Golden Capitulation

Gold is now the #1 source of funds for everyone in need of cash. From hedge funds to Merrill Lynch all the way down to Dennis Gartman, gold is being sold with reckless abandon. More importantly, central banks own a shit load of gold. Would you be surprised to learn Italy sold gold in order to raise cash? Silver is nothing more than a levered version of gold. Hence, the move lower is extreme.

What’s very important to note is the fact that gold is no longer acting defensive. The Federal Reserve wants gold to trade lower and fast. They do not want GLD competing with TLT for scared money. Nevertheless, the drop in commodities is scaring the shit out of people. Whenever it happens, people attribute the drop to “slowing in China.” I give up trying to get a handle on China. One week they are slowing, the next things have never been better.

If you believe the Europeans will let everything collapse, short term, gold is a sell. If you believe they will print, this is a buying opportunity.

In my opinion, this is capitulation. Every fucktard with a series 7 or Zeeco trading account is selling gold now. I do not like to travel with the herd. So, naturally, I think these fucking idiots are wrong. But my risk appetite is nil. I am 75% invested and have reserved my cash for lower prices. If and when the market gets into my comfort zone, I will take a shot at some miners, like RGLD, EXK or AG. But remember, liquidation trades are volatile and the market is filled with the biggest fucking idiots the world has ever known.

In an unbelievable twist of events, following the abrupt cancelation of Thanksgiving, Christmas has been tossed aside too. The devil himself is inside of Germany and he is hell bent on an unseemly outcome to the debt crisis. The Italian yields are hardly moving this morning and Spanish yields are lower. But things do not look good. The euro is sinking again and European markets are in plunge mode.

At this point, it seems inevitable, taking Germany’s word at face value, there will be a monstrous European default. Italy needs to refinance over $300 billion in debt in 2012 and they have a big one coming up in late January. I think the Germans did the numbers and will prepare for default, instead of printing euros. Whether they are right or wrong is immaterial to me. The fact is, there is extreme downside risk to this tape.

At the same time, there are too many euro shorts. Remember when everyone was short dollars? Just about everyone I know is short euros or believes it is going lower. It is, in many ways, setting up to be the perfect short squeeze. Moreover, the market itself is close to oversold levels again and all we need is a rumor to get things going higher again. Do not think it can’t happen, ’cause it’s been happening all fucking year long.

In summary, I cannot be more bearish for 2012. Although I am still long by 75% and waiting for an end of year rally, my heart isn’t in it. I like when the market goes up, frankly, because it defies logic and reason. Bulls are very irrational and make me laugh. There is nothing like a 500 point rally off utter horse shit. The bears get all worked up, losing limbs along the way, and I find that to be the pinnacle of humor. But the fun is about to end and my job is about to get a lot harder. I’m afraid of getting tossed into a lit fireplace during one of my dip buying ventures. This is the year of the fucking train wreck. Gold and silver are now ceding to deflationary pressures coming out of Europe. The inflation trade is dead and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Imagine the stock market is a giant rubberband. The short sellers are pushing it all the way back, hoping to snap it and destroy the band. However, the band is very strong and shits on people like you daily. It rarely breaks. As a matter of fact, the band has only snapped a handful of times in over 100 years. More often than not, the band snaps back and catapults the shorts into muddy pits filled with alligators.

It’s true the euro is tanking and Europe is scary. For the most part, the US economy has held firm, allowing US debt to become a safe haven–also a net positive for gluttonous Americans. The question at hand is, how stretched is the rubberband right now? After all, let’s be honest with one another, this market doesn’t want to trade lower. So many leaders have been shot, yet the Dow is saddling 12,000.

In my estimation, fundamentals and technicals are now secondary to mean reversion in this market. Meaning: when levels get stretched, on both the long and short side, that is your most reliable tool when deciding to buy or sell. It sounds simple; but it really isn’t.

