Getting Beat Like a Dog in a Runaway Bull Market

FLASH: Profits from the sale of “The Fly’s” book will be put towards the Orbital Space Cannon (OSC) project, designed for offensive purposes only.
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I’d like nothing more than to discuss my intellectual superiority over you, the juxtaposition of an untrained animal against the highly cultured and meaningful intellectual of “The Fly.” Sadly, I cannot do that on this very day.

I’ve been miserably dispatched in several stocks today, amidst the red cannon fire of a roaring bull market.

I was fleeeced for more than 6% in HIIQ today, thanks to President Trump and his weak strategy to kill Obamacare. I was up more than 10% on this trade yesterday and have given it all back, and more, since yesterday. My paper losses are grievous and well deserved.

In my quest to finance cigarettes of a ‘modified risk’ varietal, I’ve had my face seared by two dozen real ones. And here I am now, fanciful and wise, yet smoked out in XXII hoping for a lesser form of cancer to save me from what looks like another bad trade.

All of my gains in YELP have been washed away and now I’m slightly down. This is one of the 4 horsemen of certain death, a member of an infamous set of stocks that cracked me asunder in the winter of 2014 — sending me to an early shower and nearly to my grave.

Almost all of my gains in EDIT are now gone, after running up strong from my initial purchase. In all of my infinite wisdom, I let one in the hand escape me because I was much more interested in two in the bush.

My other stocks are up and my quant investments continue to provide me with a steady source of cash flow and performance. But before I am able to stand here, thundering over you because of my prowess, I first must establish the arc — demonstrating that I too am fallible and could, in fact, lose GOBS of money in an otherwise aesthetically pleasing market.

Seasonality fags get in here. This one is for you.

There are various reasons why certain stocks and sectors do better during certain times of the year. Without getting into the philosophy of why this occurs, let’s just look at the damned numbers, god damn it.

For October, here are the top 5 sectors and their average returns.

Regional Airlines +6.7% (ALK, JBLU, CPA)
Major Airlines +5.3% (DAL, LUV, RYAAY)
3-D Printing +4.5% (DASTY, PRLB, DDD)
Technical and System Security +4.4% (VMW, INFY, ADSK)
Security Software and Services +3.7% (CHKP, SYMC, PANW)

The worst…

Silver -4.3% (PAAS, CDE, HL)
Gold -3.5% (NEM, ABX, FNV)
Biotech -3.4% (BLUE, NBIX, EXAS)
Hospitals -3.2% (HCA, UHS, SEM)
Shipping -3% (KEX, GMLP, MATX)

Data provided by Exodus

We haven’t had any real inflation, net of population growth, in quite some time. For years, I feared the deflationary vortex, which was being worsened by wage stagnation and exportation of high paying jobs, was going to doom us all. The dichotomy between the have and have nots has progressively widened, which hasn’t meant a damned thing for stocks.

Without question, there has never been a wider chasm between Main Street and Wall Street than now. In the past, Wall Street sort of needed Main Street to drive business and produce profits, but not anymore. In a globalized economy, Wall Street merely needs Main Street to stay alive. AI and technology innovation is the main driver for higher profits. Foreign factories and a wide open immigration policy has led to lower wages, or at least stagnated them, in turn leading to higher profits.

Due to the high tax burden, regulations et al, big business has been provided with an impregnable moat that staves off competition. The big media push, via Google, Facebook, Twitter, NY Times and Networks protects these interests and promotes a socialized agenda that only serves to increase the power of the American oligarchy.

In a sense, capitalism is dead in America and has been dead in Europe for a long time. We’ve entered an era of autocracy, led by technocrats, and hardly anyone is aware that it happened.

Central Banks control the flow of money, helping banks earn easy profits that also stops them from putting money to work in the economy. And, through all of this obfuscation, stocks hit record highs, which in turn produces higher tax receipts, in turn helps keep the charade going.

