EAGERLY WAITING FOR CONCLUSION

Old man stocks bucked the trend. I made money in 25% of my portfolio and received clawhammers to my skull in the rest. After last week’s sales, however, I am in a 20% cash position. But it doesn’t matter. Everything is dire, grim and dilapidating before our eyes. The facade, if you will, is being lifted and underneath are grotesque Greek people, eating olives, and yes, feta cheese.

It’s useless to try to guess what the market will do tomorrow or the day after. There is always a news event to save the day: you know it and I know it. Regardless, I have grown weary of this routine. Instead of fighting the meat grinder, frankly, I’m inclined to dive into it, just for the sake of finality.

Nothing is working but old men stocks and that is depressing. All of my big ideas have turned into shitsicles, topped off with a fucked up review from the homo-hammers at Yelp. By the way, this article cannot be exported to Stocktwits for its obscene vulgarities.The tender folks over there have communicated uneasiness about my verbiage and would appreciate to exclude their corporate clients from the ongoings of this house.

The people of iBankCoin are barbaric in that regard, accustomed to using foul language and spitting on homeless people, as well as using the word “bitch” when it is deemed appropriate.

In closing, I welcome the meat grinder and spit on you, regardless of your position in life. I haven’t sold anything; but it’s not necessary, frankly. With 20% cash and another 25% in stocks like KMB, LNCE, PEP, CHD and GIS, there is little reason for me to agitate about the process. I am only interested in the conclusion.

The shit is about to hit the fan.

Greek-German spreads are at new post-bailout highs. Spanish yields are at 6.3% and Italian yields are quickly closing in on 6%. In short, contagion is the theme and everything stems from Greece. Should they leave the euro, estimated losses can be as high as $400 billion, a sum that cannot be absorbed at this time.

Safe haven countries, like the UK, Germany, US, Norway and Austria are beneficiaries, at least in the bond market, to the dislocations in the PIGS. You’d think these bumbling fools in Europe would come to some sort of agreement, in order to save their own asses. But for the moment, they seem to be headed towards calamity.

Bear markets raids can be very unsettling and they always feel like an eternity. When markets fall, on what seems to be “the worst possible scenario,” it’s easy to get shaken out or even coerced to get short. The only problem with getting short into the teeth of a decline is the ever increasing chance that policy makers will intervene to bid markets higher.

This has been a winning bet for more than 4 years now.

Here are the scenarios that we face right now.

Greece exits euro.
Contagion spreads quickly to Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland.
A run on PIGS banks begins, only stemmed by a “bank holiday,” where depositors are forced to keep money in banks.
Markets fall by 20%.

The more likely scenario is this one.

Greece agrees to new terms with Troika.
Yields come in on PIGS, at least temporarily.
Markets respond favorably, sending stocks +10% to new highs.

If you are sick and tired of having to deal with the same fucking problems, join the party. I can tell you from first hand knowledge that well-to-do investors abhor this market and rather invest in Sotheby’s auctions– than fuck around with the opaqueness of stocks–which are subject to the caprices of a few bank and central bank executives. Although stocks offer phenomenal liquidity and potential returns, if done with skill, the allure of Wall Street has been sullied to the point where it’s almost comical to believe long term investors stand a chance. Now more than ever, you have to be nimble and remember that living to fight another day is much better than dying namelessly on a battlefield strewn with the lost hopes and dreams of overzealous speculators.

I don’t like the flavour of this beverage. Take it back, young man, for it contains a bit too much sugar.”
-Fly, 2012

I think it’s fair to say 2011 was a less than stellar year for the majority of traders. When the calendar turned to 2012, everything changed. From Jan to late March, we were roaring with guns blazing. People who got in the way were kicked in the teeth, chastised thricely, and relegated to tar pits where they’d be lit aflame. Since April, the markets have been chiseling away at us, almost in a mocking fashion, dropping momentum stocks into murderholes.

There’s an old saying that applies: stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.

The bad news that plagued us throughout 2011 is back and badder than ever. It borders on the obscene, frankly. On top of that, we have renewed worries in the US banking industry, thanks to JPM and our largest provider of natural gas, CHK, seems to be heading down the path of Enron.

