Torturous Decline

We are not close to oversold yet. As a matter of fact, as you can see by the chart below — we are barely at early Dec 2023 levels. There isn’t any panic in this tape, especially a tape that is holding up the tera caps.

But let’s have a look at which notable stocks are in a BEAR MARKET for 2024.

Stocks down more than 20% for 2024:
$BA -22% $JD -22% $COIN -23% $LI -22% $MBLY -34% $RIVN -28% $ENPH -20% $VFS -31% $NIO -30% $CVNA -20%

Traders exited 2023 in love with electric vehicles and started 2024 with absolute seething hatred for them. There is nothing you can tell me that will convince me this is cogent market analysis — the “all knowing efficient market theory at play.” As time goes on and the more experience I get in trade, the more I realize the market is comprised, at an increasingly rate, abject morons. I do not mean that to come across as elitist or make myself out to be an intellect — for I am not. HOWEVER, once upon a time if a company traded at 10x sales that was considered to be an outrageous valuation. Yet now, investment banks feel comfortable pricing IPOs at 30x sales and then people wonder why $VFS is down 90% from its highs.

The checks and balances have been reduced to barely anything and the only actions the SEC are interested in are against penny stock peddlers who can ill afford to fight them in court.

I closed down 91bps, an improvement from the lows I held into 3 o’clock but another down day, low lighted by my non-stop state of ailment due to another dose of the COVID-19. I am grateful for not being vaccinated.

Into tomorrow, I’ll give it the olde college try again, mostly very long with a downside hedge against oil stocks — since those have been collapsing almost continuously for the better part of the past 18 months.

Now that I’m apart of the cadre of the transgendered bull, I was wondering when the next bailout might occur? Perchance, would you happen to know? I sit here atop losses of the large varital, down by 111bps, and was hoping that NATO would apply some of its ‘rules based order’ to this cadaver of a market. The market, for the love of God, has been bad all year.

How long am I supposed to endure this? Is it a test by God to see if I am worthy of going to heaven? Yes, that’s exactly what it is: a democratic capitalism test by God himself foisted upon each person. I am gathering that if I sell before the rally to come — I will be sent directly to hell when I perish — for not having faith in the market. If I hold on and endure the pangs of the bear — I will be rewarded with a feast and champagne toasts and perhaps some steaks. That’s right — God himself will cook me up some steaks as a REWARD for holding through the great bear run of 2024. Might I suggest in a prayer that he also make me some Pomme Frites with a fresh aioli? I do not like ketchup.

I’m trying my best to remain net long for the big run to come. I keep waiting for the turn — but it never comes. It’s like waiting for the bus in the winter cold without a hat or gloves. I have an $SQQQ hedge and none of my longs are risky — but I’m still down 0.75%.

The NASDAQ is -200 but the bigger story is the US 10YR up another 6bps. The incredible move in rates is suggestive of inflation; but I thought that was already put to bed?

I’m sure there is a rally to come and by the looks of it, I’ll probably miss it too.

For now, I remain cautious but hopeful, since the inflation narrative is dull and the bears are generally weak.

I switched my bias into the close and went fully long. The reason was simple: bears lacked the gumption to see it through. As such, it’s very likely the bulls will impale them at the open of trade tomorrow. Nevertheless, this is not a sporty tape and one should avoid adventurism.

I remain long a pastiche of very high priced stocks, stocks so high they escape the grasp of the Third Estate, who are presently pre-occupied losing their 2023 winnings long shit like $UPST, $AFRM, and $CVNA.

On the heels of the Trump victory, the democratic establishment is reeling in preparation of their prison cells to come. All will be stowed away once the constitution is placed on pause for emergency powers, the powers Trump will need to stow them all away. Rivers of tears flowed through the 0s and 1s of X last night and many more will come, as vengeance and blood revenge inch closer towards the sinners.

I took comfort in seeing it again. It reminded me of the glorious days of 2016, just before Trump was fooled into letting go of General Flynn. God willing, Trump will name Flynn as his VP in 2024, further increasing the panic and the fright amongst the sinners — perhaps even sending them to Canada or even Mexico for refuge.

I closed the session -35bps, not really trading or into this tape one way or another. I am simply long now as a matter of default since the bears are very weak people and are never able to mount any serious attack on the bulls.

It’s very easy to get caught up in the moment of COLLAPSE, fondly returning to the memories of 2008 when all was completely lost and all we had to do was wait for the end to manifest itself. Unfortunately for us, it never ended in 2008 and the world kept spinning, gayer than ever perhaps. I don’t think, in all of human history, we have ever had a more gay era than the one we’re living in now. Fancy men prancing about, moving with impunity. No risk, lots of rewards.

We look at the markets today and find joy in it’s demise but if we look even close — we can see that $MSFT is +3% YTD and most large capped stocks are in fact HIGHER for the year. Sure the smaller caps are lower — but no one cares about the small people — am I right?

Presently, I am 17% weighted $TZA against some longs because a man can always dream and they’ll never take that away from me. Soon, right wing goon squads will usher in El Duce Trump and $GEO will build special prisons for the democratic class of person — re-education centers for them to reflect upon their many mistakes and errs.

Into the final hours, I expect noting too terrific. I have accepted the fact I am likely to lose money today and blame it entirely on myself for getting sick. If I had been stronger, better equipped, I might be up today and perhaps my life would be better for it.

Breadth is 33%. Small caps are leading lower, but large caps aren’t up either. All appears to be lost again.

I was in the bed late into the afternoon, trying to recover from some sort of cold. When I get sick, I’m pretty terrible and take a long time to recover. After I got up, I walked the fucking dogs in the cold rain and then Mrs Fly decided it’d be best to give them a bathe — so I helped with that too. I help people when they need it. That seems to be my detail in life, as I am going to help you now.

