18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,117 Blog Posts

The Exodus Quant Might Reposition Out of Small Caps for July

I’ll do the numbers tomorrow, but it looks like the Exodus Quant fell in line with the SPY last month, long small cap stocks between the market caps $1-5b. It has been long small caps for 3 months and this strategy has proved to be a profitable one, higher by 9% for the year.

Over the past week, however, mega cap stocks have shredded small caps and the margin of outperformance is very small now, between small and large. There is a chance Exodus will reposition out of small and into large.

If you’re just reading me for the first time today, I have a quantitative method by which I invest the majority of my money — using fundamental analysis, using my investment software. I position in the very best companies, graded by my algorithms, 2 stocks per sector, and I do it with a smile and a listless care in the world.

During the week, in order to satiate my desire for craven madness, I trade with fellow lunatics inside The Pelican Room. There, my winship is performed unbridled, and unmatched. But there are times when I do not do well, such as the week that just passed. My methods are momentum based, so when markets are reverting to the mean, I sometimes get fucked. The key, of course, is to cut out the losses quickly, something that I’ve been dreadful at, historically, but have been getting better at.

I have a thing to go to this morning, lasting thru the afternoon. This being the weekend before July 4th, I gather many of you flagFAGS will pretend to be patriotic and use that excuse to get drunk, or stoned, or utilize whatever vice you deem appropriate. I, on the other hand, will be working hard, like Clubber Lang in the gym when Rocky was rolling in the grass with his wife and flowers, figuring out methods and ways to up my performance — preparing for the week ahead.

How else do you expect me to get ahead in this fucking rat race of a life, an existence marked by the things gathered and collected over a lifetime, experiences enjoyed, positions of power wielded? It’s not all shit, believe me. There is beauty in all things, or at least most, you only have to look at and examine the smallest of details to appreciate how fortunate we are to be here, running in the race, trying like mad fools to attain a semblance of calm and happiness.

Have a great Saturday.

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Markets Tumble and Get Beaten into the Close; Enjoy the Weekend Lads

What a fucking fagroll into the bell. All of the momo stocks were eviscerated into the bell. My ZUO and PVTL got fucking poleaxed. All in all, this was a reversion to the mean week for me. All of my recent success has been checked this week, as I took one tumble down the stairs after the next.

It’s hard to describe how these streaks come and go; but when they go — they really do go.

The only silver lining for the day was CBLK and DOMO.

Markets barely traded up and if there was another 10 minutes of trade, we’d be down.

My quant finished up 20bps for the day and to be honest, I don’t even want to think about stocks anymore. I’ll regroup and come back on Monday with a sharp mind and cock made of steel. Enjoy the weekend and be sure to drink recklessly and also smoke a lot.

You are men, after all — act like one.

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Fly Buy: $DOMO

I really don’t learn my lesson. I bought this UXIN Chinese shit yesterday and have been getting my balls boxed in ever since. I am up on another one of my IPO purchases, IIIV — but give it some time; perhaps it too can box me in.

So now I stepped in and bought DOMO. Reason being: I’m retarded. I like SAAS companies that grow fast and are trading mid 20s. They always seem to go to $30, at least that’s the prevailing trend for the moment.

I stepped in and bought it, even though it’s way up, and I don’t give a shit what you think.

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Super Break Out — Time to Get Super Aggressive

I sold my hedges for breakeven — both LABD and SRTY served their purpose in assuaging my fears. I also bought a new IPO, IIIV. It’s a very thinly traded stocks, so be careful about placing large market orders for the shares.

The way I see this market is very clear and beautiful: nothing can stop it.

Sure, the recent losses will serve as a dampener for some shares and things will take time to get back to crazy — but we’ll get there.

For now, I remain, inexorably, bullish.

Take a look at my runners screen in Exodus — stocks within 1% of their intra-day high, up 2% or more for the session.

Top picks: CBLK, ZUO, MDB

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Morning Poppers (Nothing Says Trade War Like Withdrawing from the WTO Edition)

What a lovely morning. I woke up to my coyote snapping her teeth in my face again. I ventured off outside half awake and she nearly tore my arm from my socket after seeing a family of nice deer on my lawn. The Mother deer, seemingly frightened half to death at the specter of seeing a fucking coyote steam out of a human house, stepped forward to face her in final combat, before my coyote got to eat her and all of her children.

Lucky for the nice family of deer, who were all very thin and perfect, I directed my coyote towards the trees and the bushes, to chase after the fox and the squirrels instead.

Nasdaq futures are +37 and that’s incredible because Trump, reportedly, want to remove the US from the WTO.

Axios is reporting that Trump has told several top White House officials he wants to withdraw the United States from the WTO.

“He’s [threatened to withdraw] 100 times. It would totally [screw] us as a country,” one source told the media outlet. The same source said Trump has told his advisors, “We always get f—ed by them [the WTO]. I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States.”

