POWDER KEG: SHIT IS ABOUT TO POP OFF

The markets were down today but not nearly as much as they should be, looking at the fucking news. The headlines could not get worse and I am surprised by so many on Wall Street for sleep walking into what appears to be almost assured mutual destruction. It’s very easy to mock and deride the Russian war effort in Ukraine, showcasing their losses and broken down equipment — from the comforts of our plush offices. Should the west decide to wage war against them, it’s assured they will not be as kind to us as they are being in the Ukraine and total fucking war will be waged from coast to coast and all cities in the west would be targets and all males over the age of 18 subject to compulsory military service.

Oh you think I’m just dredging up bullshit scare mongering nonsense?

Observe the comments from EU’s Borrell today and then Russia’s Lavrov:

EU’s Borrell:

“This war will be won on the battlefield. Additional €500 million from the EPF are underway. Weapon deliveries will be tailored to Ukrainian needs.”

Lavrov:

“Borrell’s statement has significantly changed the rules of the game”. EU leaders have never before publicly prioritized military action over diplomacy.”

The groundwork is being laid out to condition you for war with Russia. You will think they’re weak and we might be able to beat them out of the Ukraine. But scores of people will die in the process and the soft touch approach to their “special military operation” will be replaced with scorched earth. Believe me, I understand full well our country can conduct brutal campaigns in the name of democracy and/or freedom. But I keep harkening back to this voice in my head that is asking the same question over and over again: “WHY THE FUCK SHOULD I CARE ABOUT UKRAINE?”

It’s very sad indeed that their country is being uprooted and the blame for that rests solely on the shoulders of Zelensky and its leaders. The decision was made after 2014 to eschew their powerful ancestral brethren in Russia for America and Europe. While the cosmopolitans in Kiev basked in western crony capitalism — the fucks in Moscow were getting irate. They did not read the room and now we have a fucking war laying waste to the country and the fucks in Kiev, who could not read the room, are trying their best to rope the world into a war with Russia — all for the sake of retaining power and their regime.

Why should my sons die for Kiev?

Ukraine crisis could slash global trade growth by half in 2022: WTO

An Israeli airstrike was carried out from over northern Lebanon. Syrian air defenses responded to the strike.

U.S. aircraft carrier deploys off Korean peninsula amid tensions with North Korea

JAPAN: FOUR CHINESE COAST GUARD SHIPS HAVE ENTERED OUR TERRITORIAL WATERS.

BOJ OFFICIAL: JAPAN’S WHOLESALE PRICES ROSE 7.3% IN FISCAL 2021, MARKING FASTEST PACE OF INCREASE SINCE COMPARABLE DATA BECAME AVAILABLE IN FISCAL 1981

U.S. TELLS NON-ESSENTIAL GOVERNMENT WORKERS TO LEAVE SHANGHAI

APPROXIMATELY 200 MILLION PEOPLE ARE IN LOCKDOWN IN CHINA

Mariupol’s mayor says more than 10,000 civilians have died in the Russian siege of the city – AP

UK’S FOREIGN MINISTER TRUSS TWEETS: REPORTS THAT RUSSIAN FORCES MAY HAVE USED CHEMICAL AGENTS IN AN ATTACK ON THE PEOPLE OF MARIUPOL. ANY USE OF SUCH WEAPONS WOULD BE A CALLOUS ESCALATION IN THIS CONFLICT AND WE WILL HOLD PUTIN AND HIS REGIME TO ACCOUNT.

BLINKEN CITES HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN INDIA BY `SOME’ OFFICIALS

Ukraine says ‘tens of thousands’ have died in Mariupol

DEPUTY OF KIEV CITY COUNCIL: IN THE CITY OF MARIUPOL, RUSSIAN FORCES EMPLOYED A POISONOUS CHEMICAL OF UNKNOWN ORIGIN AGAINST UKRAINIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIANS. IT WAS DROPPED BY A HOSTILE UAV.

RUSSIAN ANTI SHIP MISSILE SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS FINLAND

AUSTRIAN CHANCELLOR NEHAMMER SAYS I GENERALLY HAVE NO POSITIVE IMPRESSION FROM TALKS WITH PUTIN

OPEC SEC GEN CALLS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION TO PROMOTE A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Lavrov:

Russia’s special operation is designed to put an end to the US course of domination in the world.

Ukraine is effectively a war between unipolarity and multipolarity.

SENIOR US DEFENCE OFFICIAL: RUSSIA APPEARS TO BE REINFORCING POSITIONS NORTHWEST OF DONETSK.

Here is the timeline of current events regarding Twitter.

Elon takes a 9.1% active stake in the company, proposes changes in public — CEO of Twitter appears to be happy.

Elon declines to take board seat which would limit his stake to just 15%.

Elon begins a parade of trolling tweets designed to cause tumult inside the HQ of the Skittle Haired social media denizen of public discord and censorship for public policy aka Twitter.

Most of these “top” accounts tweet rarely and post very little content.

Is Twitter dying? https://t.co/lj9rRXfDHE

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 9, 2022

pic.twitter.com/TW2lLQakE5

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 7, 2022

And then this iced the cake.

