Relentless Melt Up; We Cannot Stop the Buying

Long until wrong, right?

Oil up
HYG up
Oil stocks up

That’s the checklist, the things we need to see before getting long. Be that as it may, if you weren’t long banks today — you didn’t make much money — with breadth stuck at 62%.

I don’t need to show you any charts, or analyze patterns for you. Quit being a fucking baby and try to understood the mood. Risk is on, fuckers. That’s all there is to it. Now your job is to figure out where the money is going next. The stocks you buy today that can blossom within 3-5 days for swing trades.

Look to the SAASfags for your answers. Believe me, that’s where the growth is at.

NOTE: Le Fly is accepting new Capstone Programme members on a limited basis. If you have questions about the programme, email me at Flybroker at Gmail.

I have a stinging feeling in my gut that I made a mistake by selling FAZ and TZA. Because of the rapid movements and the nature of the 3x instruments, I give them very little air to ‘breathe’ for fear of digging myself a deep hole. When they turn lower by 5-7%, I like to sell them and limit my loss. At 5% of my overall trading account, that drawdown is manageable.

However serious you are about trading, at some point you’ll need to inject some bias into your trades, else fall victim to the blades as they swing to and fro. As I type this, markets are on the cusp of making me look ridiculous, as they slide and become increasingly bearish. If I were to react to this now, I’d have to sell the stuff I just bought, maybe even short something to hedge or trade, and then be stuck watching the box all day like a god damned idiot.

This is no way to lead a life.

One can manage the intra-day risk by merely buying or selling near the close of trade. As a matter of fact, many of my trading mishaps have come via intra-day gambits, some out of impulse, others from boredom, frankly. This is another side effect of trading for a living, certainly one of blogging for a living and running a trading room for a living, and being a god damned recluse — hiding out in the cabinets of an oversized house that requires too much money to maintain. I’d prefer to live out the rest of my days like a vagabond, drinking gin in a green field naked.

But I can’t — thanks to my responsibilities. So I sit here and I toil. After I toil, I sit down and toil some more.

I’m trading poorly because I’m scared of risking too much at the top of the trading range, and also fearful of missing out on a potential V shaped recovery. We’re already seeing the signs of reflation, the rumors that the other rumors of recession were bullshit, the calm normality and elegance of robo-advisors taking charge and jimmy-rigging stocks higher. This is a hard job, and a difficult task. I do not pretend to know everything and never assume that my position is 100% perfect. But I do know that if I muddle through the difficult tapes and limit my losses, I’ll eventually land a monster winner or string of double digit winners to make up the difference, AND MORE.

Number one rule in trading, and doing so successfully: stay in the game.

WRONG AGAIN, this time in another 3x downside ETF. I probed with these instruments in a flaccid attempt at catching a pivot point. I should’ve take my own advice and waited for confirmation.

Plainly, there is no justification for having shorts now. Having said that, I sold out of my TZA, the last of the 3x downside FUCKERIES, for a 5% loss.

With the proceeds, I bought TDOC.

It does not appear the market is done going higher.

You can get the details elsewhere. Just know that both BAC and GS bet numbers and are rallying in the pre-market. In the BAC notes, they cited credit quality as being very good, showing no signs of a recession on the horizon. I suppose this is the sort of side note that gets lost in the shuffle, but could be of extreme value for people paying attention.

Futures are marginally higher, but the market has a positive vibe to it, barring the minor decline in WTI in the pre-market.

Bonds are selling off and Fiserv just bought FDC for $22 billion.

It appears stocks will continue jogging higher. Time to cover those shorts.

The software as a services sector was higher by 3% today and represented alpha personified prior to the recent downturn. It was, mind you, the best sector to trade, sporting gains of +35%, and it will be once again — should markets break higher.

The fundamental story is revenue repeatability, the same simple business model that made NFLX so successful and took Amazon from retard book seller to AWS and then prime Gods. The subscription model is precisely where you want to remain invested, especially in names growing rapidly, like HUBS, ZEN, NTNX, and NEWR.

The giant of the industry is CRM, higher by 150% over the past 5 years — 98% better than the SPY.

According to the Exodus seasonality tool, the software sector is just getting started.

