We are Waiting for War

Some believe Iran will strike “while the iron is hot” and others believe they’ll strike “soon.” I tend to lean on a fortnight or at the very most two weeks.

While one week is possible and 3 weeks too long, I do believe 14 days is the proper amount of time to wait for war. There are many things that can and will happen, once war begins. The only question is: “when do you think it’ll happen?”

I think about this often and have sifted through endless documents trying to find a timeframe and after all of my research I’ve concluded it’ll happen in exactly one day less than 15 days. Perhaps in about a half month’s time we’ll look back on this most and consider it to be prescient. The Persians rarely bluff and are well known warriors, so it’s only a matter of time now.

Dear Sirs —

I am obligated to inform you that I do believe markets are at the precipice of sheer and utter collapse. However, I will preface that bold statement with a disclosure: I am almost always thinking markets will collapse and find myself often disappointed by the specter of it all “working out in the end” so very often.

I closed near my session lows of -2.2%, mostly due to a very large $UVIX position gone sideways (actually fucking lower) on me late in the day. I did not sell it because I am obligated to have shorts into tomorrow. Whether I make to lose money is immaterial. Some things are more important than money, such as being involved at the very beginning of what could end up being THE TOP for 2024.

Bear in mind, the dollar index ran higher today with oil and all of the banks and interest rate sensitive companies fell through the fucking floorboards. Look, it’s all very mundane stuff and I am sorry you just don’t get it. The point is we are at a crossroads from which true disaster might materialize, especially if the regionals start to tank and all of the companies who depend on refinancing their credit to remain in business. Let’s not even delve into ‘cash sorting’ and the housing market just yet. Today was merely the opening salvo of what might turn into an orchestral masterpiece of gloom, regret, and cataclysm.

I am happy to have lost some coin today, as it gives me the proper motivation to get it all back. I am heavily long oils, short bonds, short small caps, and long volatility into tomorrow.

See you catamites tomorrow.

If you’d just entertain me for a moment I’d like to remind you that the housing market is fucked, as well as the regional banks, and quite possible REITs. The US 10yr is now at session highs above 4.5%, +15bps, with eyes on MOAR. It’s important to remember that the entire western economic scheme is predicted on low interest rates. Now with rates moving higher, eventually, all will collapse.

Meanwhile, we are seeing some bogged pin action in various financials today. In a perfect world, this small start will soon blossom into something much larger.

$RKT -11%, $VLY -8.5%, $FNF -8%, $NYCB -7%, $VNO -7%, $IVZ -7%, $BXP -5.5%, $OZK -5%, $ZION -5%

Bear in mind, the treasuries are still on the books of the balance sheets and the regionals need tier 1 capital to pass stress tests, meaning they’ll either have to sell at heinous losses or raise capital or simply go out of business. Because of this, I have a position in $FAZ and will hold it at least until tomorrow, in the hopes that rates continue to climb and this causes fractures in the banking system — permitting me to profit from its eventual demise.

Because the CPI came in hot, bond yields have soared 13bps to 4.5% on the 10yr, the dollar +0.9% v euro, and stocks have collapsed. I’m of course greatly chagrined by this all, especially since I came into today 141% leveraged with just 20% short. I had to pare down my longs immediately to get me into a slightly net short position and now possess losses of 1.75% for the day. I did not think the CPI number was going to be deleterious since Biden rigs everything. He is all knowing, a true Machiavellian genius hiding behind a grotesquely large cone of iced cream.

My temptation is to unequivocally tell you that “it’s over” and there’s no way the housing market can sustain at 9% mortgages and how the idea of a rate cut is now fantasy. But I’ve learned many lessons the past two years and will not underestimate the stupidity of my fellow trader, to get in that fucking market right now and bid $NVDA higher.

I wish I had more bad news to give you, such as broken elevator cable pin action, or some regional bank about to bust lower on liquidity concerns. After all, they’re all leveraged long treasuries at fresh fucking lows.

But it’s all papered over and we live in fantasy land.

I’m 42% cash, 20% short, still thinking on which direction to bet on.

The last few days only by God’s grace am I still at record highs. In another reality where I am not favored by celestial beings, I’d be hammered into an early fucking grave — trading loose and poor. I find myself chasing whimsical fairytales like a fucking pussy. What I need is, I need religious fervor back to solidify a backbone to my idealism in my trades.

I blew a +170bps gain and finished +67bps, HIGHLY FUCKING LEVERAGED at 141% of assets — pared with some fucking $UVIX and $TZA hedges. Late in the day, I was tricked and fooled into buying $VMEO, some retarded third tier video platform after seeing an immense volume and price spike. I was almost sure there was a takeover rumor causing the shares to spike. Fifteen minutes later, I’m down 5% and it ruined my day.

Even though I finished the day with gains and am merely 1% off the session highs, I feel like I lost 10%. Tomorrow, I am cleaning house in a number of ways and will be switching up my trading methods to conform with, but not limited to, conviction beliefs emanating from my very high IQ — eschewing the refuse and the autistically evil day trading gambits which too often consumes me.

