China is Out, America is In

The Hang Seng was murdered last night to the tune of 7% and a pastiche of Chicoms here are down greater than 10% today. At the same time $AFRM caught an upgrade and all of the high beta stocks are behaving well.

The China risk off event cascading into the commodities, sending down oil, copper and other base metals. This is a very cursory stupid way of allocating but the market will be insufferable during certain times and this is one of those occasions. Heading into today I had one Chicom and several commodity related stocks, blew them out for losses and added to my American oriented holdings. For today, oil is considered entirely Chinese.

My losses are minor at -35bps, about midway of my range but I’m optimistic about the future. I have some cash for more buying later and am trying to be patient with my exposure: still bullish.

Whilst you got your brains blown out during today’s downturn of a session, yours truly was immune to the pangs, netting +9bps for the day, during the deluge. Whilst there are innumerable reasons and concerns as to why there were more sellers than buyers, none of that is material. The only thing that matters is ‘were you up or were you down?’

If down, you simply need to come to terms with the fact that you aren’t as good as me. That doesn’t mean you can’t change a tire faster or perhaps vacuum a rug with greater expediency; but it does mean that when it counts and the chips are down and markets ARE IN TURMOIL, you fold like a cheap tent.

That’s fine. Some of us need to be ditch diggers.

My opinion on where stocks go from here is also immaterial, and none of your business. The days of me doling out free information to an entirely unwashed class is fast coming to an end. Once I am gone, you will be lost in a zoo of trees and weeds, cutting the thickets in an attempt to get back to equanimity. Truthfully, it’ll never happen and at some point the market will consume you, as it does most men who chance upon it.

GOOD DAY.

Hurricane Milton is en route for Florida, once again reminding citizens of Florida what a stupid state they live in. If not getting wiped out by ‘Canes, they’re getting CHASED AND KILLED by alligators or their faces eaten off by Miami Zombies. I can see how one might want to own a winter home in Florida, to escape the pangs of bone shattering frost. But to live there is another story, totally contemptible behavior choosing to live in the swamp amongst the gators and snakes. To choose Florida as your primary residence, it takes a certain type of person if you know what I mean: a gypsy land traveler without roots to proper areas of the nation.

As for markets, we have BIG SPIKES in crude oil, treasury bond yields and lithium. The fact the US 10yr is above 4% speaks to the hilarity of you losers attempting to buy bonds into a rate cutting cycle: TRICKED AND FOOLED again. This was a crowded traded and now you’re at zero.

The rallies in oil is intriguing and might signal a larger scale rotation into oil during the seasonally excellent period of time for the commodity.

Lastly we have $LAC and other lithium stocks taking off. I took profits on everything at the open and locked in +32bps of gains, which is better than the losses you’re sitting on now. I do see Chinese stocks flying and other low brow denizens of ill repute. I will not be lured back into the vipers pit just so that markets can red candle me to death. Since I have chores to do, people to speak to, I will remain in cash until later on.

Another day passes by in the grandiose life of Le Fly, partaking in all sort of stock market winships, whilst at the same time subjected to Mrs. Fly oriented house chores. On the agenda today is the old cleaning out the garage and some “light gardening”, which will entail power washing and tending to the gardens and all matters of things swirling in her brain. I could simply decline these tasks and tell her “do you have any idea who I am and what you ask of me?” but that would not be a good intermediate term investment for yours truly, as I would almost assuredly fall prey to Mrs. Fly reprisals.

Before I delve into the market, I first wanted to chastise the bears out there for being so stupid and viewing the market through the prism of politics. The market isn’t the Biden administration, or the Fed for the matter. Well, maybe it’s a little bit of the Fed. But my point is, the market is a game and to play this game correctly you need to check your hubris and your bias at the door, else remain, inexorably, retarded.

I am now going to highlight some of my proprietary technical algorithms for some major sector ETFs and respective time frames. What I am trying to communicate to you, a largely moronic audience of grifters and spendthrifts, is factual evidence of rotation.

1 Week Algo (worst 0 to 5 best)
$KWEB 4.17
$IBIT 1.84

2 Week Algo
$KWEB 4.05
$XBI 2.27

1 Month Algo
$XLU 3.52
$XLE 2.39
$SMH 2.42

3 Month Algo
$XLRE 3.31
$XLE 2.29

6 Month Algo
$GDX 3.24
$JETS 2.45
$XLE 2.45

YTD Algo
$SMH 3.19
$KWEB 2.49

1 Yr Algo
$SMH 3.11
$KWEB 2.43

See how I just gave you some holy grail level information and it did nothing for you? It’s like banging on a fucking gong, producing nothing but a giant annoying echo, shades of the orient.

Look pal, I have things to do, lawns to maintain.

Ciao.

Listen to me,

These are the very best of days in the market. If you are cavorting the market place in puts, straddled in burlap cloth attire and only interested in gold, you should go fuck yourself. This is a BULL MARKET and only men are allow to trade it.

What do I mean by that?

Women should refrain from partaking and instead go into the kitchen to bake pies.

There are two types of people in this market, those who made +134bps for the session and those who did not. I feel sorry for you. I really do. But the truth of the matter is, this is as good as it gets and you’re too stupid to figure it out.