With Twitter now becoming the laughing stock of Elon’s brigades, it has become increasingly clear that perhaps, just maybe, Musk intends to turn his sub 10% stake into a much greater one in the name of freedom of speech. It would be nearly impossible to fend off a hostile Musk attack on Twitter. For a billionaire like Musk, it would be the ultimate trophy and to all of the very sensitive blue haired gentry inside Twitter, perhaps your time will be best spent to find your own sociopathic billionaire who is interested in committing billions of dollars to a hostile takeover of the public square, mostly for laughs.

ELON LIKED THIS TWEET $TWTR pic.twitter.com/6MD7OwTYAn

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 11, 2022

They have reportedly called for a “day of rest” at Twitter today.

employees have a previously-scheduled day of rest today, which is well-timed, as the vibe is super stressed, they tell us.
Twitter employees: my DMs are open if you want to help explain what it's been like.

— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) April 11, 2022

I am long TWTR and eagerly awaiting the proxy battle.

A lot of people are overlooking this — due to the small size of the company. But I think it’s notable that Thomas Bravo felt it was okay to throw some money out there for a premium deal, just above of $6b to acquire fast growing SAAS co SAIL.

Thoma Bravo will pay $65.25 for each Sailpoint share outstanding, which represents a 31.6% premium to Friday’s closing price of $49.59. The deal includes a “go-shop” period, until 11:59 p.m. Eastern on May 16, in which SailPoint can actively solicit and consider alternative buyout deals.

On this news, we are seeing both SAAS and security stocks move higher, bucking the overall market trend and confusing the fuck out of the algos. On one hand, this is a very risk off day with the NASDAQ -240. On the other, we have 46% breadth and many tech stocks are up.

This is a pot luck type of day and if you’re up, congrats.

Other tech stocks pinned at highs include:

PING, MU, WDAY, TWTR, SPLK, AKAM, Z (EXTRA RUSSIA), PLAN, FIVN, SMAR, GWRE, DBX, RPD, QLYS, FRSH, BL, SPT, CERT, AMPL, XM.

The big question is — do we chase strong tech here, buy the commodity dip — or just short the whole fucking kit and caboodle?

This is getting very little attention as we’re mostly transfixed on geopolitical events — but the bond rout continues unabated. Not only are treasuries getting routed, but CMBS, High Yield, Munis etc. The entire zero interest rate paradigm is being reversed, all of a sudden without brakes.

So who’s taking losses aside from bond funds? Major institutional holders, old fucks relying on bonds for income, pensions, foreign sovereign funds etc.

Oddly enough, we have heard very little about bond desks and if this price action is causing losses. People are acting as if this shit isn’t happening, like it’s totally fucking normal for mortgage rates to jump 50% in a few months. No big fucking deal – keep buying housing stocks because everyone is rich and everyone is pay all cash anyway so rates can fuck off.

Oil is down more than 4% at the open, causing me to liquidate all of my oil positions at the open. They can always rally back, and have often done so, but the pin action in crude has been fairly dreadful. Almost every other commodity has performed better, notably natural gas.

Perhaps this is phase 2 of the economic war against Russia — flood the markets with as much oil as possible to reduce their net income and hurt the Ruble.

It’s also worth noting the Ruble is -4% against the dollar today.

Thus far the price action is brutal with almost all commodity stocks drilled lower. The pockets of strength are found in airlines, retail, casinos, and even tech. Perhaps we’ll reverse and run higher today, everything but commodities — one of those days. Or markets will remain weak with bids building back up in commodities as the day builds. Whatever the case, it’s probably best to have a large cash position now.

Coming off what could’ve been the best oversold flag since I created it in 2008, Stocklabs spit out another 12 month OS on Friday and I don’t believe it’s going to work.

I bought TQQQ out of obligation and respect for the signal which has made me so much money over the years. But truthfully, I feel we are about to tip over into the blades and get ground out. In fairness to the process of playing the signal, you almost want it to be wrong during the first one. When an OS signal hits its begins a 10 day cycle, from which I purchase 33% sized positions in a leveraged ETF product for upside insanity. If another OS hits inside the 10 day cycle, I add another tranche. Last cycle I was able to be FULLY LONG TQQQ into the melt up and ended +23% for my troubles. Should be COLLAPSE next week, I will get an opportune to average down and perhaps it’ll all work out in the end. Nevertheless, if we do bounce hard — I will be selling my TQQQ on the 5th day after the last purchase.

My trading account will continue to focus on commodities, especially non oil related. I will only take tech trades for extreme oversold bounces and will try my best not to get lured back into a false sense of security, pining for better times when the NASDAQ was impervious to news and we just went to work to collect gains every single day.

While not easy and certainly not a bull market, Le Fly, as he’s popularly known in France, remains, inexorably, at recourd highs.

For the first time in modern history, the US dollar reserve status is being threatened. The axis appears to be BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).

