A Halcyon Day of Trading

I woke up at 4am because I had some overnight trades that were going to fly. I was smarter than everyone else because I had an account at Webull which enabled me to trade at 4am, whereas the morons at Robinhood and Schwab had to wait until 8am or later. I felt good being smarter than everyone else and liked to tell people my secrets — because it made me feel better.

To my surprise I had 2 or 3 stocks lifting 30-100% at 4:02am. My wife was sleeping next to me and I needed to make sure not to make too much noise that would wake her. I am, after all, a good person.

Looking at the bids and offers and the overall excitement of the tape, I decided to place my offers to sell 5% above ask. I got filled and boasted about it inside the Pelican Room and then went to sleep, setting my alarm for 9am.

Upon waking up, I went downstairs and made myself a double espresso latte and then sat down at my high powered PC with my numerous screens. I’ve found that the more screens I had, the more information I could attain, the more money I could make. My wife wasn’t particularly fond over my screens — but what did she know? She wasn’t awake at 4am making $20k — I was.

The market opened and everything lifted. My gains were at around +6% for the session and I was just getting started. I had a certain bias about a certain sector of the market that was becoming popular and all I needed was for more people to become attracted to it in order to jimmy-rig those stocks higher. I felt good, successful, and pleasant. I was always in good spirits when making lots of money — because being charitable makes me feel good. What better charity is there than me helping others attain wealth through my wisdom filled advice? I was like literally helping the world be a better place.

Lunch time came around and I asked my wife to “make me a sandwich pal — and more coffee.” She never liked me talking that way — but I did so anyway — because I was in good spirits, healthy, and generally gregarious.

I took to my website and boasted about my exploits and then to Twitter and then back to my trading room, where everyone was wealthy and in good spirits. There were a few people who were short stocks and losing money. I didn’t feel bad for them — because it just seemed to me they were stupid and deserved to lose — a form of Darwinism.

At the close of trade, I made about 100 trades for an overall return of +9%. I made sure to leverage my portfolio into the close at 180% long because SPACs were fun and often ran well into the evening. My buddy called me up after the close to discuss his book. The clients he managed money for sent him more money to invest and I felt pity for him and them because he didn’t know what I knew and would never make as much as me. I tried to help him understand what stocks to buy — but I knew giving him this information was a waste of my time — since he just wasn’t capable of trading as good as me.

At around 7:30pm, while at Target with Mrs. Fly, one of my stocks ran up by 40% on no news. It did not surprise me and I really did feel as if the “Stock Gods” favored me for a variety of reasons. I was of course a “good person” and also very smart. These two things entitled me to gains largess. Plus I had put in so many years of effort into perfecting my craft and now felt I was one of the best, if not the best, trader alive today. The fact that I wasn’t as rich as others was a mere inconvenient fact. I attributed that to other things beyond my control. The facts spoke for themselves. I had gains of an unparalleled nature and it wasn’t an accident. I was special and it felt good to think that, so I did — but I kept it inside and didn’t reveal it to my wife because I was, of course, a good person.

During the Trump administration years one of his biggest detractors was a person called BILL KRYSTOL, widely hated by both the right and the left. He is what is called a “neocon” and doesn’t really have any allegiance other than to spread “democracy” around the world through war — the neocon doctrine. They’re a lot like Trotskyites and if you track down his lineage you will find his father was King Neocon, who of course had close ties with Trotsky. The neocons were the aggressive communists who wanted to spread their way of thinking through war and then they were ousted out of Russia: they came here.

Those same fuckers coopted the republican party and made very specific appeals and for a while went unchecked, especially after 9/11. But now it’s pretty obvious they’re all war-pigs who don’t like America the way it was or is — but have a vision for it the way they intend to rule over it.

My point is, Bill’s favorite candidate was and always will be Nikki Haley. Aside from never-ending war, Nikki also wants to nuke your social security fund because giving it to you at 65 is simply too young and needs to be more in line with your DEATH DAY.

I only tell you of my opinions to warn you — in case Nikki suddenly surges in ze polls and starts to collect all sorts of campaign donations and/or becomes the VP candidate.

As for markets: I have no business trading and made a mess today, losing 1.1% in whip-saw action. We jumped higher and both my quant and longer term accounts made money — but my indecisive trading, coupled with lack of conviction, caused me to get churned. I lost 1.5% for the week, now down 11% for August — up 33% YTD.

What to do when slumping in such a manner?

Normally you want to trade through it and stick to one conviction. The issue I am having is the market is behaving anticipatory and I am an instinct trader. In other words, the momentum isn’t there. The moves are had only if you positioned ahead in anticipation of such a move. Once you see the move and lured into it — it’s over. This isn’t always the case and I always do best CHASING performance.

