18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,776 Blog Posts


I closed down 2.2% today, even after hedging like crazy in order to stem the flow of blood protruding from my head. For the week, I am -0.16%, mostly due to being a professional and understanding how to invest with appropriate tact and decorum.

It’s important that we acknowledge several palpable items now.

1. Inflation is resurgent
2. Rates are going higher

These two facts REBUKE the idea of Fed pivot and pause and instead place a 50bps hike right back on the table.

Whilst this drop wasn’t exactly deadly, it was enough to warrant a hedge, so I went 20% SQQQ into morning. I don’t want to squander what I have achieved and I also don’t want to be glib about the decline in an attempt to persuade myself that easy money is still possible in this tape.

We had fun. We made fast money quickly. But it’s over now and things have instantly become arduous, so prepare for volatility and the idea of dramatically lower prices in the near term.

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Hotter Than Expected PPI Numbers Trap Permanent Bulls

We came in hot, 6% v 5.5%. The producer prices don’t really mean that much and I am sure within a day or two — the market will forget all about it. But for now, stocks are diving lower and rates are +5bps to 3.86% and Wall Street, all of a sudden, is scared. The Vix is +9%.

We had a real nice market going as of yesterday — but now it’s over. Again.

What to do? Do we hedge heavily or wait for the market to possibly turn up and then sell?

For now, I am holding only long — taking the hits and feeling the pangs of calamity — down 2.7% for the session.

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House Fly is hosting friends from NYC today, so I have been trading lightly from the tennis courts. I will let you know, in case you’ve been concerned, my fortunes have greatly improved and now stand, once again, at RECOURD HIGHS +1.14%.

Gains for the year ENCROACH on +30% and I am quite literally just getting started. I am 115% leveraged long without a hedge and endeavor to trade like this until I fail. I do believe, deep down into my soul, that I am deserving of more. I think of the gains I’ve made and do not feel grateful or fortunate, but an insatiable desire for more.

You could of course access my ideas and picks in real time, enabling yourselves to trade alongside a champion. But that would only improve your lives and place you in a position to make a good life decision, which we both know is the exact opposite of your lifestyle choices to date.

A subscription to Stocklabs cost maybe $59 or $99 per mo — which gives you a wonderful data platform, powerful screen, mean reversion algorithms, active community of fuckheads and gamblers, and me. But please do not consider this a sales pitch, as I am simply pointing out how you, the reader, might improve your station.

My health is wonderful and I am feeling very great.

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Opened Down Inside a Crevasse

I had too much wine last night and this morning too many losses, as I begin the session DOWN 1.35%. While important to at times appear fallible and vulnerable to error, I must admit I do not like the feeling of being wrong and would much prefer, if being honest, if the stock Gods would grant me, say, just one more day of unlimited upside fervor.

I closed yesterday +2.57%, in half paying attention trade. I see today the oil trade upended and I’m really not caught up on recent events to understand the gravity of what I am looking at. I could only imagine how most of you feel, always out of the loop and bereft of actionable knowledge. It’s no wonder you view me as an expert or “savior” of coin, whereas in reality I am merely a competent person trading in a manner on par with a person in my station.

Let me figure out what the fuck is going on here and get back to you. At first glance, I was elated with the open and loved all of the runners running. But then we got a FUCK YOU CANDLE from hell and now I don’t know what is going on. I have a small hedge, but willing to make it much greater.

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Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop

For a brief moment this morning we COLLAPSED. I had some hedges, so was fine. I had a large SQQQ position in place and then went out to do some things, only to come back and also ENTREATED to it being down severely. I closed it out because I don’t like losers.

Markets want higher, apparently. Who am I to bargain with it?

I have a full portfolio of good longs and I’ve supplemented them with some garbage stocks, which is risky because if markets pull in from here, my losses will be disproportional to the market. It would be a wise idea to be out of these trash stocks early, be happy with my +2.2% gains, and prep for tomorrow.

