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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

South China Post: China Should Thank Trump for Trade War

The South China Post is owned by Ali Baba and Ali Baba is controlled by the communist party. Fucking everything is controlled by the communist party in China, so anything published there is most likely a direct message to the world, from China.

Here’s China thanking President Trump for crushing their hopes and dreams, trying to set back the country 100 years to a landscape filled with garbage and rice farmers.

Source: South China Post

Now it is time Chinese leaders took effective action to remove the dark cloud of uncertainty and anxiety from the minds of the Chinese people about the country’s direction. So much has been written about how US President Donald Trump’s hostile stance, including his trade war against China, would adversely affect the Chinese economy.

Chinese leaders have also repeatedly warned that complex external factors have contributed to the slowing economy.

But, come to think of it, this is not about Trump and his intention to contain the rise of China, through a trade war or otherwise.

As repeatedly argued in this space, in many ways, the Chinese should truly thank Trump for what he is doing towards the country. Without his actions, the Chinese government would not have scaled down its over-the-top propaganda drive about how amazing China has become, nor would it have been forced to reflect on its own limits and pitfalls. Nor, more pertinently for Chinese consumers, would China have been so forthright in lowering or even removing tariffs on imports including consumer goods and drugs, which it has done three times in the past year or so.

This is all about China itself, which direction it will take, and what China should do to counter the headwinds it faces.

China calling out China for market rigging propaganda. Rich.

In a bid to shore up confidence in the country’s slowing economy and faltering stock markets amid escalating trade tensions with the US, Liu played down the impact of the trade war, promised that the government would channel more funds into the stock markets, and urged investors to calm down and believe in a better tomorrow. But he failed to outline specific measures.

This was a typical ploy by the Chinese government to talk up the markets whenever they were in the doldrums, but the trick seemed briefly to work. The stocks rose strongly the following day but continued to weaken afterwards. Indeed, the official rhetoric about reform and opening up sounded all too familiar, but the leaders’ actions have indicated otherwise. Understandably, people inside and outside China remain confused about the government’s mixed signals.

And finally China tells China to do something about, quit talking cheap, and focus on internal issues.

While the government vows to take the high road in the trade war and portray itself as a global champion of trade, it has started to preach “self-reliance” to build up its own technologies so as to reduce its dependence on the US.

That pitch may seem fitting as the US has indicated it will try to curb China’s technological advances, but the attempt to highlight its self-reliance has reminded many of a bygone era in which the country was closed to the outside and self-reliance was the only option.

Chinese leaders have long preached that in face of complex external pressures, the government should decline to dance to the tunes of others and instead focus upon doing its own work right and well.

As the saying goes, talk is cheap – show me action. ?

These people are fucking lunatics. If you read between the lines, they’re priming people for harder times — by implying things aren’t going back to the way they were — and how the government should instead focus on internal demand aka consumerism.

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The Madness Must End Now, Else We’re Heading Towards a Fast Moving Bear Market

Enough is enough. The bears had their fun and the trade wars aren’t easy and pleasant anymore. I’ve been analyzing the data very closely and we’re very close to having a nervous breakdown. About 20% of stocks are off by 20% the past month, with a very large percentage of stocks just behind the threshold.

What’s important to note, as the market dropped, both bonds and gold were defensive. This is exactly how a bear market might play out, or something akin to a poor tape. Bear in mind, sometimes these squalls last awhile, and could persist for another 6 months before heading back up. I don’t have enough information yet to make that assertion. After all, the economy seems to be doing fine. Although I did not like the Beige Book data and what that mean for the consumer. There is an economic slowdown being priced in now.

Interestingly, the SAAS sector has been hit the hardest, mainly because it was the hottest sector. This is why we have stop losses people. Had I held onto these stocks, I’d be dead right now, blogging from beyond the grave.

I am going to show you a chart of the QQQs next and I do not want you to look at it with trend lines or support/resistance levels in mind. Look at it and think of ownership and how people obsess over their cost basis and how it might effect overall investor psychology.

A house of pain has been built upon a very weak foundation. If we continue to travel lower at this rate of speed, I’m afraid it could portend a truly brutal dislocation in markets that would make you regret the day you opened up a brokerage account. Lots of accounts are underwater now and we’re at a point in this narrative where the buyers must assert themselves, else risk losing longer term investors who have stops at or slightly above their cost basis.

Should we rally, just know and understand, it will not be a V shaped recovery. There’s too much technical damage. It looks like a giant head and shoulders there, which means that shoulder might run into a buzz saw of sellers and we might just barrel back down and retest the lows.

I’m assuming we bottom soon and we get to retest that shoulder. If a different narrative plays out, a complete breakdown into the danger zone, we’ll likely form a new shoulder upon bouncing at a lower level, which would only serve to complicate matters more, and build another layer of uncertainty into the market.

Did I confuse you?

Bottom line: we must bounce next week.

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I DID WARN YOU NOT TO GET HOOKED…YOU MIGHT BE HOOKED

What a day. All dicks aside, I feel sorry for anyone trying to figure out near term direction of this tape, myself included. I have so much god damned experience and an innate sixth sense that helps me navigate these tapes, I can only image how ordinary folk are feeling now.