BE CONCERNED.

All of the bullish praise I’ve given the market can go out the window with a blink of an eye, a snap of the finger. The US 10yr is now +12bps. Normally, I’d just say “it’s over” load up on $TZA and $UVIX and tell you to get your last will and testament in order for succession purposes. But I am trying to appease the bulls here by giving the market a little time to correct these measures.

Surely the market cannot be serious about inflation making another foray into the economy, right?

As for me, I hadn’t done anything but cleave out my losers about an hour ago. Only now am I being proactive, buying a little of this and a little of that — specifically TZA and some longs above $200 in price. I’m down 37bps for the session, which isn’t too bad.

I might take some more extreme measures into the close, or not. I haven’t decided the level of risk I want to take yet — but know that I must do everything possible to avoid giving up too much.

When you strip away the tumult in the Russell, the markets have been rather sanguine in 2024. At exactly flat for 2024, we are still waiting for a sensational move in either direction to set the tone for 2024. If you’re already long EV, solar and other cool areas of the market, the tone has already been set for you — sharply lower.

Here are 10 stocks with market cap above $50b with very strong technicals — take what you will from it.

$WDAY, $COST, $ISRG, $META, $NOW, $VRTX, $CNI, $ARM, $SAP, $BLK

The list carries on to 238 names fitting my criteria inside Stocklabs.

Once again, I find myself wanting to hate the market but being forced to like it. Even though I traded through a sickened haze last week, I was alert enough to understand the natural tendency of the market was higher and that bias had not been stricken down.

Pax Americana was offered another blow for the second week of 2024. Markets traded flat but high beta “cool stocks” shed another 2.55%. It’s one of those odd tapes that you just need to be in to understand it wasn’t any good. I, on the other hand, managed perfectly and gains 2.4% for the week — closed with a leveraged long book of stocks greater than $200 in price, barreling headstrong into Monday.

In other news, the State of Texas has seized part of the border where all of the disgusting migrants are entering and the US govt is suing Texas to stop this. Texan national guard are armed and ordered to not permit the US border patrol access to the areas in question — mostly because the pension loving bootlickers are traitors to their country and have done immeasurable harm to the country.

Also, US blogger and outspoken voice against the thugs in Kiev and the NATO war against Russia, Gonzalo Lira was killed in a Ukrainian prison. He was there for 9 months and never granted communication with his family and zero US officials ever attempted to extradite him back into the country, whose only crime was speaking out against the war.

Some are glib about these things, make light of it, move onto next subjects and profess “what a time to be alive.” This is false. These are the dark ages. We are living in the very worst of times and the lack of seriousness in the west has led it astray, guided by malevolent forces. You have to understand what the end game is and it isn’t funny: your death.

This isn’t a movie and not fodder for a fucking debate. The American regime and most nations of the west are dictated and ruled over by people who hate the constitution of its people and seek to replace them with a more malleable person — devoid of religion and beholden to money.

Markets tends to trade separate from the news these days and I suppose it’s not all rot in a giant country with lots of places to hide amongst higher income elites. But I’ve made a living my entire adult life tracking trends and this is the most bearish set up one could ever imagine. Some might say “it’s all part of the plan” and I reject that. Has it ever dawned on you these people are mentally ill and incompetent? They live in a bubble and believe their own bullshit and do not care what or who they break. We have, seemingly, ZERO American institutions brave enough to reject their agenda and things are only getting worse, accelerating faster each and every day.

To be bullish in this environ requires you to be deranged and ignorant to the demographic woes looming ahead. Nevertheless, it’s important to remember all of these problems can be fixed if people in positions of power kept their dicks in their pants and did something for the nation instead of aggrandizing for themselves.

My cognitive abilities are close to zero, as I am, once again, inflicted by the COVID-19 virus. It’s not official, since I do not bother to test for it — but my body says “you’re fucked bro” and I want nothing but water and rest.

This morning in a COVID haze, I sold all of my aristocrat stocks before markets plunged lower. I netted a gain of +52bps and stepped aside into all cash. MY gains for the year are now +3.1%, and +2.4% of them have been achieved in this COVID dreaming circus world. I would not call it luck, per se, as my methods are memorized and I purposely bought very high priced stocks in an effort to not trade.

In other news, Mrs. Fly is quite pleased to see me sick. She doesn’t express it openly — but I spy a certain pep in her step, an increased verve as she prances about the house in perfect health. On occasion, she’ll make some comments at me, such as “you’re always getting sick” or “don’t touch anything” — to which I care not to partake in debate.

I’m up now and should be trading — but I do not feel like it. The market is bad and it’s not going to get better today. Maybe better luck next week.

I see the big spikes in nuclear energy, gold, and tanker stocks — basically world war 3 is back on the menu.

Many of you were tricked and fooled into losses of the largess varietal today — but not I. I did maybe 3 or 4 trades today to better perfect an already perfect allocation and slammed the fucking gavel on the market +24bps for the session.

Year to date, both the NASDAQ and S&P are flat, but he Russell is down 3.5%. Because of the large rally in the Russell from November till end of 2023, many of you reading this are now TRAPPED in retarded stocks — names like $CVNA, $UPST, and $AFRM — because you thought it was funny.

How funny is it now?

I’m +2.6% for 2024 in slow but methodical positioning, erring on the side of caution — aware and alert to all of the traps and ambushes that lie ahead.

Into tomorrow, I have an ALL LONG book leveraged to 113% of equity only in stocks greater than $200 in price. This is a novelty trade for me and I rather like the idea of it.