CRISIS HITS HOUSE FLY; SIGNIFICANT WINSHIP INCOMING

As I’ve outlined here many times, the more pain and agony I feel at home, whether it be thru broken appliances or sudden cracks in every ceiling of my house — that hardship is often matched by extreme winship in the market. I’m a firm believer in cosmic radiance and how good offsets the bad, and vice versa.

Be me.

Wake up at 6:30am sharp. No need to press snooze, because you’re excited to awaken, as you’ve got some inverse ETFs to profit from. Wake up 13yr old son, say hello to 15 yr old daughter, barrel downstairs and drink some water. Drive kids to school, get a few chuckles on the way back listening to Howard Stern, park car and go back into the house.

Say hello to dogs, let them in the yard, slam door shut.

Tell Alexa to “play WQXR fm, tune in radio” — quietly listen to Bach, eagerly watching S&P futures melt the fuck lower.

Go to kitchen and place a kettle of water to boil for coffee., and a pot of water for eggs. Grind beans, smells delicious. Now Beethoven is playing in the background. Visit pantry and take out French bread that you bought from Costco and sheave off a healthy slice. Place in panini press.

Drop 3 eggs in boiling water and tell Alexa “set timer for 6 minutes” because anything more or less than 6 minutes is imperfection. We cannot have any of that.

Pour boiling water in French Press and set timer for 4 minutes to steep. Pour milk in frother and and begin heating milk for coffee.

Notice cabinet is leaning a little and won’t close. Investigate further.

Grab screwdriver and blindly poke around and unscrew a bolt here, tighten one there. Cabinet door worsens.

Bread in panini press smells delicious, really heating up now.

Escalate my attempt to repair cabinet by taking out drill. Unscrews everything, removes cabinet, pretends to have an idea what I’m doing.

Eggs are ready, drop in bowl of cold water. Coffee is ready too — plunge press into ground beans. Milk is ready too.

Proceed to fix cabinet, annoyed by inability to fit bracket correctly. Cabinet nearly falls on my head.

Twenty one year old son comes down, takes 2 of my eggs and bread — eats breakfast. Pours himself a cup of coffee too.

Escalates repair further by taking out step ladder to get a better angle at now knowing what I’m doing.

Ah, got it. Attempts to close cabinet, but it swings right back open, much worse than before.

Takes drill and removes bracket, screw drops in between oven and counter, attempts to grab it, cabinet falls on my head.

Now irate, seeing red. Attempts to fix cabinet 20 times in a row and each time it gets worse. Removes fucking cabinet and tosses drill into the fucking laundry room sink, saying “fuck it.”

Grabs cold egg and slice of cold white bread. Pours self cup of coffee with milk — but it overflows and milk spills onto floor. Bites into egg and yolk drips on pants, coffee spills on shirt.

SITS DOWN TO WRITE A FUCKING BLOG ABOUT ORDEAL. CATASTROPHE.

Greetings,

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I told you so.

It’s over, faggots. The market is French toast, a surrender version of ordinary toast.

Me looking at $AMZN in the AHs, cc: @shonkori pic.twitter.com/hQzT3MwyJ4

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 25, 2018

I will have you know, effervescently, AMZN, GOOGL, and SNAP are all sharply lower. You took a fucking haircut, mate. Deal with it.

TRADERS BEFORE $AMZN, $GOOGL EARNINGS AND AFTER pic.twitter.com/rhx0OsYO2O

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 25, 2018

I’m happy I kept my shorts. But I kept them because I knew better. I knew better because I was born smart. I was born smart because I derive from ancient lineage of artists and shamans.

Fly wins again.

See you fucked faces tomorrow. Off to cook some steaks.

Enough of the mealy mouthed having it both ways horseshit. Here’s what I really think is going to happen.

Markets cannot V shape recover out of this hole. Today’s melt up cannot and will not continue into tomorrow. If you’re betting on that, you’ll be raped first thing tomorrow morning.

Back in Feb, we had a similar spate of weakness. A giant down day was followed by big up day and then inside of 1 week…we melted the fuck lower again.

Everything is beautiful about today. I have zero problems with the structure of the rally. But that’s the nature of a circle jerk. End up trading to and fro too many times and end up in the fucking grind house with your bones on fire.

