INFLATION DEFEATED: CPI PRINT COMES IN LIGHT; FUTURES EXPLODE

Look at the success.

US CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 8.5% (est 8.7%; prev 9.1)
– US CPI (M/M) Jul: 0.0% (est 0.2%; prev 1.3)
– US CPI Core (M/M) Jul: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.7)
– US CPI Core (Y/Y) Jul: 5.9% (est 6.1%; prev 5.9)

As a result of this lower than expected CPI print, futures have predictably exploded.

NASDAQ +340

COPPER +1.6%

EUR/USD +1.2%

SHITCOINS BID HIGHER

US 10 YR -11BPS to 2.68%

What these moves are suggesting is a cessation of Fed hikes because inflation, for all intents and purposes, has been defeated. The most dedicated and mindless bulls will point to these numbers as evidence that markets deserve to go back to all time highs, which means all of your favorite stocks have another 30% higher from here. These are not the opinions of The Fly, but instead the scattered brained logic of those who dominate the country.

Nothing would surprise me and nothing should surprise you. If the cattle want to run in a certain direction, there is very little you can do to stop them as they stampede towards their panicked direction.

Inflation dropped to 8.5% in July (down from 9.1% in June).

Big declines in gas prices (-7.7% in July) and airfares (-7.8% in July) helped a lot.

But…grocery prices, rent and electricity continue to rise pic.twitter.com/sVO5dr6eco

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) August 10, 2022

Used car prices pic.twitter.com/EKzr9A36MJ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 10, 2022

… is a day wasted.

The NASDAQ jumped 50 off the lows and closed ambiguous. Bulls bought the dip for the “big run” and bears shorted the hole because of everything else.

I am net long, 30% cash, 10% hedged via TZA. I gained 35bps for the session and didn’t trade much because I am waiting for a better tape.

To trade in an environment that switches back and forth between reflation and end of world is difficult. We have CPI data coming out tomorrow and I cannot remember the last time any economic data, bad or good, resulted in down stocks.

If the data is hot and stocks collapse the open: buy the dip.

If the data is cool, this means the Fed is winning: buy into the rally.

Either way, it’s rigged to go higher tomorrow.

The $SPY is down 6 of the last 7 sessions. Small losses, but down nonetheless.

The “back to highs” narrative is doomed to fail. Stop thinking about it.

The market was gifted with an earnings warning out of Micron today — on the same day President Biden signed “The Chips Act” — which is corporate welfare and grift to Taiwan.

Set your retarded emotions aside and have a look at the fucking MU chart.

Do you mean to tell me that’s a bullish chart?

It’s over fuckers. The summer rally has ended and in replace of it is nothing but darkness.

The temptation to long commodities is ever present. However, I am not being fooled by that either. If recession, oil will circle down the drain and never come back. I know all leading economists have all of a sudden changed the definition of recession — but did you know the 2-10yr bond inversion is nearly 50bps now — the widest chasm since 2000?

Do you know what else happened in 2000? The biggest fucking market calamity of all time, peak to trough 75% down in the NASDAQ — me at 24 new to the business wanting to blow my brains out. Yet here I am 22 years later warning you about it.

No matter what happens this morning, I will not be fooled. We might rally off the lows or mcplunge back towards the depths of hell. Either way, I’m not falling for it.

My small portfolio of nonsense netted me +32bps and so I moved it directly to cash. If you’re following me inside Stocklabs, just know, I regularly move to cash each and every morning, so this is nothing new. I do this because, well, I won’t be fooled.

There is an incredible amount of things to worry about, starting with China invading Taiwan. Perhaps Biden will support the entire Taiwanese administration and military too, once China invades. America can spend $1 trillion per annum on both wars — because nothing says democracy better than writing blank checks to government officials and Lockheed Martin.

I‘m bearish and don’t give a flying fuck what the market has been doing. Ultimately, it’s gonna go down. If so, why cover my shorts? Well, I’m not an idiot and can plainly see stocks are being bid every fucking day. I’m simply waiting for a better market to sell down and press my rights.

After I sold my stocks this morning, I went to build a 5 tier garage storage rack in a flaccid attempt to store some of the fucking boxes in my fucking garage. I toiled through 110 degree heat and then stacked the boxes onto the newly built storage rack and there’s barely any difference. Out of all of the things to do in the world, this is the very worst thing I could be doing.  Bearing witness to a lifetime of waste in boxes, all bought by members of my family and none by me, leaves with me a distinct feeling of emptiness. Time wasted and money spent.

Next up, I will buy another 5 tier garage storage rack and toss another 1,000 lbs of boxes onto it so that maybe just maybe I could move around freely in the GAY-RAAAAGE, gallivanting through all of the bicycles and helmets and toys and baby clothes and collectibles and DVDs and VHS tapes and a plethora of pillows and ARTS N CRAFTS and perhaps glance over at some fucking tools and some gardening chemicals and maybe eyeball a FUCKING INDUSTRIAL SIZED paper shredder and sleds and Xmas decorations and Halloween decorations and Thanksgiving decorations and random chairs, tables, bookshelves and EXTRA washer and dryer and all of the other lovely things I surround myself with, as I live out a lavished world of comfort and charm.

As it pertains to the stock exchange, I made 2% with 60% cash, 10% hedged — long 6 stocks of the indecorous nature.

It’s a rhetorical question. I don’t really give a shit what any of you think. Below are the very prescient mean reversion algorithms. You can see the ranges in 2022 and how every time without fail — the OB’s dissipate into dust and transmorph into OS’s because the market truly does suck and we are in a bear market.

