A Poser’s Channel Checks Gone Awry

For months and months and months, Sam Poser (the same guy who just threw DECK under the bus by reducing his price target from $130 to an astonishing $72) pounded the table for CROX, the retarded rubber shoe maker.

Here’s what Sammy had to say:

September 19, 2011

Company Report

Footwear & Apparel

Crocs Inc. (NYSE: CROX)

Rating: Buy

Price: $28.28
Price Target: $40.00
Analysts: Sam Poser / Kenneth M. Stumphauzer, CFA /

Breadth of product line, improving distribution strategy, and numerous growth opportunities leave us very positive about current trends and the future

n Breadth and quality of product mix and growth opportunities are the key stories. We spent a few days last week with Jeff Lasher, CROX CFO, and came away quite confident that both our 2012 revenue and EBIT margin growth forecast will prove conservative. Based on many of our meetings, we believe that a large number of potential investors do not appreciate that only 9% (yes 9%) of Crocs revenue comes from the classic original Beach and Caymen clog styles. ~50% of the revenue does come from Clogs, but the best-selling new shoe in spring 2011 was the Translucent Adrina flat, which is about as far from a clog as one can get. Other recent additions to Crocs’ mix are the Chameleon, Golf, Sneaker, and Boot collections, all of which have very compelling new shoes that will continue to position the brand as an affordable comfort lifestyle brand.

n Global growth likely to continue in the double digits: In 2010 Americas, Europe and Asia represented 47%, 16%, and 36% of total revenue. 2012 YTD sales were up 25%, 46% and 36% in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Management said that international growth would outpace domestic growth for some time to come. Management said that the growth in the U.S. was going to be driven by an increase in door count at key large accounts, reestablishing relationships with major independent accounts and a broader mix of product in every channel of distribution. In the U.S. 50% of revenue comes from wholesale accounts, 50% of that wholesale business comes from independent retailers, and some key independents that cut back and or ceased Crocs business in 2008 are beginning to buy the shoes once again. Crocs appears to be in the process of looking for production facilities in Brazil (a country with material growth potential), which are needed due to duties of $12 per pair for shoes from China. The European business is driven primarily by Northern and Central Europe with little exposure thus far in troubled countries such as Spain and Greece. Asian sales are expected to continue to have rapid growth led by store growth of at least 15% in China, new customers in Japan and South Korea and new business in New Zealand.

n Strong margin and sales growth potential: At the analyst day earlier this year management put forth an EBIT margin goal of 15%, which will likely be achieved this year. Following our recent meetings with the CFO, we believe that management will put forth a 3- to 4-year plan next January at the ICR investor conference, and that the a high-teens margin goal will be put in place and will be primarily achieved through G&A leverage, on a plan for ongoing 20% plus annual revenue growth Crocs does have more GM expansion opportunities over time as the history from the backlog is gathered and educated decisions are made for speculative inventory for at-once sales. Remember that retailers are encouraged to place futures by being given a discount, and discounts are not given for A/O orders. In the short term, the reported backlog for spring ’12 on the 3Q11 earnings call will be a key data point. Given the new points of distribution and the strong new product, we would expect a backlog in excess of 35%. We are also comfortable with our 4Q11 GM estimate of 50% which is well below 1Q-3Q margins but 180bps above 4Q10 margin. We believe that management has learned from the mistakes of the past and are becoming well positioned for a strong future.

October 17, 2011

Company Report

Footwear & Apparel

Crocs Inc. (NYSE: CROX)

Rating: Buy

Price: $26.64
Price Target: $30.00
Analysts: Sam Poser / Kenneth M. Stumphauzer, CFA /

Early release of disappointing results due to disappointing retail sales. This is not 2007/2008 all over again. Lowering estimates and price target.

n Disappointing earnings and 4Q11 outlook: In a major surprise this evening, CROX lowered 3Q11 EPS guidance from $0.40 to $0.31-$0.33, and lowered revenue guidance from $280M to $273M-$275M. The revised EPS guidance reflects EBIT margin of ~13%, down ~300BPS from the original guidance but up ~90bps from 3Q10. The earnings miss was driven by light retail sales in North American outlets and kiosks that respectively had too little promotional product and could not effectively house new fall goods, and weaker than planned European retail sales. Retail sales have meaningful incremental margins, meaning that the modest top-line miss had a pronounced impact on the bottom line. The weak sales resulted in lower than planned penetration of the higher margin retail sales which was exacerbated by supporting some wholesale revenue with product that was slated to retail. Wholesale revenue exceeded the company’s expectation. In the press release and subsequent discussions with management, full financial details were not provided and will not be until the earnings call on October 27.