Do you know why you feel fucked up right now?

It’s because you’re trading your entire account. Quit doing that, else I’ll come over there and slap the shit out of you. Take 25% of your money and trade it — the rest leave for long term cap gains. Or, like me, put that fucker into a Quant strategy.

I ate some tuna fish on toast today, two cups of coffee, and I brushed my teeth 9 times. I’m +3.5% on my quant and getting drilled on my inverses in my trading; but 75% of the account is cash. I should’ve sold the inverses this morning — after I had a suspicion we’d have a slow boil up type of day. We’re likely to close at the highs and everyone will go home feeling good. During supper, your wives will ask how your day went and you’ll say “just fine, dear, thanks. Please pass the gravy.”

You’ll go to sleep feeling euphoric and then wake up in the morning to a fucking nightmare, S&P futures sharply lower and everyone you know will be hanging out from windows in an attempt to collect life insurance post mortem.

GOOD DAY.

How is your day going? Good I hope.

I have a metric that I’m watching to determine if there’s underlying strength or weakness in the tape. I only care about tech, because it’s the best, and has been hit the hardest. On my momentum screen in Exodus, there are 49 names now. Overall breadth is in the order of 83%, a fine showing and I wouldn’t worry too much about this afternoon fade, since it’s a meaningless time of day.

The slow boil from this morning culminated and poleaxed anyone who faded the open.

My momo screen is simple: find stocks up more than 2% for the session, within 1% of session highs. That’s it. Perfect and it works.

Here’s the problem with today.

The rally isn’t to be trust, since we almost died yesterday. Anyone short is waiting for the next shoe to drop. Anyone long is suspect of tomorrow. This is normal and I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow was a do nothing Friday.

Not to sounding like a hedging fucking faggot who’s always right and thumbing his nose at everyone, but this is the reason why my quant account has 75% of my investable income and is 100% long and doesn’t adjust intra-month. I review the account on the first day of each month and adjust then.

My trading account is losing money today, but it’s 75% cash, so I’m mostly walking around in a robe with my balls swinging around.

Look for a sharp move to the upside at 3pm for confirmation of today’s rally.

I think tech needs to dominate in order to truly bottom. What we’re seeing today might be a head fake, sucking fuckers in like Noo-Noo from the Teletubbies, only to later on rake them over the coals and crush them.

Breadth in tech is 73%, impressive, but not so much.

A look at tech today, up 0.6%.

What we want to see is a slow boil and then a fucking explosion of perversion — bulls running naked thru the streets having a grande old time. You can either bottom that way, slow boil, rounding bottom, or V shape — which is often paired with a news event.

For example: if Trump said he was going to sit down with the ABSOLUTE FUCKHEADS in China about trade. That would cause a 1 thousand point rally.

Either way, up is good — but do not be fooled by the gyrations. I have a slew of inverse ETFs now, all up from my basis, but lower today. I have to decide whether or not to hold them or go to cash. I don’t believe I’ll buy into this tape today, as I’d prefer to see some follow thru first.

Bottom line: it’s a nice 2% rally in leading sectors and well structured portfolios today. My Quant is up 200bps, because it’s well structured. But, one day doesn’t make a trend — FUCKED FACE — so quit trying to time the bottom.

It looks like we’re getting a nice bounce today, in spite of horrible earnings at AMD. Nasdaq futures are +100, Dow +178. WTI is slightly higher and the general mood this morning is one of tentative confidence in the idea that maybe, just maybe, yesterday’s bloodbath was enough to call it a bottom.

Naturally, I find myself Gartman’d in a variety of triple inverse ETFs; but I’ll be just fine. I’m mostly cash and my bigger dilemma is whether or not to chase the rally, fade the rally, or simply sit here and do nothing at all. When markets cascade lower, it tends to make everyone bearish, even the last bull. In this case, the last bull might’ve been me. Often times the last bull goes short, markets reverses higher, and then said bull is stuck with a bunch of shorts and soon becomes emotionally invested in retardation.

Be sure to avoid getting emotionally attached to a trade.

I’ll treat the inverses like any other trade, adhering to stop losses.

Is it possible the market will whipsaw higher, suck in a bunch of faggots, and then whipsaw lower again?

Yes, which is what makes bad tapes so dangerous.

