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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

UKRAINE UNDER STATE OF EMERGENCY; U.S. SAYS RUSSIA ATTACKS TONIGHT

There appears to be a significant escalation of events happening tonight, starting with the President of Ukraine attempting to call Putin and then speaking to the Russian people in Russian, a language he has attempted to remove from Ukraine, in an effort to sue for peace.

Here is the run down.

ABC News is reporting that Russian military commanders have gone to command center.

Ukraine closes airspace nationwide, citing “potential hazard” *

REPORTS OF EXPLOSIONS IN MARIUPOL

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU): Russia has purchased 45,000 body bags.

RUSSIA HAS CLOSED SOME AIRSPACE IN ROSTOV FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION ON EASTERN BORDER OF UKRAINE – NOTICE TO AIRMEN

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken believes Russia will invade Ukraine before the night is over – NBC/REU

I hate to even bring up markets in light of what will amount to be pain and suffering for people; but NASDAQ futs are -85, moderate losses all things considered. Moreover, we are seeing grains sharply higher and wheat +2.3%. If Russia does begin a full scale invasion tonight — markets might not collapse in the way you think they will. In my opinion, Ukraine is to Russia what Iraq was to America in terms of threat, so it should end quickly and hopefully without much collateral damage. The big question for markets will be: Will Putin end at Kiev or will he then turn his guns on the Baltics?

I must say, the diplomatic savvy amongst NATO and Ukraine, at least on the surface, has been nothing less than dreadful. The hubris and the arrogance in the face of military might made no sense, almost as if these people thought they were invisible. The main Russian assertion, to paraphrase, is Ukraine had gone too west and was turning its back on their Russian culture and becoming a security threat to Russia. Seeing U.S. govt officials constantly parading themselves in Ukraine, whoring themselves out for Lockheed and Raytheon, as well as securing lucrative Ukrainian business contracts (Hunter Biden) has undoubtedly fucked over the average Ukrainian citizen who will now suffer because the greedy leaders failed to take tangible threats seriously and felt they could do whatever they wanted to, despite any consequences they might endure later on.

A gaggle of Eddie Barzoons.

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Glorious Wreckage: The Fly Surges Amidst Toil and Tumult

Greetings plebs

As many you see, we are in crisis now. As many of you know, those versed in my track record at iBankCoin – I have yet to miss an opportunity to profit off crisis. We traded here merrily in the 2008 fires and even during the 2020 plague. Now we have the final end game and some of you aren’t onboard. I will lay it out best I can, in layman’s terms.

Russia is sick of America’s bullshit and is using our CRT/LGBT chasm of weakness to advance their internal goals. We have never been weaker as a country, so they figured “fuck it, let’s sack Ukraine.”

Toothless and defenseless Europe now finds themselves in the unfortunate position of having to FREEZE and STARVE to death due to their reliance on Russian wheat and gas. They cannot fight against Russia — because all of the men of Europe have been replaced by trannies (I realize I am coming across as a reprobate).

As Russia has us by the nuts, China will extend their cocks into Taiwan and then we shall really see tumult.

The world is in the beginning stages of burning. What you see here is a mere kindling. The ancillary effects of Russian war is sharply higher commodity prices but more importantly SCARCITY. This is why renewables like GRPE, REGI, and OPPT ran today when they should have collapsed. We also saw spikes in the grains, which will lead to shortages in fertilizers. MOS is your play there.

Let’s not forget alumnium. The pleb buys AA on aluminum shortage headlines; but the keen investor, those found inside the gracious confines of Stocklabs, buys BTU — because he knows and understands how aluminum is made.

In short, we are just getting started.

+140bps for the session, fully invested and leveraged with a blend of longs and shorts.

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WHEAT PRICES EXPLODE TO NEW HIGHS AMIDST RUSSIAN CRISIS

SIR —

SIR!

You can sanction Europe all you want. Russia’s tiny economy holds all of the natural gas, oil, and also wheat, so also enjoy starving to death. I do not say this with malice, but only find it amusing how fucking stupid the Europeans are for getting checkmated like this so hard.

On top of that, Ukraine is the “bread basket” of Europe, leaving a panic in the commodity pits now with prices of wheat soaring to new highs.

My play for this is MOS — but there are others. Stocks like BG, IPI and CTVA are also interesting. Let’s not forget dry bulk shippers, who might be needed to prevent Europe from starving. This trade isn’t hard. Short stocks, long volatility, long commodities.

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STOCKS COLLAPSE AS WAR IN UKRAINE LOOMS

I am sure you all had a lot of fun the past 6 years, playing Gordon Gekko inside the stock exchange. But all of that is now over. The fires are here and they’re burning bright and beautiful.

U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT RUSSIA PLANS TO USE ITS MILITARY RESERVES AND NATIONAL GUARD, SUGGESTING LONG TERM GOALS IN UKRAINE- OFFICIAL

RUSSIAN FORCES ARRAYED AROUND UKRAINE ARE AS READY AS THEY CAN BE, 80 PERCENT IN FORWARD POSITIONS, READY TO GO – U.S. DEFENSE OFFICIAL

Along that narrative, Le Fly is +70bps for the session, supreme during a period of extreme duress. Sir, I was built in the fires, for the fires. My entire life is a culmination of blazes only offered respite inside simmering conflagrations of vengeance.

You are not built for the fires and shall melt in it. This new era we find ourselves in will pit neighbor against neighbor, cannibalism rampant along the countryside. Black market arms dealers ruling areas like Tribal Overlords, lawless amidst a barter system of worthless dollars. This is not the tail-end of the downturn but the very beginning. We have significant downside to go, all in due time and without warning.

