18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,562 Blog Posts

Markets Poised For a Proper and Most Distinguished Close for February

This month shall forever be etched in the annals of time — a morbid occurrence of grotesque proportions when the XIV traded from $100 to zero in a little more than a few hours — thanks to details shrouded in the prospectus. Anyone who lost money in it clearly had it coming, as it was all there, in black and white, the details that is for knowing what was about to happen.

Although I lost money in the darn thing and feel bad about the whole situation, I’m a better man for it. Nowadays, instead of tinkering with the gym or reading fine literature, I sit fireside reading from a stack of prospectuses. While at first moribund and plainly boring, I now find them to be delightful — like a fine cut of unsalted broccoli. It just gets better and better, especially after a good thrashing or maybe even a famine.

Dow futures are +70, which means I am going to get whipped in the face because of my SQQQ and DRV positions. Never worry, I have plenty of oil stocks to make up the difference and I intend to make some gains in my quant account — this being the final day of the month and all. Starting tomorrow, Exodus Quant will sport a new portfolio — one of more aggressive qualities.

Here are this morning’s movers, courtesy of Briefing.com.


  • SYNH +24.6%, AAXN +22.5%, ETSY +16.2%, OCN +14.2%, TIVO +12.9%, (also announces plan to explore all alternatives to maximize shareholder value), ENPH +11.1%, WTW +10.3%, TAST +9.3%, BKNG +8.4%, RRD +8.2%, FRAN +7.1%, MGIC +7%, CSU +6.6%, CGBD +6.5%, SBLK +6.1%, OAS +5.8%, ATSG +5.8%, VEEV +5.5%, CHS +5%, DAR +4.8%, RP +3.7%, MASI +3.4%, PNM +3.4%, HEI +3.1%, AKAO +3.1%, MTZ +3%, SUPN +3%, UNVR +3%, ATUS +2.8%, FSS +2.5%, UPL +2.4%, FRO +2%, IMAX +1.9%, ESRX +1.8%, RDC +1.8%, XOG +1.7%, DEPO +1.6%, STWD +1.6%, GBT +1.3%, WP +1.3%, MITT +1%, PEN +1%, ODP +1%, .

M&A news:

  • STB +24% (Student Transportation to be acquired by a group of investors led by CDPQ for US$7.50 per common share in cash)
  • PHH +23.7% (PHH Corp to be acquired by Ocwen (OCN) in an all cash transaction valued at $360 million, or $11.00 per fully-diluted share)
  • OCN +14.2% (PHH Corp to be acquired by Ocwen (OCN) in an all cash transaction valued at $360 million, or $11.00 per fully-diluted share)
  • SGYP +8.5% (acquires exclusive Canadian rights to FDA-Approved Trulance from Synergy Pharmaceuticals)
  • MON +0.9% (Monsanto merger with Bayer (BAYRY) said to be set to be approved by the EU, subject to conditions, according to Reuters)

Other news:

  • CODX +14.7% (positive results from Co-Primers Technology in multiplex test for SNP detection)
  • MTP +11.1% (European Medicines Agency has granted Orphan Drug Designation for its advanced liver cancer drug candidate MTD119)
  • HTBX +6.7% (announces ‘positive’ interim data from its Phase 2 clinical trial of HS-110 and Nivolumab in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer)
  • MBVX +5.6% (reports positive safety results from initial cohort of MVT-1075 Radioimmunotherapy Phase 1 Trail for the treatment of Pancreatic, Colon and Lung Cancers)
  • ECYT +3.6% (proposed public offering of common stock)
  • EXPE +2.6% (following BKNG results)
  • NMIH +1.5% (prices 3.7 mln shares of common stock at $19.75 per share)
  • DPW +1.2% (reschedules investor webcast to March 15 at 5pm ET – originally set for February 21 – focus of the webcast will be on MTIX)
  • STMP +1% (hired former Mattel Chief Technology Officer Jonathan Bourgoine as its new Chief Technology Officer)
  • BEDU +1% (prices 10 mln ADS’s at $19.00 per ADS)
  • SHPG +1% (receives FDA acceptance of BLA for Cal-PEG)
  • BIDU +0.8% (Baidu.com’s iQiyi unit filed for $1.5 bln IPO late yesterday)

