ALERT: EVACUATE MARKETS

Listen to me

This is not a drill and although you’re not serious people — I feel obligated to inform you of what is transpiring.

We have crossed the rubicon of oversold and done so along time ago. We are now ebbing, ungraciously, towards actual crisis — the sort of crisis that calls for an old fashioned flushing out.

Investor margin debt stands at an impressive $700b, down from a trillion built up at the top of markets when all of the morons traded cartoons for a living. But over the past two years, markets have collapsed and with it the money of all of those people who felt it was a good idea to buy digital pictures of rocks for millions of dollars.

Look — we have a problem here. Mortgages are cresting towards 8% and there isn’t any end in sight to what looks like a run on US treasuries. I grew up in an America that was known to me as just and resilient, hard but fair. We are none of those things now — gone are the halcyon days of largess and in comes the tyranny of a few weak men — imposing themselves onto the many.

I closed the session down 46bps — because I am a professional of the highest esteem. I am NET SHORT into tomorrow and view the VIX as LOW in the 20s. A real crisis deserves a VIX of 30 and higher. Very soon we will begin to hear about margin calls and hedge funds blowing up in fantastic fashion.

Backi in the dot com days when I was a stockbroker — I once had a personal margin call of $300,000. My margin clerk, her name was Felicia, all but kicked in my door and demanding payment post haste else she was prepared, as it was her right to do so, to liquidate my account at the market and fuck me over royally. After I had written the check and satisfied the call, the very next day I lost tens of thousands of it in a market that spawned directly from hades itself — all but ruining any plans young Fly had at building lasting wealth in a market as perverse as the dot coms.

At any rate, brace yourselves for severe downside action — the sort of tape that causes you to pretend it’s not really happening, only that it is and you’re here now reading me warning you about it ahead of time — something you will come to appreciate as the tenor of time manifests itself.

Many of my hedge fund friends are complaining to me now about the “cowardice” of traders. They tell me “why isn’t anyone buying stocks? Why don’t you write about how cheap things are Fly?” I can only tell them that “it’s over — and you need to shut up now and plan for life after money management.”

For the sake of your families and all those you hold dear — have a looksy, if you will, at the US 10yr — rapidly and fastidiously approaching 5%. People earning less than $500,000 per annum will never be able to buy a home again.

To suggest mildly that “it’s over” is a gross understatement and I only say it in passing, matter of factly. When you really come to think about it, we are much more likely to resume hostile activities against one another in this country — rather than live in peace and equanimity.

We are mostly an animus people — always on the lookout for war and turmoil. It’d be nice to just chalk it up to the government and blame them — but the people are culpable in nearly every single crime committed by the ruling elite and you’d behoove yourselves into thinking otherwise.

In front of me now is the choice between buying this dip or shorting into the hole. By buying into the dip I am siding with the transgendered bulls — thinking stocks have bottomed and better times are ahead. If I short into the hole, I am betting on collapse — a seasonal tradition steeped in rich history and custom. Many men better than you have ruined themselves in October — forced to jump head long out of their windows and right onto the concrete below.

I’d like to believe stocks are poised to crash — because to be frank with you — that’s exactly what we deserve.

But we are getting very oversold here and my instincts for preservation are alive and well. In other words, I need more time to figure this out.

Markets are careening lower — with the NASDAQ down 190 — and I have light jazz music playing in the background — Autumn Breeze to be specific. I knew it was going to happen. The forecast was for a category 5 hurricane — but I wanted to play just one more round of golf. The way I was thinking way back yesterday was “it’d be nice to squeeze in a quick 18 holes before the storm comes.” Unfortunately, the storm came sooner than I had expected and now I am reeling back to my car.

I lost my hat, down 74bps early going only saved by a volatility hedge placed yesterday before the close. In case you’re worried about me — do not. I have many hats and possess a unique ability to survive storms.

One time as a boy all of NYC was hiding inside of their homes upon the landing of Hurricane Gloria. I peered out of my window and saw the trees sway side to side — sheets of rains blanketing the landscape. I did what any person my age would do in a situation like that — I called on my friend and we played baseball in the parking lot and I hit a grand slam — the winds carried the ball off my bat perhaps 1,000 feet never to be seen again. It is possible that ball, hit in 1985, might still be traveling today.

