Not Strong Enough

With breadth at about 70% to the upside today, three out of four of my “horsemen of financial insolvency” are lower today, with YELP being a flaccid example of strength. For the most part, today’s rally is being mailed in. I am not seeing a lot of commitment by the bulls and the battlefield stocks, like the ones I am long, are still under pressure.

In order for this market to take off we need a spectacle, something so crazy and outrageous it will send the bears running from the battlefield with pikes in their stomachs and fear in their hearts. But this, this is nothing more than child’s play. They will brush it off and get back to work on these stocks in the morning, or maybe even later on today.

Remember who you are dealing with here, deviants, twisted, dangerous people, who harbor ill-will towards man and would like to see the human race suffer–from starvation if possible. These people need to be defeated, else all that is good and righteous, democracy, will be lost forever. Your grandchildren will grow up to eat shoe leather and their kids will most likely be deformed from malnourishment, join local militias, and become murderers.

But all of that can be stopped here, right now, if the stock market could gap higher by another 5% or so in a period no more than 1 week. With that, we can send these evil sub-humans back into hibernation, to play amongst the rats, as we bask in the sunlight of freedom.

SHHH, NO BRAGGING

I bet you’d expect to come here and see “The Fly” bragging about his barking dogs. Well, you’d be wrong. This is a new Fly, one who doesn’t brag over barking dogs, or any dog for that matter. Men of distinguished honour know to keep quiet and to not jinx when fortune smiles upon them. I’d be the first to tell you how awfully wrong I’ve been here, over the past 6 weeks. I hope that doesn’t take away from the fact that I’ve navigated these waters, live on the internet, almost flawlessly, since 2007.

I am always going to have enemies. A great many of you gorillas will throw feces at me, no matter what–misfit malcontents who’d burn the planet to a cinder if given the chance. It’s the nature of man to commit sins, which is why I carry a knife at all times, to better stab those people in the faces, should I find it necessary.

I RESERVE THE RIGHTS TO BAN ALL OF YOU FROM THIS VENUE. However, instead of doing that, gracefully, I’ve let you partake in a bit of “chin-wagging” at the site, so that we all might benefit from the humor. If one cannot cry, then he must laugh. It is law and it is written.

So, I hope to recover some of my losses today. I have a very long road to travel. And, I am mindful of the fact that it will take an absolutely epic sequence of events to save my 2014 from being a disaster. Nonetheless, you ought to heed my advice when I say “be humble” and to “shut your jaws” when the market is speaking. At some point or another, it makes us all look like jackasses.

HOW’D YOU LIKE THAT?

I looked into the depths of hell and decided to spit in its face. The end result is what I deem as a ‘best case scenario’ with today’s ‘key reversal’ washout. Some weaker men will take this respite as cause to sideline themselves, like crabs. However, I think we have at least 15% upside in most growth stocks during the month of May.

I have written off April. I am not counting on this rally to continue forever. I expect to exit April with egregious losses, but not too much lower from here.

Bottom line: Ditch the dividend old man stocks, man up, and go long growth.

NOTE: My losses for the year stand at -24%

My #1, Back Up the Truck Now, Idea

Courtesy of The PPT‘s flawless track record in measuring YELP, I added to my position.
YELP

If I keep buying and buying, eventually I’ll be right. All that aside, this is the first time since YELP’s drop that the algorithms flagged it as OVERSOLD.

The Number 1 Reason Why I Am Not Selling Here

I cannot find a single instance when a group of stocks, like tech, fell this far in such a short period of time without bouncing. I have looked at the data going back to the late 90′s and it is an absolute black swan to expect stocks to trade down in May, following a collective 30-50% beating during the months of March and April.

This included 2000, 2008 and 2009, during the worst stock markets known to mankind. What is so exactly unique about this decline to warrant another leg lower in May?

While we might drawdown another 2-5%, from now until the end of April. I am having a hard time justifying selling now, aside from my desire to “just end it all”, which is being guided by the weaker side of my emotions.

When I said I could hold my breath a long time, I meant it.

How it Feels

I know this is the car wreck that most of you wished didn’t happen; but you come here to see it anyway. As my stocks careen lower again, a very common question is “how are you holding up?” or “how does it feel?” Honestly, if you’ve been in the market for more than a decade, I am sure you’ve had some really bad draw downs, so you should already know.

For me, this is a little different, especially since I had such a great 2013 and kick ass beginning to 2014. To undergo this sort of carnage is surreal and I know it hasn’t hit me yet, the daunting ramifications of it all. The dream of a V-shape recovery is scoffed at over here, meaning my office. I am almost resigned to the point of apathy, waiting it out, in between bouts of frenetic energy that says to just sell it all and start fresh.

Again, I want to keep an honest dialogue here, so I can tell you that the idea of selling everything and “starting fresh” is very appealing to me, even if it meant I sold at the lows. You can’t change what’s already done and a stock is only as good as tomorrow’s closing price. Whatever happened in the past happened. It’s no use lamenting over it and wallowing in misery, since that’s counter-productive and doesn’t help anyone.

