iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,536 Blog Posts

MORE RECOURD HIGHS — WHEN TO SELL?

We are seeing nominal rotation today, out of MAG7 stocks and into commodity related names — off the back of sharply higher WTI. We also continue to see vagrant degenerate piece of shit stocks buoyant in a sea of refuse. I’d argue this market should be sold — but I’d probably be wrong. I hate proffering bad or ill timed advice.

No, we are betwixt a mania of many sorts: geopolitically, nationally, commodity, real estate, currency, and equities. The wild eyed shift out of dollars and into Bitcoin/other cryptos speaks to a narrative of risk. Markets do not top at the highs, as stupid as that might sound. Before an eventually move lower, we’ll get some distribution and some truly volatile sessions marked by and accentuated with fear. There isn’t any fear in this tape — just a lot of odious kids running about telling you to “choose rich.”

When to sell?

This is never an easy answer but if you need structure — base your sales off allocation percentages. If your allocation in a stock is 5% and it doubled in price and is now 9 or 10%, sell it down to 5% again.

Overall models that are for long term should abide by similar allocation models and cash levels should not be higher than 10% with stocks at RECORD HIGHS. You will never time the top so stop trying.

As for my trading — another RECOURD high +111bps, stacked with 33% cash and a 12% $BITX position — eagerly awaiting a late night adventure higher for Bitcoin. I’m off to a very good start for 2024, +14%. Do not feel envy or look at me with any varying degrees of animosity or animus — for my talents in the stock market are meaningless fribble and pose as nothing but a reminder that trading stocks is an absurd avocation and an even more absurd career path. NEVERTHELESS, I beat on, backs against the current.

Comments »

Cryptos Are Not Done Going Higher

In an effort to be transparent about my crypto holdings, I’ll disclose some brief thoughts.

I’m not really a fan of alt-coins but believe they will go higher due to the wave of bullishness in the space now. I do believe $BTC will rest at $75k, en route to $100k. Humans love to fixate on big round numbers. I own $BTC from $26,000s.

I also own $BITX (2x $BTC) in stock accounts.

The only other crypto that I own is Solana and I will keep buying it every month for the balance of 2024. I own it from the $60s and then high $120s and would buy here. I have it staked at $COIN for 5.01% APY.

I know many people hate cryptos and will never buy it and I’m not here to convince you otherwise, but to remind you that it is an asset, just like anything else. I am certain people loved Lehman and Bear before they collapsed to zero and I am sure many a scam stock rode waves in the past making people millions of dollars before ultimate demise. I used to harbor deep hatred for asset classes I was unfamiliar with, which is a form of cope for either missing out or some form of latent jealousy. We have one life to live and within that life we can ruin it in may different ways, chiefly by way of financial collapse.

I try my best and I never risk too much and hope that my instincts and choices lead to success.

Comments »

PAR EXCELLENCE

Am I entitled to pace up and down the internet, wielding my returns at you — boasting about how great of a trader I am — how you’re all lucky to have access to a person, such as myself?

The answer is YES, without a doubt.

The NASDAQ is +7.8% for 2024. What am I up? Let’s take a look, or a gander, if you will.

My trading is up nearly 14%, the once per month traded Quant is +8.6% and the hardly ever trade Strategic account of my best long term ideas is up more than 10%. That means you all have to shut the fuck up — plain and simple. I don’t want to see your returns. Stick them up your ass. This is about me, so stop trying to make it about you. If you wanted to boast about your returns, I suggest started a blog or an account on X and find out how many people give a shit about them. Probably zero.

I’m 88% cash now, just two silly piece of shit positions on the books now and I have things to do, so I will likely not press any big exposure till late afternoon.

Comments »

Can Anything Stop the Market?

I often think about the topic of the stock market versus the very obvious decay in the west, specifically America. The macro analysis would suggest degradation amidst the populous, lawlessness, Neo-liberal ideologies run amok, oppression, and a want regard for the value of life both here and abroad.

