Cowardly Rally

We are giving it up fast here. Should the market reverse lower, things could get ugly. Or, people will anticipate that eventuality, start shorting stocks, allowing Ben Bernanke to work his magic and squeeze the shit out of them in pleasant afternoon trading. Either way, we need a 1% move in the Dow and we need that shit now.

Regardless, I am overweight refiners, now making up about 55% of my holdings. I do so knowing the risks associated with concentrating positions. There comes a time, every so often, when risk is needed. For me, this is that occasion.

Look for WNR to rally hard, as that WTI-Brent spread widens, now more than $15 per barrel.

It’s POMO, all day, every day. I warned you to “remember the clam.” Instead of heeding my dire warnings, you shot yourself in the face with a howitzer. Good going pal.

I expect grand things to happen at the opening of trade. I anticipate WNR to move higher, alongside my other stocks. I anticipate to make a great deal of money.

One final note for you WNR lovers: the only way this company fucks up current spreads is through idiotic hedging. Last quarter the company hedged 10% of its production at $16.50, on crack 321. They put up about 40-45mill in collateral.

The upside to the story is their idled refinery at Yorktown, which held over $22 mill in refined crude in reserves. Since then, prices have soared, so I expect that inventory to be worth more. Two things happen at Yorktown: 1. they sell it to another company and use some of the proceeds to pay down debt. 2. They restart the facility and take advantage of current spreads.

One thing you need to know, during Jan-Feb, WNR refineries were knocked offline due to bad weather. However, since then, they’ve been operating at full capacity. Earnings should reflect that. Their debt is not an issue now, with big payments scheduled in 2014 and 2017.

So, what we have here is the best refinery play in the United States, a company with full access to cheap light sweet crude from Cushings, the best play for taking advantage of the spread between Brent and WTI crude.

Target: $24

Using some of my new fundamental search tools, I created the following screen.

Earnings growth using High end estimates versus mean: over 10%
Earnings YOY % Change, relative to next year: over 10%
Upward earnings revisions for next Qt.: over 1
Revenue YOY growth, relative to next year: over 20%
FPE, using high end estimates: any
Short %: any

The results:

You have no idea how bad my day was, separate from the market. It has been a series of small cuts that has led to my overwhelming feelings of rage, boiling up inside of my guts, permeating through my black heart and up to my brain. To make matters worse, the DICK SUCKERS AT OXYVLOVCLKX go lower every.fucking.day.

The only things that I like right now, aside from my family, is MWW and WNR. I want to take my computer and attach nuclear warheads to it, then mail it to the other dick suckers at HPQ.

In closing, all I need to show you is this.

Do not comment on this thread, else I will find you and rip the skin from your face, then stomp out your skeleton.

I sold out of some bullshit stocks and added to my monstrous WNR.

Disclaimer: If you buy WNR because of this post, your fellow share holders will take up the avocation of crack cocaine smoking. And, you may lose money.

I’m not going to jump to conclusions and declare a top. The fact of the matter is, oil is correcting after a monster leg up and Alcoa is fucking up the metals, like always. Plus, the market like to ebb and flow between 12,000-12,500. Before I start liquidating my holdings, I need to see more carnage.

You know what is down, which is pretty much everything. But there are some outliers, like the airlines—called out yesterday by ChessnWine (AMR) inside 12631. For those of you not subscribed to Chess and RC for a mere $20 something per month, you are missing out huge. They are money.

Additionally, WMT, PG, HD, KKR, MON, MAC, NFLX, AKAM, FDX, UNP, TM, ZUMZ, ARO and TGT all stand out to me due to unusual strength in a bad tape. It is a pastiche of stocks, with a common denominator of benefiting from lower input prices, namely cotton and oil. I cannot tell you why KKR and NFLX are up, other than the fact that fund managers are desperate to park cash.

Bonds are up today; but the dollar is down. I must say, as bad as this tape looks, I am not scared. Perhaps I have too much money in the safe; but this tape is screaming “short squeeze” and is one press release away from punting the bears into outer space. Sure, you can listen to the zerohedgers, who only paint a story with a black brush, while sipping on a mug filled with black smoke. However, last I checked, this motherfucker of a market has been fucking mothers now for 3 years. I declare, there is a statute of limitations on your double dip calls of lunacy. The news cannot be worse, yet here we are within striking distance of recent highs.