To answer your question: shock is the best word to describe it.

Bloodmoon Meltdown

Everything was all fine and dandy until a war broke out in the Ukraine. I can’t say for certain that this means nothing, since our government seems to be pretty hellbent on protecting Ukraine, in some shape or fashion. All of the comparisons of Putin to Hitler are a joke. It’s a sad situation for the good people living in Kiev and I’d hate to be living there right now, looking down the barrel of a Russian gun. However, on a macro level, the Ukraine isn’t very important to world trade.

I hope this can get resolved peacefully, through some good old fashioned diplomacy. This truly is Obama’s defining moment as President.

As for stocks, they’re frightening right now, the way they’re whipsawing back and forth. However, it’s worth noting they are going much more back than forth. Nevertheless, I remain constructive around the idea of stabilization. It’s a very contrarian opinion, one that I’ve been wrong on for some time now, digging in my heels to the point of absurdity. But aside from the action of the past 6 weeks, we’ve certainly crossed the threshold of significant oversold levels late last week. Any further deterioration is simply salt atop the wounds, gratuitous gluttony mixed with fear on behalf of the market assembly.

While it may succor me to think that the bounce off the lows will be fierce and magnanimous, there hasn’t been too many signs of optimism.

One can still dream of upward reversals, bears running down narrow corridors, trampling over and skewing those in their way. In glorious fashion, the market would soar to new highs, amidst earnings beats and upped guidance. Putin would be declared a “miscreant fool”, as the UN bombed the Kremlin into a garbage can.

One can dream and dream I shall. Until then…reality.

Gold Gets the Knife Today

So far, this is the biggest single day draw down for gold since the taper day. If bonds can get hit too, dare I say, we are setting up for a really rip roaring market here today.

There are some dislocations in the market, due to high margin interest, margin calls and fear. The forced selling will abate, as the market stabilizes, and those with ample cash reserves should fill the vacuum and bid stocks higher–at some point in this bear cycle. Even if you are the biggest, grizzliest bear, you should know, based upon market history, that drawdowns take time. Bear markets extend over a long period of time, torturing longs with small drops, false moves higher, then large gaps to the downside.

Aside from the high growth drawdown, the general market is doing just fine.

The only reason why I stubbornly stick to my bullish thesis is because I am conditioned, via 5 years of uninterrupted stocks market gains, to believe that the stock market is the only thing worth saving in America. There is a lot of liquidity out there and no place to put all of that money.

Argue against it all you like; but buying any dip, no matter the news, has been a winning strategy since 2009. Pray tell me, why is it different this time around?

Not Strong Enough

With breadth at about 70% to the upside today, three out of four of my “horsemen of financial insolvency” are lower today, with YELP being a flaccid example of strength. For the most part, today’s rally is being mailed in. I am not seeing a lot of commitment by the bulls and the battlefield stocks, like the ones I am long, are still under pressure.

In order for this market to take off we need a spectacle, something so crazy and outrageous it will send the bears running from the battlefield with pikes in their stomachs and fear in their hearts. But this, this is nothing more than child’s play. They will brush it off and get back to work on these stocks in the morning, or maybe even later on today.

Remember who you are dealing with here, deviants, twisted, dangerous people, who harbor ill-will towards man and would like to see the human race suffer–from starvation if possible. These people need to be defeated, else all that is good and righteous, democracy, will be lost forever. Your grandchildren will grow up to eat shoe leather and their kids will most likely be deformed from malnourishment, join local militias, and become murderers.

But all of that can be stopped here, right now, if the stock market could gap higher by another 5% or so in a period no more than 1 week. With that, we can send these evil sub-humans back into hibernation, to play amongst the rats, as we bask in the sunlight of freedom.

SHHH, NO BRAGGING

I bet you’d expect to come here and see “The Fly” bragging about his barking dogs. Well, you’d be wrong. This is a new Fly, one who doesn’t brag over barking dogs, or any dog for that matter. Men of distinguished honour know to keep quiet and to not jinx when fortune smiles upon them. I’d be the first to tell you how awfully wrong I’ve been here, over the past 6 weeks. I hope that doesn’t take away from the fact that I’ve navigated these waters, live on the internet, almost flawlessly, since 2007.

I am always going to have enemies. A great many of you gorillas will throw feces at me, no matter what–misfit malcontents who’d burn the planet to a cinder if given the chance. It’s the nature of man to commit sins, which is why I carry a knife at all times, to better stab those people in the faces, should I find it necessary.

I RESERVE THE RIGHTS TO BAN ALL OF YOU FROM THIS VENUE. However, instead of doing that, gracefully, I’ve let you partake in a bit of “chin-wagging” at the site, so that we all might benefit from the humor. If one cannot cry, then he must laugh. It is law and it is written.

So, I hope to recover some of my losses today. I have a very long road to travel. And, I am mindful of the fact that it will take an absolutely epic sequence of events to save my 2014 from being a disaster. Nonetheless, you ought to heed my advice when I say “be humble” and to “shut your jaws” when the market is speaking. At some point or another, it makes us all look like jackasses.

