C2 does a great job managing the Stocklabs Youtube channel. He doesn’t shill the product non-stop but instead does some pretty kick ass reviews of the market. However, in this video, we are shilling like a motherfucker; but for good reason.
The fact of the matter is, not only is my Algo and trading accounts crushing, but so is my automated quant strategy, which is updated once per month and left alone. The strategy is up greater than 20% for the year so far, mostly passive, only managed on the first of each month.
I trade this account live inside Stocklabs, committed to it 2 years ago with starting capital of $100k. I cannot teach you a god damned thing because markets are dynamic and today’s rules aren’t tomorrows. What I can tell you for sure is that my success is directly correlated to the person I was born to be.
See pal, you can live to 500 years old and still not trade as good as me. The idea that you could, for example, match what I do on a long term horizon is fallacy. Lucky for you, I am an idiot and quit money management in 2017 in order to dedicate my life to trading with jackasses inside Stocklabs for a fraction of the money I used to make. Do not feel melancholy for me, as I somehow find ways to eek out a living — selling mugs here, perhaps a book or two there.
As for the tape, dreadfully optimistic! It seems anything can happen, so I opted for a blend of longs and shorts, nothing too aggressive — as I am pre-dispositioned to believe the market will fall and fall again, once people start to stop believing in all of the bullshit of recovery and summer rallies.
We are fucked for at least 2 years. The fantasies of V shaped recoveries are juvenile dreams on par with pornographic woolgatherings. Markets feinted higher and have since collapsed — presently and without brakes STEAMING lower into the close, now down 78 NASDAQS.
Whilst not entirely terrible, the key component of the market angst is lack of places to hide. It seems the commodity sector has been co-opted by the recessionistas and have made that sector part and parcel of the bet against the west, as they continue to spiral lower into recession self inflicted by the sanctions placed against themselves in an effort to protect their vassal state Ukraine.
I have remained in cash the entire day because I am a professional. I am not fooled or tricked easily, like so many of you. I do not view the market as a place to loiter, but instead strike fast and hard with pistols drawn.
Into the bell, I will position into risk averse names with a hedge, but also lots of cash.
Below is the hourly seasonality data for SPY for the month of May. As you can see, you’d be wasting your fucking time trying to catch intra day moves on any macro scale.
Last week the NASDAQ went up 7%, so it was green all the time. Even during those favorable conditions, the market proved to be LACKLUSTER after 11am and it only made sense to play the afternoons.
In conclusion, it makes an extraordinary amount of sense to sell everything you have in the morning before 10am, hedges and all, and then reload in the afternoon. You can start after lunch and doubled up into the close or bulk up on your shorts. Whatever the case might be, I find myself having an EASY time trading this tape in this manner. Last year I’d punch out 90 trades per day, rendering myself insane. Nowadays, I am executing between 15 and 30 trades per day and producing just as good, if not better, results — presently up 45% for 2022.
I was fortunate to have some winners this morning, all 10% positions with exception to SQQQ at 25%. My allocations have been bigger and bolder, mainly due to the success I’ve had this year with some leeway to lose. I sold everything at the open, higher by 178bps for the session, and have no temptation to chase hot oils or buy cold tech dips.
This being the last trading day of May, I’d like to go out without a drawdown — higher by more than 15% for the month.
Futures are soft and commodities strong. We are coming off from a very strong week whereby the NASDAQ leapt higher by 7%, featuring all sorts of wonderful wonders take place. The backdrop of the rally of course was grim, as the Dow had previously plunged 8 weeks in a row — the longest losing streak in the Dow since 1923. But don’t let that get you down lads; China is reopening and Italy just removed their COVID restrictions.
In other others, the Fed begins to sell down their balance sheet tomorrow.
How big is said sheet? About $9 trillion, all monopoly money.
For Treasury securities, the cap will initially be set at $30 billion per month and after three months will increase to $60 billion per month. The decline in holdings of Treasury securities under this monthly cap will include Treasury coupon securities and, to the extent that coupon maturities are less than the monthly cap, Treasury bills.
For agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, the cap will initially be set at $17.5 billion per month and after three months will increase to $35 billion per month.
Over time, the Committee intends to maintain securities holdings in amounts needed to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively in its ample reserves regime.
To ensure a smooth transition, the Committee intends to slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet when reserve balances are somewhat above the level it judges to be consistent with ample reserves.
Once balance sheet runoff has ceased, reserve balances will likely continue to decline for a time, reflecting growth in other Federal Reserve liabilities, until the Committee judges that reserve balances are at an ample level.
Thereafter, the Committee will manage securities holdings as needed to maintain ample reserves over time.
Based upon the Fed’s plans, the balance sheet will take a lifetime to drawdown, aka never going to happen.
US 10yr is +10bps, which is probably some front running ahead of tomorrow’s excursion into the unknown. How long can the Fed run down it’s balance sheet without the market bitching about it? We’re about to find out.
The EU announced a ban of Russian oil consisting of 2/3rds of imports with a goal of 90% by the end of 2022. Couple that with the gas issues they’re having, resistant of paying up in Rubles, the entire continent of Europe places themselves in the unenviable position of having to freeze the coming winter, or at a minimum endure the pangs of shortages and a sharp reduction of economic activity. This is scorched earth now. The west is afflicting its citizenry with the harshest of all penalties in order to attempt to win in the Ukraine, a war which appears to be almost conclusively one sided in favor of Russia.
