No Way, Not Today

I know many of you are overzealous, anxious to get a piece of this runaway train. But you need to relax and shut the fuck up. The real move will present itself after 3:00. What is important to note is the strength in commodity related names, while commodities are lower.  People are chasing stocks and not looking at the information. It reminds me of two weeks ago when most of you bastards were strapped tight in the FAZmobile heading for concrete walls.

Look, it’s very tempting to buy up some cheap basic material stocks, in the hopes of hitting one out of the park. But it’s important to remember the reason why those stocks suck balls. Coal is being displaced by natural gas, which is plentiful because Aubrey at CHK is a fucking lunatic. And, demand for steel is pretty much non-existent, ever since China stopped building “ghost metropolises.”

When I start buying again, I am getting long tech, in size. They have the best balance sheets and aren’t one debt refinancing away from total oblivion.

Operation Twist is not enough. We might trade lower on this news, possibly until the July Fed meeting. It’s clear the Fed is being corrupted by the hawks, by men who live on farms, totally disconnected from the real world.

Right now , the markets are being operated by rank amateurs. Expect the real move from 3:30 to 4. I see commodities trading down and that tells me reflation is not on the table. I see TLT trading up and that tells me deflation is permeating the psyche of everyone.

I am not buying anything today. I am contemplating throwing some hedges on because this is a disappointment. The only reason why I am not short now is because of the weak constitution of the shorts. See pal, they’ve been weazened in recent weeks. This “bad news” might result in another unbelievable short squeeze. Plus, we still haven’t heard back from the Europeans. Those cuckolds are likely to throw a few trilly at their problems soon.

In short, I am holding firm at 60% long, waiting for something interesting to happen.

I like the market here, only if counterfeit money is allowed to flood the system and jack up asset prices. Without QE, this market isn’t worth buying. Too much risk for too little guaranteed reward.

As you know, I’ve been calling for QE long before all of the dick-suckers on the blogosphere and twitter even knew it was an option. The grande majority of these people are my enemies. Therefore, it shouldn’t surprise you to know they are stupid and behind the 8-ball (no Rick Ross).

As everyone panicked the fuck out of stocks and into the back of a jam sandwich, “The Fly” positioned for both a Chinese rate cut and Federal Reserve QE. At the time, I looked like a madman; but now you see the methods behind my madness, don’t you? Nevertheless, I grow weary of this market, still. Despite recapturing almost all of my lost coin, now up 15% for the year, I do not like to mingle amongst the sheep, who are now long stocks in overwhelmingly gay fashion. Therefore, I am out, now sitting with a 40% cash position; but ready and willing to go “all in”, depending on the circumstances.

Remember TODAY’S FED DECISION IS AT 12:30, NOT 2:15.

There was no crisis in Europe. There was nothing wrong with your bank or your congressman. The only threat to America is Roger Clemens lying to the holy men on the hill. The constitution says “anyone who tells falsehoods to the anointed shall be punished, monetarily, and lose his freedom.” It’s a document and it’s law.

Just sit there and let the homohammers at the TSA fondle your wife’s breasts while cradling your balls. After all, there’s a war on terrorism out there. It’s fucking dangerous as hell out there, all of those mexican muslim motherfuckers crossing the borders, jacking us for our first rate health and schooling services, making us bankrupt (even though that is literally impossible, #POMO).

No matter what, you must support the troops, who are controlled by the anointed, because anything less means you’re a mexian muslim sympathizer. The IRS is watching.

Wait for Ben. #POMO

The PPT nailed TNA last week, when it was flagged OS. I warned you about holding shorts into a dunk-shot trade, one that I dubbed “the easiest, highest probability trade, of my career.” I was looking for “one more big trade” before the summer and I got it. “The Fly” won again; PFFFFFFFFFFFF, what else is new?

I sold out of MTW for a small gain, which is huge, since it was a big fucking loss. I am not greedy at these levels, but fortunate to be intact, at full strength, loooong fucking dick with balls in hand, readying to fuck this market stupid. Having said all of that shit, I’m sitting this bitch out, indefinitely.  I have no interest playing “Fed lotto” after moving higher by 18% in two weeks.

I am up more than 15% for the year and you fuckers got shot in the faces by my howitzer. That’s all that matters.

40% cash and I am– the fuck– out of here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HjziT9Q1Bw

I sold MTW, upping cash levels to 40%.

This market is trading like someone knows something (no mafia). Despite having 30% of my assets in cash and YELP flat, I am still up 1%. Gains in MTW, NXPI and NUAN are making  me very happy. However, everything that I sold yesterday is sharply higher, including CLF, which was a booked loss.