We remain in an oversold tape. As of right now, these levels are not woefully oversold, as investors liquidate positions thanks to the decline in the euro. We will get to an extreme oversold point soon and that will be an occasion to buy. When that time comes, most of you will be commenting shit on the zerohedge blog, rooting for black smoke. But you will be mistaken, yet again.

There is an algorithm, gentlemen, that is deciding the direction of this market and I have possession of it. It’s a woefully dangerous tape to navigate and the moves are extreme. No one would blame you if you chose to play it small, leaving the majority of your assets in cash. This is end of the year bullshit and the stakes have never been higher.

For now, I remain 75% long, with 5% ready to allocate into current positions at the right time.

NOTE: I shed 2% today.

NOTE 2: Happy birthday Ben Bernanke.

Italian yields are up and the Euro is getting punched in the face. As a result, this rally is being sold. It could come back. After all, it is Ben Bernanke’s birthday and today is Fed day. However, the market looks like shit.

I had nice gains this morning and now they’re all gone. Should we continue to weaken, I stand to lose a great deal of money. I am calling in all favours here, demanding my Voodoo Physician make the sacrifices needed to switch the momentum hammer back into my corner.

It’s all relative, frankly, Easy come and easy go. There isn’t a chance in cold hell for this market to trend higher while the euro dives.

Honestly, I am quite shocked that we are still up.

In other news, Iran is playing with their speedboats in the straights of Hormuz. Do they really think our aircraft carriers will allow them to close it? Come on.

BBY disappointed. Wow, what a shocker. Have you ever witnessed the absurd amount of floor space BBY dedicates to DVD’s, CD’s and video games? Their business model, similar to BKS and GME, is not sustainable long term. The world has moved away from buying DVD’s, CD’s and will eventually buy video games via uploads. A great long term pair trade would be to be long cloud/bandwidth plays stocks, like RAX, AKAM, EQIX, RVBD, ARUN, VMW, FFIV and even SWIR, while short CSTR, BKS, BBY, TWMC and CONN. Digital media must be delivered, umm, digitally.

The same could be said about hard drive makers or bullshit PC’s, like DELL. Fuck those stocks. DLB makes money from the delivery of music via PC’s and laptops, but gets nothing from iPads. Look at the stock and see how stupid is looks.

The investment banks are also legacy. Fuck them too, as well as all large banks. Their business models are shattered and will not be able to lure serious investment capital for years.

The world is changing and the owners of it are companies like AMZN, PCLN and APPL. Other names that have been beaten down still have a shot at redemption. For example: GRPN, OPEN, Z, AWAY, LLNW, CTRP, SOHU and YNDX. Just because a stock is down doesn’t mean the super growth cycle is over. I remember when AMZN was sucking major dick, before Bezos found his stride.

I try to avoid being long names, even for a trade, that go against what I believe in. If I lose money in something I understand and like, it is acceptable. However, nothing feels worse than getting fucked in a stupid stock. I am sure the short term traders in DMND can understand my point.

NOTE: If Iran attempts to shut down the Persian Gulf (ROFL), Brent crude will explode and refinery stocks will recover all over their recent losses, AND MORE.

“The Fly” just got back from ushering the family around town, as it is his duty to personally escort Mrs. Fly throughout this great island of ours, for there are usurpers everywhere.

As you can see, the market closed sharply off its lows, setting the stage for a nut in nutcracker trading action tomorrow, unfortunately for the bears.

My TNA holding recouped much of its losses, as did the majority of my positions. As a point in fact, one or two of them traded higher for the session. All in all, today amounted to a 1.05% drubbing for yours truly. There are greater things to discuss, frankly, such as the deadline that looms to sign up for 12631 at “southern poor” rates. So you know, the Northern Masters at iBC will be introducing heinous price hikes in 2012, as it is our custom to do so.