I can tell you this with absolute certainty.

This isn’t an ordinary sell off and the market is trying to communicate something.

What is it trying to tell us? No way of knowing now, until after the fact.

I will say, we’re oversold and people really want stocks to recover. The President wants stocks to recover. The Fed doesn’t give a shit.

In the big scheme of things, this is a significant move in standard deviation in the broader indices, perhaps the most since 2011.

With regards to my inverse ETFs, I’ll hold them another day or two. Best case scenario, we fucking crash thru the floor boards on Monday and I’m able to walk away like a true boss with immense profits in tow. But life doesn’t always work out so smoothly.

In case you missed it, we’re launching a new white glove service at iBC, one that includes me telling you what’s going on in markets, via live calls, one on one. Frankly, boot camps with large groups isn’t good enough — because it doesn’t specify specific needs. Read about it here, and please take the survey.

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Hardship at House Fly Continues; Markets Bottom as He’s Away on Mission of Grandeur

I cannot get a break today. First the fucking cabinet fell atop my head as I attempted to fix it. Now, as I am away on a mission of grandeur, a leisurely Friday afternoon with markets clown punching lower, markets motherfucking bottomed and melted the fuck higher.

Here I am festooned with inverse ETFs. I even delved into the FAZmobile like a true pavement ape. God knows I don’t need additional stress in my life, so listen to me now you fucking cock-head stock Gods.

Make the market go lower now, and fast. Fuck you and your rallies, the perpetual melt ups that come from nowhere, gapping higher as idiots circle jerk to your perverse depravities.

GAP IT LOWER NOW and fix my God damned cabinet while you’re at it.

No, I will not sell any of my inverse ETFs — because we’re barreling towards the lows again, and more.

It appears the MAGA bomber has been captured and all of this ‘bomb stuff’ is fast behind us. How about blowing up the market now? Would that really be too much to ask?

Fuck you and your rallies — down the sewer pipe we go.

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GET IN THE $FAZ MOBILE!!! (DRIVES OFF FAST AS SHIT)

A great man once said, “it’s not enough that I win, see, you must lose.”

The purblind will be dragged accordingly into the meat grinder and fed to the pigs. Said pigs will get fat and plump and I will then slaughter them and devour them whole.

That’s the circle of life, folks.

Markets are in fucking BROKEN ELEVATOR plunge mode. You cannot stop the selling. It’s impossible.

Now I’m looking for a banking crisis, something to really shake up the system and give Trump a stroke.

I’m short the banks, by way of FAZ. I bought this shit into the hole because the hole is deep and getting deeper by the second. Very soon, we will be reaching the inner core of the earth and the molten lava will melt your fucking faces off.

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CRISIS HITS HOUSE FLY; SIGNIFICANT WINSHIP INCOMING

As I’ve outlined here many times, the more pain and agony I feel at home, whether it be thru broken appliances or sudden cracks in every ceiling of my house — that hardship is often matched by extreme winship in the market. I’m a firm believer in cosmic radiance and how good offsets the bad, and vice versa.

Be me.

Wake up at 6:30am sharp. No need to press snooze, because you’re excited to awaken, as you’ve got some inverse ETFs to profit from. Wake up 13yr old son, say hello to 15 yr old daughter, barrel downstairs and drink some water. Drive kids to school, get a few chuckles on the way back listening to Howard Stern, park car and go back into the house.

Say hello to dogs, let them in the yard, slam door shut.

Tell Alexa to “play WQXR fm, tune in radio” — quietly listen to Bach, eagerly watching S&P futures melt the fuck lower.

Go to kitchen and place a kettle of water to boil for coffee., and a pot of water for eggs. Grind beans, smells delicious. Now Beethoven is playing in the background. Visit pantry and take out French bread that you bought from Costco and sheave off a healthy slice. Place in panini press.

Drop 3 eggs in boiling water and tell Alexa “set timer for 6 minutes” because anything more or less than 6 minutes is imperfection. We cannot have any of that.

Pour boiling water in French Press and set timer for 4 minutes to steep. Pour milk in frother and and begin heating milk for coffee.

Notice cabinet is leaning a little and won’t close. Investigate further.

Grab screwdriver and blindly poke around and unscrew a bolt here, tighten one there. Cabinet door worsens.

Bread in panini press smells delicious, really heating up now.

Escalate my attempt to repair cabinet by taking out drill. Unscrews everything, removes cabinet, pretends to have an idea what I’m doing.

Eggs are ready, drop in bowl of cold water. Coffee is ready too — plunge press into ground beans. Milk is ready too.

Proceed to fix cabinet, annoyed by inability to fit bracket correctly. Cabinet nearly falls on my head.

Twenty one year old son comes down, takes 2 of my eggs and bread — eats breakfast. Pours himself a cup of coffee too.

Escalates repair further by taking out step ladder to get a better angle at now knowing what I’m doing.

Ah, got it. Attempts to close cabinet, but it swings right back open, much worse than before.

