This market is trading like someone knows something (no mafia). Despite having 30% of my assets in cash and YELP flat, I am still up 1%. Gains in MTW, NXPI and NUAN are making me very happy. However, everything that I sold yesterday is sharply higher, including CLF, which was a booked loss.
But that’s the business we are in: deal with the punches and never look back when a trade is closed. It’s easy to lament over meaningless shit; but how’s that supposed to make me money?
I am tempted to sell more ahead of the Fed meeting; but my greedy brain isn’t letting me relent on some of my favorite names. Coincidentally, that same brain isn’t letting me buy more stocks ahead of Fed day. This is a do-nothing session, if you have ample cash reserves, as I do. On one hand, I don’t want to miss out on the panic buying to come, should QE3 become a reality. On the other, I don’t want to be too exposed to the fucking amateurs who will “sell the news” like dodo birds tomorrow. I am fairly certain a 30% cash position is enough to protect my downside.
For now, everything is in place for a stupid melt-up for the ages. Yields are elevated, but coming lower. The euro is cheap, but heading higher. And bonds are expensive, yet coming lower. Should the risk-on trade gain traction, in earnest, this market is going to move 10% higher over the next two months, equating to 20-30% moves up in a number of deeply oversold stocks.
Off to eat a sandwich.
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The Fly is God.
Your church has a problem.
My church is The Church of The Fly. It has no problems, except a few worshipers had to be eighty-sixed for wearing sandals. Proper attire required.
If QE3 is announced who cares if you miss out on the first 5%. The market will elevate for at least the next 3 months.
Front running the possibility of an announcement if you ask me. Riverboat gambling.
yes
Look at the metals semi-tank. Sounds like you’re right, the bigs already know.
Not really. If more liquidity was a sure thing the metals would be soaring.
That’s my point.
Exactly.
Anyone check on the breadth here, or are they jsut pusing a few names to move the indicies?
Yo, Jimmy Deuce, not sure what you said there? Is whoever they is just pissing on a few names?
LOL
meant pushing
and they being they
Oh them. I thought so but wasn’t 100% sure.
YELP is all I want
YELP is all I need
YELP is all we all want
YELP is all we all need
I misspoke earlier….
You, sir, are a tedious cockboy.
Agreed –
FLY – OTST (off the shit troll)
Plunge protection team is getting some turbo.
Or maybe Greece is a day late?
Dear Fly: Congrats on that award. I really really want to buy something here buy I heed your wisdom and wait.
Le Fly,
I made you a picture to remind us all who is really in charge here:
http://i49.tinypic.com/jtkox4.png
My gift to you.
C’mon now, no love for the Merlin/Obama pic???
LMAO
“I don’t want to be too exposed to the fucking amateurs who will “sell the news” like dodo birds tomorrow.”
Love the dodo bird reference.
>amateurs who will “sell the news” like dodo birds tomorrow
If memory serves me ( as I have no data around, other than personal experience as a dodo bird)
Rallies into Fed meetings are the worst time to add longs….
Don’t be a dodo bird..call DirectTV
Fly,
Where do you think markets go if there is no QE announced?
I’m looking for another 10 point drop on TLT; that’s what you told a poster a few weeks ago ($15 drop if I recall and it’s shed about $5.). Therefore, I’m staying long with decent exposure in names I bought on dips: RIG, WPRT, X, SBUX (I saw Jeff Macke sell it in a tweet), MCD, FAST. Still have exposure to GLD and the gold miners.
If Ben decrees QE3, what happens to interest rates?
Banks will pay you (interest) for borrowing their money? That should certainly stimulate the economy.
zzz
Only if you have 800 credit rating and don’t need the money.
Ain’t that the truth!
Not a QE leak but a Threat of War with Iran/Isreal. The talks in Russia broke down and there was fear that ALL talks were over therefore Isreal could bomb Iran. Oil Rallied of course. YET 15 minutes ago it was announced that Talks will be July 3 and Iran was giving up on 20% level of Urianium http://www.tehrantimes.com/politics/98893-iran-accepts-51-request-for-holding-expert-meetings
seems like all fed days
look at this rally! everything must be great! all the worry was waisted. italy spain, greece are all better now.
Looks like i sold too soon, Mortimer.
Now only to see what happens to my VGPMX.
YAY! Mr Fly is happy. 🙂 pic time
I think the chance Fed even tips its hat tomorrow is 20-25% and the market will absolutely sell off some. I am closing out 2-3 AAPL calls purchased last week for 35-40% gains and shutting down a few others by selling a July 600 against a few October 550’s. I bought some HDGE early this afternoon.