throwing it out. But no. What he’s going to do is repeat the mantra of cost-conscious chefs everywhere: “Save for well-done.” The way he figures it, the philistine who orders his food well-done is not likely to notice the difference between food and flotsam.

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Futures Slump on G-7-Trump Drama

Look at this shit. Trump is going in hard against Canada, France and the G-7. He’s bring the trade war from Asia all the way back home and now over the Atlantic to the faggots residing in Paris.

Markets don’t like this rhetoric, so futures are off 50, Nasdaq ~40. Truth is, this is just rhetoric. Trump is like a child who needs to be placated. All of his threats, or at least most of them, end up in nothing. I would not be surprised to see stocks dive down lower on this news, especially because it’s Friday — but I’m pretty sure it won’t last long.

Trade wars aside, we’ve got a pretty good thing going here, globally. Business is strong, spirits are high, and markets have never been better. There’s literally nothing to fear but fear itself, or Zerohedge.

This is something that might rattle markets at little, should people pay it mind.

Near-term memory softness – reducing estimates on LRCX, AMAT, ASML, etc – Cowen (188.83)

Cowen notes recent checks suggest that market concerns regarding near-term NAND and DRAM capex softness appear to be true, but is not demand related, but more focused on pricing. They believe there is potential for wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending push outs due to chip pricing (for NAND and DRAM) and to a lesser extent yield-related issues (DRAM 1Y-nm) at Samsung. They view this as a timing related issue and believe it could be reflected mostly in C2H estimates and translates into roughly $2.5B in WFE spending. They are lowering 2018 industry WFE forecast from +12% Y/Y to +6% Y/Y and raise CY19 to +13% Y/Y from +4% Y/Y. Clearly LRCX (Outperform) and AMAT (Market Perform) might see the most impact due to their memory exposure, and KLAC (Outperform) appears the most defensive. They view this as near-term weakness and resulting in a resetting of expectations and forecasts. The more important takeaway, in their view, is that both CY18 and CY19 would still be growth years for WFE and speaks to their thesis of improved durability and lowered variability (less cyclicality) for the sector. Also reducing forecasts for KLAC, AEIS, and MKSI but maintain positive LT outlooks.

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Here’s Your Shopping List — You Ungrateful Malcontents

We’re only buy tech stocks — because those are the nerds who make us the most money. OilFAGS get beat down 8 months out of 12. Anyone who’d like to argue against that fact can go fuck themselves.

I don’t give a shit about futures or the fact that XYZ is already up 5,000% over the past 3 years — it’s going higher.

Here’s a simple enough screen for you Simons that displays the best tech stocks over the past month and the one’s that suffered the largest drawdowns today. What we want to do is watch them for upside reversals — get in — and then get the fuck out.

SAAS stocks are preferred, because it’s the Bernie Madoff of business — literally bullet proof. These companies didn’t slow down during the financial crisis; why would they slow down now? They’re using big data to drive sales inside high tech boiler rooms. Companies like HUBS, CRM, NEWR, and ZEN are making it easier to analyze and parse data for businesses to A/B test their ways into predictive and repeating streams of revenues that cannot be stopped — just like me.

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Bet against me, fuck around, end up losing your house, wife, and kids.

Carbon Black beats by $0.29, reports revs in-line with preannouncement; guides Q2 above consensus; guides FY18 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus  (26.31 -0.69)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.98 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.29 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($1.27); revenues rose 34.8% year/year to $48.4 mln vs the $47.99 mln Capital IQ Consensus. Co preannounced rev of $47.5-48.0 mln in the IPO prospectus.
  • Ended the quarter with 4,006 total customers, up from 2,648 in the year-ago period and from 3,739 at the end of the previous quarter. Growth was driven by strong demand across the entire product portfolio and customer acquisition across a broad range of industries. Growth of customers who licensed at least one cloud product increased to 1,870 at the end of the first quarter, compared to 552 in the year-ago period and 1,605 at the end of the previous quarter.
  • Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of ($0.41-0.42) vs. ($0.43) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $48.5-49.0 mln vs. $48.21 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Co issues upside guidance for FY18, sees EPS of ($1.32-1.35) vs. ($1.38) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY18 revs of $203.0-204.5 mln vs. $202.01 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Go ahead and tell me how I’m getting lucky.

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