Analyst comments:

  • MELI +3.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • CVX +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
  • ADM +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research)
  • PM +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance

  • FTR -24.8%, (also suspends the quarterly cash dividend on the common stock), ELF -10.8%, TSRO -9.2%, VRX -8.3%, ACAD -7.6%, BGFV -7.6%, BGS -7.1%, MNKD -7%, LOW -6.7%, GTE -6.1%, ALRM -5.8%, EOG -5.6%, PZZA -5.1%, GGB -4.7%, ROG -4.5%, SSYS -4%, HTZ -3.9%, TA -3.8%, JONE -3.1%, SSW -3.1%, CYH -2.9%, MHLD -2.8%, TDOC -2.7%, TNET -2.6%, JAZZ -2.6%, WDAY-2.3%, VTVT -2.3%, (also files for $250 mln share Class A common stock shelf offering ), CROX -2.3%, DXCM -2.2%, SQ -1.7%, DRYS -1.1%, FGEN -0.8%

Other news:

  • ATRA -6.6% (proposed offering of $150 mln in shares of common stock)
  • CELG -6.1% (receives Refusal to File letter from the FDA regarding its New Drug Application for ozanimod in development for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis)
  • GM -1.5% (General Motors announced 40 mln share secondary offering of common stock by the UAW Retiree Medical Benefits Trust; GM intends to repurchase a portion of the shares being offered)
  • DISCA -1.3% (still checking – DISCA / SNI set election deadline – expect to consummate the transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement on March 6, 2018)
  • DM -0.8% (files for $500 mln common units representing limited partner interests shelf offering)

Analyst comments:

  • ALV -1.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Societe Generale)

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Go Tell Your Broker You Want an Allocation of IQiyi — the Chinese Netflix

The call should go something like this.

You (thick Irish accent): Hello friendly broker, this is Cornelius and I have an account with you blokes over there.
Broker: How might I help you Sir?

You: Very well. I was reading in the morning papers today that the Chinese Netflix is coming public. The name is IQiyi and The Fly over at iBankCoin told me to tell you to give me an allocation.
Broker: Sorry, who is The Fly?

You: I said, he’s a blogger from the internets. Don’t you have ears on that daft head of yours?
Broker: No, I understand what a blogger is. I just didn’t understand why he’d tell you to ask for an allocation.

You: He said it was gonna be a humdinger — a real scorcher — ya hear? He told me to ask for an allocation, so here I am. I want to buy it for me kids — pass it down to them on their wedding days — maybe pay off their college loans with the profits. What do you think about that?
Broker: Well, I’ll have to see if we have any available. That IPO is gonna be a hot one and all of our institutional accounts are getting the vast majority of it.

You: So what are you trying to tell me then? Do you mean I can only get the shit IPOs that trade lower on the first day of trading, like that Facebook shit you shoveled down me throat several years ago?
Broker: Well, look at how well that did. You’re up 5 times on your money.

You: Don’t change the fookin’ question. You know as well as I — that IPO was a curse from hell. I nearly got divorced over that thing. Me wife Mary said that if it lost another point, just another point, she was gonna leave me — take the kids and go live with her Mother. It was only by the grace of God that the darned thing turned around and made me a little money.
Broker: I understand Cornelius. That’s why you retain us, to hold you into these good deals when they look bad. Look, I probably can’t get you any IQ — because the deal is so oversubscribed and your account isn’t in the top percentile at the firm.

You: Is that the ticker on the damned thing, IQ?
Broker: Yes.

You: So you’re saying I’m not smart enough to get any of it. Aren’t ya?
Broker: No, not at all. IQ is just the ticker.

You: But I can’t get any of this IQ — because me account size is too small for ya, isn’t it?
Broker: Well…

You: Answer the fookin’ question ya fiddler benz. I want some of that IQ you have over there. I am perfectly willing to pay top dollar for it and hold it until the day that I die. I want to know why ya won’t sell me any?
Broker: Because it’s all gone. All of the institutions and large accounts bought it.

You: So all of the people with big accounts and all of the money bought all of the IQ?
Broker: Yes, they have it all.

You: And I can’t get any IQ?
Broker: No, absolutely not.

