Fly Buys: $ZEN, $HUBS

You don’t have to buy these two stocks — but you should be fully long here — correlated with the market in stocks that go up when people are bullish. These two names, ZEN and HUBS, represent the very best in SAAS — a software industry brimming with growth and optimism.

I sold both of these stocks much lower — but that doesn’t stop me from delving, mind you, back in for the big run.

IMPORTANT NOTE OUT BY WEDBUSH THIS MORNING REGARDING TESLA.

WEDBUSH: “in our 20 years of covering tech stocks on the Street we view this quarter as one of top debacles we have ever seen while Musk & Co. in an episode out of the Twilight Zone act as if demand and profitability will magically return to the $TSLA story. We are throwing in the white towel on the name as we downgrade our rating .. reflecting our reduced numbers for the coming years and our loss of confidence in the story with no pilot on the plane to navigate through this severe demand turbulence.”

Cuts to neutral.

Overly dramatic horseshit and I’d like to remind people in the business that Wedbush isn’t a real firm and is a joke and the analysts who work there aren’t intelligent and their executives are giant faggots pretending to be relevant.

Case in point: TSLA is basically unchanged.

The entire move lower in the Dow this morning is due to MMM’s miss. Who cares, really?

On the Nasdaq side, things look great — thanks to FB and MSFT. Here are some random news items that caught my attention.

These fuckers are positioning themselves nicely. Stock could run from here.

NEW AGE BEVERAGES CORPORATION (NBEV) announced the global launch of their CBD product portfolio, with the unveiling of their line and shipment of their CBD creams, lotions, and oils to be sold worldwide under its Health Sciences Division.

This complete asshole from BH is at it again. If you’re unfamiliar with Biglari, the young punk who thinks he’s Warren Buffett trying to takeover CBRL, a far superior franchise, in a hostile manner — it’s hilarious. This morning they’re demanding a special divvy.

Cracker Barrel: Biglari Capital affirms 14.7% active stake, sends letter to the Board demanding the company pay a special dividend of at least $3.75 per share and agree to meet face-to-face to explore a ‘potential, mutually advantageous transaction’

Big tech news

Microsoft on call guided Q4 rev in-line after blowing out Q3 estimates; guided double-digit revenue and operating income for FY20

Bad tech news

Xilinx downgraded to Hold at Needham on potential multiple compression risk (139.72)
Needham downgrades XLNX to Hold from Buy. XLNX’s F4Q19 results were in-line to slightly better than Street estimates. However while F1Q20 revenue guidance was above Street consensus, GM guidance was well below the Street’s estimates. Solid F4Q19 results were driven by continued strength in the Wireless Comms business, which accounted for all of the F4Q19 growth in Comms as the Wired business was slightly down Q/Q. While Comms growth has been impressive, firm was concerned XLNX’s valuation multiple may compress due to risks including a deceleration in Wireless Comms reflecting the encroachment of baseband ASICs, the potential for inventory corrections should 5G deployments outside of Korea be delayed and the decline in GM in F1H20. As a result, they are downgrading XLNX shares to Hold from Buy and moving to the sidelines until the multiple compression risks can be mitigated.

The XLNX news is a bummer — but I’m not sure it means much, unless other semis come out and warn. Judging by the market’s behavior, I don’t think earnings will be bad this quarter. I’ll be fishing for trading ideas.

This is a battle the bears on TSLAQ cannot win. Elon is flying fucking rockets into outerspace, creating silent leaf blowers, blow torches — things of that nature. His cars make other cars look like horses and you’re shorting the stock — because you don’t like his tweets and you’re forever butthurt because his IQ is 100 points higher than yours.

CNBC sucking Tesla-Bear dick.

After hours, Tesla didn’t even come close to matching earnings, yet the stock is unchanged. This is equal to getting kicked down a flight of stairs, but first someone snipping your balls off with a pair of pliers.