I closed with a fully long book — probably the most bullish book all month. I am positioned this way because of today’s action and guess that if rates didn’t jump after the Fed said they’d raise em’ again today — there is a good chance we could see stocks rise again on Monday. Either way, it has been dreadful for me and I have not enjoyed my job trading, which reminds me why I quit money management and how I hated it during the bad times.

The highs are high and the lows are very low.

I’ll summarize my trading day thus far and then offer some opinions on what the fuck is happening.

“OMG — I have to cover my shorts — this market is going to suck Powell’s dick.”

“Hey now, this doesn’t look too good. Let me hedge.”

“Oh shit it’s happening — the market is gonna bust the fuck loose — let’s get some cool growth stocks and relax.”

“HOLY SHIT — what’s happening. Sell sell sell. Let’s short this motherfucker into the ground.”

Net net, I am down 25bps and now with some shorts to make myself feeeeeeeeel better. Apparently Powell at Jackson’s Hole is giving the market the old hucklebuck, shoeing all of the bulls in their asses.

US 10yr is +5bps, the Nasdaq is lower by 35, oil is up and the US 3m is now yielding 5.5%.

So let’s make this simple for even you fucking retards to understand what is going on.

Do you have an account at Treasury Direct yet? If not, what’s stopping you? You can take your cash and get 5.5% for 3mo bills. Why keep your money in your bank yielding less when you can get more risk free?

Do you understand this behavioral choice — simple yes?

CHARLES FUCKING SCHWAB IS GOING TO GOD DAMNED ZERO.

Last night you went to bed with homosexual fantasies of prancing around today happily enjoying the gains from $NVDA. Instead of that happening, a dark cloud loomed large over Joe Biden’s stock market and CRASHED IT into the fucking rocks and dirt. All of the bulls, each and every single one of them, bled today. They’re gonna bleed some more tomorrow.

The $IWM is now in the hole by 7.7% for the month — the worst August since 2011 when the fucking Greeks were selling island to pay their bills.

Shares of $NVDA closed flat, and lower in the after-hours. The one thing the bulls have going for them is JACKSON HOLE — where Fed’s Powell will give a speech tomorrow. Dare I say he might assuage markets to stave off the inevitable?

Either way, I managed to bear down and work through what I viewed as a difficult tape, limited my losses to just 15bps. I closed a gigantic short before the bell and kept a 10% position in $TZA. I only keep the short so that I can dream tonight or nightmares on Wall Street, cascading prices prompting margin clerks to kick open doors and liquidate accounts at the market. Ladies and Gentlemen, we are on the precipice of LIMIT DOWN trading and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Whether markets recover or not from the morning debacle is anyone’s guess. Although I am delighted to see things spinning out of control to the downside — bulls running for cover with a trail of rainbow flags in their wake, I’d like to take this opportunity to remind you to check with your local medical professionals about this year’s COVID-19 vaccination.

If old or auto-immune deficient, you’d be wise to visit your local CVS this autumn and have a frank conversation as to the timing of when to receive your annual shot. While it’s true, you might get COVID this winter — you will be GRATEFUL and thankful for the scientific community of hard working persons for the lack of severity in your illness.

It also might be a good time, seeing how COVID is busting loose, to have sincere conversations with people you know who are anti-vaxx. Offer them links to medical journals, written by experts, and make an valiant effort to educate them.

Alas, the time has come as a society of fair minded people that we no longer tolerate those who reject science. To ensure the safety for all, experts agree that measures should be taken in order to assuage those who are vaccine hesitant to make the smart decision to protect themselves, their loved one’s, and neighbors.

If you want access to professional medical care, such as birthing centers or cardiac and cancer wards — you must be vaccinated.

If you want to buy food in person or dine out or enjoy traveling, viewing concerts, ballgames etc — you must be vaccinated.

If you want to travel cross-state — you must be vaccinated.

If you want to work inside of an office with others — you must be vaccinated.

Naturally, the choice is yours but we all must chip in for the benefit of the whole. By not vaccinating and believing in online conspiracy theories, you place all of us at risk.

It was supposed to be a grande opening — heralding in a new era of prosperity thanks in large part to $NVDA and their glorious earnings. Instead, we got a hard red candle at the open and a small capped index LOWER by 0.54%. Breadth is languishing at 54% and the US 2yr is +6bps to 5.01%, of course INVERTED heavily vs the 10yr but the 2s and 10s don’t really matter any more.

All that seems to matter these days is the NASDAQ 100, so we’ll keep a very close eye on it. We’re up 40 now — down from +195 in the futures last night — an awfully dreadful and demoralizing collapse of fortune. But it’s early and let’s not count out the bulls yet, for I am sure they have more tricks up their tranny sleeves.

Oil is lower, stocks are cratering — it’s the god damned end of the world!

I made it out alive today, +41bps in somewhat chaotic trade. I ranged from -55bps to +71bps and closed with tepid, but ok returns. I am hedged at 15% of holdings into what the market views as the most important earnings of all time: the AI chip maker $NVDA.