The mechanization of this scheme is impressive and people won’t truly analyze what is going on until it crashes. In the meantime, we buy stocks because it’s easy and those of us who do not are ostracized and hated.

Stock Market has increased by 5.2 Trillion dollars since the election on November 8th, a 25% increase. Lowest unemployment in 16 years and..

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2017

…if Congress gives us the massive tax cuts (and reform) I am asking for, those numbers will grow by leaps and bounds. #MAGA

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2017

Now that Amazon has seized control of all the organic foods in America, Credit Suisse is calling for another dramatic leg up in its shares — which can only spell dread for KR.

“The product development perspective is that while most of the headlines around the Whole Foods acquisition have been about price cuts, we believe the real path for Amazon to create lasting shareholder value is through fulfillment and delivery via Prime Now,” analyst Stephen Ju wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

“Hence, while price cuts capture the headlines, we submit that Amazon will wage war with its competitors with service instead.”

Amazon’s real play here is Prime, expanding into Prime Now, which offers free 2 hr delivery.Currently, Prime Now is available in 198 out of 393 Whole Foods locales.

“And as the consumer value proposition for Amazon has always been the combination of price, selection, and delivery we believe the current headlines about price reductions at Whole Foods will be accompanied by expansion of Prime Now delivery-enabled zip codes,” he wrote.

Credit Suisse upped their price target to $1,350 from $1,00 this morning.

Europe is flat, but Spain is higher by 1.5%. I don’t even need to look at the news, lads. The higher Spain goes, the less freedom for Catalonia. Good for the Spaniards, keeping the dogs at bay and making sure the cash cow doesn’t break out of the barn. Beat that cow until it produces some nice sweet delicious milk.

Speaking of cows, Harvey Weinstein is off to Europe, most likely to force women to watch him take showers. It seems he was an A list pervert and possible rapist. My only question is, who did he piss off to get outed, all of a sudden?

It looks like Credit Suisse upped their price target for SNAP to $20 from $17. I wonder if they’re brains have been tampered with?

Nasdaq futs are down 3, a rather uneventful morning. I hate boring markets and prefer them to be wild, heart stopping, and hair razing. That’s right, I said razing — with a Z. Most of you out there do not know what real bull markets look like. You’ve been trading this huckleberry shit with zero volatility, hoping it could continue. Real bull markets have lunatic levels of volatility — wiping people the fuck out while hitting new highs. These markets are 100% rigged, controlled by faggots, for the faggots, in search of tax receipts. Finally, the decay and death of the west has accelerated. Spengler was right — but off by 100 years. It’s hard to time these sort of things.

Thank you for the reviews on Amazon. My little story is now #6 in Business and Money. Maybe in a week or so, we can do an open Q&A about it and I’ll give you some details that were left out. For the second part of the story, you’ll understand what it felt like to be a complete and utter jackass, ruined by the end of the good times — the pangs and the misery I underwent while being reduced to a shadow of my former self. I am reticent to begin writing it just yet — since this one was a bit of a pain in the ass. The next installment will be painful to relive. Alas, part three, 2003-2007 will be just fine — an era that marked my permanent ascendancy — and how going independent and leaving traditional brokerage firms was the best decision and the worst decision I ever made.

Here’s some analyst mumbo jumbo.

What times we’re living in. All of the guff and libertine lifestyles of the very richest has caused corporations to “shoot for the moon”, clearly trying to capitalize on the FUCKING PYRAMID SCHEMES in venture capital land. The biggest company to pursue this is Google, literally changing their name to Alphabet — hoping to investing a BUNCH OF SHIT to find the next Tesla.

Now they have company. Brimming with cash and egos, the exuberant men at Alibaba have a plan — BURN $15 BILLION in the hopes of finding the next Alibaba. At the present, they have 25,000 slave-engineers working under a $3b budget to find something cool. Time to up the ante.

They want FUCKING moonshots.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. will more than double research and development spending to $15 billion over the next three years to develop next-generation technology, drive its sprawling business and explore moonshot projects that could upend industries.

