Thu Oct 26, 2023 10:35am ESTComments Off on TOXIC SLUDGE TAPE
Semis are higher, but oils are lower. Small caps up, but large caps are down. Tech had been higher, but now sliding lower. Trying to properly understand what exactly to buy or sell here is a bit of a puzzle so I opted to head on over to cash and cower in the corner until the market sorts itself out.
For every large green candle there is a red one to follow. This isn’t a market for a gentleman, but instead meant for swashbuckling caitiffs.
I will not demean or lower myself by playing in this sandbox and opt out until further notice, down 10bps for the session.
We’ve been dealing with delusional people for many years now, accentuated by the COVID lockdowns and vaccine mandates — thrusted upon the people en masse with a false sense of urgency backed by fraudulent claims. It’s all connected, see, the vaccines, the wars, the division amongst races and ethnicities — a grand scheme to divide and conquer.
Without sounding too conspiratorial, as I am well aware the vast majority of you aren’t ready for the unvarnished truth hidden in the bloodlines, we can state some obvious facts right here.
Anti-white/ pro LGBTQ policies didn’t work
The vaccines didn’t work.
Masks didn’t work.
NATO support for Ukraine didn’t work.
None of their schemes work because they’re not formidable people. They operate out of spite and latch onto the strong to embolden their tricks. The stock market is a barometer of this and you’d be foolish not to admit we’re presently mired in the worst bear market since 2008-2009. The Russell 2000 is down 17% since July; and that infection is spreading rapidly into all facets of markets — leaving very few places to hide.
I am bearish, not because I’m miserable and want to see pain and suffering. I am a bear because it’s as right as the rain. with the power of the thunder and ferocity of lightening — the same reason and rationale I had been formerly an unrelenting bull for all of the years we enjoyed together — placing crazed bets on Pax Americana and capitalism. I want to see it succeed — but understand it will fail.
We are in the last days of the American Empire — dysgenics has taken hold and the achievements of yesterday will soon become the ruins of tomorrow.
Alas, I closed the session +45bps, now +2.5% for October — in slow as molasses spilling off the picnic table trading. My closing positions are larger, with an $SQQQ and $UVIX hedge — catacombed in defensive areas of the market — fully expecting war in the Middle East to begin, in earnest, within a fortnight.
Wed Oct 25, 2023 1:11pm ESTComments Off on Afternoon Crash
What a wonderful afternoon. I just came back from a gingerly autumn walk with my fucking dogs — watching them savagely chase and attempt to eat numerous small animals along our path. It was especially good knowing that with the cooler climes descending upon me the fires inside of the market would keep me warm — as the NASDAQ crashes into cataclysm and much much more.
This tape reminds me of so many others — nothing usual about what you’re seeing at all. This feels like hell because you’re in it. The simplest answer is always the right one.
I stand before you +47bps — building slowly throughout the session with a plan in mind for tomorrow.
HINT: It has nothing to do with the market bouncing.
Wed Oct 25, 2023 9:57am ESTComments Off on CRASH THE OPEN
A well deserved drubbing at the open for Pax Americana, following a day of pretend and fantasy. Stocks are back in their rightful place, SHARPLY LOWER. Amidst the din of heads splattering on the pavement, it’s important that you acknowledge the trend is LOWER and we are in a terrible bear market, in both bonds and stocks.
ALL STOCKS are down 9% for the year, a much different narrative than what the main indices suggest — negating the curious tale of “UP STOCKS” woven by the swindlers in the media.
My gains are +50bps at the open, courtesy of my $FNGD position and a trade I took in $UVIX. At the moment, I am 90% cash, long only $LMT and $BTU.
The allure of buying the dips is palpable. But you must realize the sins of America are expensive and as the fabric of society withers away like a piece of drift wood abandoned on a desolate but violent beach — stocks will suffer.
Listen to me now: gone are the days of hegemony and low rates to spur our perfidy. Rates are not only skyrocketing due to inflation — but due to lack of interest in US GOVT bonds and perhaps net selling aboard. As the US 10yr swims for 5% while the CPI data declines — think about why that is.
Tue Oct 24, 2023 4:20pm ESTComments Off on NEAR FLAWLESS TRADING TO FLAT
After my previous blog, markets almost immediately shot higher and continues to jog on for the duration of the session. While some of the more emotional effeminate traders on Twitter might’ve laid down prone — waiting for the lawnmowers to circumvent the crevices of your faces — “The Fly” went to work on a journey to close exactly flat. I nearly accomplished this feat of trading perfection but was upbraided at the bell and ended up losing 2bps.
After the close $MSFT beat and $GOOGL beat — but both went in opposite directions with the evil incarnate Bill Gates lifting 5.5% in the after hours session and the Censorship Bureau for The New brave Republic of America aka Google — off by 5.5%. In other words, a circle jerk.
It should be noted a took a sizable hedge against my longs betting against the bastards at Google via $FNGD. As of now, my schemes fell flat since the ETF is down 0.6% in the AHs.
We were supposed to crash through the fucking floorboards today and we did not. I am hopeful we can find the courage to see to it tomorrow — sledding lower in a fury taking out all of the stops and laying the bulls down prostrate for the lawnmowers to clean up.
My gains for the year are +40%. My intention is to survive October and then weigh into a sharp selling frenzy with buy orders — all but bailing out the entire stock market and western finance in one fell swoop. I do not believe we’ll trade down in November and I would be wise to remember that when I’m actually trading in November calling for a complete closure of the exchanges and suspension of western finance in order to stop the bleeding.
The melt up that could’ve been gave way to collapse and now you’re all thinking — “how did Lord Fly manage through it all?”