For anyone “normal” or conservative, the cultural landscape of present day Americana is shockingly depraved, steeped heavily in degeneracy — celebrated and controlled by mentally ill people.

But taking a step back from that, and perhaps this is me trying to cope with RECORD HIGHS in the stock market — do these conditions warrant immediate decay in GDP and stock valuations?

After all, the merchant selling widgets prospers when more customers enter his store. Ergo, the greater the populace, at least for a time, the greater the profit. Eventually it will end with social discord being so untenable it will fracture and collapse — resolved only by violence and conquer.

What our esteemed leaders have figured out after 2008 is that they can print as much money as they wanted because the demand for Euros and Dollars was infinite, since 3rd world populations were steaming higher and all of their currencies were shit. In other words, the infinite money hack deployed by Central Banksters is without consequence — up until the point when confidence is shattered and/or an alternative takes root.

The more people entering the west, the more customers and that’s all they really care about, with the added bonus of replacing and diluting the revolutionary spirit of those native to those lands. This is a cursory and over simplistic view of the present landscape to explain stock prices — but on a geopolitical plane it doesn’t hold up and the rationale isn’t motivated by money — but power and spite.

Comments »

All Attempts to Break This Market Have Failed

Yesterday I was hoping the semis would CRACK lower, helping usher in the apocalypse and all would be lost in ruin. Instead, the $SMH is +2% and things are looking just fine. I took advantage of the fine southern weather down here nd took most of the day off — sipping on some sweet tea like a fat piece of shit.

I re-entered the arena bogged down 70bps, mostly due to $BITX knifing lower. So I doubled down at the bottom and traded a few other things and PRESTO, just like that, I stand before you +15bps.

It gets boring, gaming the stock market is easy — especially when the trends are accommodating. I keep waiting for discord and a malevolent tape — but she never comes.

Comments »

The Semis Approach the Cliff

The semis fell anther 1.8% today, on top of the nearly 4% drubbing on Friday. I do not want to reconcile this move as it “being over” but we are fast approaching the pressure point of a mean reversion move higher or rout. For me, the rout option is preferred. Like, if I had a choice where to send the SOX index I’d send it all the way down to hell and lower. The fact that I’d lose vast sums of money would be a secondary concern to me, as I am fixed on presiding over a broken market — being able to at some point convert my Bitcoin back into dollars to acquire assets cheaply.

Nevertheless, do not count on the semis to fall much further. The overall trend is still up.

I closed the session +147bps, 50% cash, 6% $SQQQ and the rest a short list of low beta stocks. My positioning is defensive — since my MTD gains are nearly +4% and I haven’t even traded well. When I enter the zone I want to be in, which can happen at any moment, I expect my YTD gains of +13% to quickly jump into the mid 20s. It might happen this week or next month, or maybe later. But rest assured, my gains will hold and my losses will be minimal and the breakout to come will be obnoxious.

Comments »

Bitcoin Has Busted Loose

Listen to me —

If you’re selling $BTC here — you simply do not understand human behavior and how we respond to asset price inflation. After years of being BOGGED DOWN below record highs, we have finally achieved new highs for $BTC and other cryptos — sending the bears downward for good. The way this works, if I might suggest, is the price action will take on a ribald nature and GIGASPIKE towards the next logical rest place of $100,000.

I am not long $BITX at the present — but still own my $BTC, $SOL and my wife seems to have other shit coins and some $ETH. I am a believer and want to see the proliferation of $BTC to continue — laying waste to the trust people have in the FOMC.

I am 72% cash now, indifferent to the tape, +165bps.

Comments »

### RECOURD HIGHS ###

I stepped into today with 12% positions in $SQQQ and $BITX, mainly because I loved Bitcoin and hated stocks. I had 4 or 5 stocks too, all risk averse names that would do well in a bad tape, the rest cash.