The double edged sword is embedded in the overpriced nature of the sector. People pay up for growth, especially reliable growth, so during downturns expect this sector to get its fucking brains blown out.

All of my purchases, which included GWRE, NUGT, NTNX, SHOP, NIO, and NEWR traded well into the bell. I am most enthused about NTNX and my bias is to be wholly long soon, with vigor. As long as WTI and HYG keep going higher, I am bullish.

If we continue higher tomorrow, I’ll sell out of FAZ and TZA. My sole trepidation is weakness in the SMH, perhaps a foreshadowing of weakness to come — perhaps from the cucks at NVDA.

Let me now stress to you the importance of deploying a quantitative stratagem for long term capital appreciation.

Heading into 2019, I was overtly bearish. But I had a programme to stick to that didn’t care about my feelings. Because emotions were left out of the equation, I now preside over you with a portfolio that is 100% directed towards value, and higher by 3.1% for the year. This represents 75% of my money, so the gains are meaningful and a fine way to start off the year.

Granted, had I been in a growth only portfolio, my gains would’ve been greater. But the system took precautions, take into consideration the market as it was analyzed before the new year. If these gains continue, for the month of February, the portfolio will swap out of half of its value positions for growth, aimed at alpha.

Fastest way to getting flushed out of this market is to become a slave to your emotions. For the love of God, take a portion of your money and deploy it quantitatively. You’ll thank me in the future.

Bring back Royal Rule. Clearly, the politicians in the UK have no idea what they’re doing. Why not just tell the fish n chips in the UK to ‘bugger off’ and to suck ‘bollocks’. There will be no BREXIT.

I view this as a neutral for stocks, because literally nothing is being done. Does that make sense? Should Corbyn get in, however, that would be a negative, since he hates the EU even more than May.

Why am I not covering all shorts and going 100% long?

Recently, these large white candles, following an extended move higher had led to a blow off top. This will literally be resolved this week.

Gold is interesting here too. Buy all dips has worked for months.

As such, I bought some NUGT here.

While all of you fat fucks stuff your faced full of powdered donuts, “The Fly” is working hard inside of the stock market mine, trying to find stocks for you and your family to profit from. What thanks do I get for my efforts?

Zero.

I bought SHOP — because Canada is good at only a few things. Doing drugs, selling dog fur coats, rip off work out tights, and bullshit websites that serve as parasitical traps for upstart retailers. In this regard, SHOP is a grande dragon.

I’m looking for the fucker to break new highs, AND MORE. Bias is to the upside for stocks, with a watchful eye out for fuckeries.

First off, this morning’s moves — all of the lateral nature.

Sold CRON -5%
Sold DRIP -4%
Sold SOXS -3.3%

The breakout in crude isn’t something that I am willing to stand in front of, especially with an inverse ETF. CRON is a POS and the semis have some momo.

I bought the following SAAS stocks.

GWRE
NEWR
NTNX
SMAR

Chinese Burrito purchases

NIO

Inverse ETF purchase

TZA

On on hand, the QQQ’s may be setting up for a nice and beautiful long white candle. On the other, the small caps are weak and heading down — a divergence established by the overt strength in FANG stocks — thanks to the NFLX price hike.

Presently, I have two hedges, FAZ and TZA, and 20% allocation in TLT. In addition to my longs, I have 30% reserved in cash. Honestly, I do not have conviction in any trade now, mostly because we’re up against some resistance here, which is going to lead to a large directional move. Part of me thinks up and the other part down. We won’t know until we get past these levels, which I suspect will be resolved by the end of January.

The effects of laying off 800,000 government workers, in addition to the private contractors who depend upon US govt money is going to start stinging to the tune of -0.1% per week — DOUBLE the previous estimate of -0.1% every two weeks.

With no end in sight and democrats deeply passionate about preventing a great big beautiful border wall on out souther border, it looks like a self-inflicted wound is more than likely now.

BREAKING: The Trump administration doubles estimate of shutdown cost to economy from original forecast, source says. Here are some key economic data reports that will not be published. https://t.co/mvoFUdeygy pic.twitter.com/l9qM8mJOD3

— CNBC (@CNBC) January 15, 2019