HOW’D YOU LIKE THAT?

I looked into the depths of hell and decided to spit in its face. The end result is what I deem as a ‘best case scenario’ with today’s ‘key reversal’ washout. Some weaker men will take this respite as cause to sideline themselves, like crabs. However, I think we have at least 15% upside in most growth stocks during the month of May.

I have written off April. I am not counting on this rally to continue forever. I expect to exit April with egregious losses, but not too much lower from here.

Bottom line: Ditch the dividend old man stocks, man up, and go long growth.

NOTE: My losses for the year stand at -24%

My #1, Back Up the Truck Now, Idea

Courtesy of The PPT‘s flawless track record in measuring YELP, I added to my position.
YELP

If I keep buying and buying, eventually I’ll be right. All that aside, this is the first time since YELP’s drop that the algorithms flagged it as OVERSOLD.

The Number 1 Reason Why I Am Not Selling Here

I cannot find a single instance when a group of stocks, like tech, fell this far in such a short period of time without bouncing. I have looked at the data going back to the late 90′s and it is an absolute black swan to expect stocks to trade down in May, following a collective 30-50% beating during the months of March and April.

This included 2000, 2008 and 2009, during the worst stock markets known to mankind. What is so exactly unique about this decline to warrant another leg lower in May?

While we might drawdown another 2-5%, from now until the end of April. I am having a hard time justifying selling now, aside from my desire to “just end it all”, which is being guided by the weaker side of my emotions.

When I said I could hold my breath a long time, I meant it.

How it Feels

I know this is the car wreck that most of you wished didn’t happen; but you come here to see it anyway. As my stocks careen lower again, a very common question is “how are you holding up?” or “how does it feel?” Honestly, if you’ve been in the market for more than a decade, I am sure you’ve had some really bad draw downs, so you should already know.

For me, this is a little different, especially since I had such a great 2013 and kick ass beginning to 2014. To undergo this sort of carnage is surreal and I know it hasn’t hit me yet, the daunting ramifications of it all. The dream of a V-shape recovery is scoffed at over here, meaning my office. I am almost resigned to the point of apathy, waiting it out, in between bouts of frenetic energy that says to just sell it all and start fresh.

Again, I want to keep an honest dialogue here, so I can tell you that the idea of selling everything and “starting fresh” is very appealing to me, even if it meant I sold at the lows. You can’t change what’s already done and a stock is only as good as tomorrow’s closing price. Whatever happened in the past happened. It’s no use lamenting over it and wallowing in misery, since that’s counter-productive and doesn’t help anyone.

To answer your question: shock is the best word to describe it.

Bloodmoon Meltdown

Everything was all fine and dandy until a war broke out in the Ukraine. I can’t say for certain that this means nothing, since our government seems to be pretty hellbent on protecting Ukraine, in some shape or fashion. All of the comparisons of Putin to Hitler are a joke. It’s a sad situation for the good people living in Kiev and I’d hate to be living there right now, looking down the barrel of a Russian gun. However, on a macro level, the Ukraine isn’t very important to world trade.

I hope this can get resolved peacefully, through some good old fashioned diplomacy. This truly is Obama’s defining moment as President.

As for stocks, they’re frightening right now, the way they’re whipsawing back and forth. However, it’s worth noting they are going much more back than forth. Nevertheless, I remain constructive around the idea of stabilization. It’s a very contrarian opinion, one that I’ve been wrong on for some time now, digging in my heels to the point of absurdity. But aside from the action of the past 6 weeks, we’ve certainly crossed the threshold of significant oversold levels late last week. Any further deterioration is simply salt atop the wounds, gratuitous gluttony mixed with fear on behalf of the market assembly.

While it may succor me to think that the bounce off the lows will be fierce and magnanimous, there hasn’t been too many signs of optimism.

One can still dream of upward reversals, bears running down narrow corridors, trampling over and skewing those in their way. In glorious fashion, the market would soar to new highs, amidst earnings beats and upped guidance. Putin would be declared a “miscreant fool”, as the UN bombed the Kremlin into a garbage can.

One can dream and dream I shall. Until then…reality.

Gold Gets the Knife Today

So far, this is the biggest single day draw down for gold since the taper day. If bonds can get hit too, dare I say, we are setting up for a really rip roaring market here today.

There are some dislocations in the market, due to high margin interest, margin calls and fear. The forced selling will abate, as the market stabilizes, and those with ample cash reserves should fill the vacuum and bid stocks higher–at some point in this bear cycle. Even if you are the biggest, grizzliest bear, you should know, based upon market history, that drawdowns take time. Bear markets extend over a long period of time, torturing longs with small drops, false moves higher, then large gaps to the downside.

Aside from the high growth drawdown, the general market is doing just fine.

The only reason why I stubbornly stick to my bullish thesis is because I am conditioned, via 5 years of uninterrupted stocks market gains, to believe that the stock market is the only thing worth saving in America. There is a lot of liquidity out there and no place to put all of that money.

Argue against it all you like; but buying any dip, no matter the news, has been a winning strategy since 2009. Pray tell me, why is it different this time around?