n Not 2007 but not pretty: Inventory levels are expected to be slightly down from $156M on a sequential basis, which means that inventory will likely be up around 7% and at most 9% on a year-over-year basis. Given that 3Q sales were up ~27% and 4Q11 has been guided to a low teens revenue increase versus our prior estimate for a 26% increase, inventory levels are well positioned.

n Strong wholesale backlog indicates strength into 2012: The backlog for the next 6 months is $297M (+30% y/y). We believe that 4Q backlog is up 18%-20% and 1Q12 is up 33%-35%. The company expects relative weakness in European markets, which surprised us as we thought that the small size of the business there would result in growth. Recent channel checks with major retailers indicate that sales of Crocs’ new styles remain strong and are accelerating and those retailers are planning Crocs up double digits in 2012. The planned increases will come through broader assortments and increased door counts as well.

n Lowering estimates and price target: We are lowering our 3Q11, 4Q11, FY11 and FY12 EPS estimates from $0.40, $0.15, $1.38, and $1.69 to $0.32, $0.05, $1.19, and $1.42. We are lowering our price target to $30 from $40. We still see strength in the overall brand and do not believe that the $5M miss is indicative of brand weakness. However, given the company’s history in 2007 and 2008, we would expect the stock to be in the penalty box in the near term. We do not believe the weakness in Europe is endemic of broader problems there. Rather, we believe that Crocs is having issues with its distributor partners which need resolution. Crocs’ senior management will be joining us at an event this weekend and we hope to get some more items clarified at that time. In the meantime we believe the weakness provides a buying opportunity.

The result?

Okay, Sammy got CROX wrong. No wait, he got his channel checks really, really wrong on CROX. But he’s been right on others, right? Let’s have a look.

SKX – Skechers USA Ltd. – Following management meetings and product review, we believe rewards outweigh the risks. Adjusting estimates
Skechers USA Ltd. (NYSE: SKX)
Rating: Buy

Current Price: $23.07
Price Target: $30.00

Oh fuck, more channel checks gone awry!

Maybe he had some good channel checks before?

SKX – Skechers USA Ltd. – We conclude, following meeting with management, that it’s not the end of the world as we know it. Lowering estimates and PT and retain Buy rating.
September 28, 2010 Company Report

Footwear & Apparel

Skechers USA Ltd. (NYSE: SKX)
Rating: Buy

Current Price: $22.71
Price Target: $38

Nah, he doesn’t know what the fuck he is talking about.

SKX – Skechers USA Ltd. – Following meeting with management we are more confident that opportunities abound to exceed our Street high estimates
Skechers USA Ltd.
SKX: $36.23 – Recommendation: BUY – Target Price: $40.00

Yeah, wrong again, just for shits and giggles.

“The Fly” reiterates his strong buy on DECK, price target $1 gagillion.

The fucking gorilla over at Sterne Agee ruined my day with his fucking ridiculous downgrade of DECK. May I be emphatic? How does this chimp get to a $72 price target from $130 based upon the Nordstrom website and weather trends? Women don’t give shit about the weather. They honey badger their way into Uggs boots in the summer, snow, rain–it doesn’t matter. He also cites an increase in sheepskin prices as a reason to sell. Well, FUCK YOU RUNNING SIDEWAYS, Sir. Women will buy that shit at $200 with same ferocity as they do at $180.

I will make you a bet, Sir. If the earnings are poor in February, I will give myself an Asshat Award. On the other hand, if DECK beats and guides up, based upon “honey badger” mentality amongst fashioned crazed women, I will mail you physical trophies of the Asshat Award for the rest of your natural life. You, Sir, will not escape the wrath of Le Fly, for he travels the globe with guillotine and mingles amongst pirates and operates space orbital cannons (SOC) from the back of his 1980’s stretch limousine.