Bottom line: the market wants higher and I would like to stop typing. Be on alert for more scare tactics on Twitter and be sure to tell such persons to “eat horse shit” when the market commences to rip off their tergum tomorrow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDN8NzIGz-Y

My issue with moving down south has nothing to do with “being accepted” or afraid of the southern culture. Quite the contrary. As a point in fact, no matter where I go there will not be any courting of acceptance from local yocals. Based upon the laws of science, the very rules that allow you to eat and breathe, my northern heritage makes me superior to those disheveled in the south. I’m afraid, frankly, that one of my scowls might go unnoticed while at a Whole Foods in Georgia, providing some Brave fan to make small talk with me. This, as you know, is not possible.

The winter months up north force us to stay inside and think of innovative ways to win wars and invent things. While the idiots in Florida are out picking oranges from their trees, us Northerners are plotting their demise.

I do admit, however, the frigid winter months wears on me like intelligence in Kentucky. Perhaps if I wasn’t so vain, I could accept my fate as a Northern Master and forget about relocating into enemy territory. After all, my very presence in the bible belt would cause uprisings and burning crosses to reemerge, as a wide array of historical truths thrust atop their empty mantles.

With regards to this market, as you can see I am ignoring it. I am enduring losses and I am not fond of losses. It’s only one big horrendous day in the big scheme of things. We’ve been through this drill before and I am accustomed to the volatility.

Wake me up when my house is on fire.

As an aside, I just found out that the cocksuckers in North Carolina are trying to get the “anti-fracking” ban removed, in order to destroy the Raleigh area. Gas companies have already begun leasing drilling rights from the fucking hillbillies living in that area. It’s only a matter of time before the politicians are paid off and the ban is lifted. Fucking great. Now I need to find a different place to live.

Dare I say Georgia? I gather GA might be a little too redneckish for the likes of me. Dare I say if I moved down there, my finer Northern sensibilities would cause me to reenact the splendid actions of our very own GENERAL SHERMAN.

I am doing NOTHING into this sell off. I am just watching the birds shit all over my neighbors cars and now I am fixin’ to take myself over yonder to have a nap, hear!

Europe is shitting the shower, following a “successful” Italian bond auction. However, that was accomplished through the efforts of the ECB. The Euro is cratering, down by more than 1.2%–sending shockwaves across our futures. The result is a much stronger dollar, treasuries and fucked up gold and silver pinless hand grenade action.

Thanks to the perverts in Europe, we will likely give back everything we gained on Friday.

However, don’t let the Debby Downers get you down for Zynga is coming public this week. Need I remind you that GSVC owns a piece?

At any rate, the “Pandemic People” over in Germany are “winning” in a Charlie Sheen sort of way. By the time they complete their victory, the entirety of Europe will be a smoldering pile of shit. Having said that, Intel just warned because of Thailand. I am not so sure that is makes sense to believe Thailand is the real reason behind this fuckery. Let’s just assume the world is stupid and we need to make smart trades.

NOTHING is long term, not even your life.

I haven’t quite finished my predictions for 2012. As it happens, my time machine is in the shoppe and I am left with very little plutonium to travel forward. However, rest assured, all of the things you see and hear now will be resolved, one way or another, in 2012.

Perhaps the Mayans were onto something, with regards to the end of the world. Although we shall remain here in the physical sense, our spirits will be dashed as the entirety of western finance comes crashing down. If you think about it, the Mayans were true sages.

I expect short sellers will resume their headlong assault with great alacrity, immediately, during the calendar year of 2012. This means, you need to get your financial house in order right now. This is the proverbial last hoorah and you would be keen to lock in profits whenever possible.

All is not lost, for as servants of the stock market, we can profit from the demise of others like true macabres.

Many of of you are too young and/or stupid to understand what is at play here. So let me be bold in assuming you can read and write on a 5th grade level to tell you this: what you see here is a respite, a mirage of sorts in the vast dry deserts of humanity. Drink up the ambrosia best you can for giant scorpions are about to impale you and devour you whole.

Happy trading.