I see markets are doing just fine without me — edge-lording higher and what not. Now I have the horrible task of driving back home — 8 hours of non-stop grueling repetition, only interrupted by the occasional traffic jam. When I enter DC, I am pretty sure I’ll hate life — since that God forsaken place is always jammed tight with cars.
About mid-way, I’ll stop at Richmond for more BBQ and stuff my gills with meats of dead animals, recharge, and then continue. But before I can do any of that, mind you, I’ll need to make a few quick stops around here — placate the masses, and get a bite to eat. One of the great things about living in a densely populated area, like The Research Triangle, is the amount of quality restaurants one could visit. Where I live now, there are only a handful of reliable places and the high end spots are a good distance away. I know that living to eat is awfully stupid — but while driving around and sight seeing — there’s not much else to do to past the time.
As for stocks — they’re trending higher and nothing can stop them. All you have to do is place money into a diversified basket of stocks and then sit back and watch them increase in value. As long as oil is grinding higher, edging towards $70 WTI — all is well and good. I suspect, however, oil could start to harangue the consumer at around $85. But by that time, we’ll all be so rich and fat here, none of it will matter anymore. Our oil stocks will careen higher and all of the other ancillary plays, your little distractions and river boat gambles, will soar towards levels not thought possible.
Ok…heading out now. Wish me luck.
Good day.
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Doc Fly, the Edge Lord
Here we are, SPY at all time highs breaking above the early October high. Seems like just yesterday the beartards here were predicting the crash of a lifetime. Who shorted into the hole in December? LOL.
You blew your load a little early, since both the intraday and closing highs (from *September*) are still intact, but maybe your bold prediction will play out.
Do you have any idea why long bonds are still much higher than they were that time, even as the FED conceded to the market’s demands? Probably doesn’t matter, because the outlook today is much better than it was in September, right?
Salty…
Admittedly, we are probably still some time out from a econmic recession.
Due to the timing of the Mueller report, the Retail Sales report was underreported, but it was quite good and showed a turnaround from the bearish trend:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-retail-sales-labor-market-data-paint-upbeat-economic-picture-idUSKCN1RU1FY
On a Technical Basis, obviously new closing highs are also good news. We’ll probably see a return to dip-buying, as the Oct-Dec 2018 dip will be forgotten as quickly as the Jan-Mar ’28 dip was. NFLX and unprofitable IPOs are agian gettign frothy.
Odds are good that we test 3000 next, just 3% higher, but how much higher will we go? Historically, bond traders lead the market. The demand for bonds (ie, droppign rates) continues to increase, and the ontl times it turned around was with dramatic macro changes (ie, the trifecta sweep of corporate-friendly Republicans and the 2018 Tax Refrom). A no-real-changes China deal + drastically reduced tariffs is already priced in (IMO), so I don’t think that will move the needle.
This is what is so nice about bonds: you don’t really have to time anything or pick a peak, you just have to beleive that the FED will drop rates in the next recesssion. People looking at 4% interest rates are missing the big picture: the principal gain of long bonds is very interst rate-sensistive. I’m expecting ~6-10% overall annualized RoR on my bonds.
Guess what?
Powell said hikes would be more pinned to retail sales on 60 Minutes
Game set match
Integrative bears knew that the powers that be (fed proxies and apparatus outfitted after lehman) had effective control of the indexes 6+ years ago (of course)
that said
22x earnings
shiller pe reflecting full fledged boombust bubble
2.19 price sales
inevitable
outcome
pt barnum
suckers
games being played
by those powers
that be solely
continue
Showtime!
If you really hate DC traffic, take US 301 from I-95 exit 104 (VA 207) north of Richmond. You will not save any time, and GPS navigation is recommended. But it will be a change of pace from DC gridlock.
Plus, you’ll get to drive by where John Wilkes Booth left the mortal coil.
Next time, just time your departure so that you aren’t in DC from 3pm-7pm, or even drive at night