18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,086 Blog Posts

Morning Poppers (Double D, Speed Fencing Chess Edition)

My favorite holiday of the year is here; but do not fret I’ve been doing this long enough and am old enough to not toss corny Hallow’s Eve jokes your way. I will not remind you about how spooky it is outside now, still dark, even though it’s 7am. And I certainly will not try to tie in the spooky aesthetic with stocks, somehow suggesting we’re all trapped in a god damned haunted house and mad man Yellen is on the loose — trying to take away our interest payments on our CDs.

Nasdaq futures are up 11 and everything else is rather un-notable. Europe is blah. Asia was blah. And I just had a tall glass of Almond chocolate milk. It tastes just like Yohoo.

Here are some important headlines.

Under Armour beats by $0.03, misses on revs; Lowers 2017 outlook
Mosaic beats by $0.22, beats on revs
ABB Ltd added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman
Pfizer beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; raises FY17 guidance slightly
CONSOL Energy misses by $0.15, beats on revs
Shutterstock beats by $0.04, beats on revs; reaffirms FY17 revs guidance
Shopify beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (raises FY17 guide)

There aren’t any happenings so far, after yesterday’s extreme happenings. I’ve been busy — damn it — so quit giving me a hard time.

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Interesting Bullet Points on the State of Retail Heading into Shopping Season

I’m analyzing Apparel Stores in this post to give you an idea of what’s taking place outside Amazon. Retailfags try to justify the horrid state of retail by merely pointing to great success at Amazon. WRONG. You cannot simply ignore a major shift in human behavior that was built on economies of scale reliant upon shopping malls and the real estate they occupy.

Total revenues: $107 billion
Total FCF: $6.4 billion
Median YTD return: -20%
Median QT earnings growth: -36%
Median QT revenue growth: -1.35%

PE: 15.6x
PS: 0.39x (lowest since 2006)

Formula for success: earnings growth, as demonstrated by GES and GPS this year. People have resigned themselves to the idea that revenues will drop. Like in the case with McDonald’s, investors want to see massive downsizing and profits increase. Whoever is able to shrink their footprint fastest will win.

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Former Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort Charged with Massive Money Laundering Scheme

It’s Mueller Monday and here’s my take on the indictment.

This guy was, allegedly, a MAJOR LEAGUE money launderer for Ukraine aka Russian interests — washing $18 million. How stupid was the Trump campaign for letting this guy run the show? I mean, any private eye worth his salt could’ve dredged up enough doubts to keep this guy off the team, let alone have him run it. I know there is a stringent vetting process and I cannot reconcile how they would knowingly bring in a guy like this, unless of course they wanted to.

Even if you think Trump is a crook and was doing Russia’s bidding, hiring Manafort would make even less sense under those circumstances, as it would draw attention to them.

I am supremely confident that these charges will stick and both Manafort and Gates will serve a minimum of 5 years in prison, if not a lot more. The government is rarely wrong when it comes to AML charges and this is fairly straightforward — very trackable and easy to prosecute.

Now the next question is, will Manafort and Gates talk, giving up someone close to Trump or perhaps Trump himself?

What’s interesting to note is Rick Gates, who was Manafort’s junior shill, also worked for Tom Barack — Trump’s very close billionaire buddy. I read somewhere that Gates had visited the WH as recently as June.

All of this makes for extreme happenings and we should all expect everything to quicken hereinafter. I can’t wait to see all of the shit Trump tweets as the Mueller lasso gets closer to his big Orange Gorilla neck.

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Morgan Stanley Gets Bearish on Crypto-Mining as Bitcoin Hits Record Highs

Not a fan of crypto-mining and all of its indecorous trimmings. But how does this god damned downgrade of AMD by Morgan Stanley make sense? This is a simple if-then scenario, right? If the price of cryptos are at record highs and trending higher, then more people will want to mine for these valuable items. Yes?

Ok, so where is the logic with this downgrade of AMD, who is a major player in providing miners with GPU power to get the damned tokens?

Morgan Stanley reduced its rating for AMD shares to underweight from equal-weight, predicting cryptocurrency mining and gaming console demand for its graphics chip business will falter in 2018.