You: So how the fuck am I supposed to make any money on this thing?
Broker: Buy the after-market.

You: You mean buy it after it’s +200% from one of those rich clients of yours who’s getting all of the IQ now?
Broker: Well, not exactly. You’d be buying it from the market. Whoever is selling it.

You: What do ya mean the market? I might not’ve went to Oxford, but I’m smart enough to know that anyone getting an IPO that goes up 200% on the first day is very likely to sell for a quick profit. You’d have to be stupid not to do that — especially considering how some of these IPOs perform afterwards. And you want me to buy in the after-market, so that one of your rich clients can take his money out and buy something nice with it? How fookin’ stupid do you think me and me wife Mary are?
Broker: Sorry if I offended. Maybe we should sit this one out then — you know, wait for a dip to get in.

You: Yeah, I think I’ll do that, wait for a dip and all. You have yourself a great day, ok?
Broker: Sorry, goodbye Cornelius.

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Powell Punishment: New Fed Chair Brutalized by Wall Street After First Public Testimony; Retest the LowsFAGS Bust Loose

How did you like that last hour of trading?

If you’re sitting there pondering the existence of God, wondering how it all went wrong — iBC’s RAUL offered a nice explanation as to why Wall Street might’ve disliked Powell. He answered their fucking questions and spoke very little gibberish.

Truth be told, we expected Powell to be punished, since he’s new and doesn’t know a single thing about economics. This assertion is Wall Street’s petty way of communicating with the new Fed, expressing its wishes through extortion — like all really good criminals do.

Now with the bear out of the bag and the Zerohedgers out and about — the retest the lows people will be screaming from every steeple and every spire for stocks to retest the lows because that’s what markets are supposed to do because technical analysis and price memory and all of that other bullshit that charlatans train you to believe is true.

Here we go.

My oil stocks were hit with bricks all session long. My hedges softened their fall. Perhaps we bounce tomorrow and finish the month off in proper fashion, or perhaps not. “The Fly” is prepared for all eventualities and can to weather the strongest of earthquakes and the most powerful blizzards the world has ever seen. While you toy there with your ornamental charts, sipping on your drinking chocolate, I assess and plot and scheme and long for harder days, charitable gifts that define the evolutionary spirit — the sort of stuff that has marked the upward surge of man for a millennia. All of your men are soft and your women retarded because you’re all a bunch of spoiled cream puffs — easily shattered, melted by just a single ray of light.

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Market Fucks With Powell: Dollars, Rates Up, Equities, Commodities SOFT

This is typical hazing for new Fed Chairs. Nothing Powell said today was crazy or more hawkish than expected. This is typical Wall Street towel snapping Powell’s ass (no homo) — testing the man’s mettle — trying to show him who’s boss.

Here’s the trade that’s playing out.

Higher rates is pushing up dollars.

TLT down, UUP up

Higher yields is hurting rate sensitive industries, like Utes and REITs.

The higher dollar is an explicit implication of benign inflation, ergo sending gold sharply lower.

Gold miners have been destroyed. I sold my JNUG yesterday.

Higher rates means a widening yield curve — bullish for banks.

Bank stocks are all higher, especially regionals.

Other than that, equities are soft and commodities are now weak — across the board. Defensive stocks are also catching a bid.

I think this trade has legs and believe rates will press higher — sending the 10yr close to 3.00% inside the next week. When that happens, pandemonium will break loose. As such, I took on another hedge, buying 3x short REIT — DRV.

Aside from my oils, I am hedged via SQQQ and DRV.

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Jerome Hayden Powell, Esq: QE Worked

I know there’s an autistic report floating around that says QE didn’t work. However, that report is absolute shit — written by people who are literally retarded, drooling of the mouth reprobates. Anyone in the market back in 2009 knows QE worked. We lathered ourselves in the cocaine dust provided by POMO — provided by Dr. Bernanke.

Now we have a new Fed Chair, a suave banker who is going to make the Fed great again. After hearing Jerome Hayden Powell, Esq during today’s testimony, I recant my earlier opinions about him and now believe he is the best Fed Chair in American history.

Here’s Fed’s Powell setting the record straight, telling all of those assholes out there to shut up about QE not being great — effectively placing the QE tool back in the Fed’s toolbox to be used, aggressively, at a later date.

