WESTERN DISASTER: JP MORGAN PREDICTS $380 WTI IN WORST CASE RUSSIAN SCENARIO, RUSSIA MOVES TO CUT JAPAN OFF FROM LNG

Last week the imbeciles at the EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia — banning the importation of Russian gold. This will do absolutely nothing to Russia. And it should be noted, Russian oil exports have SPIKED since the war began.

RUSSIAN EXPORTS BEFORE AND AFTER WAR pic.twitter.com/0pabBjqr9w

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 3, 2022

In the midst of all this, the fucking weirdos from Australia took the time to warn us about how climate change would cause VIOLENCE against women —- or people who IDENTIFY as women.

WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENED TO THE WEST?
pic.twitter.com/u3RmEsevRp

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 3, 2022

Listen to me.

We are led by morons. I know statements like that usually drip with Dunning Krueger and I am not saying they are academically dumb people. What I am suggesting is these people, ALL OF THEM, are in fucking fantasy land — like spoiled rotten brats who’ve been entitled to have their way for so long they lost contact with the real world. These are not serious people and I don’t give a fuck what futures are doing tonight or what the market does tomorrow — I cannot bet long on this sort of leadership.

Late last week Russia moved to seize control of the Sakahelin-2 project. What’s that you ask? Nothing really — just a joint project between Russia, Japan and Shell —- adding up to 10% of Japan’s total LNG imports and 4% of the global supply of LNG.

You can see why these people want to Balkanize and destroy Russia now, can’t you? It’s a fucking goldmine and their control over natural resources leaves the west in an unbearable position —- all because NEOCON SCUM needed to have their filthy hands in the Ukraine.

What exactly do we get out of this fruitful relationship with the Ukraine, aside from Trump getting impeached and Hunter Biden getting $80,000 per month in bribe money?

HOW ABOUT THIS FUCKED FACES?

At this point the answer to one Russian victory after the next is $1b per week in funding without oversight to the Ukrainian government, in what appears to be bribes to keep them from fleeing. This policy is as inane as it is evil, purposely dragging out a war that is UNWINNABLE. No matter how many wonder weapons we send to Ukraine, the geography of the battlefield will always favor Russia. Logistics win wars, not wonder weapons.

The logical thing to do from day 1 and even before the war started is to come to terms with Russia. But that wasn’t what the neocon scum wanted —- instead favoring 100 year old blood feud and grandiose designs to turn Kiev into their new play toy. The whole ordeal wreaks of desperation and delusion, typical behavior of people who are mentally disabled.

I’d like to think the COVID-19 vaccines caused this cranial dysfunction malady and this is the reason why the idiots in charge keep doubling down on poor bets. But sadly, it’s a lot more perverse than most understand and the stakes cannot be higher. As the entire western world ebbs into a volcanic pit of boiling magma —- we are most astutely concerned with the well being and happiness of TRANSVESTITES — especially for children who are readying to make the plunge into self mutilation and drugs because nothing says AMERICAN APPLE PIE like Johnny cutting his dick off on his 16th birthday and having giant floppy tits surgically implanted onto his scrawny body all in the name of progress.

With all that is happening, it would be easy for me to shit on the 4th of July today — seeing just about all decisions made on behalf of the American people run counter to the best interests of the American people. But I’m not going to do that — especially since there’s so many of the Hot Dogs and hamburgers for you to eat today.

Why don’t you wash them down with a nice frosted beer, as you preside over the oversized stainless steel grill, preparing sausages for junior and grilled chicken breast for the wife and daughter?

Perhaps after you’ve eaten enough to feed 10 people — you can sit down and relax. After all, you’ve earned it. Might I suggest a brandy and cigar? It’s always the patriotic thing to do on the 4th of July.

When the day grows longer and the kids become restless, might I suggest you take out some fired crackers and light them up in front of the house? You can hand junior a lighter and your daughter a sparkler and have them partake in the festivities — watching the colors and smelling the gunned powder —- so much smoke but not enough to choke on — just the right amount.

After the show is over, might I suggest some iced cream or Italian ices and an episode or two of the Honeymooners before bed?

Happy 4th to the last generation of Americans who gives a shit.

My wife likes to collect everything and also preserve everything — especially from the kids. We have stored away in an endless array of clear plastic bins clothing from when they were young to their homework assignments to the previous “vision” she had for the house — boxes upon boxes of pillows and curtains and more pillows and more curtains. To me, it’s maddening. I am tempted to call the junk man to just dive into my garage, which is now stacked floor to ceiling with a lifetime’s worth of junk, and just throw it away. If I did so, I don’t think she’d even notice, which is the irony.

I also have an entire store’s worth of art supplies, sowing materials, beads, blank canvases, paint and brushes. The list is endless and there’s barely anything of mine mixed in with the boxes, aside from 1 or two boxes of baseball cards and some tools.

I’ve spoken to colleagues and friends about this and it seems, if I might be so bold, the foraging of nonsense and storing of memories is primarily a female trait —- which of course is a FLAW since when we die our children will simply TOSS all of this shit away — post haste — sans the valuables.