The company’s shares are down 4 percent in Monday’s premarket session after the report. The stock declined 13.5 percent Wednesday, a day after it gave fourth-quarter profitability guidance below some Wall Street estimates.

AMD’s “fundamental outlook is not quite as robust as microprocessor momentum has been slow to build, offset by cryptocurrency gains,” analyst Joseph Moore wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We believe that AMD’s graphics surge has been caused by a sharp increase in sales of graphics chips to cryptocurrency miners. We expect this to meaningfully decelerate next year.”

Moore lowered his price target for AMD shares to $8 from $11, representing 32 percent downside from Friday’s close.

The analyst predicts cryptocurrency mining driven sales for AMD’s graphics chips will decline by 50 percent next year or a $250 million decline in revenue. He also forecasts video game console demand will decline by 5.5 percent in 2018.

“We expect cryptocurrency to gradually fade from here, consoles to decline, and graphics to be flattish,” he wrote. “To be clear, we admire what the company has accomplished on a fraction of its competitors’ budgets in both microprocessors and graphics – our cautious view is based entirely on the current stock price, and the limited potential for upside in 2018 and beyond.”

He’s predicting a 50% drop in mining related sales, or $250 million. I bet you shitheads thought AMD and NVDA were soaring because MUH video games. Wrong. The entire rally in both AMD/NVDA is predicated on crypto mining. When that party ends, so will the rallies in those stocks.

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Morning Poppers (Hollywood is Gonna Burn Edition)

Morning Gents,

Kevin Spacey admitted to being a depraved pedophile last night, something I am sure fellow members of the NFLX hit show House of Cards rue. Already, Mrs. Fly said she refuses to watch ‘anymore of his depravity’ which says a lot. The normies are going to pick up pitched forks along the way to BURNING Hollywood to the ground and to a cinder.

Naturally, the media is downplaying the pedo part and instead focusing on Spacey’s super-gay coming out party.

And then there’s this.

All of that is having zero effect on stocks, with Europe slightly higher and Nasdaq futures flat. Shares of NFLX are higher in the pre-market.

Shares of M were downgraded at Citi this morning. That’s not gonna stop a god damned single person from buying those shares of the presumptive Xmas season. The only other notable call this morning was Morgan Stanley downgrading AMD.

It’s very cold and dreary this morning, which means I’ll be driving my kids to school. On the way back, after they’re out of the car, I’ll turn on Howard Stern and see what that absolute degenerate is up to — which is usually nothing at all but cock-smacking contests or any other variety of homo-erotic horseshit. He does, however, do the best interviews and I always enjoy those.

I expect stocks will trade down today, possibly producing a great entry point for dip buyers. But I don’t have an appetite for more stocks ahead of Hallow’s Eve. Too scary.

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Sunday Dinner Time and Futures Are Essentially Flat

I spent the balance of my day shopping, more or less — first for clothes and then for groceries. I find that I am no longer interested in buying clothes for myself and just do it for others now. Food, that’s another story. I enjoy buying delicacies and am open to all sorts of fare. This evening I made some steamed clams in a seafood stock, emblazoned by white wine and heavy doses of truffle salt. It was delicious. Since this is the season of pumpkin, I paired it with a fine pumpkin ale and it was great.

I gave my dog, Twinkie, my last clam. She ate it right out of the shell and began chewing on the empty shell with grave intensity. I marveled at her ignorance and then quickly took the clam away from her, fearing it would choke her to death.

On the stove now, sizzling loudly and splashing corn oil onto my stove, backsplash, and floor is some floured wild cod. I don’t buy farmed raised fish anymore because I once saw a documentary that said it was the equivalent to eating out of a toilet bowl.

I’m sipping on my third glass of pumpkin ale now and my wife texted our good friend Dave, who is a former NYPD detective, that we were doing so. Dave is a brave man, 10 years my senior, who likes to laugh at my forays into flavored ale. He likes the simple things in life: fine cigars, Irish whiskey, and plain ale.

I haven’t broken my vegan diet yet, despite complaining about it every hour. Truth is, when I start something, I like to finish it and I feel bad breaking my ridiculous vegan diet. After I wrote that I just realized I had been eating fish all day — so I’m really a pescatarian. At a minimum, this experience will enable me to communicate well with other vegans, making fine conversation.

