Thursday, September 29, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,171 Blog Posts

Mizhuo Downgrades $TWTR on Valuation, says the Company is Undeserving of Premium Bid

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This is a fine day to defecate all over Twitter, following its recent run up in price. After a 45% run off the lows, the analyst community says ‘enough is enough with this Jack Dorsey horseshit, let’s all downgrade the stock together.’ And that’s exactly what’s happening now.

Mizhuo out with a note this morning, citing valuation concerns and the fact that Twitter is a massive turd, undeserving of a premium, LinkedIn style, bid.

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Former Philly Fed’s Plosser: Yellen Fed Credibility Damaged, says Fed Has ‘No Real Strategy’

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Former Philly’s Fed Plosser is calling out the Yellen Fed for being inconsistent and rudderless in their official policy on interest rates. Essentially, Plosser thinks they’re a bunch of fucking morons wasting everyone’s time with abject drivel, words that are effectively meaningless that are never backed up with actions.

“They say they’re data-dependent but in September they couldn’t even point to any data that suggest they should stand pat,” he said in the interview with Jon Ferro, David Westin and Alix Steel. “That does damage, I think, to their credibility about them being data-dependent. It’s really troubling.”

Officials “have no real strategy about how they’re going to proceed, so they can’t communicate to the markets about what’s going to happen, and the markets are guessing,” Plosser said. “They’re talking like they intend to raise rates — and there’s lots of reasons why they should raise rates and they know that — but then they never act.”

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Citi Warns Disney Against Acquiring the Dismal Twitter

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I wonder why Citi is hating so much? Isn’t Twitter chic and in style with the hipsters, persons who might like to view ESPN content on the app, or perhaps share Mickey Mouse pictures with their friends and strangers who ‘follow’ them?

Apparently, Citi doesn’t give a shit about that stuff and thinks Disney will suffer a 10% drawdown, should they be stupid enough to buy the money losing Twitter.

They makes the case here.

Via Bloomberg

1. Trouble with internet M&A
Previous mergers and acquisitions in the internet space examined by Citi yielded few media marriages that turned out well. “In the last 15 years, we cannot think of a single web-based property that was successfully acquired by a traditional media firm.” Specific instances listed include AOL Inc. and Time Warner Inc., as well as MySpace Inc. and News Corp.

2. Twitter has its challenges
This has been a story for quite some time, and is the reason shares of Twitter have been declining for a number of months. Unfortunately, Citi doesn’t see these trends turning more positive anytime soon. From troubling user growth to management turnover, Twitter is under increasing scrutiny.

3. Yesterday won’t be the first decline for Disney’s stock
Citi ran the numbers on two scenarios: Disney buys Twitter all in cash or it buys Twitter all in stock. Either way, Citi believes shares of Disney would see declines as a results of the deal, with drops of $5 or $9, respectively. That represents a fall of nearly 10 percent in the worst case scenario.

4. Disney can’t do much to help Twitter
Lastly, Citi didn’t see many ways for Disney to solve Twitter’s problems. The team said that they believe Twitter and Yahoo! both lost money on the deal to stream NFL games online, which leads them to believe even more content on the social media platform won’t necessarily benefit the company financially.

“If history is any guide, Twitter entails significant risks for the buyer,” they conclude.

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Deutsche Bank’s CEO: No Need For New Capital, ‘Comfortably Equipped with Free Liquidity’

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In a new interview with Bild, the CEO of Deutsche Bank took his time to remind everyone that he presides over the very best bank and that nothing, whatsoever, is wrong with the ongoings at his institution, whose share price has demonstrated a keen ability to both obliterate and eviscerate any and all shareholders — off by a staggering 60% year to fucking date.

“This is not an issue for us.” The manager had also returned reports and speculation about alleged talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) on state aid for the German bank. “I have asked the Chancellor at any time for help. I have indicated like nothing.” Cryan said. He could not understand “how someone can say that.”

Even its shareholders do not want to ask for help of the German Bank CEO. “The question of a capital increase currently does not arise,” said the manager. The Bank met all regulatory capital requirements. They have “far fewer risks in the books than in the past” and was “comfortably equipped with free liquidity”. The CEO described the situation of Deutsche Bank as better than it was currently perceived from the outside. For “much trouble” but have disclosure of the demand of the US Department of Justice provided $ 14 billion, Cryan said. “It was clear from the outset that we will not pay this sum.” He assume “that we the Justice Department in the same fair treatment as the American banks that have been compared.”

