Now Let Me Tell You What I Really Think of the EFSF

I refrained from opining on the EFSF because I know how to comport myself when in defeat. Unlike many of you, “The Fly” knows how to behave graciously when things do not go his way. Whether it be in a game of chess or the acknowledgment of egregious grammatical and/or syntax errors in a self penned manifesto, “The Fly” tips his hat and continues to fight the good fight, as any gentleman of stature would behave.

Having said that, it’s true this stock market is the biggest piece of offal to ever exist amongst mankind. The EFSF bailout is a complete fraud and you will understand this lesson soon, as Italian 10 year yields scream higher. The reason why Europe cannot bail itself out is because there is a nuclear bomb in a box, atop the altar of the Eurozone, and it has Italian words scribbled on it. Some dumbass German guy is gonna open it and the entirety of Germany will be distinguished. It will be quite the spectacle. Moreover, the idea to leverage 440 billion of imaginary money by 500% to purchase Greek bonds is insane. I hope you realize this main hypothesis of mine.

Aside from Greece, Portugal, Belgium, Ireland and Spain need help too. This is a little early, but Turkey is a highly levered economy and will die, soon enough. China is not Santa Claus and Brazil couldn’t care less.

Eventually, these chickens will come home to roost and my original thesis will be proven correct. In the interim, I will play the rape-tape and assume all is well, even though it’s not. It’s clear to me, the “powers that be” have a firm grip in the price action and it would beguile my good name to incessantly call for sheer panic. As a point in fact, I am not expecting a panic. Instead, I am anticipating a total snap and break of the equity arm of this tree of bullshit, all in due time.

Until that happens, stay flexible and as always, avoid those murdeholes.

Not the psychopath political one, but the stock.

I’ve been recommending purchase of it since $20, yet haven’t bought a share for myself. I was going through personal strife, whereby Italian bonds yields infected my brain with visions of dust.

Buying a high end, mall based, retail chain is risky, especially in its infancy. Without a doubt, the high end retailers, COH, WSM, AAPL etc, is where the money is flowing these days, as the 1% continues to denigrate the pathetic, hapless, lives of the 99%. In all seriousness, buying TEA here may lead to a swift decapitation because the stock is gaudily valued.

At 43x 2012 EPS, the stock could easily lose 50%, similar to the pinless hand grenade action in Herb Greenberg’s taste test fav SODA. Nevertheless, all early stage growth companies trade in this manner (rich premium) until they lose credibility. Right now, TEA is being given the benefit of the doubt, despite trading below its IPO price.

Here are the hard facts.

The company opened 18 new stores in the second quarter and intend to open a total of 50 in 2011. By the end of 2011, the company should have about 200 stores, a very small footprint by any standard.

They’ve partnered with Alshaya to open retail stores throughout the middle east.

To date, they have zero stores in China. It is estimated that more than 70% of Chinese favor tea over coffee, making it a prime expansion target for TEA.

Approximately 55% of their revenue derives from the sale of loose tea, while 35% comes from merchandise.

Their same store sales are increasing at a 9% clip, buoyed by a robust e-commerce platform.

Annual sales will be in the ballpark of $160 mill, a 38% increase over last year. Net income will be around $16 mill or 0.43, an increase of 78% over last year.

Here’s the kicker.

Shorts are all over this stock, just like a variety of high growth retail. People simply do not believe in the model, considering the economic vitality of America. Where I believe they are wrong, and will get bludgeoned, is the wide array of expansion possibilities for TEA. This country is ripe for TEA to expand. For more than two decades, SBUX and copy cats have flooded every city with their asshole cafes. The time has come for a change of flavour, if I might be so bold.

Aside from the international possibilities, TEA could easily KCUP their product or even develop their own machine. That’s not the reason why you buy the stock, however. Right now, just 7 million shares lie in the float. On any upside news, this stock will flame higher, fueled by the tinder that is represented in the 40% short position.

The company has $5 million in debt and total liquidity of $35 million.

