So What the Fuck is Going on With $SNAP?

Snapchat said EBITDA would be at the low end of guidance, going at low as ZERO for EBITDA. They also said, and I quote: “the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated.”

This pairs well with the recent FB warning and NFLX collapse, leading all to believe the entirety of the ad spending space is in turmoil.

The reason for the 40% rape today is no one saw it coming. As a matter of fact, SNAP just offered guidance last month, so whatever the fuck is happening now happened very recently.

This is having a deleterious effect on all social platforms, also extending into ad companies like TTD, PUBM, MGNI, OMC and IPG, amongst many others. It’s doom cast all over again and shares of ROKU can’t seem to find a bottom, now trading at 3.5x sales — way way down from its high of 28x reached in 2020. These stocks are certainly “cheap” based on where they were then and where they are now. At 3.5x sales, one has to assume ROKU is worthy of money down here. But the only thing about looking at valuations now is the fact that we have yet to see sales decline. Once we get 20-30% downward revisions in sales, then perhaps we can look at valuations and determine if we’re near a bottom.

Presently, I am not hedged, long old man and a few commodities, down 84bps.

Tiger Global favs are getting smashed again today and I might need to revise my predictions for the session, seeing this hellscape materialize in real time.

I sold most of my risk and kept the UVIX position intact for now, while bulking up on old man risk averse stocks like CPB. This doesn’t seem like a forgiving tape and the idea of a bounce might be fanciful day dreaming brought on by decades of Fed programming to always believe in American exceptionalism.

The NASDAQ is -312 and the Ruble is at six year highs.

It sounds incredulous but the best rallies happen in bear markets, especially during morning gap downs. Is today going to be one of those buy the dip and go days or will we sink even lower throughout the day in a methodical decline lower amidst apathy and tragic tragedies?

We are more likely to rise from the morning decline, now indicating DOWN 200 NASDAQs by the open. Much of this decline is due to SNAP and other big social sites falling prey to the economic winds of recession.

But, at least from what I’ve gathered about this moron tape, people will fast forget and begin to buy other stuff because FOMO.

I’m not bullish per se, just trying to guesstimate what exactly is on store for the day ahead.

Gun to head opinion: we lift from opening tick and head fake higher only to later succumb to sellooors who have margin calls and we close terribly.

SIRS —

Once again I did it. I gained +306bps for the session with a timely and prescient AEMD trade that will be reserved for sale at 4am this morning. I will have you know, it is very nice to be up around 4am trading while the rest of the sloths sleep lazily as I bank coin.

It was as swell day and no real complaints, other than the fact we did not COLLAPSE THE CLOSE. My base case is for a morning lift following my catastrophic collapse.

I am long commodities, hedged via 15% position in UVIX, and 40% cash — at record all time highs of +36% YTD. I do not mean to boast, but then again — who’s gonna stop me?

Greetings and Salutations.

Today the market is being led higher by commodities, so naturally the bulls are out and about thinking UPST and SQ will be next to go. The truth is, the absolute unvarnished truth is, markets will soon collapse under the weight of 1,000 raping gorillas. There is nothing holding the market from spilling over and vomiting up whatever gains it has enjoyed the past two sessions. I am sure PERMANENT BULLS will point towards BEARISHNESS as a reason to own stocks. While it’s true, there is something valuable to learn from betting against the masses, this cannot be a long term investment stratagem worthy of serious discussion. It’s glib and also condescending. It is my belief that markets understand exactly what is happening and the blips along the way are mere footnotes in a much larger narrative at play.

We have PLUNGING sales and earnings and also commodity supply constraints. and oh by the way war.

On my next point regarding the war, Russia is winning, in spite of all of the weapons we are piling into Ukraine. If by chance Russia ends up occupying the entire country by Fall, this is going to be a national humiliation not endured since Vietnam. Because of this possibility, it is my belief America will enter the war before that permit Russia takeover Kiev.

