Fly Buy: WNR

I bought 25,000 WNR and will continue to do so, until I get my share.

First, let me just say, our government is trying to purposely repeat the mistakes of the Great Depression. It is truly pathetic. The GOP wants austerity and the fucking dems want a trade war with China. They are fucking babies, unfit to lead. But if you think we have it bad, take gander at Europe. Their market losses are 3-4 times ours. The amount of carnage and loss of wealth taking place in Europe is nothing short of staggering.

If you’ve been taking hits, trying to to trade this tape, take a deep breadth and chill the fuck out. Ignore the misfits who offer nothing but vitriol. Again, I hate to constantly beat up on Twitter, but so many of those so called market experts are full of shit. Just so you know, behind the scenes, the managing elite at iBC have been banning a great many people, in order to clean up the site. While you might believe freedom of speech should reign supreme, the truth is, noise must be eliminated from intelligent discussion. I strongly advise that you cease and desist clowning around and get to work.

A lot of people are telling you to buy high dividend paying stocks. As much as I appreciate a good divvy, in a downward spiraling market, dividends are pointless. You will end up losing 10-20% of your principal before you receive your fist payment. What’s the point?

To that point, I screened for large cap stocks, yielding greater than 2%, that are up over the past 3 months. Here are the results:

No. Ticker 3-month Return Dividend Yield Market Cap
1 BMY 8.03 4.20 53,520,000,000
2 OKS 7.09 5.00 9,500,000,000
3 KMB 6.69 3.90 27,820,000,000
4 VFC 6.68 2.10 12,970,000,000
5 DCM 5.89 3.10 75,720,000,000
6 PGN 5.67 4.80 15,240,000,000
7 ED 4.99 4.20 16,700,000,000
8 DUK 4.79 5.00 26,620,000,000
9 SO 4.37 4.50 36,030,000,000
10 BAP 3.72 2.10 7,320,000,000
11 CHL 3.58 3.70 195,500,000,000
12 LO 3.49 4.70 15,320,000,000
13 D 2.74 3.90 28,900,000,000
14 NI 2.50 4.30 6,000,000,000
15 GIS 2.48 3.20 24,770,000,000
16 HSY 2.19 2.30 13,470,000,000
17 EPB 2.03 5.40 7,300,000,000
18 CNP 1.94 4.00 8,360,000,000
19 MO 1.63 6.10 56,680,000,000
20 RAI 1.25 5.70 21,850,000,000
21 MCD 1.10 3.20 90,610,000,000
22 MMP 1.03 5.20 6,810,000,000
23 AEE 0.59 5.20 7,190,000,000
24 CL 0.44 2.60 43,140,000,000
25 TGT 0.38 2.40 32,280,000,000
26 PPL 0.36 4.90 16,490,000,000
27 SCG 0.25 4.80 5,220,000,000
28 NTT -0.17 2.90 63,380,000,000
29 XEL -0.53 4.30 11,770,000,000
30 PEG -0.83 4.10 16,880,000,000

So that’s it, just 30 companies. Before you know it, people will sell them too. Even worse, if the economy worsens, the dividends will be called into question, offering a catalyst for short sellers to press the shares, further fucking you into a murderhole.

If you want safety, you’re better off hedging your longs with shorts. Don’t be afraid to sell short. As you can see, it can be very rewarding.

In the pre-market, shares of MS are getting smashed again, alongside everything else. I do believe we are very close to a sharp bounce. However, I will be very patient with my cash, opting to slowly dollar cost average into select names. For now, the only stocks I will be dollar cost averaging into are WNR-IPGP. But, as sure as I am sitting here, there will be 300% winners off of these lows, once people stop shitting themselves.

This is not “the” bottom, but one that will be traded and sopped up by fucked up trading robots, as you delve into a great depression. I was very bearish over the weekend and still believe the S&P dips below 1,000. However, today’s breadth is screaming for an oversold bounce higher. We are talking about 5-8% to the upside in the gayest fashion ever.

I say this with 70% of my assets in cash and very little to gain from such an occurrence. However, let it be known, I will force myself to buy more equities tomorrow until it borders on the insane. I will run my screens inside The PPT this evening and establish a game plan to bath in great profits, at the explicit expense of THE CEMENT HEAD and others.

While this might seem like an astronaut plan to you, it is something that must be done, so sorry.

Men from honourable realms, like Roger Nightingale, believe we are heading into a fabulous depression, dressed with starved babies and houses made from mud and cow shit. I happen to agree with him. The coming depression will poleax most of you into a new stone age, where you will be forced to build wheels for food. But, before all of that happens, first, we must rally into the sun, with balmy breezes caressing our faces–as we shoot RPG’s aimed at outerspace.

I find pleasure in futility.

I am probably wrong and this likely was done in a very innocent way. But the Faber-Cramer Morgan pump this morning almost seemed scripted. Jim was negative on the banks and said if he was at his hedge fund, he’d be a seller of calls in Morgan, if he owned them. A short while later, Faber came back on screen and quizzed Cramer about his negative posture on the banks, cornering Jim to say something positive on Morgan.

This is what happened next.

No more snarky comments from you. I will no longer tolerate the dick size contests on my blog. I strongly advise you to take your ruler and go measure your cocks on Jakegint’s blog. I do not appreciate your candor, jokes, or insight.