I want you to recognize what is occurring today and act accordingly. The US 10yr is 4.76%, up another 7bps. We have a crisis underway, emanating from the highest echelons of power down to the looters rampaging throughout the nation completely unchecked, protected even. We are in the early stages of SOCIETAL COLLAPSE and to price that in we’re going to need thousands upon thousands of Dow points to be shaved off the index. In an honest and just world, markets will return to the 2009 lows when it satanically bottomed at 666 on the S&P 500.

As of right now, I have 10% in $SQQQ, 56% cash, the rest in some low beta large cap stocks, broadly diversified — resisting the urge to go all in short because it’s early and retards love to buy dips, reminiscing on brighter days when Pax Americana was at its apex. But it’s over and I sorry you’re too stupid to figure it out.

Audio version

Think about how foolish you all are, betting against the man who 10 x’d his account since 2021. Look at me — I stand before you +74bps for the session — supremely confident in my position. I have a pastiche of longs and shorts, optimally derived in my laboratory of stocks — a denizen of profound profit.

Whilst you meander about markets, I command a presence and dominate the field of finance.

The important thing to remember about this specific tape is treasuries are screaming higher and the prices of those bonds on the balance sheets at the banks have all but collapsed in value — down to BELOW 50% from basis.

Towards the latter part of the afternoon, the cabal rigged it higher — led by $AAPL, $MSFT, GOOGL and other cabal stocks. They do as they like while they can — but eventually the fires will rise and consume them — reducing their plans and material wealth to dust.

Meanwhile, I am NET LONG into tomorrow, with an intent to harvest my early autumn gains at the open — trading small and carefully, building wealth over time as all reputable houses have done since the Roman Empire salted the earth of Carthage.

I am 10% exposed to the market as of now — but that can change at any moment. I am long $SOXL because the market is down heavily and whenever that happens — retards enter the foray and bid it up.

I am +62bps so far in smart trading — very smart indeed. I have been long and short — but mostly right.

The presumption is we are going to cascade lower and detonate the 401k plans of all hard working Americans by Hallow’s Eve. That presumption, dare I say, is exactly right.

The US 10yr is +10bps and all hell is busting loose in the treasury market, further deepening the already crimson losses at the banks. We have an inexorable and palpable crisis evolving and the people are mad as hell about it.

I’d say the mood in America is worse than I’ve ever seen it in my lifetime. People, generally speaking, want upheaval at home and peace abroad.

Today’s markets are foisting unbelievable cartoonish sized losses in just about every venue BUT Bitcoin miners and trillion dollar monopolies. If you’re not involved in those niche areas of the market, your losses are in the ball park of -1.5% today.

My gains are handsome because I am handsome and I’ve worked harder than you to perfect my trade. This doesn’t have to be an adversarial relationship, as you are of course welcome to join Stocklabs for as little as $2 per day and glean off my ideas like a chum fish attached to a great white shark.

Audio version of blog

Long ago when I was a cold caller at a brokerage firm my boss came around to my desk and sat down in front of me. It was about 10pm and I had been smiling and dialing all day and all night. He said to me “I made $85,000 this month and have nothing to do with it. You know how I do this Fly?”

Curious, I eagerly rang back “No, how, please tell me.”

He got up and said to me “because I work smart, not hard, pal” — and then walked away.

At that time I wanted to spring up and decapitate him. But as the years worn by and my own success achieved itself through manners of method, his cocained fueled words that night resonated with me more and more.

People who only work hard have no choice in the matter and are like machines — oiled with coffee and greasy egg sandwiches — whose sole purpose on this planet is to toil.

At the open of trade this morning, I executed my trades and came out the other end +45bps.

Do you know how I did that pal?

Because I worked smart on Friday, not hard, and now I preside before you at your desk to tell you these things because fuck you.

AI video version of blog

When I speak to retards about this subject — they always sight the dollar index against other fiat currencies and saying something weird like “King Dollar.” If you’re familiar with Einstein’s insane theory of relativity you can apply the price of the shit dollar to the price of the shit euro, throw them in front of two speeding trains, and then flush it all into one great big giant toilet bowl.

Like you, I’ve been making money since 2000 and like you I’ve been harangued by the cost of shit going up constantly, save televisions and cheap clothes, while at the same time told “MUHH the dollar is strong.”