Do I hedge into balloon madness or go all in again?

I hate to do this to you, and it’s awfully rude on a day like today, but the 10yr rates are ripping again — now ENCROACHING on 3.8%. It’s actually 3.76%, but I felt like exaggerating for the sake of my world view.

Here I am 115% long, no hedges, STEAMING into the late afternoon bullish. All I wanted was for collapse and upheaval; but instead I have received a bull market.

Truly sad.

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I stand before you a very powerful man. Apparently I’m able to forge money through sheer force of will. I had a monstrous hedge in SOXS this morning and closed it out at 9:31, whilst still up 4.5% and then the market took off and hasn’t looked back since.

To say that I am a great man, apparently, is an understatement.

If you’re annoyed by my ceaseless wins, I agree and concur. I’m rather annoyed by it and was hoping for some adversity before my next run. I feel like the guy in the Twilight Zone episode in hell who keeps winning — and then he’s bored because winning isn’t all that fun without the specter of losing.

That’s was rather glib, wasn’t it? Perhaps the stock gods will now punish me for it.

CPI is decreasing. Ergo, we have a green light for stocks. Dips will be bought, fortunes increased.

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The Envelope Wasn’t Pushed — Because I Didn’t Have It in the First Place

I was tempted today to do something extraordinary. I felt, due to being down 1.87% in a session where stocks ripped higher — I needed to do something extra in order to win. I started and stopped myself several times and settled with my 105% long book hedged against a 20% SOXS.

At times I was tempted to go 40% short and really stick it to the bulls. But a cursory look at the tape demonstrates a bullishness that should not be ignored. Even though it was difficult to find 15% rippers intraday, today was about something else — more of a main stream sort of day where real companies lifted higher.

My Quant, which is representative of the market, was +1.68%. My trading failure started and ended with the fact that I leveraged long into small cap garbage stocks, focused somewhat on AI — which were ripped to pieces today. The problem with themes is they, on occasion, reverse, and trade counter to the market. It’s very possible AI, SOUN and BBAI will trade higher tomorrow — but there’s also a chance they can capitulate lower — due to all of the hot money wrapped up in it.

I resolutely settled on the fact that I’m up nearly 25% for the year and don’t need to make 10% per week, no matter how many of you sons a bitches enjoy it.

Over the next several days House Fly will host some friends from NYC, so trading and perhaps blogging will be light.

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Knowing When You’re Finished Comes with Seasoning

When I was a younger man I never thought I was finished or had topped, on a personal level. I arrogantly Eddie Barzoon’d my way about town, always onto the next thing in attempt to aggrandize myself with something or the other. In trading, I was in a constant state of war against real and imagined enemies — and I was always onto my next biggest win. This is why, as many of you know, I blew myself up to smithereens back in the early 2000s and I also had a much deadlier avocation that I had not discussed in such detail circa 2014.

These blowups didn’t make me a “bad trader” per se. I was still talented, but retarded. I wouldn’t know when to quit and I’d keep doubling down on the assertion that, for God’s sake, I could not be wrong. And if I had been wrong, there was always a way out and that way was, naturally, do double and triple down on the same mistakes.

Some of you morons are likely experiencing that right now.

As you grow older and “wiser” you receive “seasoning” and eventually you understand how the world works. For example, I haven’t traded all day until now, as I was busy liquidating last week’s debacles and then reallocating into this week’s picks. I scan the market and really find nothing that I like, so I sold short. I didn’t short to a large degree, just 10% against a 105% long book. But I know that whatever tape we’re in now isn’t the one I crushed last week. As a matter of fact, AI stocks have been obliterated today, confirming my uneasiness about them I experienced last week. Unfortch, that uneasiness didn’t result in me eschewing them, naturally.

There are a better than 50% chance I, personally, am done trading very well for a month or two — maybe longer. This is how it goes and it’s very mature of me to relay this to you, so you know.

What can turn me around?

One or two big gains will do. I will attempt to achieve this — but fully expect to fail.

