US INFLATION DATA COMES IN AS EXPECTED, MARKETS ON PACE FOR FIRST WEEKLY GAIN SINCE MARCH

The PCE came in hot as fuck at 6.3%, but as expected so futures took off. The NASDAQ is looking to gain around 140 at the open, which would mean the overall market is on pace for its first weekly gain since March.

On the issue of inflation, Jim Biden is set to forgive $10,000 in student loans, so don’t give up on the $100 tomato idea just yet.

Imagine the hubris should we extend said gains into yet another week? It’s not our job to fight trends, but to obey them and on occasion predict the future. If inflation data didn’t scare the market down and all of the bad earnings didn’t scare the market down, it’s possible the bad news is baked in and markets want higher.

That being said, be on the lookout for new shoes to drop, new bad news to worry about. I have nothing to offer you now, but the way bear markets work — there’s always something to get in the way of a nice rally.

NOTE: I’m not a believoor and do not ascribe to the notion we have bottomed.

Fridays have been woefully dreadful for the market, especially ahead of a long weekend with Monday off.

NASDAQ IS UP JUST TWO OF THE PAST 10 FRIDAYS *** $QQQ pic.twitter.com/OAcuRHAgD0

— Stocklabs (@stocklabsapp) May 26, 2022

I closed +1.74% and at the close, since I didn’t want to sell any of my 10% positions, I threw down a 25% position in SQQQ — which should cover me should markets decide to cascade lower tonight and into tomorrow.

I have no desire to be greedy and I am grateful for being able to navigate the market with grace and poise, now +41% for the year, +12.2% for May. I was always going to make money in a bear tape and there was never a matter of if but if when, for those who’ve been following me from the beginning. To all of those who quit Stocklabs in favor of cartoons, find solace in knowing your subpar thinking has landed you in an inexorable subpar existence of having gone down the wayward path of Morton’s Fork — because you never had a choice in the matter — biologically predispositioned to make poor choices — sad and fat.

We will not get markets running hot and cryptos being dismantled at the same time. Today ETH bottomed out at 1720 and quickly moved higher — now encroaching on 1900. My position in ETH has been dwindling down since the beginning of the year, having accumulated more than 200 sub $300 — I chose to sell in 1/12th lots until nothing was left by 2023. Admittedly, I wished I had sold it all — but this is the game plan I have and will stick to it. I am tempted, however, to freeze sales should ETH get around $1400, which I believe will be met with substantial support.

We have the markets running hot today and although I am reticent to be bullish now, into Friday, I am going with the flow — now +1.75% for the session.

If we do run higher again tomorrow, you should expect a continuation of this bottoming action in cryptos. I am playing this via miner MARA.

Greetings,

I am +165bps for the session, not because I am bullish and like stocks, but because I am a consummate professional. My gains now crest above 40% for the year and I have been sitting at all time RECOURD highs for weeks now. I tell you these things, not to boast or to make you feel bad about your present situation, but instead to serve as a pretext for the following things I am about to say.

This rally is being spearheaded by retail, believe it or not. The assumption markets are making now is — MEH things aren’t that bad, might as well stick my cock in this here. Bear in mind, most traders are flatly doing this without protection or even thinking about the negative ramifications.

This is what we do know.

Earnings have been an abomination and Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. We are only hoping for the best here, pinning everything on the notion that inflation will taper and the Fed will swoop in to save the day.

MEANWHILE, WTI is +3.6% and natural gas encroaches on $10.

We aren’t going to paper ourselves out of this mess, not this time.

I AM NOT SUGGESTING you go out there and short now. But what I am telling you is to not be fooled and believe this is the bottom and all will be well — because it’s not going to be all well and good and we haven’t even begun to see unemployment rise.

Therefore, I remain long, but reserve the right to hedge at any moment. I do believe accounts should be hedged on just about every single session near the close and those hedges closed out before 9:40am the next day. Again, we are not naive or stupid and do not fall for the same parlour tricks that have worked before — because this time IS sort of different and the downside to the markets are in line with the expected earnings guide downs — which I estimate to be in the magnitude of 25-35%.

For now, however, we have a respite.

Enjoy.