Well, the earnings season has kicked off and I expect better than estimated results, across the board. There will be some pitfalls, as always. But the general consensus, whether you like it or not, is up.

On trying days like this, it’s important to remember what got us to this point. Do not forget the reason why corn, sugar and oil are “expensive as fuck” and why gold/silver jargon is all the rage at NYC cocktail parties. As you look at AA ticking lower and the perspiration in your palms increases, remember what the clam is and how his hydraulic, pimp’d out, car “swaggers” into oncoming traffic, effectively “mushroom clouding” all those who get in his way.

Ben Bernanke is a great American and an even greater citizen of the world.

Having said that, I’d rather gorge my eyes out with a spork and stir fry my retina, than buy more stocks down here. All I have is 10% cash. I will not use said cash on such a minor dip. I reserve such cash for catastrophic one off events, or computer driven anomalies. However, I realize some of you are cash rich and very much interested in buying dips, like every asshole should.

With cash, I’d seriously look towards the refiners down here. I am a broken record; that’s okay. Crack spreads are another 5% this morning, to $26.44. Are you fucking kidding me? Do you realize how insane that is? The refiners are RAPING America and getting away with it, sort of. In my opinion, the time is NOW to bulk the fuck up on these bad boys, into May earnings, with VLO first slated to report on 4/26. Should they disappoint with Q2 guidance, as God and Santa Claus are my witnesses, “The Fly” will get in his hot air balloon and take that fucker into outer space, never to be seen or heard from again.

Ladies and Gentlemen of free America,

You need to take out your blue blazers and put them on, for this market is about to get the Thanksgiving kicked out of it. As we speak, Senator Jakegint is cutting back on household expenses, in anticipation of demonstrative losses. From what I have gathered through iBC’s Security Apparatus, Jakegint has stockpiled three months supply of tv dinners and Woodshedder has secured one year’s worth of pork belly rations.

This distresses me a great deal.

Asia is getting put in its place tonight and Godzilla has emerged from the Sea of Japan and is now stomping out buildings and eating people like candy. The middle east is “going Hitler” on its citizens and NATO is busy sending emails to one another in Libya.

Rumours of a “double dip” of sorts has appeared in all of the popular trade journals and Chinese CEO’s are closet homosexual/terrorists, operating here in the US to pilfer our dumbest investors for the benefit of The Communist Red Fuckers from CHINA (TCRFC).

I’ve done the very best I can with the tools available to me. I’ve all but put the entirety of my sanity and chips into refinery stocks; yet they still trade lower because when the Earth is vacated of human life, gasoline sales will plummet.

Having said that, I tend to act against my better judgement. I’m heading off to Japan now, where I intend to slay Godzilla with a gravity hammer. After I am done, I will return to the states for a snack, then proceed to catapult diseased corpses into enemy cities.

Carnage is taking place in the oil markets today, as men with exceptionally small brains fail to see the forest through the dense trees. More specifically, midgets in space outfits are selling refiners, ad hoc, despite the profit margins for said refiners going through the roof over the past two days.

Get this: crack spreads were up 5.5% on Friday and another 3% today. For the first time in months, there is a divergence between the price of refinery stocks and spreads. More importantly, you fuckers seem to believe a drop in crude equates bad times for refiners: WRONG. It’s all about the spread. Look at WTI vs Brent today. WTI is dropping harder and faster, which widens an already profitable situation for a company like WNR. In short, this short term pain will be rewarded with a “fuck you, you’re dead” short squeeze. We’re coiling back here and when the catapults are released, diseased bodies of bearshitters will be launched into the cities of those who bet again us.

WNR vs Crack Spread

Aside from that, the market looks like shit. The Cramer pump of MWW has worn off and OXY is getting punched in the cock. All laughing aside, I am getting boiled here, down 2% for the day.

However, for those of you mocking men of my stature and standing for buying dips: need I remind you of recent history? Ben Bernanke will smoke you inside of his tightly woven philly blunt. As we speak, Ben is watching CNBC and dropping his blunt ashes into an ashtray made from $1,000 bills, saying “I’m gonna get those bitches soon.”

You’ve been warned.

I am still watching shit melt down to a cinder in slow motion, in case you were wondering. Right about now I have a date with a certain Starbucks, interested in their dopio offerings. I will have you know, I visit Starbucks, in favor of Dunkin’ Donuts, so that I can walk around with that awesome cup. It’s a great status symbol you know.

Developing…