The subsequent result was winship of extreme magnitude, +153bps at the open. Seeing this I liquidated and moved entirely to cash. If I so choose, I can take the balance of the day off and read books, writing a novel, sit and listen to classical music and contemplate the end of mankind.

I have no desire to chase the morning carnival and will wait for the afternoon to step back in. Just know and find solace in knowing there are men out there, specifically me, who can trade and trade well.

Up nearly 13% YTD, fresh recourd highs.

Comments »

Are We Traditionally Overvalued?

In Stocklabs I compile valuation data going way back. I don’t need to examine stocks like $NVDA to show you how overvalued it is. We already know that — just like we knew $AMZN was overvalued in 2003, 10,000% ago. But what about the overall market?

Let’s examine the data.

A look a gross margins, so we get an idea about how profitable companies are now compared to the past.

2023: 48%
2020: 49%
2016: 46%
2012: 43%
2008: 42%
1993: 37%

Computers and technology have consistently increases corporate profits over time. Based on 2023 data, margin have really never been better.

Now let’s look at price to earnings for the tech sector.

Median PE/% above overall market median PE:

2024: 24.7x / +40.3%
2020: 30.6x/ +51.3%
2016: 23.9x/ +17.5%
2012: 18.4x/ +12.4%
2008: 16x/ +14.2%
1993: 15.5x/ -12.2%

How about that data!Tech is so profoundly dominant in the market is now sports a 40% premium to all other stocks in the $SPY. You can see how this progressed higher over time and what about 1993 being a 12% discount to the overall market? This is before the internet revolution and all of the hype that came with it.

Price to sales/% above overall market median PS:

2024: 2.33x/ +14%
2020: 3.69x/ +52.5%
2016: 2.12x/ +4.4%
2012: 1.57x/ +0.45%
2008: 1.36x/ +12.7%
1993: 1.03x/ -7.3%

Here is the PS table on $AAPL

$MSFT

$AMZN

The most undervalued part of the market?

I have a tool that measures the future price to sales or earnings ratios against a 3 year average to produce price targets. To filter out bullshit, I will only include stocks with market caps above $5b. Here is the upside from current valuations, based on next years sales estimates, per sector.

TECH: +0.6%
BASIC MATERIAL: +5.1%
CONSUMER GOODS: -1.9%
FINANCIALS: -3.7%
HEALTHCARE: -3.2%
INDUSTRIALS: -8.8%
SERVICES: -2.6%
UTILITIES -3.1%

Within basic materials, here are the industries with most upside, based off a median 3yr price to sales valuation metric.

Alt Energy: +47%
Ag Chems: +16.9%
Major Oil: +13.2%
Independent Oil +12.2%

Now for tech.

Solar: +28.7%
Chinese stocks: +25%
Semi memory: +18%
Semi equipment: +16%
Data storage: +15%

Comments »

Arrogant Bulls Bleed

It was long overdue — the degenerate class of investor had their oatmeal eaten for them today with drop dead pin action impugning the dignity of the semiconductors — sending shares of $NVDA down more than 5%. The entire index bled out, alongside tech, to the tune of 3.9%.

The arrogance of the bulls is completely unhinged and unchecked and a great comeuppance not only looms — but all but assured. Into the close, I doubled up on my $BITX position — as I am convinced a great big splash higher for $BTC looms. I am also 12% allocated into $SQQQ — because fuck the transgendered bulls. I hope this market rots in hell.

Acrimony aside, I had a pleasant session — +47bps — because I am a professional and do not give up gains. I am certain the vast majority of you absolute pants shitting clowns got racked with losses today, massive reversals underway and you did nothing but gawk at it. You let it happen and now you’re only hope is mercy.

Come Monday, I fully expect BROKEN ELEVATOR pin action — cables cut clean — everyone drops to the fucking car crashes and blows up.

Have a nice weekend.

Comments »