Takes drill and removes bracket, screw drops in between oven and counter, attempts to grab it, cabinet falls on my head.

Now irate, seeing red. Attempts to fix cabinet 20 times in a row and each time it gets worse. Removes fucking cabinet and tosses drill into the fucking laundry room sink, saying “fuck it.”

Grabs cold egg and slice of cold white bread. Pours self cup of coffee with milk — but it overflows and milk spills onto floor. Bites into egg and yolk drips on pants, coffee spills on shirt.

SITS DOWN TO WRITE A FUCKING BLOG ABOUT ORDEAL. CATASTROPHE.

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ATTENTION: New Service Coming to iBankCoin Soon (Take this God Damned Survey)

Greetings,

The good folks at iBankCoin are in the middle stages of launching a new service, due to demand.

It will have two tiers, one of which will allocate 1 hr of 1 on 1 mentoring/consultation from Le Fly, or anyone from iBankCoin. The other tier will allocate 3 hrs per month, with access to Le Fly’s rolodex, including Jeff Macke, Ragin Cajun, Raul, The Devil, Chuck Bennett and many other wonderful figures. And, yes, I will personally do conferences with you and teach you what you need to be told, in addition to many other things.

The details are not available yet, but it’s designed to teach and coach traders/investors about trading, portfolio allocation, option strategies, structuring, anything related to Exodus, and pretty much any questions or concerns you have about investing. Think of it like a boot camp on steroids — custom tailored for your needs.

Because I have limited time, I can only accept a limited amount of members, up to 100 hours per month — which is already a lot. Pricing will be $99 and $299 per mo, with discounts on annual. Please take this anonymous survey below to let us know if this is a service you’d be interested in.

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Amazon Ravaged in After-Hours — Futures TTTTTtank

I told you so.

It’s over, faggots. The market is French toast, a surrender version of ordinary toast.

I will have you know, effervescently, AMZN, GOOGL, and SNAP are all sharply lower. You took a fucking haircut, mate. Deal with it.

I’m happy I kept my shorts. But I kept them because I knew better. I knew better because I was born smart. I was born smart because I derive from ancient lineage of artists and shamans.

Fly wins again.

See you fucked faces tomorrow. Off to cook some steaks.

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Holding Shorts into Tomorrow — Looking for February Redux

Enough of the mealy mouthed having it both ways horseshit. Here’s what I really think is going to happen.

Markets cannot V shape recover out of this hole. Today’s melt up cannot and will not continue into tomorrow. If you’re betting on that, you’ll be raped first thing tomorrow morning.

Back in Feb, we had a similar spate of weakness. A giant down day was followed by big up day and then inside of 1 week…we melted the fuck lower again.

Everything is beautiful about today. I have zero problems with the structure of the rally. But that’s the nature of a circle jerk. End up trading to and fro too many times and end up in the fucking grind house with your bones on fire.

Do you know why you feel fucked up right now?

It’s because you’re trading your entire account. Quit doing that, else I’ll come over there and slap the shit out of you. Take 25% of your money and trade it — the rest leave for long term cap gains. Or, like me, put that fucker into a Quant strategy.

I ate some tuna fish on toast today, two cups of coffee, and I brushed my teeth 9 times. I’m +3.5% on my quant and getting drilled on my inverses in my trading; but 75% of the account is cash. I should’ve sold the inverses this morning — after I had a suspicion we’d have a slow boil up type of day. We’re likely to close at the highs and everyone will go home feeling good. During supper, your wives will ask how your day went and you’ll say “just fine, dear, thanks. Please pass the gravy.”

You’ll go to sleep feeling euphoric and then wake up in the morning to a fucking nightmare, S&P futures sharply lower and everyone you know will be hanging out from windows in an attempt to collect life insurance post mortem.

GOOD DAY.

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The Moment of Truth Lies in the Last Hour of Trade

How is your day going? Good I hope.

I have a metric that I’m watching to determine if there’s underlying strength or weakness in the tape. I only care about tech, because it’s the best, and has been hit the hardest. On my momentum screen in Exodus, there are 49 names now. Overall breadth is in the order of 83%, a fine showing and I wouldn’t worry too much about this afternoon fade, since it’s a meaningless time of day.

The slow boil from this morning culminated and poleaxed anyone who faded the open.

My momo screen is simple: find stocks up more than 2% for the session, within 1% of session highs. That’s it. Perfect and it works.

Here’s the problem with today.

The rally isn’t to be trust, since we almost died yesterday. Anyone short is waiting for the next shoe to drop. Anyone long is suspect of tomorrow. This is normal and I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow was a do nothing Friday.

Not to sounding like a hedging fucking faggot who’s always right and thumbing his nose at everyone, but this is the reason why my quant account has 75% of my investable income and is 100% long and doesn’t adjust intra-month. I review the account on the first day of each month and adjust then.

My trading account is losing money today, but it’s 75% cash, so I’m mostly walking around in a robe with my balls swinging around.

Look for a sharp move to the upside at 3pm for confirmation of today’s rally.

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