Early this morning I made an error. I allocated about 10% of my assets to IPGP, WNR and a little TNA. Even worse, I covered shorts. I kept my EXH short, however, because I believe it goes to $00.00. It was a bad day for me,despite being in a 70% cash position. It’s about winning and I am not doing that right now.

Like drunken vagrants you dared to litter my parlour with jokes and low brow humor. Even worse, you went about your
day in an exceedingly pompous manner. For that, I’ve decided to restrict all of you from commenting on ibc.

This suspension is for you own protection, because I am liable to ban every single one of you.

Good day.

Cramer and Faber’s pump of Morgan Stanley has fallen flat on its face. Their pump caused the stock to spike 7%. Fast forward a few short hours and the stock is down 7%. Make that a 14% reversal for the Cramer crowd. Because of this, amongst the carnage in anything related to China, stocks are spiraling lower.

I took a shot, buying WNR, TNA and IPGP. But I should have taken a shit instead. I am still short EXH and my cash position is about 68%. But this is not what I expected, needless to say. We are so oversold right now, the market is in danger of cascading lower. The level of pessimism is so contagious and absolute, there is a certain air of finality about this market. I regret buying stocks this morning. More so, I regret covering my shorts in TROW, NTRS and LM.

I took a small shot and lost. Time to regroup again and figure out how not to kill myself next.

There are several things I am looking at, as a tell, for a rally.

1. Share prices of MS, BAC and GS.
2. TLT. If it is up, we go down.
3. UUP. Same as 2.
4. USO.
5. JJC.
6. AAPL.

UPDATE: I bought 25,000 IPGP

Immediately after the ISM numbers, I sold out of ERY and bought TNA. Additionally, I covered my shorts in TROW, LM and NTRS. I am holding onto my EXH short.

Also, I bought 75,000 shares of WNR. I am not sure if the stock has bottomed yet. However, it is certainly more attractive now than where I sold it a few weeks ago. I am not sure if I am going to put a line in the sand on these shares or build a position from here. I definitely believe the refiners are in far better shape than valuations dictate. After all, crack spreads and WTI-Brent spreads are still at record highs. I sold the majority of my shares because I feared the market was going to drop and the refiners were underperforming. The only thing that has changed is the price.

It is attractive here, especially if we are going to get an oversold bounce.

Many of you query “hey Fly, if the market is so bad, why don’t you short stocks? (heavy Brooklyn accent)”

Before I answer your question, let me just re-warn you of retardation taking place in the Empire of Accounting Fraud: China. Met coal prices are plunging and the global growth story is in jeopardy. Very soon, you will be tempted to own stocks with low multiples. Moreover, you will feel a certain sense of instant gratification upon short term runs in these commodity names. Before you know it, BAM, the homo-hammer of certain death and destruction will crack your skeleton in half.

Look at ANR, ACI, CLF, AKS and X– all very attractive no? Those stocks can easily lift 20% from current levels, or continue their fucked up trip to hell and drop by another 50%.

Right now, I have a net 15% short position. My cash position is around 70% because we are very oversold. I am a firm believer in the “rubber band” effect and have seen markets run hard in the most arduous of circumstances. All we need is one positive headline and this market is going to decapitate all of the newly minted bearshitters. I am not ruling out adding to short positions; but for now, I am purposely opting for the safer route via cash.

My original intention was to hold cash until the market got hammered, in order to step in and buy names. However, now I am starting to think it makes greater sense to wait for a rally and sell it short. We are in a very difficult market and selling short isn’t for the faint of heart. I do believe there will be a run on a number of hedge funds who are long commodity names, which is why they are getting hit the hardest.

In closing, I cannot justify buying stocks in size until the S&P touches down below 1,000.

Some of you are new to iBankCoin and do not know whom you are speaking to, when commenting on “The Fly’s” blog. That’s alright to a certain extent, as all of us deserve a good talking to and education to expand, mentally. I’ve watched most of you make heinous jackasses out of yourselves for the past 5 years, with unique and unparalleled consistency. It’s entirely understandable because you are retail aka “goat fucking misfits” who are here to serve as bag-holders for the managing elite.

Oh, by no means are these so called hot shot hedge managers any better, mind you. They are simply holding a bigger bag.

Thanks to my rocket ship technology and time machine capsule, “The Fly” has never participated in the holding of bags. The very notion of it is somewhat foreign and arcane to him. I’ve determined the direction of this market far in advance of your newspapers and know when to press bets and when not to.

You should know, most of iBC is bearish now, including RC, Wood, Jakegint, Scott, Caine, Chess (to a certain extent, although more open minded) and myself. This is a very rare occurrence. The last time we were all in synch was late 2007, just before the proverbial and literal dismantling of the stock market.

A great many of you are optimistic about the price of shares only because “everyone else is bearish.” Frankly, that’s an asinine investment thesis, hinging upon the outer-banks of sanity. If you are buying XYZ, you should have a reason to own the shares that are based upon the companies fundamentals, not the color of your fucking mood ring.

With regards to your investment portfolios versus net worth: you shouldn’t have more than 50% of your worth in stocks. If you are placing all of your eggs in one crooked basket, do not blame anyone but yourself when your mood ring wipes out your 5 figure ThinkandSink accounts.

What is the bottom line to all of this drivel you ask?

See the title of this post.