But that’s the business we are in: deal with the punches and never look back when a trade is closed. It’s easy to lament over meaningless shit; but how’s that supposed to make me money?

I am tempted to sell more ahead of the Fed meeting; but my greedy brain isn’t letting me relent on some of my favorite names.  Coincidentally, that same brain isn’t letting me buy more stocks ahead of Fed day. This is a do-nothing session, if you have ample cash reserves, as I do. On one hand, I don’t want to miss out on the panic buying to come, should QE3 become a reality. On the other, I don’t want to be too exposed to the fucking amateurs who will “sell the news” like dodo birds tomorrow. I am fairly certain a 30% cash position is enough to protect my downside.

For now, everything is in place for a stupid melt-up for the ages. Yields are elevated, but coming lower. The euro is cheap, but heading higher. And bonds are expensive, yet coming lower. Should the risk-on trade gain traction, in earnest, this market is going to move 10% higher over the next two months, equating to 20-30% moves up in a number of deeply oversold stocks.

Off to eat a sandwich.

We’ve already won the war.  The recent rally, if positioned correctly, should have made up the majority of your losses and/or made you a great deal of money. We’re now at a point where our own weapons risk blowing up on us, in reference to the Federal Reserve.

Make no mistake, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of QE3 tomorrow. If the market doesn’t get it, the gentle market you see today will turn savagely violent, turning this bullish tone into something a little more brazen, if you know what I mean.

You’ve already won. Do yourselves a favour and reduce risk.

My strategy is very simplistic, almost childlike: I am raising cash ahead of the Fed and will build a “go to” list of stocks to buy if the Fed initiates QE3. I do not mind paying up because QE3 means 20 straight weeks of uninterrupted winship.

Listen to me very quietly: if the Fed doesn’t do QE3, there will be zero reasons to own stocks for months. It will be viewed as a massive disappointment and mistake, leading pundits to prognosticate about the Fed being “behind the curve”,  helping to sour investor sentiment to the point of apathy.

There is no reason to get in front of this train.

I sold out of TDC, CLF, WFR, TNA and BZH, raising my cash levels to 30%. I did this to “lock-in” my victory. The truth is, if I didn’t lock it in and we dove lower after the Fed meeting on Wednesday, I’d have no choice but to eat my face off (no bath salts). I am not bearish on the market, only cautious.

My gains stand at around 14.5%, amidst smoke and rubble. My annual highs were about +20%. I believe a give back of just 5% is entirely acceptable for the “experience” I just endured. Nevertheless, I am still heavily concentrated in YELP, which poses a significant risk to my position should we trade lower. Also, my positions in CPST, NUAN, AVGO, NXPI and MTW are not exactly the conservative type.

On a separate note, I am glad to see AAPL above my basis. I believe it has regained its footing and will goose step to new highs.

As always, “The Fly” won, despite your ridiculous predictions of failure. SHAME ON YOU.

The Gods smile upon me and shit on you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwky6LIL-_I&feature=player_embedded

You fuckers are getting blown the fuck out. In an odd twist of fate, the market has “reverse massage penis chopped” you and now the margin clerk is coming for your remains. That bitch will cover your shorts at 3:00 (wall st time) and mail out the proceeds of your bullshit accounts because it fell below the firm minimum.

You made a bet and lost, again. How many times must you learn this lesson?

You’re in the fucking hurt locker, getting shredded to pieces off bad news.

We’re at the point in this market when bad news is good news and good news cuts your dicks off.

Speaking of dick: how about Anothony Robbins bear call of Facebook 6 days ago? If you are unfamiliar, Robbins once made a series of videos in 2010, warning us all of the economic collapse to come, advising people to pull money out of stocks. Immediately following his stupid video, Ben Bernanke dropped his blunt ashes on Tony’s eyeballs and jacked the market, the fuck, higher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFnCmq5ufeM

Well, 6 days ago, AT THE VERY BOTTOM OF $FB, Tony had this to say.

It was clear to me then that he had no idea how PE multiples worked, so I offered a pointer.

I knew then Facebook would bottom and have been saying so on Twitter. I found no need to buy anymore because I own plenty of YELP and a little ZNGA to boot. My point is not to besmirch Tony for being a retarded gorilla; but to laugh at him with ground shaking ferocity. The idea of a motivational speaker offering me financial advice is even funnier than reading some of your foolhardy comments.

Boom went your portfolio of shorts, in the Great Summer Squeeze of 2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwky6LIL-_I