Commodities have been hell, while the dollar and treasuries have been ripping higher. The classic deflationary vortex trade aka “The Hugh Hendry” is stronger than ever. The main question that needs to be answered is this:

Being that we know the Federal Reserve is very much interested in staving off any semblance of deflation, give the recent news and BOND market reaction (fuck stocks), will Chairman Bernanke initiate QE3 (kill the bears for good version) this June?

Now I know some of you will doubt the strength of the Fed’s pimp-hand. I don’t know why. The Bearded Clam has proven, over and over again, that he is willing to fuck poor people for the sake of helping out stock market players. The economy is not ripping and deflation is still the danger, 4 years after the crisis began.

To summarize my point: if Europe is unable to get their shit together by the Fed’s June meeting, QE3 will begin. If, by chance, the homosexuals in Europe figure out a way to deal with Greece and all of the other shit that haunts them, stocks will go up. In other words, no matter what, by the end of June, stocks are going way the fuck higher.

Enjoy the month of May, bears, for it will be remembered as the eve of your most unfortunate demise.

I’ve gone beyond the point of return, as I sit cravenly in a dimly lit room, glum and irritated by everything but the color of my shoes. The market is no longer my friend, but the archest of enemies. I approach it with cantankerous intensity, resolute in the firmness passed down to me from God himself. There isn’t anything that can make me acquiesce to the elements of evil. These demons who infect the stock market shall be exorcized and castrated in the public domain for everyone to bear witness, including children over the ages of 3.

Although I only ended down 0.35% for the session, the conviction of mean-spirited devil-dogs have boiled my eggs beyond reproach.

During this evenings repast, I intend to drink from the bottles of vine, nourishing myself with the nectar of the Gods, in an effort to revitalize my mind, body and soul for the battles ahead.

This message is sent to you with good intentions, but not meant as a form of financial advice– or an attempt to illuminate the shroud that cleverly covers all of those who are trading. I am only interested in bitter revenge, plainly. It will not be enough to recapture lost coin and repute. Someone must lose. In order to continue doing what I do on a daily basis, a sacrifice must be made. The blood of the sinful will sustain the tree of winship for generations to come.

This is far from over. As a matter of fact, we’ve only yet begun.

I don’t know if there is any truth to this rumor, or where it came from, but I am hearing the JPM bet gone awry has nothing to do with Spain or Italy, but with regards to the ig9, which Zerohedge has been talking about for a long time. Essentially, this was not a hedge, but a bet. Plainly, JPM went full retard trying to take in premium and now find themselves on the receiving end of a shit sandwich.

Needless to say, if we are going to comport ourselves in gentlemanly manners, QE3 needs to be provided to the American populous, especially the well-to-do portion of society. I realize some of you blue collared types hate QE because you think it makes gasoline go up. But that’s a bald faced lie. The truth is, the higher the gas the better for states. Did you know your state is banking insane coin off every gallon of gas you purchase? Naturally, they want gas to be expensive, in order to tax the shit out of you.

QE3 will be fantastic, specifically for me, as it will reduce traffic on the road by idling all of the poor fuckers at home, due to onerous “travel expenses.” If you are worried about the specter of a $100 tomato, do not fear, small plebs. The government is liberal with food stamps and will be more than happy to provide sustenance for you and your fat family.

The market is weakening here; but I don’t think we will give it all back. The underpinnings in tech are too strong today. It would take some sort of news item to rattle people out of the chips. As a matter of fact, the chips should be bought on dips, specifically NXPI.

I averaged down in AAPL and started a new position in CHD.

Lo and behold, Costanza trading has gripped Wall Street, sending stocks HIGHER (get the fuck…how can it be?), following what seemed like horrific news out of JPM. Truly, this is one fuck of a meat-grinder. Every one loses and nothing is sanctimonious.

Chips are leading the way, after solid NVDA results. And, let’s not forget, last night INTC said business was great and they didn’t know what the fuck was wrong with CSCO–because business in Europe is going swimmingly.

My favorite chip play is NXPI.

Well, it looks like the crisis is over and we can all get back to throwing fistfuls of cocaine into violently spinning fans again. Or, this might be some sick rouse, designed to lure people back into the trap for proper execution. Either way, I am listening to the album featured below, dressed to the nines, clean shaven and ready for anything.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUnQWAp6mx0

All hope is lost.