If I don’t step away from the computer, I find myself glued to the screens, whoring my money out to any stock shaking its ass for any number of screens running on any number of my monitors. The madness ends now.

Back on March 15th, I warned the fucking readers here of impending rotation out from tech and into basic materials. I blogged about potential rotation for weeks afterwards, warning you of its eventuality based upon the laws of seasonality. Hopefully, a few of you didn’t chase the other dodo birds off the slide of the cliff and into hot tar pits and instead enjoy the comforts I now enjoy long the oils.

I do not need to explain these things to any of you reading. Giving you information to trade on is like throwing it away. If you want to trade better and watch me do it in real time, join Stocklabs while I am still here for you. Very soon I might get bored and moved onto other things, and you’ll still be there like fucking morons attempting option gambits with half your accounts — blowing the fuck up and out of the business for good.

I am +127bps today, focused on basic materials and trading freely in this session. I have a small 6% position in $UVIX which is largely ceremonial and it makes me feeeeeel better having something there to protect me in case of imminent nuclear war. Meanwhile,

Look at me, +18.6% for 2024, coming off +55.5% for 2023, +61% for 2022, +218% for 2021: who can fucking stop me?

Good day —

I was positioned courrectly and stand before you +125bps for the session. I caught some winners early and pared them down, then hedged with a $UVIX position into the crevasse, booking a 6% gain in the process. I am now unhedged, long mostly commodity stocks, 63% cash.

I am sanguine on this tape and believe it to be ok, in spite of the shit quality of the runners. Even so, I am not compelled to buy just yet and will bide my time waiting in the tall grass, in hopes of spotting a weak zebra straying from the pack, at which point I will chase it down and bite it’s fucking head off — enjoying a delicious meal and feeling good about it because of my effort.

Sirs —

With a heavy heart, I’d like to report losses for the session of 43bps. I tried, and failed, to extricate myself from this fate; but in the end I succumbed to a most heinous day.

In other news, I defied the wishes of Mrs. Fly and discarded her retard eclipse glasses and looked directly into the Sun to bear witness to whatever the hell was happening up there. As a man, I felt it was my duty to find out and if I’m being honest with you — my eyes hurt a little.

No worries — as a small boy I often played baseball and stared directly into the heart of the Sun many times — using my glove as cover. Even though I had no glove today, I feel confident that I can wade through this ordeal and come out the other end with my 20/10 vision intact.

To be honest about my vision, I do find it to be a little blurry in the mornings — an annoying thing to happen to a person, such as myself, as I have always had fighter pilot vision.

Into tomorrow, I am confident my portfolio of garbage will produce gains, at least I hope. I say “garbage” because that’s exactly what I got roped into — chasing chasers and attempting to catch some lightning inside of my bottle.

Nevertheless, this risk profile I am now embedded in is in fact temporary and I’ll get back to comporting myself with some dignity very soon.

Good Day —

Today is the day of the GREAT SOLAR ECLIPSE, whereby the psychopaths at CERN rev up another one of their occult projects. Meanwhile, the entire State of California is to collpse and break off from American and perhaps float all the way to N. Korea, where they’ll all be placed into prison camps by General Kim.

After the eclipse we are almost certain to bear the brunt of fantastical natural disasters and subsequent earthquakes, flattening out of the olde topography, as they used to say during biblical times. It really could not happen to a more deserving state, California — mostly all reprobates and mountebanks — an area of the world concentrated with swindlers traversing one another with the intent of injury. I have been there once in my life for about a week and was easily allured by its beautiful weather, people, and exquisite cuisine. I made sure to never visit California again, as I deemed it to be a place of evil incarnate — a garden of eden if you will filled with pink cocaine clouds and vast and lush fields of cannabis.

But it’s all over soon and when California BREAKS OFF AND FLOATS TO NORTH KOREA — America will be better for it, minus the part where we’ll miss their wonderful wines, avocados and money.

I am just getting started with my trading day, off by 10bps, doing lovely in my strategic, as I am long $BITX into this $BTC melt up.

Relax — war is coming — just not yet. I know many of you attempted to profiteer on potential war between Iran and Israel — thinking a premium might be affixed to crude in the event. My sense is, nothing will happen until after Ramadan, which ends Tuesday night.

So the trade is as follows: lean into the 1.5% WTI dip, keep buying gold/silver/bitcoin — make sure to hedge for downside action in stocks — wait for happenings. Pardon the macabre commentary on potential loss of life — but this is my coping mechanism: I profit from it. I can lament and whither in the wind or I can use my God given talents to read the tea leaves and make money off it.

I choose the latter.

Futures are obliging and odds are Iran will do something very mid, a feeble attempt at war, as it customary amongst people in the Middle East who seem unable or unwilling to defend themselves.

On the much bigger issue: Russian Urals crude is only 5% from WTI, indicative of TIGHT supply. Ergo, buy the fucking dips.