iLoseCoin Dot Com

Hashtag loser.

I started off the year in a most heinous indecorous manner — by way of losing coin in an otherwise fine market. I like to judge myself versus my Quant, which is more or less market performance and that motherfucker was up 2.55% today.

Now I normally would blame the loss of 1.1% on myself, typically due to some fucked trading. But this wasn’t the case today. Today the Gods rained golden showers upon my head, as I optimistically barreled into 2022 long SAAS and other fine sectors. Well, those fucking stocks got their brains blown out. These were my booked losses in the morning.

So I was long bonds, gold, old man stocks, software for alpha, and an SQQQ hedge. I could not be placed in a more wrong position today, as the inverse of all those things occurred. If not for my 10% position in LABU — I’d be routed.

I am long LABU for seasonal factors. But that same narrative also exists in January for SAAS.

Seasonal returns for LABU

My curse aside, gains were concentrated in small caps today and excuse me if I don’t believe in this shit anymore. Each an every time we get a run in the smalls, we get the smalls routed.

BIG PICTURE: Off by 1.1% isn’t the end of the world and I could easily make it back tomorrow. The greater story for me is this feels more like a continuation of a tape designed to be tricky. By the grace of God, I was able to retain all of my gains last year and I’d be lying if I told you it was easy. I really hated the market last year and I hate it this year too, so far.

If you positioned in risk averse stocks or SAAS, you were flayed to start off 2022. Strength is heavily concentrated in small caps, energy. retail. Even crypto miners are gapping up.

I, on the other hand, was positioned exactly wrong. I had an SQQQ hedge, long treasuries, long gold, long risk averse, and long SAAS. The only reason why I’m down 120bps is because I also had a 2x position in LABU and lots of cash.

Honestly, it’s as if the Gods themselves cherry-picked bad stocks based upon what I was holding. I liquidated my quant left over from December and will push out a new one for Jan by 1pm. That is up 2.2% today and I’m here with cursed stocks to start off to year.

FML

Predictions are stupid and since blogging I’ve realized what’s hot in the beginning of the year often gets completely destroyed and turned upside down by late in the year. Having said that, and also bearing in mind that most of my predictions in the past were heavily influenced by recency bias, I’m going to do that opposite for my 2022 predictions.

Inflation will peak and commodities will collapse
Tech stocks will rebound sharply
COVID will disappear, the vaccines and boosters will be proven successful
Biotech stocks will do best followed by tech. Basic materials will do worst
Lockdowns and mandates will cease to exist. People will forget they ever happened
Democrats will increase seats in congress and do great in 2022 elections
TWTR will hit a new record high
Hedge fund managers will become stylish again
Crypto popularity will peak and prices will triple
TSLA will be cut in half
The Mets will win the World Series
Biden popularity will skyrocket
Real estate prices will finally drop, enabling people to better afford homes
Democrats and Republicans will unite in their love for country
No wars in 2022. Biden will ink a peace treaty with Russia
Chinese stocks will soar, led by BABA
Trust in media will recover; CNN ratings will be #1
Traditional women will beat trans-women in all sporting events
Cruise ships will be booked solid throughout 2022
Crime rates will collapse
The Trump library will be built in San Francisco
“The Fly” will be super happy, dedicate his Twitter feed for good news only.

SIR

I am preparing the chickened wings and will be eating a giant heroed sandwich tonight, with GOBS of fried chicken on it and other accouterments. I just returned from the Town of Cary CHINESE LANTERN FESTIVAL, which had zero Chinese people in it — just an assortment of cowboys in big hats and Ford shirts cavorting around with their little children running rampant.

Now home, I am trying to drown out this past week of trading with an excessive quantity of booze. I have my country music blasting, much to the chagrin of ANTIFA FLY, blogging now and hoping to wish whoever is reading this a happy New Year’s. Know this and don’t ever forget it, no matter how often I curse you out and call you a piece of shit, you fucking internet people are priceless to me. I sometimes feel like Stocklabs should be free — because I get so much out of the community in there. The great part of the internet is being able to build community with people you enjoy talking to.

Thank you from the bottom of my black heart for being part of my world and let’s do something great in 2022.

Stay safe and go tell someone you love them.

What a year. This wasn’t easy and I didn’t have fun. There is always an under current of fuckery, but none as much as 2021. This was a year of science and totalitarianism, supported in whole by democracies in the west and also supported by its people in the name of MUHHHHH health. There was nothing I particularly enjoyed about 2021 and I really really despise the timeline we’re in now.