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I’ve always been keen on buying oil stocks; but often disappointed over the lack of rigging in the price, which in the past caused wanton disappointment and scathing losses. Thanks to President Trump, all of that bullshit has ended.

The era of the oil barrel is here now. The House of Saud are back to fucking with the price of crude and the frackers are operating 24 hours a day in the shale — working hard to extract sweet and delicious crude. I know the industry can be daunting, especially for an ignorant fool like yourself. But know this, you’re only ignorant thru lack of experience and that lack of experience makes you dumb, up until the point when you’ve earned some tangible experience.

See how that works?

Here are my oil longs and some others I like.


Frackers worth your attention.


Remember to hedge those barrel bombs with a dose of SQQQ — cause fuck the Nasdaq.

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Macy’s Blows Away Estimates: Is Retail Back?

The venerable Jeffrey Macke weighs in on the Macy’s quarter, which was much better than expected.

And then he tweeted this shit, which really got my almonds going.

How dare Jeffrey suggest America has a love affair with retail. The grim narrative I’ve been comfortable with is abandoned shopping malls with overgrown weeds inside of them and shattered glass storefronts. But Macke is saying retail is awesome and he knows much more about retail than I’ll never know. So what’s the fucking status update on the mall?

All we have to do, frankly, is gander, mind you, at the share prices.

Returns over the past 6 months:

KSS +70%
M +45%
DDS +20%
ANF +73%
URBN +72%
AEO +55%
ZUMZ +52%
BKE +48%
GCO +43%
LE +40%
TUES +56%
BURL +43%
TGT +39%
SITE +53%
HD +26%
TLRD +100%
FOSL +61%
OLLI +37%

The list goes on and on. Color me surprised — but it appears retail and the mall are back — in terms of higher stock prices.

As for the fundies…

…I guess dying at a slower than expected pace is good news in this environ.

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Morning Poppers (WITCH HUNT! Edition)

Good morning lads.

It’s a beautiful day here in Princeton, NJ — a tad above 30 degree with clear skies — but it feels like zero. America has a great big beautiful stock’d market and the President of the United States tweets shit like this on a regular basis.

Futures are slightly higher ahead of Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. I am certain it will go well. After all, he’s a fucking lawyer and is a trained liar with an incentive to be as nonplus as possible in order to skate into the crime organization called the Federal Reserve.

Nothing stands out this morning, so I might as well hit you with some actual news and then go fetch myself a scalding hot cup of coffee. Fuck with me, I swear to God I will throw it into your digital faces.

DPW +8.9% (announces California finance lending license issued to subsidiary)
ABIO +20.1% (Initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant Capital Mkts)
Macy’s beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides FY19 above consensus
Cree target raised to $36 at Williams Capital Group
GW Pharma receives Orphan Drug Designation for the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for cannabidiol for treatment of tuberous sclerosis
AutoZone misses by $0.39, reports revs in-line
SeaWorld Entertainment misses by $0.05, beats on revs
Veritone target lowered to $10 at B. Riley FBR, Inc. on lower ests
NTRI -26.7% (Target lowered to $52 at B. Riley FBR, Inc. following earnings/guidance)

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How Long Can This Shit Last?

It’s all very well and good that we’re all enjoying ourselves — getting fat and sloppy — thanks to an evergreen bull market that only gets interrupted by volatility ETNs gone wrong. But we’re up 2,000 points over the past two weeks.

The FAANG fags have forklifted nearly 10% over a fortnight, all the while David “Boss” Hogg bullies you impotent manlets into ceding over control of the 2nd amendment. Boss Hogg is truly an inspiration to all aspiring dictators.

I am still positioned very long and my YTD gains in Exodus‘ Quant strategy is humiliating passive SPYfags into killing themselves by jumping out of airplanes. But I took on a hedge today — SHORT NASDAQ x 3 — and would like to eventually liquidate my entire tactical account in order to short more. I want the market to crash and for accordion playing monkeys to litter Wall Street when the blood flows thickest and people are at their lowest. It’s at that point, that utter despair, will Le Fly step back in to save the day and sop up the margin liquidations of so many lesser men and clownish women who’ve lost their nest egg in the market that never went down.

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