18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,598 Blog Posts


Look at the success.

US CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 8.5% (est 8.7%; prev 9.1)
– US CPI (M/M) Jul: 0.0% (est 0.2%; prev 1.3)
– US CPI Core (M/M) Jul: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.7)
– US CPI Core (Y/Y) Jul: 5.9% (est 6.1%; prev 5.9)

As a result of this lower than expected CPI print, futures have predictably exploded.


COPPER +1.6%

EUR/USD +1.2%


US 10 YR -11BPS to 2.68%

What these moves are suggesting is a cessation of Fed hikes because inflation, for all intents and purposes, has been defeated. The most dedicated and mindless bulls will point to these numbers as evidence that markets deserve to go back to all time highs, which means all of your favorite stocks have another 30% higher from here. These are not the opinions of The Fly, but instead the scattered brained logic of those who dominate the country.

Nothing would surprise me and nothing should surprise you. If the cattle want to run in a certain direction, there is very little you can do to stop them as they stampede towards their panicked direction.

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  1. Mr. Cain Thaler

    I’ll hold cash with a hedge here.

    Core CPI rose and that’s on top of wage growth. Plus credit conditions have actually eased. This is what Powell is going to be focused on.

    The top line CPI number is all good and well but oil is down a ton from the peak and all it’s bought us is a flat print. Going into fall if energy prices start soaring (SPR releases stop, war abroad, etc) we go over 10%.

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  2. flea

    The thing that gets me is that all the punters firmly believe that once inflation is tamed rates will return to normal WHICH THEY THINK IS 0%.

    ZIRP is wrong always but has been used recently because of ‘highly exceptional’ financial conditions. Well, if EVERY time is ‘exceptional’ then NO time is ‘exceptional’.

    If the world can’t survive without free money, then the world isn’t going to survive very long at all.

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