It’s hard to assign a price target to TEA because it’s so young. Clearly, they can expand in the US by at least another 500 stores and start to rollout TEA cafes, similar to SBUX–if they so choose. In my opinion, the big opportunity is in China. Like GMCR three years ago, there is tremendous upside to a story like this; but you have to be patient when buying the stock. Dollar cost averaging every quarter makes sense, unless the company is proven to be incompetent.

At a minimum, I think the stock can hit $50 by the end of 2012, based on the current trends.

I just got back from the mall at Short Hills, where ChessnWine, Mrs. Fly and I did some channel checks. Needless to say, TEA was the big winner. Additionally, we floated the idea of a special iBC seminar, hosted by Chess and RC. Obviously, such an event would be held in the financial capital of the world, NYC, in favor of a place where vagrants travel to lose money on spinning wheels.

As you can see by my positions today, Im on fucking fire. From RENN to GSVC to CIEN= pure, hot, fire. Things over at GSVC are only going to heat up, as their holdings in Twitter, Zynga, Groupon, Gilt, Chegg, Sharespost and Facebook mature. One of you idiots emailed me last week to “rescind” my recommendation on GSVC based upon their cost basis on GRPN. Let me remind you, your short positions in my stocks are not safe havens. You stand to lose a great deal of money and I will see to your head getting devoured by naked animals, in due course.

Do not be rude when visiting iBC. “The Fly” has the temper of a lit stick of dynamite. I’m liable to cut your collected heads off at a drop of a hat.

I hope you enjoy your weekends, for it might be your last. As for me, I will be dining at Michelin ranked restaurants, laughing it up with the 1%ers.

Top picks: GSVC, CIEN, RENN, NFLX, EXK.

UPDATE: I bought BORN.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBHuTCrjm_o 603 500]

After yesterday’s orgy of degeneracy, I’ve decided to, respectfully, bow out of the stock market for the day. I have a bunch of fucking positions that I didn’t want in the first place. It’s as if some pervert with a knife forced me to buy all of this shit, as I panicked the fuck out of VXX and into a goulash of gambling stocks.

I still have about 10% total short exposure, which will be dealt with at my earliest convenience. Although I didn’t take a big hit yesterday, I am now positioned to get punched in the liver, providing we trade down from here. But that’s not gonna happen is it?

The Fed has the longest line of cocaine, stretched from Maine to San Diego and Wall Street has the straw. QE3 is Bernanke’s gift to Wall Street, as no one else benefits from such a punitive act of injustice. The average Jack ends up paying more in gasoline, heating oil and groceries. And we get to live high off the hog, long millions of dollars in commodity stocks.

I don’t give a fuck.

I’m gonna do some “channel checks” today because I’m a fucking psychopath. I am going to take ridiculous anecdotal evidence and apply it empirically, ’cause that’s how I roll.

NOTE: GRPN is coming public today. It is going to ROAR. GSVC is the only publicly traded company that owns a piece, albeit it is small. Nevertheless, a successful GRPN offering opens the door to other companies on the fence to iPO. Either way, a net positive for GSVC, one of my long term positions.

Before I get into it, let me just say I am thoroughly impressed by participation in the iBC Blogger Network. In just one day, we have over 130 new bloggers signed up providing content. If you want to be heard, sign up and compete. Eventually, I will be rewarding A list bloggers. Also, if you link up your Twitter account to the blog, you stand to gain many new followers, as we auto tweet your blogs on our corporate account (18,700+ followers) with your twitter name.

iBC is a force not to be fucked with.

For the sake of fantasy, let’s assume the crisis we just endured, the China scares, the Euro gayness, were nothing more than bullshit. Again, imagine yourself in 2006 and the global growth story is in hyper speed, flattening bears along the way. After this gicockulous run, what stocks are still cheap?

For the most part you want to be long companies with high ROE ratios, one of my favorite gauges to determine if a company is well run. Then you want to compare FPE’s and PEG ratios of companies in the same industry. Lastly, go listen to the fucking conference calls or read some research to get a feel.

Here is my “best case scenario” “Fly in wonderland” list of stocks that will rip chest hairs off the bears.

AGU, NOR, KRA, HUN, FCX, DE, CNH, CPE, WLT, BTU, SWC, X, WLL, HFC, OMN, SOA, SID, MTL, TS.