The e-commerce giant plans to set up seven research labs and hire 100 scientists around the world to delve into artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things and quantum computing, the company said in an emailed statement. Specific fields include machine learning, visual computing and network security.

The program marks a significant ramp-up in its R&D outlay and is intended to help the $469 billion behemoth keep pace with Amazon.com Inc. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. in potentially industry-changing advancements. It’s in line with ambitions voiced by top policy makers who want China to become a global leader in artificial intelligence.

“The labs will help solve issues that Alibaba is currently facing across its business lines,” Jeff Zhang, Alibaba’s chief technology officer, said in a telephone interview. “It will also be at the forefront of developing next-generation technology.”

The planned investment compares to the $6.4 billion the company spent on R&D over the past three fiscal years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It’s calling its global research program the Alibaba DAMO Academy– short for Discovery, Adventure, Momentum and Outlook. It will set up labs across China, the U.S., Russia, Israel and Singapore and fund collaborations with universities, including the University of California at Berkeley. And it’s enlisted professors from institutions such as Princeton and Harvard to sit on an advisory board.

More, more, more, MOAR.

Looking for some action today, I played myself extolling the virtues of HIIQ. It was higher by 10% this morning and I could’ve taken some BIG DICKED gains, but instead I blogged about how great it was — watching it sliver down the banister for the balance of the day until it went down.

Semis have remained strong and oil caught a bid; but today everyone’s favorite sector is the utilities. We got some chart breakouts in the water utility space and no one gives a fuck.

I’d rather kill myself than buy Utes. I’m fully committed towards the destruction of my enemies, which means that I must make money in the horsemen that plotted to murder me back in 2014. PANW is doing swell and I am grateful for the opportunity to own it. I have a lot of irons in the fire and have been ‘dumping’ money in the market, almost on a daily basis. Mrs. Fly isn’t exactly thrilled about the specter of it all. Then again, she isn’t exactly privy either.

Sometimes a man must be a man — cavort around town with a walking cane — blowing pipe smoke and ashes into the faces of people passing by. Consider today “the day after Columbus Day”, a do-nothing purgatory waiting to blow out soon.

Seasonally speaking, we’re supposed to be crashing thru the fucking floor boards now — pipes and shit hitting us in our heads on the way down — rats nibbling at our noses while we come to.

As an aside, I haven’t permitted new blood to blog at iBC for a long time. We have a rich, storied, history of providing entertaining and professional grade advice in these halls. If you want to write for us, email me at Flybroker at Gmail.com.

I am only interested in young professionals who trade a lot, with a passion for writing.

Here’s another preview from my book, which is now on sale in a digital format. The fact that only TWO of you left reviews is fucking despicable. Get in there faggots and give me stars.

Here's a preview. Everything I wrote about happened. $TR pic.twitter.com/VHtDmg16uj

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 10, 2017

FLASH: My book is out. Now go buy it.

Because they’re fucking crazy. Or are they? I tried to find info on this via Stocktwits and could not. It has become a denizen of spam and retards shitposting — utterly useless.

First off, HMNY owns 52% of Moviepass.

What is Moviepass?

For starters, the CEO is a co-founder of Netflix.

For $9.95 per month, members can see a movie once per day all month long.

What?!

Indeed, Moviepass is using the same bet that gyms make — people won’t go. They will pay the theaters the price of the ticket and stand to lose GOBS of money, should people truly go to theaters. I am certain they’re negotiating deals with theaters at lower price points, especially since more foot traffic means more popped corn sales.

AMC is not impressed.

“From what we can tell, by definition and absent some other form of other compensation, MoviePass will be losing money on every subscriber seeing two movies or more in a month,” AMC says in a statement.

AMC is, quite literally, trying to BLOCK Moviepass in their theaters. The logic is, do not get people’s hopes up with this nonsensical business model that will fail. Once it fails, people will be pissed off and never see a movie again, or something like that.