This is like a finance version of Bush’s ‘you’re either with us or against us’ approach to diplomacy. Unfortunately, Twitter wasn’t around back in those early days and none of us were able to properly mock Bush. But now with Trump, we are very much afforded that luxury.

Banks are super strong this morning following the Fed permitting banks to return capital to shareholders. We’re finally getting back to normal, a period in time when the banksters will be able to wantonly approve of loans to homeless people in exchange for big fat bonuses and fees for doing God’s work.

Off to run an errand. Here are this morning’s movers.

Gapping up/down: NKE +10%, KBH +7 and RYI +3% after earnings, MSG +1% after upgrade; STZ -5% after earnings, SLCA -1.6% after downgrade

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance

  • NKE +9.7%, KBH +7.2%, RYI +3.6%, (sees Q2 revenue guidace at $1.04-1.05 bln vs. $1.03 bln Capital IQ Consensus Est; co anticipates quarterly year-over-year volume growth in nearly all end markets), GBX +0.5%

M&A news:

  • GNW +1.8% (Genworth Financial and Oceanwide extend merger agreement)

Select financial related names showing strength:

  • WFC +3.6% (receives no objection to its 2018 capital plan, including dividend boost), BBT +2.7% (to increase the quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.405 per share after Federal Reserve System accepted its capital plan/did not object to proposed capital actions), HBAN +2.6% (receives no objection from Federal Reserve for proposed capital actions in 2018 CCAR; proposed capital actions include a 27% increase of the quarterly dividend and the repurchase of up to $1 bln of common stock), DB +2.4% (Federal Reserve did not object to the DBUSA Capital Plan on a quantitative basis; it did object to the Capital Plan for qualitative reasons), FITB +2.1% (says Fed did not object to it proposal for potential capital actions, will boost dividend by 33%), RF +2.1% (announces CCAR Results; Federal Reserve does not object to co’s proposed capital actions, including increasing dividend to $0.14, $2.031 bln stock repurchase program), KEY +2% (announces that Federal Reserve has no objection to capital plan; actions include 42% increase to quarterly dividend to $0.17/share, share repurchase program of up to $1.225 bln), C +1.8% (announces Federal Reserve Board does not object to the planned capital actions requested by Citi as part of the 2018 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review), JPM +1.7% (announces 2018 CCAR results; firm’s capital plan receives no objection from Federal Reserve; announces quarterly dividend increase to $0.80/share from $0.56/share and authorizes repurchase of $20.7 bln shares of common stock), BAC +1.4% (reports the Federal Reserve did not object to the co’s capital plan, which includes a quarterly dividend boost of +25% to $0.15/share and $20.6 bln common stock repurchase), USB +1% (ups dividend and announces buyback authorization), BK +1% (to boost dividend by 17% and repurchase up to $2.4 bln in stock, Fed does not object to plan), .

Other news:

  • GEMP +155.2% (meets primary endpoint in INDIGO-1 study of Severe Hypertriglyceridemia patients), XLRN +25.4% (Celgene and Acceleron announce luspatercept achieved primary and key secondary endpoints in Phase III ‘MEDALIST’), DERM +16.1% (receives FDA approval for Qbrexza), APTO +12.4% (FDA has lifted the clinical hold on APTO-253), ACAD +9.5% (FDA approval of a new capsule dose formulation and a new tablet strength of NUPLAZID), TRVN +9.3% (announces successful completion of Phase 1 study of TRV250 for treatment of acute migraine), VRTX +8.4% (following GLPG CF trial update), HUYA +5.5% (HUYA and Tencent (TCEHY) sign strategic cooperation deal), PBYI +5.5% ( EMA’s CHMP adopted a positive opinion recommending marketing authorisation for the medicinal product NERLYNX), NVS +3.4% (announces intention to seek shareholder approval for 100% spinoff of Alcon eye care devices business; initiates share buyback of up to $5 billion), FCAU +3.2% (attributed to speculation of Hyundai (HYMTF) interest), MIK +2.9% (initiates $250 mln accelerated common share repurchase agreement), CELG +2.1% (Celgene and Acceleron announce luspatercept achieved primary and key secondary endpoints in Phase III ‘MEDALIST’), SNY +1.7% (announces that the EMA’s CHMP has recommended approval of Cablivi in Europe), ZIOP +1.6% (enrolled the first patient in its Phase 1 clinical trial to evaluate Ad-RTS-hIL-12 plus veledimex in combination with OPDIVO in adult patients with recurrent glioblastoma),SKX +1.6% (following NKE results), FL +1.5% (following NKE results), SPPI +1.2% (presents data from the ADVANCE Phase 3 study), .