When planned reconstruction of the Institute, the manager sees on the right track. When targeted reduction of a total of 9,000 points, the bank was “in the plan. The negotiations with the works councils have been largely completed.” The CEO stressed that he considers the planned sale of Postbank stated: “.. Everything is ready, we could Postbank tomorrow enter into new hands – but then the price has to be right, we have time”

When asked whether there would be a bonus waiver for directors like 2016 again next year, Cryan said: “We’re in a difficult conversion, everyone knows that no one harbors unrealistic expectations..”

Just a few days ago, Deutsche Bank issued a similar statement, suggesting that everything was okay — which harkened back to an era not to long ago when assholes ran their mouths just before the entire kit and kaboodle went kaput.

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Mika Brzezinski Is Very Nervous After Trump-Clinton Debate

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At first glance, you’d ‘say so what, who cares what she’s feeling right now?’ But you’re not armed with all of the facts of who she is and what she represents. Her Father is Zbigniew Brzezinski — one of the primary thought leaders of the modern globalist, crony capitalist, neocon movement in America, right alongside men like Kissinger. She’s merely a pseudo-literary, a lowly journalist shrouded by the gigantic shadow of her Father. But it’s still interesting to see these people panic over the specter of a Trump ascendency.

This.is.gold.

Look as she’s nearly in tears, next to that moron with the Christopher Walken haircut pandering to her nonsensical, self-induced panic.

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Deflationary Vortex: Food Prices Fall the Most Since 1960

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One of the silver linings of having some money during depressions is that you’re able to buy so much. Just think of all the fun you could’ve had during the wonderful days of the Great Depression, when people cost less than a pint of beer. For many years, I’ve suffered in great angst at the Whole Foods grocer, where he’d rip me off with reckless abandon. I prefer to eat food without the inconvenience of cancer causing chemicals in it. As such, my monthly grocery bill typically tops $3k for a family of five. While it’s true, my caprices lead to towards high-end olive oil, balsamic vinegar and the very best cuts of meat, I would prefer to spend less for greedily shoving provisions into my gullet.

Well, according to recent data, it appears the local grocer is in a bit of a bind — thanks to Walmart and other crony capitalists —  and prices are crashing, precipitously, the most since 1960.

In a startling development, almost unheard of outside a recession, food prices have fallen for nine straight months in the U.S. It’s the longest streak of food deflation since 1960 — with the exception of 2009, when the financial crisis was winding down. Analysts credit low oil and grain prices, as well as cutthroat competition from discounters. Consumers are winning out; grocery chains, not so much. Their margins and, in some cases, their stock prices, are taking a hit. Eggs and beef have have grown especially inexpensive, and it isn’t only an American phenomenon: In England, Aldi recently offered its prized 8-ounce wagyu steaks from New Zealand for about $6.50 — a little more than the price of a pint of beer.

“The severity of what we’re seeing is completely unprecedented,” said Scott Mushkin, an analyst at Wolfe Research who has studied grocery prices around the country for more than ten years. “We’ve never seen deflation this sharp.”

Mushkin, who researches local markets, recently found that prices of a typical basket of grocery items in Houston, had fallen almost 5 percent over the past year.

He credits, in part, the discerning behavior of shoppers like Manny Sinclair. On a weekday lunch break, the 43-year-old contractor stopped by a Wal-Mart in Secaucus, New Jersey, to pick up turtle food and paper towels.

At first, falling prices helped grocers. Low-cost commodities pushed down the tab for meat and packaged food and boosted profits. Now, deflation has turned ugly for the industry. Led by Wal-Mart, retailers are pushing down prices, eating away at their profit margins.

“It starts to border on irrational pricing,” said Jennifer Bartashus, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “People are lowering prices just to draw traffic, without thinking about their margins.”

Supermarkets are facing competition not just from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Aldi but also dollar stores and online retailer Amazon.com Inc. It could get worse. Lidl, one of Aldi’s German competitors, is building three distribution centers on the East Coast and plans to open U.S. stores by 2018. Even Whole Foods Market Inc. — famously derided as “Whole Paycheck” — is trying to compete on price through digital coupons and promotions on items such as beer and produce.

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It was only a matter of time for the deflationary vortex to whirlwind though the food industry, laying waste to margins and causing wholesale disruptions in the industry — which, inevitably, will concede the balance of the market to very large corporate players. Ordinarily, I’d dismiss this news item as transient — a minor blip in an otherwise very magnificent economy. Notwithstanding, there is an estimable draw down taking place in grocery stocks, which I find to be notable.

Most of the carnage in the food sector has been isolated, hitherto, only in the grocery stores. Chiefly, stores that compete with Walmart are getting smoked, like KR.