My gains were stolen from me — but they were never large to begin with. I went from +30bps to FLAT and I am only flat thanks solely to enterprising moves on my behalf to short the fucking market into the ground.
Heading into the afternoon session, I am smartly hedged, perfectly balanced. Anyone can make or lose money — but can you close flat?
I am short the NASDAQ, short bonds, short oil, long gold, long Bitcoin and several other stocks. Since we’ve done nothing but leg lower the past hour or two, I will wait in the tall grass again — patiently waiting for my prey to hobble behind the pack. When I see her, I will pounce and rip into it limb by limb — causing bloods and bone matter to spill and crack all over the prairie. Other zebras will look on in horror as I chew their loved one — profoundly victorious and satiated.
Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:08am ESTComments Off on Potential For Melt Up
Last night $BTC exploded to the upside, thrusting more than 10% to $34,000+. Some tied it to Chinese flight of capital; I chalk it up to life and risk aversion — a denizen of transport for large sums of money. Whatever the reason, this certainly got the speculative juices flowing again, as we all reminisce over the best days when the Metaverse was popping off and $BTC was heading, inexorably, to $1 million per coin.
At any rate, markets have followed up in kind this morning, with the NASDAQ +100. There is some temperance to this move, as the ribald nature of it seems to be measured and half-hearted, almost as if traders are waiting for a shoe to drop and the rally to be spoiled.
Speaking from the perspective of a PERMANENT BEAR, I must alert fellow bears to the distinct possibility we could have a retardo upside move soon. We are very oversold according to Stocklabs and the % of large cap bullish (LCRB) is less than 10%. At the close of trade yesterday we were at an appalling 4.8%, which basically means the technical score of all stocks with market caps $5b+ were under 3, on a 1-5 scale. In the past, when the technical reading was this low markets mean reversed the fuck higher in a eye bleeding rally.
Be prepared for all eventualities. I closed out my shorts this morning and switched over to the bull side, as I have been known to do on occasion.
When I was a boy, around 7 years old, I had a crush on a 10 year old girl and I wanted her to be my girlfriend — even though she was out of my league. I asked the Gods one evening before bed to curry me favor and to grant her to me, as I felt entitled to enjoy the company of such a fine specimen. The very next day whilst having a personal stroll along the corridors of my housing tenement — she asked me to be her boyfriend — at which point I flatly rejected her overtures as ridiculous.
I’ve been doing this my entire life — manifesting fantastical things — all bestowed upon me with such expediency that I could only feel a certain sense of speciality whilst walking in corridors today amongst ordinary people.
Some of you misconstrue the purpose of this blog and the purpose of Stocklabs — look towards it and me as a God to help you manifest things. You’d be wrong to think that of me and you’d be wise to understand the purpose of men, all men, is to walk their own path — carve out their own corner of the universe with their own hands — breaking through stone if they have to in order to attain what is rightfully theirs.
For some of us, life is charmed — easy from the start — barely any waterbugs to kill in the house growing up. But for others, life is an albatross — a weight that manifests itself always at the wrong time. It’s easy to give up and become comfortable in failure, chalking things up to “bad luck” or a “rigged game.” But the truth is simpler and more direct: you extract from this life what you’re able to invest, whether it’s time or money — no difference.
For the slothful and wastrels — life is an arduous climb, rugged terrain for decades on end until collapse and then forgotten like the summer breeze on August 13th 1983 — when young Fly ran about the neighborhood on the hunt — kicking cans and sipping gallons of sugar water in pursuit of glory.
I closed the session +44bps, fixed in a NET SHORT position for tomorrow — intending to manifest the entire market lower, as I feel, if being honest with you, it is my right to do so.
Before you get too excited about the future, I wanted you to peer into the past and recount how often the market had gone up on Mondays — only to soon after slide down for the balance of the week in perfidious manner.
In Stocklabs, we measure all sorts of stuff. In this instance, the percentage returns for the NASDAQ from March to date 2023, by days of the week. You’ll notice, if you’d kindly fix your monocles on the chart below, the NASDAQ has gone up 77% of the time on Mondays.
I closed out my shorts and longs and just hold $SPOT now, +32bps for the session. The NASDAQ is up a cool 150+ or so from the lows and I was of course clever enough to get out of the way. I’m always clever enough, always will be.
Mon Oct 23, 2023 10:12am ESTComments Off on Extremely Oversold Danger Zone
We’re at a point in this tape your ego will start talking to you, letting you know how smart you really are over others and this will lead you to festoon your accounts with losses largess.
It’s true — we are extremely oversold and under these conditions we can rally very hard off the lows, which makes it hard to short. On the other hand, something might break causing a domino effect and washout of stocks, making your dip buying excursions painful.
The answer to this tape is obvious: trade small. I promise you there will be better tapes. Even if you miss some massive melt up; I promise you there will be low hanging fruits.
In order to catch a mean reversion rally you must be willing to put yourselves out there to withstand the fires. This means taking losses while waiting for things to turn.
An alternative position is to wait for a fat pitch. Your most important job is preservation of capital. So many of you digusting fools throw that concept out the window as soon as you begin believing God himself is talking to you, offering up stock tips.
Many of you right now are reading this saying “this fucker doesn’t know what he’s talking about — stocks are soooo cheap right now or OMG stocks are going to crash this time for good — what a fool.”
But you can all suck a bag of dicks, knowing that The Fly doesn’t draw down, rarely gets fooled, and is generally right about these things way more often than not.
My advice to you now is to reduce your footprint in the market or if long to hedge your longs until this squall passes. This is most likely the last big sell off for the year — but that doesn’t mean we’re about to enter a bull tape either. Shit is fucked up and stocks are merely reflecting that.
Be quick and try not to believe in your own bullshit for more than a few hours.