That being said, I am aware of the fact that markets might behave counter to prevailing trends in the short term and have mostly a very bullish portfolio now, filled with commodity stocks. I am +202bps for the session in my trading and +555bps in my Quant — which is all in commodities. My best guess for tomorrow is a small lift in morning and then resumption of selling throughout the day, similar to what we saw the last time markets lifted this much on May 4th.

BUYOORS BEWARE.

It seems investors have once again concluded tech stocks aren’t worth the headache and have opted for commodities. Perhaps tomorrow they’ll conclude the economy is so soft that demand destruction will also destroy commodities!

One thing is certain: growth is slowing in tech, but perhaps not so much in commodities. If you’re bullish and have a hankering for growth, wouldn’t you be better off long commodities instead of BNPL stocks? What we need here is a buyers strike against tech and for commodity stocks to jimmy back to new record highs.

Why do we need this to happen?

I’m not sure to be honest. I’m 100% cash and have no real skin in the game. However, I’m fairly convinced that supply will be FUCKED because Russia has all of the commodities and they’re hoarding them like greedy little goblins. The west will want those commodities, but they won’t be able to get them because they’re too busy trying to KILL Russians. Therefore, prices for said items will remain ELEVATED for the foreseeable future.

Morning lads.

Some insane fucking headlines this morning, starting off with the shit coming out from Biden’s mouth in Japan.

Here we go.

BIDEN: CHINA DOES NOT HAVE THE JURISDICTION TO USE FORCE TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN

BIDEN SAYS HE WOULD COMMIT AMERICAN FORCES TO CONFRONT CHINA IF THEY ATTACKED TAIWAN pic.twitter.com/X4xS6n6wA7

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 23, 2022

China’s Foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin:

– China rejects, deplores comments
– US is playing with fire
– There’s one China; Taiwan part of it
– No room for concession on Taiwan issues

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 23, 2022

RUBLE HITS 4 YR HIGHS

RUSSIA TO INTRODUCE THE RUBLE IN OCCUPIED KHERSON REGION – TASS

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS NOTED ‘WORRISOME DECLINE’ IN DIESEL INVENTORIES IN NORTHEAST IN RECENT WEEKS

Indonesia summoned Britain’s ambassador on Monday to explain the raising of a lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) flag at its embassy, and urged foreign missions to respect local “sensitivities” following a backlash among conservatives.

BRITISH EMBASSY IN INDONESIA FLYING RAINBOW FLAG pic.twitter.com/nzDAsERDjS

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 23, 2022

On the war front, it is decidedly Russian dominance in the Donbas. The momentum has completely shifted once Russia began to fight a conventional styled war.

I sold out from both my MONKEYPOX stocks at 4am for big gains, now long TZA and CHK. I’ll likely move to cash at the open and sit out most of the session, having already made 1% for the day.

I always hated when I was heavily long and people would say, after a large drop, “we need to flush out lower, the selling has been too orderly.” Now I’m the thing I hated most, a bearshitter wishcasting for grimmer days to come.

I see no reason to save the host. There is nothing at all still redeemable about American society, so therefore I find nothing wrong or immoral with hoping for its demise.

Naturally it’s not the fault of the people per se. It’s the govt and their policies. But then again, half the people endorse anything the govt wants and the other half doesn’t think it’s their problem to fix anything. So what has happened almost in a straight like since 1965 is the steady and consistent destruction of America’s moral core, replaced with a glib society of hedonistic slobs who concern themselves only with comfort. This is translated into the stock market with jackasses like Ross Gerber and his plastic face saying plastic things with empty words backed up by nothing but vapid emotions due to a sense of entitlement that has been embedded in his Californian being thanks to decades of wealth and carelessness only hedged by the occasional virtue signaling for purpose of self aggrandizement.

You’re gonna need another vaccine.

#monkeypox PSA ?