This was also a year of the Tera cap and fuck you you’re dead pin action in the smalls. Healthcare stocks were racked for -25% and tech posted a down year too. If you weren’t in stocks with caps over $100b, you had a hard time trading. The allure of grandiosity kept me going back to the small capped well over and over and over again. I wanted to relive the past, the halcyon days of 2020 when making coin in the market was simple and refreshing, without fear or reprisals. Now we have chop and there is a distinct malevolence to the tape and although I made over 220% for 2021 I do not feeeel good because I know to achieve those types of returns in 2022 I’ll need a fucking miracle. It simply cannot be done given the market I’m trading now, at least with my methods. In order to perform on a level like that I’d need to run naked with my balls out without fear, and I’m simply not prepared or willing to do that now.

The issue is cushion. I’d need to be up fast and big to take outsized risk and the market has not been momentum oriented. Instead we get mean reversion chop, which is why I’m dedicating an account to my mean reversion algorithms in Stocklabs for 2022.

I’ll do another post before the New Year’s celebrations begin. But if you don’t get a chance to read it, happy tidings and best to you and your families. I want to see you succeed and do well and be happy.

That was a dreadfully traumatizing session, typical of 2021. We spiked early and painted sideways until late noon. Thinking the low volume end of year session would result in a ramp into the close, I bet early we would BUST LOOSE through the fag-box and cut dick offs on the way up.

See that fucking box? The plan was simple: Buy the breakout, short the breakdown.

I opened the day +90bps after some early success, remained mostly in cash, and then LEVERAGED UP to 125% of my principle and was enjoying life, increasing gains to +145bps until the fucking bottom dropped out. I kept stops tight at 1-1.5% and sold on the way down and bought UVXY, TZA and SRTY to hedge. As the selling increased, I continued to pare down my losers until very few were left. I then took a gambit on the long side, still errantly believing we could ramp the close.

Along my newly added longs I bought TMF and AU, both also considered defensive as a play on lower rates in a risk off environ and of course gold.

My new longs, aside from TMF and AU, didn’t pan out much better and several were sold almost immediately. In the final 10 mins I reapplied my hedges, 2x TZA and 1x UVXY and closed +28bps with 40% cash.

Fucking retarded.

I could’ve just done nothing and kept my +90bps. Instead, typical of this fucking cock-tease of a year, I chased the dream and it ended up having Freddy Krueger in it attempting to slice and dice me up into pieces.

Into tomorrow’s finale, I expect more of the same.

We need to bust loose from this FAGBOX.

We’re firing off fucking trades inside Stocklabs. Big concentration in Chinese burritos and software. For 2022, biggest gainers will be, potentially, in Chicoms and biotech — both sectors absolutely ravaged in 2021.

Into the bell, I am 120% long, no hedges, +120bps.

Volume is off by 40%, so view today as a gift, whereby Junior at the trading turret is permitted to run amok in an otherwise fully hedged account in his attempts to squeeze gamma. I would expect a final salvo in the market tomorrow, one of a profound bullish nature.

On the issue of the country and what to expect in 2022: we were up 28% this year and although small caps did poorly, with healthcare stocks off by 40% and many growth sectors off by a third, we still did quite well.

If forced to guess, I’d barter for a gap down during the first week of January. Best way to avoid a harsh bogging would be to enter 2022 with a large cash position, perhaps a little gold, and hedged. If you had an account worth $100k, then maybe you should consider $30k in TZA to hedge against fuckery.

I’ll try to blog a year in review later on today. For now, just know that the IWM is trading sideways and looking poor. I would not allocate now and would advise you to wait for late afternoon to position for tomorrow. I cleared out most of my positions in the morning and now sit mostly in cash, +90bps.

These two charts are analogous in many respects and there’s nothing you can do about it

It’s HOOD vs GS and it has always been that way. There will be brief periods of time when the Third Estate thinks they’ll make it — vis a vie “MEME STOCKS” and they’ll feeeeeel really good about themselves and go off on proliferate spending sprees to demonstrate their success. They do this for sex — because carnal desires are the demands of the unwashed — over-sexed, over-medicated, over-margined fucking morons. Now that the dust has settled and you bear witness to your NFTs at zero and BX at record highs, will you look inward?

Of course you won’t — because that would entail admitting to being wrong and if there’s one thing we know about the canaille is Dunning Kreuger runs strong with them.

Did you think Trump was gonna build a wall? Did you think Biden was going to unite America? Do you think Pfizer cares about your health?

Leveraged long here with an FAZ starter. Banks look worst out of all the sectors, aside from healthcare. But I will not short healthcare because it’s too fucking glitchy.

Truth is, the market needs to head higher now in order to set the groundworks for the opening salvo of the GREAT CRASH OF 2022, starting the first week of January.

Are you ready for the fires?

101% leveraged long, 5% FAZ — +16bps and counting.