Since the beginning of the day, my positions have increased in value, particularly LULU. Based upon the science of nature and all that is good on the earth and in space, I started a position in EXK. I beg you, dear foe, bet against me in EXK and I will see to it your kidneys removed from your person and you will wake up in a tub filled with ice, attached to a dialysis machine.

With Confidence and Fidelity,

Fly

I started a position in EXK. I intend to buy more.

Disclaimer: If you buy EXK because of this post, Sterne Agee will downgrade the stock based upon the weather trends in Vancouver. And, you may lose money.

Unlike Europe, our economy is improving. I am not hallucinating either. Frankly, this fade of the opening pop is the idiot trade and a trap. I declare with the utmost certainty, the dealers in magical arts are deceiving you. The sellers are over confident, buttressed by recent gains, ignorant to the jackal who awaits around the corner.

I sold out of REDF because it’s stupid Indian bullshit. I really need to reduce the number of positions I have, in exchange for potency. I will rally behind a few names and transform my lemons into sweet, delicious lemonade.

Pardon my brashness, for I am only a man with opinions. The rag dolls on CNBC chuckle over the current state of events. Unlike them, I understand what it feels like to be in this market. Unlike them, I have millions at stake here and I share your struggle. Having said that, my path is different from yours, as I endeavor to cut through the thick forest of uncertainty with a machete. Save yourself and wait until the path is cleared and the roads paved. While your potential fortunes may be less grande than that of my own, the likelihood of behind devoured whole by an anaconda will be nil. Find solace in safety of capital, especially during this festive time of the year.

All in all,  I believe we are close to an inflection point, where the scales of uncertainty tip once again from manic-panic to gluttonous greed. My best guess, the next sell off will be the last of 2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4-d2i7ahtc

The fucking analyst at Sterne Agee today downgraded DECK this morning, based upon weather, Nordstrom’s website and the fucking price of Sheepskin. He deduced from all of this
“the mania is over” and reduced his price target from $130 to $72. He hedged his incredibly aggressive call saying he does not expect Q4 numbers to be affected. Instead, he is looking for fire and brimstone in 2012.

Fuck that shit. This is a classic average down situation, as the company doesn’t report until February. More so, if the fucking weather get a bit colder next week, all of the asshole analysts will come out of the wood works, suggesting the cold weather trends bode well for DECK. I am using this dip to add to my position by 1/3rd. I will add another 3rd if it gets into the low $80’s.

The market looks okay early on. However, I am not getting excited until the rivers of cocaine are flowing again. Until I see Rick Ross on CNBC, handing out bank notes to the women on the NYSE, this rally is suspect.

Fucking suspect I say!

Nevertheless, I am long and staying that way, focused on GSVC, REDF, RBCN and this cocksucking DECK (for now). I also like LULU, MDR, TNA and DVR.

I have a lot of ideas who should receive the illustrious Asshat of the Year award. It could be Jon Corzine or Reed Hastings, HERMAN CAIN or any one at all. As a matter of fact, it could be you!

I declare that you must decide, despite your lack of cranial functions. Leave suggestions in the comments section and I will review them, whilst sipping on my overflowing mug of Earl Grey.

There is so much to talk about when reflecting on the bullshit that was 2011. For me, it was incredibly hard to make “high percentage” trades. It was a year that surprised me, as the unexpected and surreal replaced the normal, easy trades. Without a doubt, if you weren’t nimble, you lost a tremendous amount of money.

Because of the extreme volatility, I suspended my options account, since it proved to be an exercise in futility. The very essence of momentum was disrespected over and over again by rumors and rumors of rumors, purported by viagra addled bureaucrats dressed in ugly suits–hellbent on interfering in capital markets.

Following one monster year after another, from 2005-2010, I will be lucky to close out 2011 with a +10% gain. However, if there is one thing I did exceedingly well this year it was controlling losses. I’ve had my MOTR boats and unlucky endeavors in VXX and certain nefarious dealings with Chinese burritos. But my yearly range has remained tight, between -5% to +15%. At the very depth of 2011, I was off by just 8%. I held the course and successfully navigated my way back to profitability. But the cost was great, purely from a quality of life point of view.