Brent crude is bidding near $122 now and futures are soft.
On the issue of Ukraine, EU’s Borrell commented on how Europe might do in a war against Russia.
EU BORRELL: “Look, the European armies couldn’t maintain a war like the one in Ukraine for more than two weeks. They’ll run out of ammunition.”
In conclusion: The United States has deemed Ukraine of utmost national importance and has subsequently ordered Europe to go along for the ride, in an attempt to destroy the Russian state. To do this, instead of outright war with Russia, we intend to send wonder weapons into Ukraine so that the Ukrainian men could fight and die for our position there. We have taken over full control of Ukraine’s finances and military needs and will not negotiate with Russia for a diplomatic end.
The financial ramifications have been minimal for Russia, but severe for the west as rampant inflation and supply chain shortages wreak havoc.
About half of the country is in favor of war with Russia for Ukraine — because they have been told fighting for democracy is oh so important. A similar tale was told before the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars.
UPDATE: Last night I had a bottle of wine and perhaps my vision was blurred this morning when I read about Biden’s plans for long range missiles. He announced the US would NOT provide Ukraine with weapons that could strike DEEP into Russia. Pardon my gambit at fake news.
This of course didn’t stop the form Ambassador to Russia from war mongering.
Ukraine needs Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) & High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to stop the Russian army's advance in Ukraine. This decision is a mistake: Biden Rules Out Sending Ukraine Long-Range Rocket Systems That Can Reach Russia https://t.co/zGluGll33p
There’s a working theory out there that the government is all knowing omnipresent, with well thought out diabolical schemes to bring all sorts of pain and suffering to the world, rooted in satanism and sacrifice — all for the end goal of world domination. I have long dismissed this absurd theory based on the empirical evidence that the people governing us are incompetent idiots, who are now in the last throes of squandering what they’ve been given — compromised by drugs, sex, and power. These creatures are nothing more than insects — invading homes and families like the pests they are. We are seeing their grande incompetence on the world stage now — via this weak attempt at stopping Russia from winning in Ukraine.
The update goes as follows:
Russia originally went for a wild eyed gambit in an attempt to end the war early and misjudged the fighting ability and will to fight by the Ukrainian army. This was viewed in mocking tones by “the west”, who felt embolden by this and as a result directly intervened in the war via sanctions on Russia and the kitchen sink in weapons supplies to Ukraine. Since then the Russian army, under new command, regrouped and started a more traditional method to wearing down and destroying the Ukrainian army, via artillery, missiles strikes, and air assets. Since then the Russian army has not been mocked as much on Twitter, as nearly all news reports have pointed to their success in the Donbas.
The sanctions the west inflicted on Russia have failed, as evidenced by Russia’s currency, stock market, and trade surplus. Putin just increased pensions by 10%. A failing economy doesn’t give his entire country a pay raise.
So now in the face of all these failures, the west, led by Biden, is doubling down. Today Biden boasted about sending missile systems to Ukraine that can strike deep into Russian territory.
This was the response from Russia.
MEDVEDEV: Otherwise, during the attack on our cities, the Russian Armed Forces would fulfill their threat and strike at the centers for making such criminal decisions.” Some of them are not in Kiev at all. There is no need to explain what would happen after that.”
Biden: “We’re not gonna send to Ukraine rocket systems that can strike into Russia.”
This is where we are now — countries like Germany sending 15 tanks to Ukraine, Biden wanting to provoke Russia into attacking a NATO country so he could play FDR, and all of it reeks of wanton incompetence.
Let it come as no surprise to any of you out there that the best of stocks are wholly in the commodities sector of the market — the place where Vladimir Putin twists his Russian knife most severely. Using the Stocklabs ranking system, I intend to provide you all with the top rated stocks over the past month with volume over 300,000 per day and then the one’s little known to the outside world, the orphan stocks who trade less than 300,000 per day. No need to thank me for this gift, as I am a patriot.
As you can see it’s littered with downstream (refiners) and natural gas names, mostly due to the fact that we are being RAPED at both the pump and inside or our water heaters. I apologize for using such a violent word to describe my stock screener.
And here are the orphan stocks, the one’s no one wants to adopt because of fears they’ll steal all of the china at night.
My generosity is without boundaries.
On a non-stock related note, I watched the new season of Stranger Things with my family with weekend and was not surprised to learn how stupid the writers have become since taking their COVID-19 vaccination. The plot was utterly retarded and I wanted to throw my television out of the window, but refrained because I still need to pretend I am a normal person in front of my children. This is just another example of how movies and shows have denigrated since the COVID-19 vaccinations, mostly due to blood clots inside of their fucking brains.
I did not see the new Top Gun yet, but will do so soon. I fully expect to see Maverick shot down and KILLED by a transgender Canadian pilot with rainbow stickers festooned all over his/her F-35.
We had a very good week for stocks and in between all of the celebration were several earnings shortfalls that resulted in heinous drawdowns, most specifically in consumer related and technology names.
At the same time, the general market rose, but with it commodity stocks. As a point in fact, they rose almost as much as the deeply oversold tech stocks, sans all of the associated risks involved with buying growth companies into a weakening economy.
At this point, the only thing that could upset the apple cart is piece in the Ukraine, which isn’t going to happen. As a matter of fact, things are about to escalate in a terrible way soon.
