We are giving it up fast here. Should the market reverse lower, things could get ugly. Or, people will anticipate that eventuality, start shorting stocks, allowing Ben Bernanke to work his magic and squeeze the shit out of them in pleasant afternoon trading. Either way, we need a 1% move in the Dow and we need that shit now.
Regardless, I am overweight refiners, now making up about 55% of my holdings. I do so knowing the risks associated with concentrating positions. There comes a time, every so often, when risk is needed. For me, this is that occasion.
Look for WNR to rally hard, as that WTI-Brent spread widens, now more than $15 per barrel.
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I knew this rally would melt-down…it is, quite literally, all goldman sachs fault.
Into the breach with our WNRs held high!
I love crack (spreads)
Semis – about time they joined the friggin party…
I would appreciate the top-line oilfield service companies to get their shit together soon. SLB and BHI are pissing me off.
I hear that Po… SLB is annoying…
I love the conviction and portfolio concentration, very new-Fly.
The plutocratic “Bordeaux Fly” hath whispered to the clergy and they are out to envelope the heathens and punish them with the will and fury of the most pernicious tempest.
Nice words Heilige.
Spreading that crack all over the place today. Up another 5% as of now. This shit is crazy.
Just re-loaded on WNR with the only winning trader I have ever witnessed on the internet.
Clearly you don’t read JakeGint’s blog then.
Don’t need to.
You have not seen Tim Knight either? His triple short calls for the last 24mths have been amazing!
I don’t read blogs by fags.
Are you liable to libel?
Your picture is lame.
Did I call those bank earnings last Friday? Any significant recovery has to be led by banks.
BAC on Friday
C on Monday
If BAC beats on Friday then we will see Donkey Kong himself at the cocaine party.
Big ‘if’ there GM.
Agreed… IF.
ALL IN baby. WNR is POWERFUL.
I guess the Euro-Weenies were caught short after yesterday, and now they have finished covering.
wnr 50 cents off high… tough
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQ_13k9f4a0 Connect the dots.
WNR pissed it all away…wtf
I demand a refund from Ben Bernanke. This market is toasted. It wants to go down.
My ginormous gains have turned into deplorable losses…shocking, really.
This type of action is seriously worrying. I should have bought tons of hedges this morning…wtf
there appears to be something wrong….
why would refiners be moving with overall market … spreads should be only thing that matters ??
Because Barry Sotoro aka Mr. Hussein is going to announce something negative and has already tipped a few of his puppet masters. Merely a guess.
Investors are weary. You are correct fine sir, however weary investors are inhibiting this thing from taking off! Soon enough we will all be happy with our swelling wnr’s!
this guy is looking for sub 1200 on the s&p sometime soon.
http://www.marketanthropology.com/2011/04/negative-divergence.html
We got a good WNR earnings estimate bump for 2011 from $1.77 to $2.00 in last 30 days and .70 to $2.00 over the last 90 days. It would be interesting to know what crack spread # the analysts are using to arrive at that 2011 yearly estimate?
CS is using $12.50.
That’s why WNR’s current impotence is so unnerving.
if people are using WNR as a hedge as suggested by a previuos poster, then the short may never be covered. What i do not understand is why the % short interest is so much higher than the other refiners? They should use them all as a hedge equal allocations. SLV has been hedged forever and never gets covered.
If Credit Suisse is using $12.50, then either they do not feel comfortable forecasting it and are being conservative or else they know something i don’ about oil flowing from the north creating the anamoly. One makes me money, one loses me money. But if people can’t forecast oil prices, then how can they forecast crack spreads derived from oil (they can’t forecast)? The only thing I know for sure is that the higher the crack, the better off i am.
But SLV is shorted forever by likely JPM manipulation to keep paper silver prices down so inflation is harder to spot. SLV trades something like a years worth of silver production every day. Goofy paper silver of course. WNR, though well placed with respect to the gaping crack, is waaaaay too small… to have any material effect on global oil prices or crack spreads (unlike SLV for the silver sector). WNR shorts are just regular hedges, and the people holding the short WNR are not happy right now. They were hoping for tighter crack spreads for their short WNR.