Like many of you, the volatility emanating out of Europe has led to constant uneasiness, sleepless nights, vacations that entailed 10 hour work days, and a perpetual state of mania that has resulted in numerous trading mishaps. There has been no clear direction or thesis to fall back on. A few months ago I endeavored to park cash in food stocks and laid the ground work for capital infusions into 10 companies. Luckily I never mustered up the confidence to invest because two of those stocks were TEA and DMND, both horrendous losers.

Once again, we had to deal with the typical Wall Street corruption that we’ve all grown to expect and love, which of course goes entirely unpunished. Jon Corzine and his fucking beard lost a bunch of money, fucking MF Global and its clients. As usual, Congress will call hearings and promise to “investigate.” But they will never prosecute “one of their own.”

We learned that our beloved elected officials have been profiting from insider trading, which is legal for them. This is the Roman Senate and no one seems to give a shit. There is one group of degenerate animals who got mad in 2011 and that was the Occupy Wall Street crowd. But what was their demand? These filthy idiots want us to give the corrupt government even more power. Ha! In other words, they feel the way to help America is to give more money to the cocksuckers who conduct themselves with the most undistinguished dishonor the American people have ever seen, the same people who gladly sellout the American worker and expedite the greatest transfer of wealth, from west to east, the world has ever seen. They want to do this by taking my money and literally giving it to union chiefs who in turn will make political donations to the democratic party. No thank you and fuck you very much.

This was also the year the proverbial chickens came home to roost. All of the excess and waste that led to giant European debt loads was firmly rejected in the debt markets this year. As a result, the continent teeters on financial disaster. I suspect, the chickens will die in 2012, leading to a finale of sorts, a conclusion if you will, to the drama we see playing out here on a daily basis.

There are days when I question whether I want to be in this business. In so many ways, I don’t need this shit. But I love it and would not know what to do with myself without it. The truth is, as many of you know, it’s real easy to hate something when you suck at it. Well, by my standards, in 2011, I sucked. For all of the research and long hours that I dedicate to this trade, I expect to outperform by grotesque proportions. All of my big thesis trades flopped, with exception to one sweet run in the refiners.

I can’t keep dodging bullets like this– because eventually one is going to hit me between the eyes.

Here I am at 11pm, penning this article, worrying about Italian 10 year yields, reflecting on my failures. I have a great book waiting to be read in the bedroom and a hot cup of Earl Grey tea right next to it. In many respects, I’ve made my bed already. Now I’m gonna go lie in it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vVS3wE5KVg&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqovTGjYjM4&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNXd0qbpln0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJxkrXdPM-8

Fuck you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyTKPHQwDe8

Reflecting back on 2011, I want to punch calendars in the face. As of right now, as you read this, “The Fly” is losing coin. In a way, you can say I’ve squandered my recent successes via holding onto my hopium pipe. I smoke from this pipe and make outrageous declarations, while in robe, from my balcony. My neighbors ask me to tone it down and I retort by firing my bedroom cannon at them. The recoil from the battery nicks my furniture, pissing Mrs. Fly the fuck off.

I am in this war alone. Most of the people I know do stupid shit, like defend criminals in court or sell drugs through fancy offices. Wall Street is besmirched by the media and “main street” as an evil group of people doing fucked up shit to the economy while everyone sleeps. The truth of the matter is, it is YOU, main street, who fuck everything up, via your votes and spending patterns. You are degenerates, unable to manage a purse, let alone a $15 trillion economy.

You borrowed money from banks then walked away from your obligations when the value of your home went lower. Well, fuck me running sideways. I’d like to “walk away” from my LULU and RBCN investments and just forget about the whole ordeal. Oh, Mr. Congressmen, can I please just walk away from it and sue Morgan Stanley for recommending those stocks? You see, I’m a fucking idiot and I believed what the smart folks at Morgan said. I’d like my money back and another $500,000 for pain and suffering.

You cocksuckers on Main Street are a DISGRACE to the world. I see you little pigmies and I know how you think. While the apparatus on Wall Street is not perfect, we are leagues smarter than the fucktard who makes widgets in Somedumbfuck, Michigan.

Naturally out Prezident backs the zeroes because he’s never been a boss. It’s populism rum amuck and you’re all gonna pay for it, dearly, when your bullshit 401k plans hit zero.