This is why women can’t trade well —- too emotional, fixed on sentimentality —- always trying to get back former glory and unable to move forward with the new reality.

Utilities were up 4.8% last week whilst semis, EV, department stores and online retailers were shattered for 10%+. It capped off an otherwise brutish month of June, one that presided over scores of corpses STACKED HIGH and prepped to be tossed in the fires of summer. The bigger story for June, however, was the absolute disintegration of the commodity sector: oils, copper, metals all down 20%+. In a sense, there’s no place to hide and you ought to be mindful where you place your money. It’s important to note the biotech sector BOUNCED by 2.6% for June and more specifically Gene Editing stocks rose by 11%. I once did some research on biotech during the financial collapse and much to my surprise biotech did BETTER than tech.

In regards to utes and other dividend paying stocks outperforming: this is a result of the treasury yields coming in. As yields come in investors will bounce around asset classes attempting to find yields for income. The safest bet would be TLT or a leveraged approach with TMF.

I will not sugar coat it: the market is doomed to cascade lower into the flames and all those long heavily into the summer climes are to be roasted belly first. But before that happens, I am looking for a rally. It’s hard to keep up, and frankly I do not expect you to understand how I think. I’ve given up on the notion that I could teach anything to anyone when I barely know what I will think tomorrow — since I am so prone to changeability.

We have traded higher for 14 consecutive Julys and although you might want to believe that streak will continue, in order to provide yourselves with a small respite whereby you could extricate yourselves from the market and sigh in relief — there will be no relief and no one is coming to save you.

The NASDAQ lifted by 100, following what appeared to be a ruinous open. I took it upon myself to resolutely BELIEVE in the fiction woven for me by my overlords. I am, in fact, BOOLISH now — but not without hedges. Only complete morons invest without hedges.

Here is my prediction:

We rally for the first week, maybe 2, of July and COLLAPSE sloppily and fatly into an open fireplace and fall into the fires for August. The blubber and the fat will burn bright and hot for all of August, as the Russian wars spills over into neighboring Poland and afflicts itself unto NATO. One negative headline can send this market down 10% in a single session.

HAVING SAID THAT, we are at the PRE COVID highs for the IWM. This is as good a place to defend the market as any. As such, I am bullish.

Even so, I’ll be blowing out first thing Monday morning and repeating my process until it stops working.

I finished the session +89bps.

Let it be know, the Atlanta Fed is always talking extreme shit. They just revised their estimates for Q2 down from -1% to a little over -2%, which would FIRMLY place us into recession. When we get another 2 quarters DOWN, we will be in a Biden led depression.

On that news, I am directionally BULLISH on this tape, with a 15% TZA hedge.

Why?

Because fuck you.

Markets have cascaded back down to the level which was previously RESISTANCE for markets, pre-covid, dating back to 2018.

In short, this line, or around this area, needs to hold — otherwise we swim rapidly downstream and into the abyss. Given how terrible this tape has been, I’m somewhat sanguine about the specter of bouncing at or around these levels. Nonetheless, I will always keep hedges in place due to geopolitical circumstances.

I had a large position in SOXS heading into the MU earnings, which were terrible. As soon as the market opened, I closed out my positions for a net 101bps gain.

Although tempted to dive back in, as the market is always showing something of interest, I will most likely DO NOTHING until later — when the direction is clear and there is LESS TIME to fuck with my mind and the direction of the market seems clear.

What is noteworthy is collapse in the 10yr, now down to 2.86% and rise in crude, higher by 1.8%. Markets have recovered from earlier losses, as is usually the case with morning drops and now we are in the process of luring people in, so that we can drop the hammer on them later.

This is how I closed out the month.

The S&P dropped the most to start a year since 1970, down 21%.

I, on the other hand, ended the session at RECOURD highs.

This is who I am pal — and you’re nothing.

The news out of Micron is grim. Micron is going to miss by $800m, guiding down from $7.6b to $6.8b.

Look, it’s over. Stop believing in the fraud that is Pax Americana.

Over the past month Biotechs have proven to be most resilient amongst battered asset classes. The one respite previous to June was in commodities. The great commodity super cycle was going to ruin us all, until it collapsed too. And now we have a situation whereby people are TRAPPED due to their beliefs in an asset class best reflecting depression.

Admittedly, I did not think it would happen so fast. Alas, but here we are.

With Natty down more than 12% today and oil -2.6% — this sector is getting lit up again.

Copper, Aluminum and oils are all in a bear market now, off by 20% or more. According to the Stocklabs seasonality engine — this is standard stuff. This sector does poorly after May and doesn’t come back until November.

Barring a miraculous rally in stocks, we might soon find ourselves without any venue to park cash other than cash or short stocks. The reduction of commodity prices is GOOD. Over the past month natty is -34%, wheat -21%, nickel -19%, cotton -18%, uranium -16%, copper -14%, timber -13%, corn -13%, and cocoa -7%.

This bodes well for the plebs. But it doesn’t mean the economy is coming back right away and it doesn’t mean stocks can now head higher — since the Fed is likely to continue to raise rates to ensure inflation is dead for sure.