***Housing starts rise 4.4% v est. of 1.4%***

Mortgage refis are on pace for +60% year over year and new home sales continue to show strength, despite the fact that housing related stocks have recently been skinned and char-broiled. As the laws of the land would have it, my burgeoning TPH position only started to knife lower, in an ultra violent way, after I started to brag about how great a position the housing market was in. A rather fresh and inviting +10% profit quickly morphed into a nuanced loser of sorts, leaving me, Le Fly, in shambles about the rocks and the dirt.

I’ve been trying to figure this market out my entire life. Sometimes I get it just right and make so much money, my arms involuntarily start punching people in the face. I toss money around, like the world is my strip club, and chalk up the wanton excesses to “what goes around comes around.” This, of course, is a recipe for idiocy, largess; but its never stopped me in the past. I’ll be damned if its gonna stop me now.

The older I get, the more ridiculous the market appears to me. I consider it to be a living entity, who is literally trying to murder me, via hook or crook. The moment I escape its wrath and celebrate a transient victory, I am presented with a Byzantine endgame, whereby I become pre-occupied with a myriad of puzzles and death-traps by which I have X amount of hours to see my way through to safety.

A man of my talents can pursue this unrequited passion for so long. From the moment I entered this business in the late 90’s, I’ve been met with rolling market catastrophes, on a regular and continuous basis. For the love of God, shortly after I got on my own, after a period of vagrant cold calling, the market halted for trade, shut the fuck down, and went straight down the toilet. Out of the class of 100 or so young men who entered the training program at the firm I was employed at, only a handful of us are still in the business.

This is a business, for better or for worse, of attrition. It wears you down until you have nothing left. Only then, when you are faced with a decision and a path, will you learn if this business is for you. I’ve been faced with this reality numerous times over the past 17 years and have always chose to bear down and make it work. Only through ox-headed perseverance will you succeed at being a trader, money manager, operator of coin, in this god forsaken avenue of employment.

Historically oil has traded anywhere between $10-$40 per barrel, with $40 being crisis levels. A quick fact for you ham and eggers out there: a gas guzzling truck, parked and turned off, is worse for the environment than a modern day vehicle going 60MPH on the highway. This just goes to show you how utterly stupid we were twenty years ago. Modern day engineers are advancing civilization faster than anyone ever dreamt of in the past, even Orwell.

So now we have the conundrum of lower oil prices, what to do with them, and the ramifications. A little side note for you: Texas homebuilding is in the gutters now, expected to decline by 20% in 2015, as all of those homos in big hats enter receivership. Let’s not forget that 18% of all junk bonds are energy related. There is going fire and brimstone inside of the fixed equity portfolios, sometime during 2015. Now the question is, where the fuck is oil going?

Some Iranian asshat suggested that oil could trade down to $25, without OPEC stepping in to save the day (extra Tom Greene). If he would’ve said that three months ago, you’d probably laugh at him and chalk him up to being a palaver. But now with oil in the $40’s, we are paying attention, aren’t we?

My worst case scenario for oil is pre-Iraq war levels. On the day the war started oil was trading at $28 per barrel. Now that peace reigns throughout the middled east and the charitable organization ISIS is at the helm, one should surmise that the “normalized” level for oil to be $25-$30 barrel.

Why the fuck not?

When that happens, General Vladimir Putin will fire nuclear missiles at the oil derricks in Saudi Arabia and Iran will simply melt away, like a snowman in July. Venezuelans will starve on an industrial scale and the American consumer will gain a collective 5 million pounds, from all of the additional fast food they will be ingesting, thanks to the cost savings.

We’ve been in a meat-grinder since November. Nothing has worked, aside from gold, airlines and biotech. However, it’s worth noting that my recent foray into micro-cap biotech has resulted in apocalypse: NDRM. Some people inside of The PPT proposed the idea that I’ve offended some black-hearted billionaire and that I should offer “general apologies” in order to receive mercy. Well, I will have you know, “The Fly” apologizes to no one, and will gnaw off said billionaire boot, drag his torso into my parlour and toss his limp body into my fireplace. After that, the kids will gather ’round and stare into the hot flames, as Father Fly tells tales of victory and redemption, of the biblical nature.

Chop, chop, chop.

This pretty much sums up today’s trade.

This market will ruin you if you’re not careful.

If you want to bank coin in this tape, there are 3 principle drivers to it.

1. Precious metals. After 80% down, this stupid sector is having its face in the sun.

2. Airlines. With oil getting its face punched off, the airlines are the no brainer winners in all of this dreck.

3. Bonds/REITs. We get it. The world is fucked and people are throwing their money at bonds, despite many of them having NEGATIVE interest rates.

Seriously, have any of you sat down and really thought about this? How can this be happening while markets are near new highs? It-makes-no-fucking-sense.

Other areas of interest are grocery stores and gas station plays. But I am sure people will get bored of them before long. This is the absolute worst bull market I’ve ever traded and the most difficult. It’s like a deranged game of whack-a-mole, and we are the moles.

