***Housing starts rise 4.4% v est. of 1.4%***
Mortgage refis are on pace for +60% year over year and new home sales continue to show strength, despite the fact that housing related stocks have recently been skinned and char-broiled. As the laws of the land would have it, my burgeoning TPH position only started to knife lower, in an ultra violent way, after I started to brag about how great a position the housing market was in. A rather fresh and inviting +10% profit quickly morphed into a nuanced loser of sorts, leaving me, Le Fly, in shambles about the rocks and the dirt.
I’ve been trying to figure this market out my entire life. Sometimes I get it just right and make so much money, my arms involuntarily start punching people in the face. I toss money around, like the world is my strip club, and chalk up the wanton excesses to “what goes around comes around.” This, of course, is a recipe for idiocy, largess; but its never stopped me in the past. I’ll be damned if its gonna stop me now.
The older I get, the more ridiculous the market appears to me. I consider it to be a living entity, who is literally trying to murder me, via hook or crook. The moment I escape its wrath and celebrate a transient victory, I am presented with a Byzantine endgame, whereby I become pre-occupied with a myriad of puzzles and death-traps by which I have X amount of hours to see my way through to safety.
A man of my talents can pursue this unrequited passion for so long. From the moment I entered this business in the late 90’s, I’ve been met with rolling market catastrophes, on a regular and continuous basis. For the love of God, shortly after I got on my own, after a period of vagrant cold calling, the market halted for trade, shut the fuck down, and went straight down the toilet. Out of the class of 100 or so young men who entered the training program at the firm I was employed at, only a handful of us are still in the business.
This is a business, for better or for worse, of attrition. It wears you down until you have nothing left. Only then, when you are faced with a decision and a path, will you learn if this business is for you. I’ve been faced with this reality numerous times over the past 17 years and have always chose to bear down and make it work. Only through ox-headed perseverance will you succeed at being a trader, money manager, operator of coin, in this god forsaken avenue of employment.