—Early indications that 6 people from a single flight caught it from 1 other person.
—If R0 is consistently above 2, we have another global pandemic on our hands.
—After smallpox was eradicated, smallpox vaccines were no longer standard care for millennials. https://t.co/902mFPXxQI

— Andre Watson ? (@nanogenomic) May 21, 2022

Russia is permanently banning nearly 1,000 Americans, including President Biden and Vice President Harris, from entering the country

RETAIL APOCALYPSE INTENSIFIES ###

*AMAZON WANTS TO SHED AT LEAST 10 MILLION SQUARE FEET OF SPACE

*AMAZON AIMS TO SUBLET, END WAREHOUSE LEASES AMID COOLING SALES$AMZN

— iBankCoin (@iBankCoin4tw) May 21, 2022

Life as you knew it prior to the BLM riots of 2020 is over and never coming back. We are in fact now living in a dystopian hellscape, where basic common sense, bare minimum stuff, is now considered brave and unorthodox.

BILL MAHER ON RECENT AMERICAN TRANS TRENDS
pic.twitter.com/UBZzZ2E9fM

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 21, 2022

If you find pleasure in the collapse of America — you simply aren’t thinking this through well enough. Your hatred for the architects of our collapse is valid but you’re forgetting they’re also, in fact, genocidal lunatics — so what will be left of us is a carcass with only glimpses left remaining of a great civilization that once ruled here. Our testaments to greatness, our cities, achievements and our monuments, will be destroyed and replaced with post-modernism vile refuse. It’s easy to not care or ignore the signs of degradation, chalking it up to “progressiveness” — but there is nothing progressive about a society spiraling out of control downward amidst record illegal immigration, profligate spending, non-stop wars, and media propelled psyops to make everyone think the water they’re in isn’t boiling and oh boy look at that new Fendi bag and new Jordans I must buy — immediately after I cut my dick off and sign a lease for a new 400 sq ft NYC apartment for $3,000 per mo, afforded by my brand new community advocate role at Twitter paying $175,000 per annum with benefits and free drinks and food at the company HQ, should I choose brave it into work with all of the anti-maskers and risk catching cold again.

NOTABLE LOSERS FOR THE WEEK THAT PAST:

TGT -29% BBWI -24% DDS -23% BYND -22% ROST -22% EAT -20% DLTR -20% FIVE -20% KSS -20% WMT -20% DG -19% WOOF -19% BOOT -18% BBY -16% COST -16% NET -16% BJ -16% M -16% ASO -16%

FULL RECAP BELOW, LIKE AND SUBSCRIBE.

A miraculous turn of events has led the markets straight up into the final hour of trade. Before the miracle rally Stocklabs was OS and I had intended to buy TQQQ, which would’ve been nice but I was distracted by an urgent phone call. With the 500 point rally and the NASDAQ V-shaping higher, I am once again BEARISH on the tape in the short term. These sort of rallies do nothing but delay the inevitable flush out right down the fucking drain and into the sea.

All day we had Monkey Pox scares and I took a nice 10% weighted trade in GOVX for a 17% gain, which would’ve been 100% had I waited a little. Nevertheless, I am content with my 2% daily gain without ever having more than 20% of my money allocated. I closed with TZA at 10%, TNXP (Monkey Pox) 5% and CHK at 5%. My returns for the week was 3.2%, now up 5.4% for May and +33% for the year. My intention is to remain low volume during this rotation/liquidation and only take larger stabs during periods of high conviction.

Reason being: Almost every earnings call is bearish. Commodity stocks are no longer trading inverse to the markets and aren’t safe. The safe havens in secular stocks have been uprooted thanks to the rushed decapitation of the consumer, vis a vie TGT, WMT, COST, BURL, ROST etc.

Permanent bulls are just lazy thinkers and have resorted on time to save them from their poor trading skills. For over a decade the market has rewarded people for being patient, providing they bought good stocks. I do believe “this time is different” — mainly because the Fed is now working against the interests of the market. Plus, the war in Russia/Ukraine is going to have profound ancillary effects, such that you will be eating bugs by next year.