Presently, I am -1.67% on the session.

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Beware When Swimming in Feces

Markets are fine this morning, but I am down more than 200bps. Reason being: I’m knee deep in shit stocks. I sort of knew this could happen but only wanted 1 more day. I figured, if I could get just one more day then I’d stop being such a gambler and play it safe again.

Unfortunately, for me and those mirrored to me, today is an outlier day, markedly to the downside.

First order of business is to stop the bleeding and regroup. This time, as God is my witness, I’ll be good. I’m also feeling very fresh, in good health, and very smart.

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You’re Only as Good as Your Tools

I will once again, likely in vain, attempt to help you help yourselves.

How did I turn $100k into $1m since late 2020?

I am able to scan the market with perfect alacrity thanks to the software I built — Stocklabs. Without it, there is no way in hell I could’ve done it.

Yes this is an endorsement and yes you should join and if you’re asking me seriously — no you should not only depend upon my picks but instead develop your own skills, which will take a lot of time and set backs and unending experiments. Providing you are always in the game, you should be ok. The way to stay in the game is by avoiding overly concentrated positions (greater than 10%) and sector allocations. If you have 20 positions at 5% weight each and they’re all in tech — are you not egregiously over-concentrated?

If you want to know the secret to my success in trading — here it is.

I use our dynamic screens to find fast movers. The best way to find runners is by analyzing the volume. If XYZ trades 1 million shares per day, but has 900,000 shares trade by 10am, ordinary screeners will not show a volume spike. What I have done is pro-rated the volume of a stock by the minute — using a 30 day average. I named it “volume delta” and I use these screens to help me find stocks moving higher on aggressive volume.

During the bear, the delta screens were useless. I resorted to other screens for my ideas, such as finding mega cap stocks near session highs, in an attempt to squeeze out 2 or 3 percent. But with this market, I am able to find 10% runners inside minutes and it’s important to capitalize on this now, whilst the times are good.

I have a wide array of screens that I made and keep in the default screener for members, in a drop down.

Another thing I utilize frequently is thematic trend analysis. This is best achieved by creating baskets of stocks in a certain genre, in addition to micro-managing industries.  I have over 100 watchlists of stocks created that can be viewed upon to analyze movements over timeframes ranging from 30 seconds to 30 minutes, same with industries (198) and sectors (8). If Artificial Intelligence stocks are moving higher with aggressive volume, I am able to see it via % change 5 min and volume surge analyzer (5 min) tools inside my watchlists tab.

The volume surge analyzer (VSA 5m) measures the volume in a stock over the past 5 mins compared to previous. We provide this information ranging from 30 seconds to 30 mins.

(VD=volume delta)

I rarely buy runners down more than 10% in any given session. Some people have success in buying dips — but I prefer momentum. I find it easier to extricate a little more from a runner blasting at session highs on aggressive volume than one knifing lower amidst panic selling.

This might all end next week and we might be back in a bear rape tape. For that, I analyze what I call an “Alpha ETF” screen, which produces ETF runners over a 5 min times frame (my preferred time frame to view). I often use ETFs to hedge my longs and take quick rips. The trick, I have found, is to take very large positions — sometimes as much as 40% of assets. While this might seem reckless — it’s not. If you have a 100% long book — anything less than 40% is still a net long position. I often take 10% weighted positions in SQQQ or TZA or UVIX or LABD in an attempt to slow down the losses I am enduring in my longs. Many times these hedges end up as losses,  and that’s 100% acceptable. If markets look to be turning back up, I simply close out the hedges and sit on the my existing longs for recovery. In many cases, I close out my hedges for small percentage gains, anywhere from 0.5 to 2% is my goal. While 1% gain might seem like nothing, when you have 20% of your book in it, that is on par with booking a 4% winner in an ordinary sized position. At any rate, the whole point of a hedge isn’t to “make money” but to slow down the losses and/or make small gains in an attempt to eventually make the greater sum on the long side.


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