iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,615 Blog Posts

Momentum Stalled; Time to Panic Yet?

The US 10yr is down by 5 bps and oil stocks are getting hammered. The broader indices are butting up against some resistance here after enjoying fresh record highs. Should you be concerned?

You’d have to be a complete jackass to worry about the downside, just one day after a fresh record high was had. Might I suggest you go shoot a game of pool, or perhaps a game of bridge? There is nothing to see here at all and your time would be best served doing something else.

You can’t buy and you can’t sell. Too early for anything at all.

As for me, I’m planning my daughter’s bday and will be out and about being a Northern Master.

Most of my stocks are down — sending my trading account down 1%. I am being held up by grittier stocks, tough stock, such as TUFN, and flagrantly fouled by the oils. You’d think oil stocks would jerk off higher after the OXY bid for APC — but no. The Stock Gods are perverted and mean spirited and always aim to rape the Third Estate.

I’m kind of liking PD here — but the volume is thin. However, I’d be willing to saw my own arm off if it wasn’t higher 30 days from now.

Net net — shut the fuck up and go out and enjoy the genteel climes.

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7 comments

  1. bidens hands

    Lord Fly,

    Please bestow upon us your thoughts towards INGN.

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  2. numbersgame

    ‘You’d have to be a complete jackass to worry about the downside, just one day after a fresh record high was had.” 100% agreed, for the near-term time frame.

    Here’s the kicker: the markets are off by only 1/10%. Why is the word panic even entering anyone’s vocabulary today?

    It has been noted by others that reatil investors have still not boarded the train sicne December. It will be intersting to see how they react to any real test, We’ll likely go to 3000, and then back down to the 2800-2850 level and then see if peopel panic.

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    • alty

      This guy claims retail investors are euphoric. Where are you getting your info from?

      https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2019/04/22/sentiment/

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      • numbersgame

        Keep in mind his comment is based on what his buddy says:
        “Retail is most. Bullsih I’ve seen in my career. I don’t care what fund flow data says.”

        So it seems his buddy is conceding that fund flow data shows that retail is *not* bullish. Why the contradiction?

        Either:
        1) His opinion that retail IS bullish is based on a tiny sample: his clients. This is anecdotal evidence.*
        2) It could be possible the majority of retail investors are bullish, but if the wealthier ones are bearsih, then retail fund flows will still be low/negative/bearish overall

        * “Lest you think this is once again just anecdotal evidence, I point you back to Jason Goepfert’s great site SentimenTrader.com ”

        Forget what others think and look at SentimenTrader’s “Dumb Money” indicator yourself with a close eye. In 2009, “Dumb Money” is continually maxing out according to their indicator. In fact, excluding the current last few weeks, 2009 has the 4 highest readings in the last 10 years. Do you really beleive that “retail investors” and “dumb money” were gung-ho for stocks in 2009?

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  3. numbersgame

    Bulls do have a concern that i noticed today: it seems that most of the market (includign myself) have forgetten about Small Caps. Unlike its big brothers, the Russell 2000 is about 9% off it’s ATHs. While this isn’t a huge concern in itself, it shoudl be very concernign to the BUlls that they haven’t broken through the 1600 resistance level yet.

    So for Bulls, it seems this give you two choices:
    1) Cautious approach: stay conservative with stocks until 1600 is broken, tested, and held.
    2) For the truly optimistic: overweight small caps, as their performance shoudl cathc up if this bull market still has legs.

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    • ferd

      Bah. Look at the dollar. An index which is heavy with domestic producers is no longer relevant and need not confirm the large cap move. As long as outlanders know that we’ll kill them if they do not slave for the dollars we print, all is well. The strength in the dollar confirms all is well. What could go wrong.

      Our job as Americans is to consume; their job is to work on the cheap so that our non-Russell importers can have fatter margins.

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      • numbersgame

        Ok, quick lesson:
        1) Dolalr strength helps importers (makes their raw materials and inventories cheaper) and hurts exporters (makes their end prodcuts relatively more expensive)
        2) Small caps are much more likely to be net importers than net exporters
        3) If you have an overseas production facility with overseas customers, then dolalr strength doesn’t affect your sales *quantitty*. However, the sales numbers – when reported in USD – will obviously be lower.
        4) Large caps have large portions of their business overseas.

        In other words, dollar strength is hleping IWM and hurting SPY.

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