KR -27%
WFM -14%
SFM -24%
SVU -32%
SFS -30%
NGVC -45%
CALM -10%
FLO -27%
HAIN -14%

Just guessing out loud here, eventually the price declines will begin to hurt processed food manufacturers and meat producers. For now, the big winners are consumers.

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The Markets Have Spoken: Hillary Clinton Will Be the Next President of the United Steaks

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Yes, indeud. After last night’s glowing performance, HRC, is well on her way towards ‘sealing the deal’ — becoming the first woman to lead our great oligarchy for at least the next 4 years.

The corporate media has anointed her, painting D.J. Trump as a tax evading klansman, who’s secretly disheveled and completely broke, wrought with onerous debt loads, hiding in corners inside of his $100 million penthouse. On the other hand, men like John Harwood, hard news guys who we all love and adore for their unbiased truisms, speak the truth about Hillary. She’ll enter the Presidency as the most accomplished and experienced person ever, well capable of dealing with pesky American jingoists, continuing the grande multi-cultural experience adopted by our first Hawaiian President, Barack Obama (please do not mention his middle name).

While oil might’ve collapsed today, down over 3%, stocks rose. With gains more than 120, one can only surmise that the ‘smart money’ is betting on a Clinton win, a triumphant victory over the evil forces of the ‘alt-right’, an insidious group of clown-bloggers not seen since the early Nazi days in Germany, 1930’s.

Some assholes might try to soil on the party, saying ‘but only 60% of stocks were higher today.’ I advise you to hurt those people and buy their shorts. Maybe if they get burned once or twice, they won’t touch something so hot again.

I need to head out now. Rejoice and celebrate the virtues of man, whilst holding in your disgusting inborn racism that keeps haranguing this nation’s true potential and goal towards an effervescent utopian society.

Comrades,

Fly

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October Looms: Is $FCX a Boom or Bust?

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Bullish narrative: China figures out how to get out of their banking crisis and grow their economy again. H. Clinton gets elected, providing China with the extra capital they need, gathered by ripping us off, to stockpile more copper. Freeport continues to delever its balance sheet and lives happily ever after.

Or: Freeport is unable to make profits with copper hamstrung at low levels, due to China’s inability to grow. Trump gets elected and declares China a rogue state, which starts a sequence of events that causes Freeport to refinance its $18b debt load during bad, dilutive, conditions.

Copper drops off a mountain and the shares cascade into the mid single digits.

October is the month for wanton volatility. Courtesy of Exodus‘ seasonality engines, FCX has both enjoyed and endured double digit returns and deficits for the month of October in 8 out of the past 10 years.

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I am biased. FCX has a giant hole to dig out of at a time when commodity prices are unsupportive and are headwinds for a company seeking to delever. This was one of my largest positions in 2015 and I sold it out to eventually pave the way to sell it short in 2016 –currently a 25% position of mine from $11.60.

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ISIS No Longer Controls Significant Iraqi Oil, But Still Makes $22 Million Per Month in Syria

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I remember vividly reading about ISIS crude being smuggled and sold to Turkey when WTI was near $100. Back then, pricing pressures in the region were significant because they’d sell the oil for 50% off, sort of a bargain basement terrorist going out of business sale. Apparently, they’ve lost virtually all major Iraqi oil fields and now have to rely upon Syrian fields, which are coming under severe pressure by government and Russian forces. It’s worth noting, they’re selling the oil for $15-20 per barrel now.

Perhaps it was all just a coincidence, oil dropping after ISIS grabbed control of significant reserves. We’ll know for sure, only after they lose their last field by watching to see if the price of crude runs higher as a result.

The oil ISIS holds in Syria constitutes 70% of its total income as they hold six key oilfields in the country,” Khinsi explained.

In Syria, ISIS holds three significant oilfields. Of the 80,000 barrels ISIS produces on a daily basis, it sells 50,000 through smuggling and “each barrel sells for $15 to $20.”

According to Khinsi’s figures, the extremist group makes an estimated $750,000 daily and $22.8 million per month.

But oil is not the terrorist group’s only source of income, the Kurdish economist explained. “Euphrates and Al Baath dams produce electricity and the Syrian regime buys it.”

A local from Mosul told Rudaw that ISIS is looking for other ways to gain an income, even playing on the anticipated military operation to liberate the northern Iraqi city.

“It is rumoured among the Mosul people that they will be allowed by ISIS to leave the city if they pay $4000,” a Mosul resident, who declined to reveal his name, told Rudaw, adding that “the Mosul people do not trust ISIS as they believe they will lose both, their lives and money.”

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