JPM just sucked the life out of the market. There is no need to offer flowery writing this morning, no metaphors or analogies. You will have to accept the bad news and move on with your lives. For some of you that means eating sandwiches and hoping this will pass soon. For others, today’s tape is a fine opportunity to go for a spin in the FAZmobile.

I cannot fathom a scenario where banks can do well in the short term. Until we get more clarity on this JPM story, avoid the banks like you would avoid pig fat sushi.

It looks like a -1% day and that’s too bad because European yields are somewhat stable. There was every reason to believe the market was setting up for a reflex rally, after weeks of somber, cocksucking, bullshit. But now it’s all over and death itself is knocking on the front door.

Are you going to open it?

Naturally, I anticipate heinous losses in my accounts today, with exception to WNR. Crack spreads are almost $30 and the refineries are being accumulated by giant hedge funds, whose goal in life is to be greedy and kill people for profit.

Regrettably, Mrs. Fly has plans for me today, which entails accompanying her to some event that borders on the ridiculous and lives in the nonsensical. Nevertheless, I am a generous man, with both time and money. Therefore, it is my duty to shed my owlish wisdom into her life, with the hopes that one day my generosity can save lives or inspire others to build space cannons, designed and purposed for egregious offensive measures.

In short, watch Spanish and Italian yields. It’s my hunch JPM’s fate is tethered to the “credit worthiness” of the club med states. Therefore, and this goes without saying, and I say this with the boldest of stentorian tones: they’re pretty much fucked for another $10 billion plus.

In 6 weeks they lost $2 billion. They will continue to lose money and “this can last for a while.” They concocted synthetic credit instruments and it blew up in their face. From what I understand, this might be isolated to the company. There is no reason to believe this is systemic and the market should not tank on THIS news. However, it can tank for other reasons, such as Greece, Spain, Italy etc.

Futures are down 13 on this news.

Here is a link to the emergency conference call.

or, read WSJ live blogging summary of the call.

UPDATE: Apparently, this position was profitable at one point but got too big and was poorly monitored, reviewed and constructed. It was designed to hedge the company against credit.

UPDATE II: Here is live link to Bloomberg tv coverage of the situation.

UPDATE III: ZH has the background to this story, with some other dire predictions, such as $20 billion in losses.”

UPDATE IV: Was the JPM News leaked? 13,800 JPM 41 puts traded today, an outrageous amount indeed.

You can’t win in this tape, unless you are long PEP and other “wheeled chair” stocks. I don’t really feel bad about selling my old man stocks because EXK, AG and WNR did good today, all in all. But, everything else is a fucking circle jerk.

Go ahead and short Europe, Spain slices your body in half, up 4% for the day. Would you prefer the haven of safety that is The United Steaks of America? Sure, buy some.

YOU GET YOUR DICKS CHOPPED OFF.

Would you prefer to bet against stocks, through the explicit and gluttonous purchases of TZA,TVIX or VXX–LMAOMGROFLCOPTER??!!!

YOU GET YOUR DICKS CHOPPED OFF.

Hey, I got an idea. Why don’t you play the Facebook and buy some Yelp?

Do I need to say it?

I lost 0.65% today because that’s what I do, pal. I am a magician. I take the money and make that shit disappear. POOF!

Now I’ve been very patient with the market and have even started to consult my Voodoo Physician again, who, by the way, is telling me to make human sacrifices, as “it is the only way.” But I need a break here. I will not beg for stocks to go higher, because I am above that and really harbor deep seated resentment towards my occupation.

INSTEAD, I fucking demand stocks trade higher and immediately.

Starting with tonight’s sunset, “The Fly” is back in his 1980’s stretch limo, throwing jumping jacks at people on the outside. I won’t even look out of the windows when I do it too, so it’s russian roulette for you fucking pedestrians. Who knows, maybe I’ll get lucky and hit Jamie Dimon with a pack of lady fingers.

Okay, it all boils down to this: I am buying even more YELP on this dip. I added to the position today and have begun buying options too. I have a bowling ball with STOPPELMAN’S face on it. That nerdy fucker better smash earnings this quarter, else it’s off to the padded room for yours truly again, dressed in the finest sleeveless dinner jacket money can buy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdFvsleXjso