Examining the Rotation

Today seemed like a significant day. However, it may prove to be meaningless. I am going to throw some of my notes on this here blog, randomly, not really giving a fuck about cohesiveness.

Today’s notes at the desk of Le Fly

Mean sell off in treasuries, TLT down 1.5%.
Dollar tanked and gold/silver traded up. What else is new?
Coal down, natty down, oil up and gasoline down.
Refiners reversed lower. Crack spreads off by 3%.
WTI outstripped Brent.
Financials were very strong, while oil and gas stocks weak.
CSCO was very strong, as well as BRCM.
OPEN reversed lower.
Networkers FNSR, OCLR and XXIA surged. I thought that sector was dead?
AMD up. Okay, tech was kickass.
Education stocks were up big. No interest.
Pollution control stocks were up, like WPRT, PMFG, WCN and CLH.
TEX got hammered.
Furniture stocks were up, ETH, LZB, FBN.
Ag was very weak.
Do silver stocks ever trade down?
BBBY blew away numbers. This bodes well for GMCR.

For the day, I was down 1.1%.

Tech and banks are leading the market up today, as oil and other commodities take the day off. I bought some VCLK back, after selling it higher last quarter. If you recall, they smashed numbers. Only God and his twelve elves know why it traded down after such a perfect earnings report.

I anticipate the asshole dip buyers to come racing back to oil, specifically refiners, starting tomorrow. If not, I might consider adding to them, despite their overweight status within my portfolios.

Into the bell, expect a melt up, as always. And, do not be surprised if commodity related stocks rally off of this post. Money managers tremble at the idea of taking the opposite side of “The Fly,” for I will rip their spines out and send them seaworthy.

Cordially,

Le Fly

I bought 25,000 VCLK.

Disclaimer: If you buy VCLK because of this post, the next time you go in for minor surgery, they will accidentally slate you for “sex change” procedure. And, you may lose money.

Germany factory orders is today’s excuse to melt up. On the surface, I’d like you all to lose a great sum of money, as winning is not enough for me. However, deep down, I’d like to see you make money. Like O’bama, “The Fly” is a humanitarian.

There are so many stocks on my immediate buy list now (ppt members see my immediate buy watchlist). But, I am fully invested now and content with my current holdings. However, I get bored quickly, which is part of the reason why I trade a lot.

Into May earnings, I cannot think of a better place to be than the refiners. If you are short them, you stand to lose a great deal of money, as they smash through all earnings estimates, thanks to record crack spreads. The refiners go up every 5 years or so. But when they do, the moves are persistent and mind boggling.

Prepare to be boggled.

I know most of you ignore 8k’s like the plague, mainly due to your misguided beliefs that fundamentals don’t matter. Quite the contrary.

There is an urban myth out there that says “technicals trump all.” The truth of the matter is, without fundamentals, all of you fancy break outs would fall flat on their faces. The root of all bull and bear markets are embedded in the core fundamentals of the economy. Take AAPL as an example. None of your retarded charts could foretell such outperfomance, over such a long period of time. I acknowledge the fact that technicals can point a novice in the right direction. However, for the most part, technical analysis are the childish pyramids at Giza, while fundamental analysis is Puma Punku.

Case in point: Analyst Bomber’s call in AMSC. None of your moronic charts pointed to this sort of collapse. The same could be said about my recent call on the refiners or Muddy Waters’ obsession with Chinese lottery scams. The point: pay attention to the fundies too, if you are interested in seeing the whole picture. In my opinion, technicals are just one side of the story. It keeps you disciplined, but blind to many moving parts in this market.

I am about to launch a series of new tools inside of The PPT that will give the user the ability to scan analyst estimates, high and low, as well as revenue. How can this be useful?

Well, take the refiners, as an example. Aside from low PEG ratios, nothing in the current numbers say “this is bullish.” However, if you were able to scan for projected EPS and revenue growth, then calculate a high end estimate FPE and PEG, you would be like “OMG, this is so awesome and amazing.”

In summary, “The Fly” is about to launch some pretty “awesome and amazing” shit, on these here internets, within hours. PPT members stay tuned.

Gold and silver went absolutely nuts to the upside today, with double digit gains in a number of stocks. Steel went higher, as did refiners. We are at a point where investors are simply piling into these names, based upon the idea that the dollar is a worthless piece of shit. Do not fall into the trap, thinking the dollar is about to collapse. I like commodities. However, I am cautious about chasing tigers. If you don’t catch that fucker by the tail, he will bite your stupid head off.

I sold out of my airlines, fearing there will be no let up in the rise in jet fuel. I like the idea of being long DAL and LCC. However, I needed to exercise some risk management here and book small losses, before they get big.

Into any dip, I like WNR. That’s all I have for you now.

Okay, am I moving slow enough for you? I have been building my position in WNR with the utmost transparency, just to show you what Plutonium Petey is all about. I even revealed the amount of leverage (255%) applied to my personal account to show you what conviction is all about. What did you do?

Nothing. Some of you nibbled; but most of you watched.

Crack spreads are up another 4.5% now, nearing $26. Oil is trading down, while gasoline is up. Do you have any idea how bullish that is for refiners, particularly WNR? I told you we’d sit down, over a nice glass of brandy, once WNR touched $20, in order to discuss strategy going forward. Due to the rapid appreciation of WNR, it now constitutes 40% of my holdings.

As for the rest of my positions, they are doing well. My accounts are now up around 2% for the day, pushing my gains to 15%. However, my personal/aggressive account is up much more, now nearing +40% year to date. I realize this means nothing to you and only conjures up negative emotions, such as jealously, disbelief or anger; but I don’t give a fuck. I’m eating potato chips right now and I can’t hear a word you are saying, so fuck off.

I wish the goat fuckers at NASDAQ would have taken CSCO down several notches, back in 2000, when its market cap was north of $500 billion. I am a big fan of reducing AAPL‘s weighting in the NASDAQ, down to 12% from 20%, because it’s the rational thing to do. As you all know, “The Fly” is a man of reason, democracy and certitude. It shouldn’t surprise you that I support rational decisions, so fuck off.

At any rate, it’s for the greater good and you will just have to deal with the short term volatility, as the dickless “peggers” sell AAPL and buy MSFT. Let the retards figure it out, while we smoke Cuban cigars and ballroom dance over small glasses of sherry.

China raised rates, which means commodity related stocks might take a hit. It’s a knee-jerk thing, often short lived. It’s worth mentioning, crack spreads are up again this morning.

The bottom line: the TI for NSM deal is very bullish for the supply/demand dynamics of this market. Take into account that those idiot chicom stocks are getting taken out back and shot, I reckon investors need a place to put their hot money. Despite what you may believe, the market internals are still robust and the dips should be purchased, until the moon explodes.

Come one, come all. Watch Senor Tropicana aka “Plutonium Petey” aka HORATIO CLAWHAMMER aka “The Fly” perform great feats of magic and amazement. Watch him, live, as he turns a small sum of money into a “fuck load” of cash, right before your very eyes. The Great Spectacular of 2011 is upon you and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Backed by insane fundamentals, refiners gained ground again today, led by share advances in WNR, TSO and HOC. Let me tell you why people are short WNR: they are idiots. It’s the same reason why 25% of the shares of FTK were sold short @1. For the most part, money managers are just like you: weak and never in control. The difference between me and the others, Le Fly knows his shit and is guided by the stock Gods for the explicit purposes of creating wealth, on a grande scale.

As always, it’s not important that you agree with me, for you will have no choice but to respect my overcasting shadow. There will come a day, long from now, when you realize the type of mastery taking place on this here bullshit website. Everything posted here is done intentionally, down to the retarded music. It’s mathematical harmony being performed for all to bear witness. Compared to the shit slingers from other websites, you are in the company of living legends and do not even know it.

In closing, I gained another 1% today, pressing my gains to new highs. More impressively, my personal/aggressive account is now up north of 33%, full leveraged, not giving a fuck about anything but the margin rate.

Just make sure this snooze-fest doesn’t transform into some sort of fucked up noose-fest. For the most part, I am up today, thanks to my outsized WNR. However, most of my stocks are down, reversing lower after opening green. I fucking hate that.

Breadth is negative, with just 49% of stocks inside of The PPT green.

I don’t have a sense of urgency to do anything just yet. It’s early April and equities are supposed to trade up. Should we trade down for a few days, so be it.

In the interim, I will continue to accumulate refiners, as their prospects have never looked brighter. Did you know that WNR stands to make more $$ per barrel, in 2011-2012, than all domestic refiners? So, tell me, small pleb, WHY THE FUCK IS IT THE MOST HEAVILY SHORTED?

Answer: to be continued.