My wife just informed me that the wild cod was a disaster. She’s been drinking pumpkin ale with me and I think that had something to do with it. I didn’t take the kids to the local haunted farm this year — because they’re getting older and they said it was for babies. I really hate the fact that they’re getting older and can’t wait until they grow old enough to produce grandchildren for me. There’s nothing better than life and pumpkin ale, during Halloween, at a haunted farm, with small children.

Dow futures are down by 20, but does it really matter?

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Ten Thousand Apologies: Boot Camp Refunds Have Been Issued

The cancelation of the Boot Camp was unexpected, otherwise I would’ve never promoted it or gone though the trouble or doing an early bird special and collecting funds in advance of the event. I took some more time out of my day this evening, after binge watching season 2 of Stranger Things, which I felt was a marked improvement over season 1, and issued refunds for the people who signed up.

You should start to see refunds by early next week. If, by chance, you do not see your funds back into your bank accounts by next week, be sure to email me and I will triple check to ensure you’re made whole.

I apologize for the inconvenience. If I’m ever drifting through your town, I’ll be sure to buy you a drink and tell you a fine story.

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Here are the Top Ranked Stocks and ETFs in Exodus

I’m a very busy man and do not have time to discuss VIOLENCE IN BARCELONA as a result of Catalonian independence. I do not care about their freedoms, no more than I care about the lint on my top hat. I simply brush it to the side and jog on.

I will, however, drop some tickers here — the top ranked stocks, by technicals, in Exodus. I intend to venture off to a haunted farm tonight in an effort to truly scare my children, who now believe they’re too old for these sort of things. Please.




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Believe it or Not: Stocks Really Did Poorly This Week

As the Nasdaq jerks off into outerspace, and Bezos’ net worth eclipses $90 billion, I am bemused to inform you that most stocks performed miserably this week. As a point in fact, the SPY charged higher by just 0.55% — but the divergence amongst market caps was palpable. Only a select few stocks did well and I can prove it.

Inside Exodus, each and every week I break down the performance by market cap. This is for my quant based trading, which, by the way, legged higher by 0.91% for the week — almost doubling the returns for the SPY. Only stocks with market caps over $50 billion traded up for the week. To that end, they only traded up by 0.08%, while stocks under $1 billion traded lower by 1%.

Both TLT and GLD did poorly, so I am still 80% stocks, 20% cash. I will, however, be moving up the market cap ladder — all in on stocks with market caps over $50 billion.

Exodus members can access the market cap screen here.

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Want a Reason to Join Exodus? Here’s One

Over the years my swing trading acumen has greatly diminished — mostly because I’ve focused much of my efforts in systematic trading — trying to find a better way to do this without killing myself in the process. God damn it, some of my trades have been lousy and I used to be very proud of my skillset in dealing with the daily reverberations of the market. The older I get and the more wealth that I try to accumulate, the greater my desire to produce something that will last longer than my lifespan — which is why Exodus is so important to me.

That aside, Ragin Cajun is probably the most overlooked blogger I’ve ever employed at iBC. RC is the type of guy you’d trust raising your kids — never bitter and rarely upset. You could tell by just meeting him that he was raised by good parents and taught the difference between right and wrong from early on. But he’s also a phenomenal trader and old school members of 12631 and Exodus can attest to that.

Today is a big day for RC, not only because he just opened his biggest gym to date and completed what was his largest construction project ever, but also because of some of his recent trades in TWTR, GOOGL, OLED and FSLR.

Members of Exodus get his expertise, as well as the camaraderie of a truly great group of people who’ve been on top of every tick of every day in this market. I am truly thinking about doing another iBC dinner in 2018 and inviting a random 5 people from the Pelican Room to join us to break bread. I haven’t held an annual dinner in two or three years; it might be time to restart the tradition that brought us all together.

RC just stepped into my world, long HMNY. While I do not expect the stock to do much without news, I love the fact that it’s so hated right now. This is the time to accumulate a position. No one is expecting profits out of it — just damned subscription growth — which should be a no brainer, considering they’re giving away money.

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