BRICS TO CREATE THEIR OWN FINANCIAL MESSAGING SYSTEM || INDEPENDENT RATING AGENCY FOR BRICS WILL BE APPOINTED || BRICS TO ACCELERATE WORK ON THEIR OWN PAYMENT CARDS – SILUANOV

I am sure we will warn all parties of seemingly disastrous SANCTIONS should they defy us. You do not go against the interests of the US govt and live to speak about it. This is where we are in the Empire post modernism — lashing out at others who threaten us.

This today from Medvedev:

“The result will be a destroyed world order and extremely heavy consequences for the global economy. It will be clear to everyone that the supposed effectiveness of sanctions is an absolute lie.”

Back in 1999 one Russian predicted these events.

ZHIRINOVSKY 1999 ON NATO
pic.twitter.com/YvtJIeBox5

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 9, 2022

And in US news:

#BREAKING: The Walt Disney Company needs to "get with it" and cater to a Generation Z that is substantially "queerer" than previous generations, a company executive said in a recent leaked clip.https://t.co/wyZx5le7D6

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) April 8, 2022

You’re all caught up to date. Tomorrow I will do a market related post and plan for next week.

The NASDAQ was castrated for 185, while the Ruble gained 5% against the dollar and Russia called up another 60,000 soldiers to intensify their war on Ukraine. Nothing about any of the news is boolish — yet like a moron I squandered a perfectly terrible day because I believed stocks could bounce. Mid-day I bought a slew of tech stocks, only to sell them off miserably for losses a few hours later. Don’t hate me for being aspirational.

I kept my commodity holdings and bought more and ended the session +0.04%, +60bps for the week. My Quant was higher by more than 3% because its all in on oils. YTD, my gains stand near +30%.

The first week of the contest ended in spectacular fashion with one lad ALREADY DOUBLING his money, followed by a few others very far away. As you can see below — yes that is the Belarusian dictator LUKASHENKO in the contest with a portfolio called SHORT THE WEST, +13% for the week.

This marks one year since Stocklabs launched and although we had some technical hiccups along the way, we are firmly positioned for some real innovation in year two. We are presently working on an options platform and also an AI/ML set of tools that will really blow your minds when I release it. I do intend to let all members alpha trial this new tools before launch, so stay tuned for updates throughout the year.

Thank you for a great first year of trading and fun inside Stocklabs. We have quite the group inside there and although it can at times unravel into anarchy and cataclysm — it truly is a gem and very valuable to me — not only from the vast sums of money I make from it — but of the long lasting friendships (Ryan Reynolds gif)

We actually hit 10 yr OVERSOLD inside Stocklabs this morning, a feat VERY RARELY achieved and not seen since the COVID lows. It looked very grim this morning and I was a bit perturbed and this caused me to reshuffle things around. DO NOT FEAR, I am making money today — but this isn’t the point of the blog.

Today’s leading industries

We are all very rich now, see. I am looking at different homes now because there is a specific area of Raleigh I want to move into and all of the homes are bidding +30% ABOVE ASK — all cash offers — SITE UNSEEN. There is no need to view the home, see — you just click and buy. Buy now, pay later. The housing BOOM has reached fantasy levels here. Folks bought homes in January and flipping them now for cool and clean 25% gains, without even a reno. Sure rates are heading up — but these are ALL CASH OFFERS by very rich northerners escaping their tax hell holes. This all makes for a wondrous investment climate, amidst supply shortages and new home build delays. Given the population increase in the Raleigh area, why I see the home values rising another 100% within the next few years alone.

Small 4500sq homes I was eyeballing at $650k just two years ago are now fetching $1.5m, deservedly so. This morning many stocks looked terrible but now that their shares are HIGHER — they look so much better.

Food prices worldwide rose 13% last month, the most on record. And looking at data like this — one has to accustom oneself to a brave new world of need and want and perhaps tumult. If you fuck around with our iPhones — we might get irritated. But when you fuck around with our food — we will kill you, or so goes the mantra paraphrased by me to suggest food shortages and inflation is a key driver of civilian discord.

UN agency says food prices rose by 13% last month, the fastest pace ever recorded.

We have been here before, rapid inflation was enjoyed in the late 70s and into the 80s — until the Fed crushed it with mind boggling interest rate hikes.

Fed Funds/Inflation rate

Under a scenario, such as now, where interest rates are still under 1% and inflation at 7% and climbing — one has to assume, at least based off historical precedent, rates will be raised to match inflation if not exceed them. Are we looking down the barrel of 7% interest rates, for fucks sake? Imagine trying to service the US debt of $30 trillion+ with rapidly spiraling higher rates. Imagine the housing market with mortgages at 15%.

Today KR caught up upgrade at BofA citing them as a winner in the inflation trade.

BofA Securities’ Robert Ohmes notes, “Our new $75 PO (based on 18x) reflects rising potential for upward EPS revisions as accelerating food inflation drives sales upside while KR’s expense structure is contained by $1bn targeted cost savings, & the cycling of COVID costs.”

Aside from grocers, I would imagine all commodity plays would also garner appeal during a rapid inflationary period. But it’s going to be hard, as governments actively meddle to suppress prices with controls in order to keep the status quo going.