Tesla misses by $1.93, misses on revs; guides significantly reduced Q2 net loss, below estimates; expects to return to profitability in Q3; reaffirms FY19 production, expects positive OCF less cap-ex every quarter; unveils Model Y pricing

You can cite all of the fucked up tweets you want regarding Musk, and even bitch and moan about top level employees leaving and nothing will change. The stock isn’t going much lower and likely to go higher. You are literally betting against the man likely to build a fucking time machine. When your net worth hits $00.00 for placing this erroneous bet, don’t ever forget that Le Fly tried to save you.

I’ve been busy today decorating my house for a birthday party. I see my oil stocks got fucking wrecked. This is typical and I always expect to lose money in my energy bets. Nevertheless, I’m not at my stops yet and there’s nothing to do until my losses become untenable. Truth is, oil has been jimmying higher at the same time chemical stocks decreasing, which is odd since it implies businesses do not foresee an uptick in end user demand to marry the sudden spike in crude.

For the day, I edge-lorded down by 0.9%, Quant sharply lower by 0.77% thanks to the bashing in of the head in LRN. This is typical and again I expect to undergo some setbacks following a frenetic rise. I will get back to trading more actively tomorrow. As you know, I was down south for the past 5 days, cavorting and sashaying in search of a new plantation.

Today’s only red flag is the move lower in crude stocks. We cannot allow this to continue for too much longer, so you’ll want to keep an eye on that. One more leg lower and I’ll be stopped out of 3 or 4 freshly purchased stocks.

The US 10yr is down by 5 bps and oil stocks are getting hammered. The broader indices are butting up against some resistance here after enjoying fresh record highs. Should you be concerned?

You’d have to be a complete jackass to worry about the downside, just one day after a fresh record high was had. Might I suggest you go shoot a game of pool, or perhaps a game of bridge? There is nothing to see here at all and your time would be best served doing something else.

You can’t buy and you can’t sell. Too early for anything at all.

As for me, I’m planning my daughter’s bday and will be out and about being a Northern Master.

Most of my stocks are down — sending my trading account down 1%. I am being held up by grittier stocks, tough stock, such as TUFN, and flagrantly fouled by the oils. You’d think oil stocks would jerk off higher after the OXY bid for APC — but no. The Stock Gods are perverted and mean spirited and always aim to rape the Third Estate.

I’m kind of liking PD here — but the volume is thin. However, I’d be willing to saw my own arm off if it wasn’t higher 30 days from now.

Net net — shut the fuck up and go out and enjoy the genteel climes.

On 4/12, CVX and APC agreed to merge, a $33 billion deal that made waves in the Permian Basin. This morning OXY stepped into the fray, upped the offer by 20%, and told CVX to fuck off.

“Anadarko has great assets,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in a interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box ” on Wednesday. “We are the right acquirer … because we can get the most out of the shale.”

The OXY deal is rumored to be 40% cash, which is much greater than CVX’s 25% cash offer. Apparently APC was in negotiations with OXY during the time CVX made its bid — but decline due to the dilutive nature of of the deal for OXY’s shareholders. In other words, they’d have to issue a fuck load of shares in order to acquire APC and they weren’t interested in any of that.

OXY is saying this is a friendly deal — but I doubt it. This new deal is valued at $57 billion.

We started the day with a hankering for some southern breakfast — so we took a sojourn into the engine of the confederacy at Raleigh. It was a local hipster coffee shoppe, with outdoor seating — hipster lights swinging from the establishment — hipsters with tattoos manning the tables outside. Every two or three tables was an elderly couple, or middled age, all dressed finely and speaking with a slow drawl and a gentile southern cadence. I ordered a fucking Italian sandwich with a cappuccino — savaged it down my gullet — and then got the hell out of there. Before I left, however, my wild coyote picked a fight with a baby pitbull who was also there enjoying a hard bone and the southern climes. My coyote, it should be noted, is extremely anti-social.