I own the stock from a long time ago and have no intentions to sell — because why bother? The company is on the verge of creating a new civilization and with the profits they make — I am nearly certain my good fortunes will increase.

Overall, the markets stampeded higher by +200 NASDAQs based on the collapse of yields, -11bps. We are completely directed by the bond market now and if I was a betting man — I’d bet you’re all gonna get fucked come September.

That’s right — the gloom and doom of the Autumn beckons. With the foiling of the trees and browning of the landscape, your portfolios will soon turn to shit. My best guess is for a spirited attempt to rally into the final week of August, since the $IWM is knifed down by 6.5% for the month. But nothing can save you from the horrors that are to come.

We already know the consumer has died and with it the profits of corporate America. It’s only a matter of time before these things are priced the fuck in as you are inexorably priced the fuck out.

We’ll always have Bakhmut.

Russian news agency TASS reported PMC Wagner head Prigozhin was killed in a most unfortunate plane incident. It is also being reported by PMC Wagner that Russian air defenses shot it down, killing 10 including Prighozin.

PRIGOZHIN PLANE DESTROYED
pic.twitter.com/N0hQXTBwrY

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 23, 2023

Is anyone surprised? If anyone tried a coup in America, that person would be immediately killed or jailed. For whatever reason, Russia was unable to do so and opted to place Prigozhin on ice at a later date. Well, we are here and I doubt any Russian inside the leadership of Wagner will protest against this course of action.

In the off-chance all of the reports are indeed fake, well then fuck Twitter/X for fooling me.

I view this event as having minimal effects on the war and/or markets — simply an internal event in Russia or a form of justice delivered in a way understood by people in a war at the highest points in power.

Yesterday I said this:

HOWEVER, all of my machinations and opinions are somewhat gaunt in the face of a market which refuses to drop — are they not? If things or people were truly in a bad state — wouldn’t markets reflect as much? I think it’s important, especially when the news doesn’t match the action, to take a step back and trade small — to wait and see — rather than jump to conclusions. Next thing you know, bond yields tank 20bps tomorrow on some Fed speech and the NASDAQ flies +200 and everyone cries foul — how it’s all rigged and it’s a scam. The only scam is refusing to accept reality and living inside a fantasyland of your own choosing.

Today the NASDAQ is +145 and the US 10yr is down 9bps. All of the fashionable stocks are rallying and people are clamoring to get in. After all, Stocklabs is oversold and inflation is under control and US profits, in spite of what the people at $FL say, are pretty pretty good (Larry David voice).

Do you see how one day can change a perspective? It felt so right and just to be short yesterday — but today an anathema. Hence markets and sentiment — here one day and gone the next. This is nothing more than a short term game of sentiment, based upon longer term fundamentals.

After the close we have earnings out of $NVDA. I own it for my children in their trust accounts and have been tempted to sell — but why bother. I’m pretty sure they’ll mention AI 50 times and people can’t get enough. The stock is ABSURDLY overvalued — but since when has that mattered in the midst of a bubble?

BOTTOM LINE: With treasury yields plunging again, stocks have indeud become attractive. Whilst the earnings pitfalls of PTON and FL are troubling — it’s all part of an overall pattern that describes the US consumer as weak and feeble. In the past we used to place great emphasis on the consumer — but these days the economy operates on smoke and shadows — producing gigantic companies with massive troves of cash which seems to come out from nowhere.

Imagine heading into August with your pompous charts in tow, fully long stocks like $SE, $RBLX, $SQ, $NIO, $RIVN and $PLTR. You were feeling great and also laughed at how stupid Biden was because of in spite of all of that — markets just kept going up. Your glib and smirky demeanor caused you to tweet stupid shit and make ridiculous predictions based on your present experiences. Like most low IQ individuals, forecasting out into the future is a foreign concept. Those people want their $NKE kicks now and that’s all there is to it.

You should know all of the aforementioned stocks in the opening sentences of the previous paragraph are down more than 30% for the month — mere flesh wounds in a never ending and unceasing march higher. Nike is also on a RECOURD losing streak — down 8 consecutive days. The NASDAQ is down just 5.3% for the month, so you’re not scared.

But remember last year when the NASDAQ dropped 5% in August and then another 10% in September, which promptly placed the fear of the almighty into you.

I have no disillusions here. I am down 10% for August and have traded poorly. Like you, I bought into the idea that stocks would keep marching higher and it was funny to see it go up no matter the news, in spite of the abhorrent lack of leadership. But those chickens have come home to roost and JOE FUCKING BIDEN is delirious off dementia meds and Trump is fast approaching a prison cell and Russia is threatening to pierce a stake through the heart of NATO — with China in their corner as a willing and active participant.

Feel free to oppose my thinking and convince me that I’m wrong. I am willing to listen.