18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,227 Blog Posts

A Decade Later: The ECB is Still in Crisis Mode — New Bank Lending Programmes Revealed

This is getting sort of ridiculous. I think it’s evident to anyone watching Europe that they’re in a permanent state of QE. I recall writing about POMO and how America would be in QE for life, but we ended up half-assing our way out of QE. Look at Europe, just today announcing TLTRO-III — lasting thru 2021.

TLTRO-III is the third European bank lending program, offering bailout styled cheap rates to bedraggled banks living on their continent.

Rates go unchanged at 0% for marginal lending and -0.4% for deposits. European citizens are in a constant state of beatdown by their banks.

Part of this, of course, has to do with Italy entering a recession towards the end of 2018. Had Europe opted to reset their banking system and let them fail — perhaps they’d be healthier now. Alas, living in a world with zombified banks requires constant vigilance.

ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday that there has been a “sizable moderation in economic expansion that will extend into the current year.”

“While there are signs that some of the idiosyncratic domestic factors dampening growth are starting to fade, the weakening in economic data points to a sizable moderation in the pace of the economic expansion that will extend into the current year.”

The only great market move, based on this news, is the euro sharply lower vs the dollar — now off by 0.5%

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Today’s Beige Book confirmed what I told you FUCKERS weeks ago, when I discussed AMKR.

In their recent call, the chip maker for the iPhone said sales DROPPED OFF A FUCKING CLIFF — off by 30%. But the stock rallied and the market bounced because they said their customers believe Q2 will be better than Q1. Today’s Beige Book numbers confirm that — so it’s not really news, only for absolute retards.

Two [firms] reported substantial drops in sales and two reported significant weakness. The two firms that reported serious issues were a semiconductor manufacturer and a furniture builder…. The semiconductor firm sells mostly to the auto industry and said that a 40 percent drop in new orders from China was the biggest fall in sales since the collapse of Lehman in 2008. Two other firms, both with heavy exposure to semiconductors, said that the market had slowed significantly since earlier in 2018 –

Additionally, Fed’s Williams had all sort of idiotic things to say at an economic forum today, such as considering negative rates here during the next crisis.

The lowlights.

Major risks to U.S. economy are global.
Financial conditions have partially reversed 2018 decline, but a lot of that is due to Fed.
Inflation risks don’t seem to be out there at all right now.
I don’t have a particular lean on where rates should go.
In a downturn we could consider quantitative easing, negative rates.
Cost-benefit tradeoffs of negative rates not as favorable as quantitative easing.
No decisions have been made on inflation framework.
We’re not trying to achieve high inflation.
No answer on when balance sheet normalization will end.
Inflation expecations are well behaved but it’s worth considering consequences if below target for an extended period.

Can’t wait for the next crisis to begin.

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Only fools think the market is going up now — absolute cave-apes, absolutely.

Data out of China suggests (dot dot dot) LOWER PRICES.

Nasdaq futures are off by 18. Sure, my longs will shed value tomorrow — some of which are negatively correlated to the market — so I might get lucky. But I’m smartly positioned in SOXS, TVIX and TZA.

What the fuck are you positioned in — bank stock calls?

Why am I short?

Well, because we could not break past $175 on the QQQs and because today was a behavioral shift in stocks — marked and noted by three down days in a row. I suppose some of you have a mind for this sort of thing — but, regrettably, most of you are sub 100 IQers who move on instinct — see shit, break something, fuck something, burp.

I spit in your general direction.

Ladies and gentlemen, the President.

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If You’re Heavily Long — Be Worried

I ended up taking this day trade RENN into tomorrow — even though I’m 99% sure it will trade lower tomorrow. To pair that, I am long SOXS, TVIX and TZA — with a variety of longs — none of which are meaningful.

If you’re heavily long here and betting on a surge tomorrow — GOOD LUCK. Odds are we’ll trade sharply lower. I’d keep a close eye on WTI in the overnight session and ignore anything you hear or see on CNBC.

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Doubled up on $RENN

I missed the sale at $2.45, would’ve netted me an intra-day gain of 41%. Now that I’m back in the saddle, able to trade, I did something I should never do — buy more of a stock knifing lower after hitting a recent high. The technicals for RENN are now deplorable and I really should be closing out this trade — chalking up to an unfortunate event. There will be many missed calls and unfortunate events; and I’m already numb to the idea that this too could end up going the same way as so many other missed calls during my time in these markets.

But I won’t let it just slip away so easily.

I have a mind for this sort of thing — doing incredulous things — simply because I feel like doing them.

Plainly, you should not follow me into this trade — just wait and see how it works out. Consider it an idle form of passive entertainment.

NOTE: I sold LITB +15.5% one day hold.