The Ruble is down 10% today. The US seized an Iranian oil tanker. AVGO is buying BRCM. NVDA is green after collapsing 10% last night. All of the leadership tech stocks and also the trash ones are up. Even the meme stocks are going again.

Q1 GDP was revised down 1.5% from 1.4%, yet no one gives a fuck.

See what’s happening? The nerds are attempting revenge and you can find said nerds in the most heavily shorted stocks.

I allocated into heavily shorted stocks, reserving 40% cash for eventualities. It would seem, at least early on, markets want higher.

To be honest, I had a few drinks last night and am out of the loop this morning. I sold everything and am 100% cash in my trading, having booked small losses and surprisingly one of them was in SOXS. I was certain NVDA would stay down, but it looks like a classic red to green reversal. I’d be very uneasy staying short after a bellwether like that started to go up in the face of bad news.

I’ll get my house in order here and try to give a better assessment later on. My initial instinct is to first cash up and avoid shorting.

Greetings

Just 1.5 years left on this site before I impose a self ban. The markets are behaving well without drama, so I doubled up on my current positions, added a SOXS hedge, and will call it a day. I might double up or down on SOXS depending on my mood.

Commodity markets, FOREX markets, stock markets can all fuck off for a day, as I have no desire whatsoever to trade on this fine day.

My current positions, a birthday present from me to you.

Cheers!

UPDATE: FLY BOOKS NOW COMBINED INTO ONE HARDCOVER BOOK WITH NEW EPILOGUE

We have a 9 handle on natty now and we’re only getting started. These prices are BEFORE a Russian embargo. Once the EU is ordered by the US to stop buying Russian gas — then you’ll see the real spike and you will also see how it decimates your natural gas utility bill the coming winter, as America converts all of its gas into LNG to export to Europe for big fat profits.

The continent of Europe, more or less, is a useless sack of shit that cannot sustain itself on energy, food, or defense. They instead depend on others to do it for them.

I happen to be long several natty plays this morning, but will be selling all of my stocks at the open, since today is my birthday and all.

Here are the top rated natty stocks in Stocklabs.

Top ranked natural gas stocks in ?@stocklabsapp? pic.twitter.com/lVgQKgz8YM

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 25, 2022

I’ve blogged enough today, plus I was busy combining both of my books into one hardcover — which should be ready for your libraries in about 5 days.

If you’re confused about the market and why you’re losing, do this.

If you had X amount of dollars to invest now, would you buy the stocks in your portfolio now? If the answer is no, sell them. If you own all high tech growth stocks, you’re only hope is for a miracle and this is a great way to lose money.

Invest in stocks TRENDING HIGHER not lower. Why knife catch SHOP when CHK is going higher daily?

HEDGE EVERY SINGLE CLOSE.

Do you see this?

NASDAQ HOURLY RETURNS FOR MAY, via @stocklabsapp pic.twitter.com/LTANdEnF93

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 24, 2022

The vast majority of the losses are in the early mornings, whereas the rallies in the afternoons. Why head into any trading day where the bias is down without a hedge to profit from that direction?

CLOSE OUT SAID HEDGES IN MORNING alongside most if not all of your stocks.

No need to over-trade. If you open higher by 1%, book it. Close them all out and wait for the afternoon to position again.

This is a toxic tape and only the very best can navigate it, so why pretend you can handle the tick tock?

I closed +54bps on the session, leveraged at 122% long old man stocks with downside hedges.

Listen to me. The halcyon days of Chamath and other FUCKED FOR FACES on Twitter providing you with winning stock ideas is over. This is the era of the Orc and Middle Earth is a busting volcano of danger and doom festooned all over your net worth.

You need to understand that GROWTH IS SLOWING. Therefore growth stocks aren’t reasonable investments.

Today in Stocklabs only secular stocks that are risk averse are performing. This is impressive since the NASDAQ is battleaxed down 330. Notice how the Dow is only down 60?

Here are some risk averse stocks for you to peruse:
TR, MCD, CPB, GOLD, LMT, K, KR, GIS, AEP, MKC just to name a few.

Earlier today I went ALL IN on this trade, doubling up on my risk averse names an now stand before you UP 5bps for the session.

I couldn’t lose money even if I tried.