We took a local road on our way back, the Jefferson Davis highway — a mangled zig zag of hard molasses broken up by a rural landscape dotted with trailer homes and small ranches. As I sped down this road in my fancy Mercedes truck, sticking out like a soar Yankee thumb, I was certain a Tom Sawyer type lad would jump out barefooted with dirt on his face to throw a turnip at me as I traveled heavily throughout the area. I was disappointed to find ZERO confederate flags, just a collection of front lawn junk yards and American flags idling in the dead humid heat of dust and boredom.

I quickly sped up and through Virginia — again on local roads — a local highway shaped like a madman was twisting sweet water taffy — incongruent with the town planning. Roads split in two suddenly. Small houses were dotted across high velocity roads with old broken down gas station throw rugs splayed out across 19th century shacks. I passed a place of no significance called Pepper Mill Creek and it stood out only because the area reminded me of something that might’ve been ground out of a pepper mill by God and forgotten for a thousand years.

We decided to take a pit stop at Fredericksburg — probably my favorite southern city — the apex of southern pride and accomplishment — the place that defined what it meant to repel northern aggression and massacre thousands at a ridiculous wall because of idiotic union command. We parked right next to George Washington’s mother’s house and my coyote took a dump right in front of it. It’s a lowly shack, likely domiciled by an insane woman and I didn’t want to pick up the excrement — but my wife insisted upon it. I grabbed an iced latte at Hyperion Espresso — the only coffee house of note there and enjoyed the views, interrupted only every 2 minutes by my coyote who attempted to lunge at people on motorcycles or random strangers passing by. Whenever a dog happened to sojourn our way — the coyote lost her mind and acted like she was infected with the rabies.

My wife and kids went to an Italian restaurant, but I wanted to roam the streets and ended up in an olde bookstore, small, but comfortable — decorated with walls of books, English styled furniture and old rugs atop of very ancient wood that creaked and bowed and felt like I’d step on the wrong piece that would soon give way and drop me into a cob-webbed cellar. I spied a Hemingway book about his letters, opened the book midway and saw one addressed to F. Scott Fitzgerald — instantly closed it and then bought it.

I then joined my family at the Italian restaurant — but before that I was accosted by immoral youths acting terribly — and then I saw run down southern men with thick accents smoking cigarettes and baking in the sun without cause.

At the eatery I sat next to a cosmopolitan couple who harangued the waitress over their wine selection.

“Should we get the Il Morono white or perhaps the Vincenziorioao rose?”

“I don’t know hon — what do you think? So hard.”

“Excuse me, waitress — we’re not sure if we want the Igliomrani Chardonnay — we were just at the Vineyard — so good — but not that much of a fan.”

“Oh, ok — but we do have the Rose too, if you want to try.”

“What do you think hon?”

“Not sure. I don’t think I want to take the risk. Let’s just get the Chianti by Gaboulianai”

“Perfect, right, ok.”

“Great.”

“So good.”

“I know…right.”

“Good call.”

“Thanks hon. Perfect. So good. We learned so much in Italy — so epic.”

I wanted to grab a knife and execute both of them — but my wife kept looking at me in a nervous way as if to tell me “don’t you dare pick up that knife and kill those people in front of your children”, so I refrained.

The rest of the trip was mostly uneventful — I-95 droning action with bad music and nonsensical chatter, interrupted by wonderful songs that you hear only once every 10 years or so and incoherent laughter and quick stops for snacks and urination disposal.

I’m back now — ready to drive a dagger into the heart of this bull market — but fully prepared and positioned for a continuation of this glorious bull market.

I see markets are doing just fine without me — edge-lording higher and what not. Now I have the horrible task of driving back home — 8 hours of non-stop grueling repetition, only interrupted by the occasional traffic jam. When I enter DC, I am pretty sure I’ll hate life — since that God forsaken place is always jammed tight with cars.