Lastly, I am thoroughly impressed with TEA. Think of TEA as GMCR without the accounting scandals, selling the shit Asia likes to drink via retail stores. I will do a complete post on TEA this weekend. If they execute, the stock trades to $100 within 2 years.

A great man once said “Gentlemen: you have undertaken to cheat me. I won’t sue you, for the law is too slow. I’ll ruin you.”

Yours Truly

I know you want me to hate on this rally. I am simply going to deny your request and chalk up a big L for Admiral Fly of the SS Fucktard. My diabolical plan to make 30% for the year was going “swimmingly” until today. I’m gonna have to remix this shit, in order to catch up. Looking back, I’d take the same position 9 out 10 times. To be cautious, even short, was the high probability trade. All of you sea monkeys who nailed this rally got lucky. There was no skill involved, other than staying permanently bullish.

This is the grandest October rally since 1974. Betting on such probabilities is no different than a degenerate OTB guy betting his rent money on a pony. So you know, I harbor no regrets, only anger.

My intraday moves helped a great deal. I was supposed to go with Mrs. Fly to Short Hills mall, to escort her as she spends thousands of dollars–buying a gift for me (anniversary). However, as the Gods would have it, my youngest child decided to throw up all over the place, effectively anchoring me down for the day. It’s a good thing because my early sales of VXX and TZA saved me a lot of money. And, my TLT sale was timely too.

My purchases were much higher about an hour ago. But, for the most part, they are all up about anywhere from 1-6% from cost.

Again, the most likely scenario is a sell off tomorrow. This is just absurd. And, when we get it, I will sell the rest of my FUCKTARDED and woefully homosexual VXX position. It’s the electrical socket that I rather enjoy sticking my butter knife in, every so often. It’s an annual thing for me, losing a great sum of money in VXX. Following last years loss, I made back all of my losses, AND MORE, inside of a few short weeks.

Let’s see how perverted these Wall Streeters are, after all. With Turkey Day right around the corner, I bet they circle jerk until the cows come home.

I’ve been chasing my tail all morning, fighting to stem the blood flow out of my pockets and into yours. These occurrences are quite rare and when they happen, typically, it portends to a catastrophic terrorist attack. In other words, the blood is on your hands.

Very early on, as discussed, I sold all of my TZA and half of my VXX. I had no choice. I thought everything would be fine, as the market was already up “tonnes”. Needless to say, I was wrong–yet again. So, I started making moves to off-set what appeared to be a mini-black swan day for your Lordship. I say “mini” because I had 55% of my assets in cash.

At any rate, one of my larger holdings, TLT, is chasing hairs down the drain-hole. I don’t feel like selling it because it’s my only real downside hedge. So, I bought tremendous amounts of AG and added to my EXK. I am not done. Seeing the market wants higher, I scoured it for highly shorted stocks in sectors that are screaming. I bought a rather large block of CIEN stock.

Seeing my VXX dive another point for fun and my EXH short barrel roll higher, I bought some NFLX, mainly because no one else wants it. I am sure this is a buy I will soon regret. Oh, I almost forgot, I bought some CIS because I heard someone talking about it inside The PPT (h/t wife).

That just about sums up my day, entirely nonsensical and against all of the things I’ve been professing for about 2 days.

Right now, my allocation models are a mess and I am trying to get a handle on what the fuck is going. It’s comical. I know. You are permitted to chuckle, not laugh.

In summary, “The Fly” is buying stocks because they are going higher. It’s the most brainless stratagem in all of the realms. Whether it is destined to work or not is no longer in my hands, but with the Gods. I do not advise you follow me into battle, as some of you are without torsos from our previous excursion into TZA-territory. But know one thing, just when you think “The Fly” is finished, he rises up like a zombie and eats your brains.

Words to live by my friends. Do it.

UPDATE: I decided to part ways with TLT. And, rover boat style, I bought RENN with the proceeds. That’s right, US Treasuries to Chinese fucking burrito.

I bought 20,000 NFLX at around $81. And, I bought 150,000 CIEN.

Wish me luck! Off to dive head first into an alligator pit.

I nibbled at CIS.

I bought both, fully intending to profit from the dollars immediate demise.