It sort of reminds of a conversation I had with a good friend recently who thought Kirkland’s ground coffee was “the best” coffee out there. I sort of chuckled and said “I’d send you some quality beans to taste what good coffee really is, but you wouldn’t know the difference.”

Do you know what I am saying?

There is only one Señor Tropicana, the rest of you are simply existing in my program.

Good day.

People often ask me why I sell everything at the opening tick and here is why.

Look at the price action from 9 to 11am.

Some of the declines are extremely deleterious, ranging with 1% drops in a single hour.

Whilst it’s true, turning over an account 1,000% in a year isn’t exactly tax efficient, it’s also true that losing money isn’t either. These pervasive trends make it difficult to hold morning rips and because of this I will continue to fade the morning rips.

At any rate, I am 100% cash, +93bps for the session, now sitting with YTD gains in excess of 19%. Some people also ask me why I am showcasing pedestrian returns for the year and if you don’t know by now the answer is transparency. A 19% gain, regardless of what markets are doing, is a spectacular annual return to compound my account by. If you look at the Barclay’s hedge fund index, that’s up just 9.4% YTD, meaning the highest paid and most aggrandized PMs are barely up double digits. That is not to bedraggled them any more than already needed; but the point is to demonstrate a process I take and to show the good with the bad because that’s what trading is.

Bear in mind, this account was started at $100k in 2020 and this is where it is now, utilizing zero options or futures and with position sizes of 2 to 6%, many times in cash and often hedged to withstand the barrage of sell orders that comes every so often.

I’d tell you “if I could do it so could you” but that’s simply not the truth, as I am genetically superior to you and possess innate skills that permit me to function at a very high level.

GOOD DAY.

I had a busy day but still managed a gain of +52bps, due to proficient and excellent trading. My YTD now stands at 18.2%. Whilst that number is admittedly in line with the broader indices, I’d like to remind you of this.

Good Sirs/wives of Good Sirs,

You and I are not the same breed of human.

Quickly, I think we have a multifaceted opportunity here with AI, AI databases, and lastly AI power plants. Along the latter chains of power plants, we are looking specifically at nuclear, since it is the best and cleanest form of energy production, save the occasional catastrophe.

You see companies like $CEG, $VST and $TLN cutting deals with $MSFT, $ORCL and $AMZN. Well, this is likely only the beginning of such deals and soon you will learn about plans to convert old coal plants to nuclear, realizing 30% savings in construction costs. Like most trends, I am on top of this one and view the utility space with fresh eyes now, as demand for energy rises thanks to AI and EV.

Some interesting names in the space include $CEG, $VST, $TLN, $PEG, $BWXT, $FLR, $GEV, just to name a few.

“The Fly” is at RECOURD highs and remains at recourd highs, whether you like it or not. I closed with a long book, no hedges, 25% cash, focused on energy.

This is a temporary trade, since we are awaiting an Israeli strike on Iran. Biden said today he was discussing with Israel ways to strike at Iranian crude. If so, the places to be during these events are as follows:

Oil tankers, since they will enjoy elevated day rates to compensate for the risk premium.
Oils, duh
Chems: Iran is an exporters of chemicals

Volatility: since we are unaware of how this might unfold, it’s best to be safer than sorrier and remain long a little volatility, in the event of NUCLEAR WAR! I am kidding on the nuke part, but not about $UVIX.

Lastly, there is an array of stocks holding up well in this tape, such as $ACN, $ORCL,$CENX (war trade), $ICE and a sundry of utilities. Did you know $CEG is reopening 3 mile nuke plant? Indeud.

+4bps for the session, eagerly awaiting the next pivot, 35% cash.

In lieu of Israel attacking Iran, I’m bullish on oil and maintain a position. However, once this song and dance finishes, I’m getting out of oil. It has been a dead asset class for two years and the upside is capped, partly thanks to the proliferation of Chinese EVs.

I’m in a cautious position, 43% cash, short $IWM and the rest long a pastiche of somewhat diverse names, off by 22bps. I had nearly 9% in China names at the open and took those for losses, following last night’s pullback in the Hang Seng.

In regards to the port strike, this is something that should concern you as it can quite literally destroy Christmas. We don’t hear much about it now because it just started. But after a month or two, you’ll be crying like little bitches. To invest for this, think foreign and think local; extricate yourself from companies dependent on a global supply chain into those respective ports.

It took a minute to find my salient but I am in it now and I am effectively bowling on you clowns, out working, out sprinting, outsmarting the competition. I closed the session at another RECOURD high, now nearing +18% for the year.

I am directionally bullish and long some China names into tomorrow, but with less emphasis due to reduced position sizes of 3%. I maintain 34% cash and a 6% hedge in $TZA, moderately sashaying into the summer breeze and champion amongst perverted catamites.

I will have you know, I know exactly what I am doing and in command of my emotional intelligence and immune to the pangs of the industry, beating you across your brows, reducing you to mere fortune tellers and gamblers. I bet on sure things pal because I am all in on Le Fly, aka Senior Tropicana, streaking now in the picturesque sky, destination greatness.