If you’re conflicted, like me, it’s probably best to ride it out with a lot of cash and buy back when the higher probability trades present themselves, after the squall ends. Trying to catch the pivot point is hard and if you messed up a few times, that might lead to psychological fuckery that will certainly lead to big ass fucking losses in your 4 figure portfolios.

Long term, you’ll be dead. In the short term, anything can happen.

I want to show you a random blog I selected from my archives, 1/30/08. The Nasdaq had already dropped by 17% and Cramer was bullish again, as well as most of the people on the site, thinking the market was done going lower. There is a lesson in all of this.

Since When Do You Need Armaggedon to Have a Bear Market?

Seriously, I’m not etching any of my predictions in stone. Should the economic data change, I will adjust my position. However, a certain tv personality is getting on my fucking nerves with grandiose calls of a “market bottom,” just because the Fed is cutting rates.

WTF?

First of all, he needs to quit comparing this environment to 1990. It’s not the same. The losses are much greater.

Secondly, will someone inform him that corporate profits dictate the direction of the market, not the lack of “Armageddon” in our nation’s financial system?

Thanks.

I mean, just because WM and C may stick around for the next 10 years doesn’t mean their stock prices will go up.

More craziness.

Despite the rates cuts, credit is tight. In addition to that, our consumer based economy is tapped the fuck out. Don’t believe me, take a look at the companies who do big business in the U.S. Then, look at their stock prices. Not too pretty, is it?

Suggesting stock prices can keep marching higher, because China and India are growing fast is inane. At some point, the world’s largest economy has to count. Keep on thinking it’s ok to deplete the economy of high paying manufacturing jobs, in exchange for service crap; see where it gets you.

Bottom line: After the 2000 blow-up, it took almost 3 years for the market to bottom, despite Greenspan dropping rates to a shocking 1%. Don’t listen to coked out asshats who declare market bottoms, following two tough weeks of declines. Instead, listen to anonymous bloggers, who claim to have access to time machines, and other types of “space alien magician” technologies.

The way 2008 ended up going on iBankCoin was with massive winship by Le Fly — banking +65% for the year. I had hedged with inverse ETFs, shorted the banks, and had a great and horrible time doing it. It was harrowing and I hated every second of the crisis. There was a disparate feeling of doom around every bend and I always felt the money I was making was for nothing, since it was all going to end with wanton destruction.

The lesson to be learned is this.

Even though we’ve been automatic for 9 years to the upside, keep an open mind to the idea it’s going to end. There are negative headwinds here, ripping thru supply chains and adversely effecting global trade. The one upside is this could be remedied with some diplomacy, so bear that in mind when you’re placing short positions. Until there’s evidence of hard wired bearish trends in the economy, cover shorts and sell those inverse ETFs for profits quickly.

Don’t panic — everything will be fine.

I will be very blunt with you. Get your affairs in order. All that you see in front of you, the pain and the bloodshed, is nothing more than a morsel of a preview of the horror yet to come.

I have zero longs to speak of and now very much SHORT. I just bought some YANG — triple hating on China — because I want something to root for tonight.

The winds of vengeance and misery are sweeping thru Wall — wasting away and cleaning the weak and the greedy. You’ve all been very gluttonous and because of that — you will lose it all.

Find solace in knowing that every penny you lose in your longs, Le Fly gains. I do not require your attention, but demand your bloodshed.

Very soon, markets will disconnect and fuck itself into the sewers. Nothing can stop the selling and I would not be surprised to see it crash thru the fucking floor boards tomorrow and halt.

Limit down, young man, limit down. I shall abscond with all of your money, AND MORE.

Good day.

Top picks: TMF, DRIP, SOXS, YANG.

It’s going to be a VXX Halloween, believe me.

I’ll make this direct and to the point.

I have no idea if the market will bounce. But I will say, the market is trying to communicate something here and this isn’t a garden variety sell off. This price drop is in response to increasing pressures on the market, as foretold by the semis.

The Semis have gone down the most this month in six years.

The TXN and STM warnings are worrisome — because it has everything to do with their supply chains in China.

STMicroelectronics beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line; guides Q4 revs below consensus

Texas Instruments: Street collectively cuts targets following revenue miss, downside guide

Today’s Beige Book is painting an awfully grim tale, one FESTOONED with back breaking inflation by way of FUCKING TARIFFS on China.

