BANKS ARE COLLAPSING AGAIN

It was supposed to be a boolish day — but now we are ENTREATED by another bank collapse. Luckily, or might I say fortunately, I had a 15% UVIX hedge from an hour or so ago. I booked that trade a short while ago for +6.2%. My gains remain constant. My market hand furiously hot.

Under the auspices of a total collapse of the western banking system, you’d be wise, smart even, to own some GLD and BTC. Those two asset classes have proven to be defensive during RISK AVERSE periods, such as RIGHT NOW.

That being said, do not be fooled by the NASDAQ +200. The actual market is only +0.3%, as indicated by the Stocklabs 4000. I am now hedged via DRV and FAZ — and will most likely hold off on any additional hedged until the close.

In short, bulls were TRAPPED but they were armed and now the bears are being picked off one by one.

DEVELOPING…

Another part of trading Fed days I forgot to mention yesterday is the next day, which would be today, the exact opposite usually happens. I use the word “usually” very liberally here and have no data to back me up. It’s just a feeling after many decades of experience. Truth is, I bet I’m wrong about the “usually” part — but it’s important to note that big down days can sometimes be met with an inverse trend day — which if looking at today’s +260 NASDAQ is today.

Have you learned anything since reading me? Of course not. You’re too enamored with yourselves and how great a trader you all are — aren’t you?

This is the point of the day where you might want to place some hedges — but not because you’re bearish but to lock in the days gains.

I am +260bps for the session after realizing very early today was not going to slip away into the clutches of the bears. There were too many growth stocks trending. Right now, however, the bulls are fat and happy and might let profit taking commence before they ramp the close on your faces again.

If you’re net bearish — get the hell out now while you still can. You might take today’s lumps but can you take tomorrow’s?

I had 15% UVIX on top of a 100% long book heading into Fed. I had been perfectly balanced up 1.6% prior to the decision. The Fed hiked and the initial move was up, which I knew was a scam. Powell’s comments were hawkish and down we went. As the session progressed I lost balance since my longs began to outpace my UVIX hedge and I lost about 120bps from the meeting.

I booked $20k in trading profits, via SQQQ, FAZ, and UVIX. Seeing the regionals get hammered, I figured my bias deserved to be bearish with 5 mins left to trade. I was 45% short, bear’d up and eager. However, muscle memory kicked in and I recalled the innumerable Fed days where markets rebounded the next day after some spin.

I closed out most of my shorts, keeping a 10% UVIX just in case.

I did lose some balance in my hedging — but still closed up 43bps on a day that most of you, without doubt, got your brains blown out clean.

All of the smartest men said the Fed would pause, maybe even cut. But they spiked rates another 25bps and spoke hawkishly. Inside Stocklabs, I warned the proles against responding to the initial move. Once again… I was right.

I added to my UVIX position and now sit like a King atop gains of 1.6% — due to highly proficient, highly skilled trading.

You can never trade as good as me — but you can copy me for free inside Stocklabs.

My sense is, auto loans at 20% for sub prime is reason enough to believe in the worst case scenario.

Batten down the hatches for a great doom has been cast.

For the recourd, I hate the Fed and everything is stands for. Some of you might hate it too — but trust me I hate it more. The evil empire only exists due to the banking system and all of its hand wringing. The banks as a cabal are bad enough — but to have a central bank doing fucked up shit like the FOMC is deserving of punishments being doled out.

Alas I am not naive and understand the power of them and know “nothing will happen.” But one can dream. They haven’t figured out how to stop dreaming yet.

Into the FOMC decision, I have a 10% hedge in UVIX — because any chicanery will be met with profound put buying protection.

I had hedged coming into today, which were sold as per usual. I am now +55bps waiting for the ax to fall.

I am deeply afflicted by allergies and do not have the focus to write a good blog. My condensed thoughts are as follows:

Market direction is bullish — but that can change if the Fed says hawkish things tomorrow.
Market can weaken if rates go up
Markets will prefer NO RATE hikes and confirmed pause

Whether this is good for the average Joe is immaterial. Since when does the market care about the average Joe? We have strong homebuilders, tech, and cheap energy. By the looks of it, barring a bank disaster, we have all of the possibilities of seeing a “soft landing.”

Naturally I do not want to see it and would prefer to see it burn. But as of now, we are bullish.

+204bps for the session, closed with hedges just in case.

Observe these two account — Fly Holdings is my tactical trading and the SL Quant is based off the Stocklabs algos allocated once per month. Fly Holdings also uses quant picks but using the weekly technical scores instead of monthly. For the most part, the picks are nearly identical. But look at the returns — one is +0.6% and the other is +32%

How? Why?

Understand something and know whom you are reading? All of those gains were done via using margin — bulking up on longs or more importantly hedging with 3x ETfs. While the world got their brains blown out in March, Le Fly extended his cock another 6%. And that’s the secret to investment success: you have to be me.

Sure, you can try and you might even outpace me for brief periods of time. But in the long run, like in most things in life — the cream rises to the top.

We have a relief rally underway and the perception is — the GREAT BANKING CRISIS IS OVER.

This might upset you to learn — but I am now BULLISH. This of course is subject to change on a whim and you should always be prepared for additional shoes to drop. However retarded the govt plan is, the notion of BACKSTOPPING ALL DEPOSITS is causing folks to froth from the mouth and buy stocks.

Tomorrow the Fed might do 25bps and indicate they’ll fuck off for a brief break. OR, they might raise 50bps and skull fuck bulls. TBH: it’s a very pivotal day, tomorrow is.

I am +2.1% and fully prepared to hedge a little to keep these gains. I am not a greedy man and accept my +32% YTD returns are mine, rightfully and lawfully earned. No one can take them away, since I deserve them and make them honestly. To keep them, I am willing to kill. Do not get in the way of my returns: you’ve been warned.

In summary, WE (the royal we) ARE BULLISH and look forward to more.

I had hedged mid-afternoon in order to lockdown my gains and only ended up wasting my time and money. The market doesn’t want to go lower — just like Russia doesn’t want to stop attacking the Ukraine. You should know what to expect, since FRC knifing lower by 40% for the day barely scared people out from their SCHW positions.

When it comes to these things, I tend to fall back on the idea that markets are the best barometer of risk. If there was fear, stocks would’ve been lower. Since they’re higher, markets have concluded risk to be minimal. While this will annoy you, especially my BEAR-TARD cadre of reader, understand that I am a person without a nation and have no pledges of loyalty to any group. I am independent thinking and will die that way.

Perhaps tomorrow we might enjoy some more downside action. But as of right now, this close, we are going the fuck higher.

PS: I hope I eat my words.

What are my qualification? All time motherfucking highs.

The systemic portion of the bank crisis is over — but the banks are still un-investable. THEY are not interested in equity or COCO bond holders — just the system itself. They will ensure the plumbing is clean and things are working — but will not think twice about zeroing out FRC in the process. Because of this, bank stocks should only be traded quickly and probably not at all. Other sectors are subject to economic conditions — which may in fact prove to be even worse than the recent banking scare.

I am 100% long again after my weekly quant allocation, +126bps for the session. In case you’re wondering, yes that is a new recourd high for me. Whilst your gains might be impressive — mine are better.

Enjoy yourselves and find solace in the fact your government is looking out for the plumbing of the banks to make sure your deposits are safe.