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Market Fades at the Open — Traders on Edge

Tenuous start to the session with numerous fades. Not sure if it’s over again, but at least we have wildly higher commodity prices to make us feeeeel better.

It would appear risk appetite isn’t there now, likely due to the war mongers on the left clamoring for world war. Once we get past all of this we could then refocus our attention on 9 RATE HIKES FOR 2022.

I allocated into commodities, kept my shorts and volatility long, 40% cash. I will decide what to do with the rest later on. I feel uneasy being exposed on both the long and the short side.

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Futures Rise Ahead of Potential Full Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine

For the record, I don’t give a flying fuck about “The Ukraine.” There appears to be some sort of rabid jingoism taking place on the hard left in this country regarding war and our alleged allies in the Ukraine. I will never advocate for the loss of American lives over business interests. You can read it over again if you like and understand that my loyalty only lies with the people who live in my country and the servicemen who live in it. I view these things as a parent of two boys and always put it into this context: “would I want my boys fighting and dying for the fucking Ukraine?”

Don’t even mention democracy.That ship sailed a long time ago.

That answer will always be no.

Futures are +125 and it seems like madmen are out bidding them up, ahead of what appears to be escalation. There has been no diplomatic breakthroughs and Ukraine is still out talking greasy about Russia, poking them in the chest if you will. Large convoys of Russian mechanized units have been seen STEAMING towards Ukraine and I suspect we might get a bad headline or two before the week is over.

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Things Will Get Better

Consider the following.

LOOMING WW3

LOOMING INFLATION

LOOMING FED HIKES

LOOMIG BIDEN IS ASLEEP

LOOMING LOOMING

Can we have a worse news flow to start a new year? Things will get better, appreciably so. But before it does, you need to position yourselves for success and quit trying to make all of your losses back in one trade. This is a methodical process and at times you might want to quit. Rest assured, I have felt like giving up countless times over my rich and illustrious career trading. I have never fashioned myself to be a guru or something that knows all, since we’re all fallible and prone to error. I went half my career figuring out new and creative ways to lose my clients money before I got it.

It’s not how much you can make on the way up, but how much you don’t lose on the way down.

I closed +73bps with 70% cash, a blend of longs and shorts — not really liking anything out there including oil which has been in the dumps. If you’re lost in the sauce — give Stocklabs a try. We work tirelessly to figure it all out and have an excellent group of strip club going traders in there who are more than willing to insult you and tell you how awesome they are, in the face of all that is looming.

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STOCKS RALLY ON BIDEN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA ANNOUNCEMENT

Markets liked the Biden sanctions on Russia and are now rallying once again. The market is craving a short squeeze and any semblance of good news, or not so terrible news, is met with buy orders.

Interestingly, the Russian markets closed up today, ad rallied following Biden’s limited sanctions.

To be fair to Biden, there isn’t much he can do against a nation with hardly any debt and natural resources that net them profits every year.

That said, it’s 3:05pm and I shall not be lured into any large long positions. Ahead of the speech, I bought VALE and ATI and lean slightly long — but will likely only add to my portfolio at the very end of the session — fearful of scam wicks.

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RUSSIA EVACUATES DIPLOMATS FROM UKRAINE; TENSIONS BUILD

Markets head faked early on and I was wise enough to not be lured into the trap. The west has applied meaningless sanctions on Russia thus far, excluding the purchase of gas and oil and all of the things that are important. The reason for this is the west, namely Europe, are mostly interested in comfort and do not want to sacrifice anything for the sake of human lives, if we’re being honest. They will not hurt themselves to help the nation of Ukraine — period and end of story.

Here are some recent headlines worth of attention:

French FM LeDrian cancels meeting with Lavrov scheduled for end of the week

EC PRES. VON DER LEYEN: THE CRISIS DEMONSTRATES THAT THE EU IS OVERLY RELIANT ON RUSSIAN GAS AND THAT IT NEEDS TO DIVERSIFY ITS SUPPLIERS AND INVEST HEAVILY IN RENEWABLES.

EU’S BORRELL: PUTIN NOT ON SANCTIONS LIST

MILITARY CONVOY OF MORE THAN 100 TRUCKS WITH SOLDIERS SEEN ON ITS WAY TOWARDS UKRAINIAN BORDER IN RUSSIA’S BELGOROD REGION

EU’S FOREIGN MIN. BORRELL: SANCTIONS ARE ONLY ONE PART OF OUR RESPONSE

Clearly Putin isn’t done eating up Ukraine. Markets were again disillusioned with the perverted idea that dips should be bought and enjoyed, whilst Russian troops were on the move.

Removing myself from all of this: How fucking fucked is this timeline — jumping out from the grill right into the boiling cauldron?

I think into the bell long oils, short small caps makes sense.

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Markets in Flux: My Take

I cleared out all of my positions at the open, booking small gains in UVXY, SQQQ and my oils. I only tool small losses in SHOP and NVDA for an overall score of +90bps. While not exactly what I was looking for, it seemed the market had other ideas and wanted to rally. Since, I have placed just 3 positions on: SQ, MOS, with a TZA hedge. I am more or less done for the day, since I do not believe the rally nor do I have the appetite to fade it.

The market is now subservient to news flow and that news is wholly unpredictable, making this trade incredibly hard. There is some risk reward opportunities in Russian stocks — but fuck off if you think I’m interested in any of that.

The obvious play here is LNG/Oil — but even those are fading now because Wall Street is fucked in the head. The way it works, the way it always has worked, is a mechanism over supply vs demand. People took lots of oils in their inventory due to this conflagration and have now decided to sell, irrespective of the fundamentals. In the short term, price fluctuations is maddening; but on a long enough time frame the numbers and the letters all line up and make sense.

For now 85% cash, reading a book, keeping one eye on my newswire.

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