Telling anecdotes: Nearly two-thirds of manufacturing contacts in the Cleveland district raised their prices in September and early October. This was the fifth straight report where more than half of manufacturers in the district raised prices.

In Philadelphia, one firm reported “significant pushback” to its announced price hikes from a major retail customer. Other firms in the district reported difficulty meeting the prices of foreign competitors now that tariffs were in place.

Because of worker shortages, one firm in St. Louis had launched a program to teach foreign-born workers English to prepare them for jobs in the medical field.

In Southern California, hotels were passing along higher costs to guests in the form of one-off surcharges.

Source: Marketwatch

Here’s the full run down of the Beige Book.

Overall Economic Activity

• Economic activity expanded across the United States, with the majority of Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth. New York and St. Louis indicated slight growth, overall, while Dallas reported robust growth driven by strong manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services activity.
• On balance, manufacturers reported moderate output growth; however, several Districts indicated that firms faced rising materials and shipping costs, uncertainties over the trade environment, and/or difficulties finding qualified workers.
• Demand for transportation services remained strong.
• Labor shortages were broadly noted and were linked to wage increases and/or constrained growth.
• Reports on commercial and residential real estate were mixed, although several Districts saw rising home prices and low levels of inventory.
• Overall, consumer spending increased at a modest pace while consumer price growth ranged from modest to moderate.
• Travel and tourism generally picked up with a notable exception of North and South Carolina, where Hurricane Florence deterred tourism.
• Agricultural conditions were mixed as rainy weather helped some farmers but caused delays and crop damages for others, including the loss of crops and livestock due to Hurricane Florence.

Employment and Wages

• Employment expanded modestly or moderately across most of the nation; San Francisco reported robust growth while three Districts reported little to no change.
• Employers throughout the country continued to report tight labor markets and difficulties finding qualified workers, including highly skilled engineers, finance and sales professionals, construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers.
• A couple of Districts reported that worker shortages were restraining growth in some sectors.
• Many firms reported high turnover rates and difficulties retaining employees.
• Some businesses implemented non-wage strategies to recruit and retain workers, such as giving signing bonuses, offering flexible work schedules, and increasing vacation allowances.
• Wage growth was mostly characterized as modest or moderate, though Dallas reported robust growth. Most businesses expected labor demand to increase modestly in the next six months, and looked for modest to moderate wage growth.

Prices

• Prices continued to rise, growing at a modest to moderate pace in all Districts.
• Manufacturers reported raising prices of finished goods out of necessity as costs of raw materials such as metals rose, which they attributed to tariffs.
• Construction contract prices increased to cover rising costs of labor and materials.
• Retailers and wholesalers in some Districts raised selling prices as they continued to see increased costs in transportation and also worried about impending cost increases resulting from tariffs.
• Districts reported rising oil and fuel prices but gave mixed reports on movement of agricultural commodity prices.

Why should you worry?

Motherfucking Smoot Hawley — that’s why.

The Fed is tightening while a trade war continues to gain steam. These taxes are not being absorbed by China — but by America. That’s right, fucked face, this is a new tax on your heads and based on the laws of macro-economics — THIS WILL SLOW THE ECONOMY and maybe even crash it.

Know your history.

The Tariff Act of 1930 (codified at 19 U.S.C. ch. 4), commonly known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff or Hawley–Smoot Tariff,[1] was an Act implementing protectionist trade policies sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley and was signed into law on June 17, 1930. The act raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.[2]

The tariffs (this does not include duty-free imports – see Tariff levels below) under the act were the second-highest in the U.S. in 100 years, exceeded by a small margin by the Tariff of 1828.[3] The Act and following retaliatory tariffs by America’s trading partners were major factors of the reduction of American exports and imports by more than half during the Depression.[4] Although economists disagree by how much, the consensus view among economists and economic historians is that “The passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff exacerbated the Great Depression.”[5]

How will it happen?

China cracks from liquidity crisis and the world as we know it sinks into a giant orange void, on its path to war, pestilence, and famine.

I sold out of my last meaningless longs and bought triple upside bonds — TMF.

Current positions of note in my trading account: SOXS, DRIP, ABX, and TMF.