Analyst comments:

  • GMS +2.1% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James)
  • BHF +2% (upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI)
  • NBR +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
  • PDM +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson)
  • MSG +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance

  • STZ -5.2%, SNX -3.9%, (also confirms CVG deal)

M&A news:

  • CVG -1.4% (Convergys to be acquired by Synnex subsidiary Concentrix for approx. $2.43 bln)

Other news:

  • GLPG -6.2% (reports topline results of PELICAN trial – GLPG2737 achieved primary efficacy endpoint and updates on triple combo development plans )
  • DSX -2.9% (files for $500 mln mixed securities shelf offering)

Analyst comments:

  • REXR -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson)
  • FTSI -0.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo)
  • THC -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies)
  • SLCA -1.6% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo)

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Tomorrow Will Be a Punch Your Face Off Rally

This is what life is all about. Work really hard with really smart people, make a fortune, enjoy the summers amidst champagne cocktails and views of the ocean.

There isn’t a better stock trader in the entire world than me, believe me. You’d be wise to align yourself with a space alien magician (SAM), such as myself.

Futures are sharply higher and my mood is light and gay (no homo). I ingested 5gs of creatine and have been drinking water all afternoon long. I’ll be heading to the gym before midnight, in order to lift and rip apart my muscles, so bigger ones can replace them.

Tomorrow morning, I have to do a few errands, and then it’s all stock market for me — blue skies and purple dinosaurs. Nothing can stop me. You’ll see.

Fuck the stock Gods.

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Nice Bounce Day — Let’s Hope For MOAR

It was a good bounce day, but let’s not make a mountain out of a molehill. I took losses in ARRY and bought UXIN, which went straight down on me. My hedges, SRTY and LABD, closed lower — and my SPOT had a bad day. Other than that, everything was green and I made a lot of coin in HUBS, ZEN and a sundry of other stocks.

Let’s put the rally into perspective. It’s a blip on the screen.

I’m positioned for a rally, with just 10% of my money short and 5% cash. With the amount of high beta software stocks I’m holding now, the hedges are almost meaningless.

Over in my Quant, it was higher by 85bps. We’re heading into the birthday of America. I find it incredibly hard to believe we fade here, into a weekend filled with bottled rockets and Budweiser can parties.

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SAAS Stocks Lifting Off — Is the Correction Over?

Markets are really strong today and it’s business as usual in SAAS land. The past two weeks have been somewhat ruinous for the sector, following what was perhaps the single best run in years. But now we’ve come to a cross in the roads and you all have to decide where stocks go next.

Here is my SAAS watchlist in Exodus. Many of these stocks I’ve been buying, including ZUO. I just bought that shit like 10 minutes ago.

Even after today’s lift, the average loss of 13% over the past two weeks, making this sector buyable for anyone in search of dips.

On a separate note, I’m keeping my hedges in place — just in case.

Cash is down to just 5%.

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Markets in Flush Mode — So I Bought a Chinese Burrito IPO (Try to Stop Me Edition)

Markets are doing precisely what I expected. My LABD is sprinting higher and more or less my longs are okay. So, capturing the spirit of all of the Wall Street gamblers before me, I stepped in and bought some UXIN.

UXIN is a piece of shit Chinese IPO that just came public; and because it was priced during a very bad day in the markets, it didn’t get to stretch its legs. Ergo, I stepped in and bought some today.

Is it possible that this too could lead to a disastrous drawdown?

Not possible.

Also, I am now down to just 10% cash, perhaps a foolhardy position all things considered. But I have those SRTY and LABD hedges working overtime for me. Nothing is able to stop me, frankly, so don’t even try to get in my way.

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Here Come the “We Need a Flush Out” Fags En Masse

I absolutely love this job. I’m like a financial detective trying to solve cases every day. If you’ve been doing this shit long enough, you know all of the scenarios and the motivations of the people you’re investigating.

Case in point: futures were up last night and I knew it meant absolutely nothing. Why? Because greedy investors got caught flat footed, leveraged to the hilt, and now they’re being liquidated. Simultaneously, the cynics amongst you always demand major flush outs before heading back higher. It’s just one of those nonsensical things that Wall Street believes in, sort of like hoping to get cancer first, before making a full recovery from the common cold.

So now you have all of these technicians and strategists prancing around Wall Street advising clients to remain defensive until some major showdown between the bulls and the bears takes place, leaving scores dead on the battlefield of speculation.

Meanwhile, I’ll be here watching the whole thing unfold, throwing roasted almonds at them.

This is what I’m going to do today, so listen to me very quietly.

I am going to book profits on my fucking inverse ETFs and then I’m going to take said cash and leave it there, drink a fuckload of coffee, eat a few sandwiches, laugh and make fun of everyone on the internets. And then, once the smoke clears and the last pleb is liquidated from his margined positions, I am going to buy the blood and profit from the pain of others.

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