About mid-way, I’ll stop at Richmond for more BBQ and stuff my gills with meats of dead animals, recharge, and then continue. But before I can do any of that, mind you, I’ll need to make a few quick stops around here — placate the masses, and get a bite to eat. One of the great things about living in a densely populated area, like The Research Triangle, is the amount of quality restaurants one could visit. Where I live now, there are only a handful of reliable places and the high end spots are a good distance away. I know that living to eat is awfully stupid — but while driving around and sight seeing — there’s not much else to do to past the time.

As for stocks — they’re trending higher and nothing can stop them. All you have to do is place money into a diversified basket of stocks and then sit back and watch them increase in value. As long as oil is grinding higher, edging towards $70 WTI — all is well and good. I suspect, however, oil could start to harangue the consumer at around $85. But by that time, we’ll all be so rich and fat here, none of it will matter anymore. Our oil stocks will careen higher and all of the other ancillary plays, your little distractions and river boat gambles, will soar towards levels not thought possible.

Ok…heading out now. Wish me luck.

Good day.

Today I wore a bespoke blue stripes on white business shirt — crossed with light khakis. I was all about business today and I didn’t bother removing my sunglasses for the entire day — even indoors. The southern folks here were milling about their day — eating grits, slabs of pork, having a general time about their existence here — calm and poised.

Over at the local golf course, I spied several dozen well cigar’d gets swinging wildly and flagrantly into the wind — not really trying to do well, but instead crush the ball with every fiber of their existence. We once again frequented the college towns of UNC and Duke, for reason which now escape me. I am beginning to think I don’t have much say in the matter and just drive to wherever people want to go. While in Chapel Hill, my son ate a grease filled chicken cheese and biscuit from a placed called “Time-Out.” It’s a 24/7 greasy spoon that has served college idiots in the area for generations. In Princeton, we have a similar greasy spoon called “Hoagie Haven.” Painting a broad brush, I can tell you that Chapel Hill is a disgraceful and degenerate place to live. It’s a pure college town, minus the dignity, history, and honor of a town like Princeton. Over at Durham, where Duke is located, it’s a mixed bag of sea-shells. Not for me.

My favorite parts of this area are in North West Cary and part of Apex. The builders have gone absolutely fucking nuts down here and are building houses faster than people can fill them. I don’t quite understand what the fuck is going on here, really. I’ve never seen entire communities being built like this, all without land — just large well built homes with beautiful mill work at very low prices. One of the developments I visited near Apex, which has a brand new HS opening this September, was so perfect I didn’t exactly feel comfortable with it. It was a scene out of Mayberry — stepford wives with strollers, men with lawnmowers, and kids playing in the streets, amidst a backdrop of perfectly manicured lawns and brand new homes — all affordable and connected to the city sewer. I kept thinking to myself “something isn’t right here”, but I couldn’t find anything with the time available to me.

The area is brimming with well healed folks who are employed in tech and biotech — many from India and China — which is rapidly changing the demographics of the area. Quite honestly, and this could be me being aspirational and possibly naive, this does look like the very best place to possibly live in America. Naturally, you can find a more aesthetically pleasing geographic location on the coasts, but you’ll pay $700-2,000 per sq ft for that. Here you can get 4,000 sq ft at less than $150 per sq ft. I’d say roughly 70% of the homes in West Cary are new — which is astonishing when considering the scale of homes there — well into the thousands. The fucking builders have just about run out of land in Cary and are now continuing their rampage up north in Morrisville and down south in Apex and Holly Springs.

Tomorrow I’ll be forced against my will to frequent the local fucking mall and I’m hoping to get back on the road by 1pm. Every single trip I’ve taken before — took much longer than planned. I do not want to get home at 3am — but something tells me it’ll happen anyway.

Dinner will be served early in the land of Jefferson Davis — BBQ brisket naturally alongside a banana pudding and perhaps a side of collared greens and sweet potatoes. I’ve been eating like a complete barrel ass and that will not change during tomorrow’s parlay and exit from the south — en route to the cold gray lands of the frigid and austere north.