Ahead of the State of the Union address tonight, I revel in the cat calls from the right–eagerly declaring Obama a ‘COMMUNIST PIG’. The latter part is a little editorial flare that I added in for your reading pleasure. Enjoy it with my compliments. Coming off what can easily be declared the worst presidential term since Millard Fillmore, George Bush is widely revered as a visionary now-a-days, by crossed eyed republicans clad in Teutonic Knight battle armor.

I have nothing but pure indifference for the office of the President. They are nothing more, or less, than two bit cowards in cheap regalia. However, can we stop with the fucking “Obama is gonna steal our guns and butter, then declare PRIMA NOCTA on our wives” already? I spit on you people, pigmies reading my grande website from rent controlled apartments.

Listen to me: the man presided over the single best economic recovery in the history of the United Steaks; and he did it while winding down war. Moreover, the Dow Jones Industrial average is up 10-fucking-thousand points. Okay? Shut the fuck up until there is eery silence.

In other news, futures are higher this morning, giving the bears another shot at torturing the bulls with another fade. God save my sheet rock if that happens today. I don’t think my temperament can handle another cruel reversal of fortune.

I’ve just escaped the confines of a bowling alley in the middle of nowhere, filled with morbidly obese people. I see Chinese GDP came in a little hotter than expected and futures have reversed higher, pointing to a relatively optimistic opening. But I want to talk about something important tonight.

Reflecting upon 2014, seeing how poorly I underperformed the S&P and my early cursed misfortunes of 2015 (giving up an early 6.5% gain), it has crossed my mind– on more than one occasion– that “The Fly” has passed his prime. His best days are seemingly behind him, and like an aging baseball player, it is time for him to step aside and permit younger, fresher, eyes a chance at unbridled internet greatness.

Clearly there is a burn out aspect to this business. Without a doubt, I was sharper, quicker, and bolder a few years ago. Another reason could be the QE-induced nature of this market, which permits one to simply sit back and eat yams all day, while the Fed does the heavy lifting. All declines were met with barbaric buying responses and short sellers, seemingly, tossed into open tar pits filled with fire and BBQ’d.

Maybe hubris played a role, coming off my best year in over a decade (+80%)?

But then I got to thinking and remembered that people in my field are filled with elderly booze hounds, still making moves well into their 80’s. In general, the younger you are the more ignorant, and reckless, an advantage to no one but banana peeling apes. And QE hasn’t ended; but has simply begun a new era on the homosexual continent of Europe.

So what of the losses?

In an age of revolution, one must adapt to change, else find oneself at the bottom of a flaming tar pit being prepared for supper.

HERETO: “The Fly” is timeless, like a 17th century bottle of Bordeaux. If classified as dignified, he’d defecate on all of you and kick your heads off your shoulders. Luckily for you, I am a creature of custom and honor, which saves you from such a fate. I can never fade, nor be faded. There will be periods of drought, times of duress, and glimpses of panic. But, in the end, if you’ve learned anything at all from the years visiting and reading the literature posted on iBankCoin, it is this:

“The Fly” wins all the time, you fucking faggots. Bet against me and lose your castles, moats and calashes. Two thousand and fifteen will be one of redemption, one where extreme pain and agony is thrusted upon my enemies, leaving their legacies and bullshit checking accounts in tatters–for generations to come.

The median return for gold stocks in 2015 is +16.8%. Many are up more than 30%, very few are down. Silver stocks, as you would imagine, are up similarly. After that, marijuana stocks are higher by 11% and then, finally, REITs are up around 8%. Nothing else is up 5%, as a sector, not even biotechs.

These are degenerate, homeless man, winners.

In short, if you’ve managed to make coin this year, you’re either a bear shitting gold bug or chaser for yield, also a whore of another varietal. None of the risk sectors are working; and if you’re into making money off momo stocks, you’re gonna have to be quick. Bounces are being sold within a day or two and bonds are relentlessly trading higher.

Much of this is due to currencies. I’d like to chalk up the melt up in TLT to dollar strength, but that doesn’t explain it all. If that was the case, european bonds would’ve been trading down with their currency. That simply isn’t the case. Can it be oil producing nations finding safety in western bonds? Perhaps. I can’t imagine many Russian oligarchs wanting to keep their money in rubles these days.

Whatever the reason is, the perception is that something is wrong and that is hurting sentiment.

Either TLT drops $15 from current prices or the Dow falls 1,500 points. This deflationary scare cannot continue for too much longer, without it finally grabbing hold of equities, which is the proverbial ‘last man standing.’

Also, heading into the big ECB meeting this week, I am on edge due to expectations versus potential outcome. The europeans have a way to fuck things up and right now everyone is relying upon them to do something bold.

The last time europe did something bold is when Germany invaded Poland.

The corrective forces of the market have been defeated. Rejoice as we enter an era of unparalleled hedonism, through industrious productivity and innovation. All of the problems of yesterday are seemingly in the past (duh). As you can see by today’s tape, our fears, our human emotions, tricked us again.

At this very moment in time, Bluestar is receiving penance and forgiveness for his great many atrocities. His unbridled savagery will be washed away, with the oils of our savior and the blood of christ.

Amen.

Have a good weekend and try to avoid telling lies, stealing and definitely murdering your neighbors.