That being said, the price action is constructive and I’ve been cursed by the Gods. I sold all of my stocks this morning for a gain of 1.2% and didn’t dare step back into the tape in any way shape, form, or matter. I walked away and now blog about doom and gloom — but have no skin in the game other than my Quant which is +70bps.

If you held a gun to my head and forced me to give financial advice at the threat of violence, I’d tell you “the fucking market is gonna crash. Tell all of your friends and family to get out now while they still can.”

NEVERTHELESS, it might not happen today and it might not even happen in August. These things are really hard to time. For now, I will be trading very small at no more than 30% invested, hoping to hit a few singles and cast off this fucking curse upon my person.

A few years ago at the onset of COVID I gave up drinking in order to have a healthier life. I boasted about it here on the blog about how quitting made me feeeeeel better and how clear minded I was as a result and a long laundry list of “benefits” that had escaped me all these years. In hindsight, quitting drinking was overrated.

I once chanced upon a documentary that discussed the horrible things humans ingest and as a result — I went on a year long forlorn journey into dairy free, vegetarian, and even gluten free diet. With the benefit of hindsight, that was an idiotic diet.

Long ago I quit drinking coffee in favor of tea. I felt coffee was the preferred beverage for vagrants everywhere and bought myself a nice fancy tea set and had tea parties like a dandy. Looking back on that, I know now I was an moron.

We are whispers in the wind, being carried to and fro — leaving nothing but memories behind. The never-ending plight to extend this gift is what causes people to buy tonics from Victorian Era salesmen, or inject ourselves with vaccines for really scary viruses. We don masks and “clean” our hands with gelatin alcohol substances that creep into our bloodstreams and wreak havoc on our organs, all because of wanting more. We wear wigs and change our teeth and inject substances into our faces and receive knives to the face by experts who make us look younger, because sex.

“Here lies Fucked For face, died healthy as fuck, a vegan and gluten free — hadn’t consumed a glass of milk since 2010 — bereft of tasty alcoholic beverages since 2015 — looked incredibly young and vibrant — dead dead dead.”

Micro-caps, crypto miners, biotechs, SAAS, EV, Alt Energy and cannabis led the way higher the past week, renewing the rotation out of commodities and into risk — based upon the notion that the economy is both slowing and strong at the same time.

Do not attempt to make sense of it and try not to get hung up on the finer details. Most of the time the market is swashbuckling through narratives until it ultimately settles on one.

One should assume the #SummerofSAAS will continue and spirits to remain high up until the beginning of Autumn, which will coincide with both the carving out of pumpkins and portfolios alike.

As for me, aside from being wrong about stocks, I have kept busy attempting to unpack the 500 boxes I have stored in the garage, in between trips to the garbage dump and charity center. Also, since moving into the country club I haven’t played any golf or tennis and have barely gone to the gym. When I lived 10 miles away, I went all the time. Now that I live across the street from it — I don’t go.

I have been in a constant state of exhaustion and did I mention my lawn, which is managed by the retarded people at the HOA, has barely any grass but all weeds. The landscaper dropped by yesterday and conceded I had the very worst lawn in the entire development and that made me feel extraordinary.

I’m having some shelving built for a library room and the millwork guy stops by once per week, but is 1 month late on delivery and I don‘t think he’ll be done before summer ends.

So I sit in a room surrounded by boxes and books stacked 10 feet high, exhausted and annoyed, wondering why my investment ideas aren’t working out.

The stock Gods laugh at me, while they beset CLOWNISH losses upon my person. I will remind you that I had XIV at $100 and watched in horror as it dove to $3 in the after-hours, only to be told by James Cramer that I was an idiot for not reading the prospectus.

Last week I played the monkeypox like a champion pro, in and out — to and fro — until the VRAX literally castrated me amidst 15 trading halts in an eye-bending 80% single day decline. I sold it earlier this week ONLY for a 45% loss.

The Devil called me up and offered me a stock tip, which I lost 20% in a matter of hours.

And today I was sitting fat at 15% weighted LABD, enjoying the scenery — sipppppping on some chardonnay whilst painting a pretty picture when The Pfizer Corporation decided it’d be best to announce a fucking takeover of GBT at a 50% premium causing a tidal wave of shit to wipe me and my chardonnay the fuck out — sending me down the river with losses largess.

I closed the day DOWN 3% in one of the most obscene and humiliating sessions I’ve had in centuries.

My trading is on display for all of the very lucky and fortunate members of Stocklabs — who subscribe to my service so that they too could be cursed by the stock Gods via proxy. They signed up with good intentions, hoping the illustrious Fly would extricate them from their housing tenements, provide them with enough money to finally get Tiny Tim that leg amputation, only to behold a most horrendous visage in the mirror they gazed into. I can only tell the fine folks of the top hatted nature inside the Pelican Room that I now seek revenge — and have taken it upon myself to withdraw blood from the markets alongside all of the money which has been stolen from me.

I feel enraged and aware of my curse and understand what needs to be done.

“The Fly” is in full crisis mode now — DOWN 10% from the highs — bedraggled by various afflictions and amplified by the many enemies that I keep who gleefully and gayfully find comfort in my disquieted anguish. I promise you this — I shall emerge from this an evil person; but my revenge will be graceful and eloquent. Say goodbye to Mr. Nice Guy and hello to one of my various other alternative personalities, perhaps HORATIO CLAWHAMMER — as I disorder myself back to order.