It’s POMO, all day, every day. I warned you to “remember the clam.” Instead of heeding my dire warnings, you shot yourself in the face with a howitzer. Good going pal.
I expect grand things to happen at the opening of trade. I anticipate WNR to move higher, alongside my other stocks. I anticipate to make a great deal of money.
One final note for you WNR lovers: the only way this company fucks up current spreads is through idiotic hedging. Last quarter the company hedged 10% of its production at $16.50, on crack 321. They put up about 40-45mill in collateral.
The upside to the story is their idled refinery at Yorktown, which held over $22 mill in refined crude in reserves. Since then, prices have soared, so I expect that inventory to be worth more. Two things happen at Yorktown: 1. they sell it to another company and use some of the proceeds to pay down debt. 2. They restart the facility and take advantage of current spreads.
One thing you need to know, during Jan-Feb, WNR refineries were knocked offline due to bad weather. However, since then, they’ve been operating at full capacity. Earnings should reflect that. Their debt is not an issue now, with big payments scheduled in 2014 and 2017.
So, what we have here is the best refinery play in the United States, a company with full access to cheap light sweet crude from Cushings, the best play for taking advantage of the spread between Brent and WTI crude.
Target: $24
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Last time you were this dead set on an idea it was the vxx. Do you remmember how that trade played out. Just a thought!
Blasphemy, you heathen !
Regards,
Caff
More FTK than VXX
not more ftk….vxx was like 40% of his allocation
FTK was just as big.
VXX was never more than 20%.
BANNED
Adam
Your mother is a whore.
VXX was a macro play, not company specific.
wnr is not a company specific play, it is based off the fact that you think a macro trend is going to stay in the current relationshop. DON’T lie to yourself, and watch out for that rocket ship going up your ass my dear sir!!!
Yes clearly the idled Yorktown refinery is an industry-wide concern
No, this is specific to WNR. Their refineries are placed closest to Cushings and is the perfect, leveraged play on the Brent-WTI spread.
Again, BANNED
You call your dick “That Rocket Ship”? Weird. I imagine Senor Tropicana has no interest in your advances, though. Your whore-mother, on the other hand–now we might be getting somewhere…
Sustained.
find another blog. you are a dickhead, and haven’t done shit with your life.
I believe that settles the matter.
I am up HUGE today and I haven’t even looked at my WNR/VLO/ATPG account….hope this sumbitch doesn’t reverse. I deserve this.
Fly – you expect companies like VLO to ride the WNR coat tails and rocket up for many of the same reasons as WNR? Also, I see VLO reports earnings Monday
VLO is leadership. However, I expect greater results out of WNR, TSO and HOC, than VLO.
Morning Fly. Noticed you have been a little quiet about your WFT holding. Being as it is in the same sector (albeit a distinct service) you see upside for the sector in general from here? I have a hard time believing that capex will not increase with these prices.. hence my holding a pretty large long in WFT..
Any comments?
i sold out of WFT on Friday.
OK. Thanks.
I like WFT, long term, however
If you think WFT and WNR have anything in common other than the first letter of their tickers, you should sell out now.
Freaking awesome. Let’s do the damn thing today.
Why wouldn’t WNR just hedge to the gills right here, right now? Go 75% of production at $27 crack?
Because cracks can go higher.
Current spreads can be messed up with poor hedging no doubt……spreads can also be rendered worthless by uncontrolled expenses….etc
WNR had some one off expenses last QT. This QT numbers should look a lot better.
Long term? In the context of this discussion only, does long term mean: if you own it keep it or, if you don’t own it now, watch and buy in some time in the future? Is long term measured in minutes, hours, days, months or 30 seconds ago? Having read FLY for some time now I suspect the answer to all of this is a single word, yes.
My time frame is short. However, my style may not be yours. If you like to buy and hold, my sense, WFT will do just fine.
all me gains are evaporatin’
fly..
the reason wnr is in the sweet spot right now is bc of the giant difference between wti and what oil really sells for in oklahoma and texas. ( thats about 80 bucks) thats a 25 dollar spread wnr makes at the current time.
if your an oil company in west texas you have two options.. sell your oil to wnr for 80 bucks or pipe it somewhere else.
paa is good way to play that.
Thanks for the heads up on WNR potential pitfalls. I would think any old last quarter news would be forgiven and all guidance would establish the forward stock price since spreads continue to improve. Do we expect any potential guidance from WNR from the RBS Global Conference this Thursday? Valero’s website said earnings are 4/26. Tesoro’ website said earnings are 5/4. One day ahead of WNR.
No.
Proper Rally “Monkey” ready to clown rape the bears:
http://rookery.s3.amazonaws.com/1032000/1032090_4c7a_625x1000.jpg
I bet 3 or 4 months ago only about 5 guys on this blog understood what was meant by “crack spread”.
So true, go2mars. Honestly, this whole WNR excursion has been the best learning experience since I’ve been a member of this glorious community. FTK was awesome, learned a lot about what to look for in a turnaround story. EXK and NGD were excellent examples of how to play the rise in PM’s and invest in the mining sector. BORN and MOTR were learning experiences on how to side swipe getting fully MOTR-boated. And Fly has had a number of posts re WNR detailing how the Fundies come together and how they fit within the industry. Freaking awesome.
Crack spread… when the plumber slips while on his knees and it opens wide.
Where is Pomo Ben? He has disappointed me.
The jokesters on Fast Money love to talk about crack spread. It’s pretty well understood out there.
Concerning the large short interest in WNR. Does anyone know what is their thesis for being short? Do we know when the short interest was established?
Monkey brains. That’s the thesis. In all honesty, I’d have to think it’s mainly in place as a hedge. The company does have some big debt payments due in the next 5-6 years.