SIR

Some stats for your review, from 2000 to present

Dollar Index: FLAT

Average hourly wages are +75%

Average home prices are +162%

Producer Price Index +111%

Gasoline +202%

Health Insurance +230%

College Tuition: +117%

S&P 500: +388%

NASDAQ: +83%

GOLD +254%

Dow Jones +68%

I hope you understand and realize markets had rebounded off the 2002 lows and crashed again in 2008-2009, destroying people in the process. We recovered in 2009 and have been up every year save 2. The markets truly soared under the Trump administration an we’ve been led to believe the NASDAQ is where money should be allocated — thanks to the domination of 7 large tera cap stocks.

But over a longer time frame, as you can see from the statistics above, the $SPY has been the single best place to invest and save yourselves from the scourge of the rapidly depreciating dollar.

The media will have you believe we are in fact “blessed” by the dollar — but this of course isn’t true. If you’re comparing the dollar versus failed civilizations, then yes we are blessed. But America has always been a financial power and our currency has been something of a marvel since the early 1900s. But do not believe for a moment that the dichotomy between wages and the price of everything else is copacetic.

When people refer to the plight of middle class Americans — this is what they’re talking about. If you’ve been smart enough to invest your money and hedge against the decreasing buying power of your money — great. Many government workers and people with pensions have benefited from the rise of markets and it’s good they have that. Could you imagine if markets had not soared since 2000 but was instead flat? Those people would be screwed.

This leads me to a point I’ve made for decades writing on this blog. We might hate the markets now because it is an avatar for a corrupt regime of tyrannical manifestations not seen since Marxist scum swept the planet decades ago. However, it is the only thing we have left here and they will always find a way to support it until the very end. We often say “it’s over” but it’s never really over and as long as these fuckers are breathing — they’ll concoct new schemes and methods to support this system.

Using my writing, I found a decent enough service to subscribe to in order to generate content. Let me know what you think.

I closed the month +0.25% in very risk averse trading. I could’ve spared myself the time and toil by just going on a month sojourn — but time is backward looking and only quitters give up on dreams of achieving success.

The NASDAQ raced lower 5.2% for September — extending the market’s losing streak to 8 weeks.

I am positioned into Monday HEAVILY NET SHORT and truly want you to remember that I said this come Monday. I had a grim vision, a prediction even, of brightly lit fires canvassing the entire market — people foisting themselves through windows without even bothering to open them.

When I was a boy, perhaps 10, I once predicted every single lottery number before it was revealed on the TV. One by one I called out the numbers and was delighted to see that I had predictive powers. After that, I went out to play baseball and later on throw M-80s into manholes to chase the waterbugs and step on them as they scattered for their lives.

I view the market like this, almost all the time. I am going to drop an M-80 into your home and when you come out to scatter about in the chaos — I will step on you.

Very sorry for that visualization — but sometimes I cannot help myself.

Cheers!

I will tell you precisely what is going to happen.

Markets will close out the session weak — because it’s September and fuck you. October will fall upon you like a sack of lead balloons — crushing your wallets and then your spirit. We will McPlunge lower to the tune of 10% and all will appear to be lost. Riots will cascade from the urban centers into rural areas — where BLM activities will spread into corn and wheat fields — rioters sacking tonnes of livestock and herding them back to their dwellings for proper butchering and sale. The wheat and corn will be STRIPPED from the fields and sold back to the govt for large profits.

Everyone else will starve.

Then the Fed will issue a press release to the effect that rates can, in fact, be dropped in the face of unyielding catastrophe in the financial markets. The Treasury will step in to expedite their papering over at the banks and stocks will bottom and then surge into the latter part of October.

All will be well into November, as America girds into large vats of brown crazy and mashed potatoes, celebrating Thanksgiving. Bulls will of course remind the bears of their place and boast about their excellence, coasting through December merrily opening Xmas presents and stocking up on Champagne to usher in 2024.

Then catastrophe will strike markets like a bolt of lightening onto Ben Franklin’s kite. They will reel lower and reel again, and the bears will rise up in force and shit all over the heads of the bulls who lay prostrate on the ground — forlorn and strewn — unable to defend the honor and glory of Wall Street.

The end.