The chain says that it doesn’t object to the concept of movie subscriptions: But the one from MoviePass “is not one AMC can embrace. We are actively working now to determine whether it may be feasible to opt out and not participate in this shaky and unsustainable program.”

I find it hard to see how Moviepass can succeed with the largest theatre chain in America blocking them. With 4 million shares in the float, it probably doesn’t matter today.

Look at that stock run.

For the love of God, they only have 27,000 followers on Twitter. If this got big, HMNY would go to a gazillion.

FLASH: BUY MY FUCKING BOOK. LEAVE A 10 STAR REVIEW.

Listen to me. Trump wants to do something to Obamacare, namely destroy it. I am thru with politics, so let’s not make this about the Orange Banana. He wants to do away with the ban on acquiring healthcare plans across state lines. According to Cannacord, this HELPS HIIQ.

In the entire healthcare space yesterday, just one stocks outperformed: HIIQ.

In the healthcare plans area of $400 billion in market cap, HIIQ is the best performing stock. Ergo, simple logic dictates that there is a fuckload of demand for healthcare stocks, but not enough supply of one’s that can withstand Trump’s latest barrage. Allocators will buy HIIQ, as sure as I’m sitting here. With a market cap of $550m, I strongly advise you take a closer look at it.

I bought it yesterday.

It’s trading less than 1x sales.

It’s trading less than 1x sales.

It’s trading less than 1x sales.

It’s trading less than 1x sales.

Canaccord notes that in light of WSJ reports that President Trump intends to roll back certain health insurance regulations concerning short-term medical insurance, which should have a direct benefit to Tampa-based Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ), firm feels, “This should be positive for HIIQ: Even though 2Q’17 was still a strong quarter, we believe results would have been even better (specifically at Agile) if the Obama policy did not go into effect; thus, we believe the reversal of the three-month limitation rule will be positive for growth at Agile in addition to providing a greater sense of legitimacy for STM insurance, especially in light of the recent negative sentiment generated by the various short reports. Furthermore, we would point out that a main driver of the stock’s performance since Trump won the election was the potential for him to de-regulate the insurance industry and reverse the three-month limitation; thus, it is encouraging to see this play out.”

FLASH: BUY MY FUCKING BOOK. LEAVE A 10 STAR REVIEW.

I need the quick rundown on Dick Bove. I’ve been talking shit about him for well over a decade. I always remembered him to be the guy who told everyone to buy banks while the credit collapse was in full swing. This guy was like the devil in 2008, hemming and hawing, talking about Bear Stearns being a great company and how Lehman could never go bust. Everything he said was wrong and he’s always been bullish. But now he’s a bear. What the hell happened to him?

He’s talking greasy, comparing this market to the one in the 90s that nearly killed me when emerging market debt shit the bed, sending stocks down 30%.

Per CNBC:

“If we don’t get some event in the economy or in politics or in somewhere that is going to create more loan volume and better margins for the banks, then yes, they would come crashing down,” Bove said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “I think that the risk in these stocks is very high at the present time.”

Bove’s latest thoughts come just days before bank earnings season begins. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup kick it off on Thursday when they report third-quarter numbers. Bank of America and Wells Fargo results are scheduled for Friday.

The big banks index, the SPDR S&P Bank ETF, has surged 12 percent in just the last four weeks.

Bove argues the rally isn’t justified by the latest numbers.

“If you go through the different products that the banks sell, just about every one of them are flat to lower in growth than they’ve been for at least a couple of years,” he said.

Despite his qualms, Bove is keeping his buy ratings on several of the largest banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, PNC Financial and First Republic. He advises investors to Wells Fargo and hold Goldman Sachs.

He predicts the newest results for financial firms will likely be “mediocre” at best. CEO comments on benefits of potential tax cuts out of Washington could create near-term positive buzz, according to Bove.

Bove’s conundrum? He said there’s no indication when a deep sell-off could happen.

“I think you just have to go with the flow at the moment,” Bove said. “The outlook again from the fundamental standpoint is not exciting, not positive, but the market doesn’t care.”