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All the Confirmation I Need: Market is Breaking Down, Barreling Lower

Whether we delve into the depths of the recent crisis or not is not relevant. What is important to note is the uptrend has broken and we’re now breaking lower — paired nicely with a break in oil and also junk bonds. This is all early stages and the drama can get all the more rueful.

I’ve been spending my morning, reading, amongst other things, planning on how to best capture the essence of the fires to come. I’ve been selling out of my recent Chinese gambles — since they were meant to be quick trades. No sense in holding onto dead weight, whilst the ship is sinking.

I sold CCCL -6%, JP -9%, SFUN -7%, and SORL -2%.

I bought SOXS — because betting against semis is fun and easy to do.

My trading account is about 50% cash and I’ll be unwinding the majority of my long positions soon.

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OECD: Italy GDP to Contract by 0.2% — Worst Since 2013

Finally, the I in PIGS is barreling back towards perdition. According to the OECD, Italy’s economy will contract this year — marking its worst showing for Europe’s largest indebted nation since 2013.

The OECD slashed its forecast for the Italian economy to a 0.2 percent contraction this year, reflecting the effects of the global trade slowdown.

Italy fell into recession at the end of 2018, and is still battling the slump despite a recent increase in exports, fixed investment and domestic consumption. Premier Giuseppe Conte’s government has been dismissive of economists’ negative outlooks, saying output will increase later this year.

Italy’s projected 0.2 percent contraction this year would be the worst performance since the country’s output fell 1.7 percent in 2013. The latest figure compares with 0.9 percent growth foreseen by the OECD in November.

The Paris-based organization said Italy will return to growth next year, but with only a 0.5 percent expansion.

The OECD did see some bright spots for Italy, including lower headline inflation and supportive fiscal measures.

Recession is the trick word here. This should also pair wonderfully with the specter of a ‘COMPLETELY INSANE’ debt plan by their new populist government.

This from October of last year.

Amongst all European countries, Italy is the worst, financially. I’m sure none of this means anything to the likes of you — boozehounds only intrigued by events happening in real time — unable or willing to extrapolate the details of something so insidious as this — it menaces all with the prospects of perfidy.

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Girls at Bloomberg: Trump Interested in China Trade Deal to Pump Stock Prices Higher

Some girls named Jennifer Jacobs and Saleha Mohsin has a source who says Trump wants to ink a deal with China, not for the benefit of the American people, but to buoy share prices — in what can only be the most narcissitic thing a person has ever done in the history of the world.

Now to the girls to see this ground-breaking reporting.

President Donald Trump is pressuring U.S. trade negotiators to cut a deal with China soon in hope of fueling a market rally, as he grows increasingly concerned that the lack of an agreement could drag down stocks, according to people familiar with the matter.

As trade talks with China advance, Trump has noticed the market gains that followed each sign of progress, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. He watched U.S. and Asian stocks rise on his decision to delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for March 1, one of the people said.

Trump’s fixation on stock-market performance has shaped his assessments of his economic policies. Top White House staff know to be aware of how markets are performing when summoned to the Oval Office to speak with Trump because the president often asks: ‘‘What’s happening with the markets?’’

Trump’s economic team has told him an agreement will unleash a market rally, the people said. Advocates of a compromise with China have also told Trump it is crucial to cut a deal soon to reap the full boost ahead of the election because benefits such as more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other products will have a delayed impact and take time to reverberate through the economy, they said.

“The risk could be more to the downside, but on the other hand this would take away some certainty and that is good for companies looking to invest,” said Sebastien Page, head of global multi-asset strategy at T. Rowe Price in Baltimore. “If we get a meaningful trade deal, there is some upside scenarios for emerging market stocks.”

There you have it. The President, most likely due to his failure as a CEO to create any form of shareholder value — performing one public display of bankruptcy after the next, is a box watcher. He watches the markets, just like you and me, hoping for the love of God that Larry Judlow performs some form of magic to get the obstinate Chinese to broker a deal with him — just so he can cavort around the country telling people how well stocks did during his tenure.

BONUS: Jen chimes in on the trade deficit. Tariff man is so screwed.


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Any Interest in These Fucking Charts?

Futures are lower tonight. No big fucking deal — unless you’re into that sort of thing.

Here’s a few charts for you road-slobs.

look at it

Look At It


That’s nice.


I’m reading Trimalchio, which I’m sure you haven’t the slightest idea what that even means, nor do you care. Slow, dim-witted, indecorous, green faced with a  slimy countenance of a wraith — ghostly and ghastly beyond descript,  weaving away from the natural radiance that enchants all men of honor and dignity —  ruefully at the meridian of everything I hate.

Good nite.

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