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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

MOAR WAR IS GOOD

Celebrating America’s 14th consecutive year at war, President Obama asked congress for permission (lolz) to attack ISIS. What’s especially innovative about this new enemy is the sheer stupidity of it. After we left Iraq, a power vacuum was established. All of the crazies broke out from prison and took up arms in the name of a mythical creature.

These escapees soon banded together to form a standing army and carved out their own little paradise on earth, known as The Islamic State. In their spare time, they get to toss homosexuals off roof tops, stone women to death, and behead countless infidels for not praying to the correct mythical creature.

Now enter the US military apparatus. We’ve had a rough time dealing with terrorist organizations because they like to blend in with civilians and blow up cafes when we least expect it. But this ISIS group isn’t into subtlety. They actually believe that their stupid little army of roaming idiots can stand up to the full might and power of the largest military-industrial complex the world has ever known. We are going to slaughter them by the bushel. Their guts will be used to grease the treads of our tanks (extra Patton).

This battle to come against the dumbest army on the planet is going to top off Obama’s legacy as the single best Commander in Chief since FDR. Not only that, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will soar because of it, paving the way for a future Presidency for none other than Mrs. Michelle Obama.

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This Range is Tight

Not much doing today, unless you enjoy watching paint dry. As for me, I’ve had plumbers plumbing away at the kitchen ceiling since yesterday, them and their monkey wrenches. After they’re done, then my sheetrock guy, from the Ukraine, comes to make everything look like new. He fucking hates Putin.

Almost 70% of stocks are lower today and GPRO, YELP and DDD are popping up on my momo screens. This is all wrong.

By the way, go check the earnings calendar to make sure you’re not indadvertedly riding swing trades into earnings. It’s no joke out there. Stocks are being executed for missing whisper numbers, especially those with high expectations.

I’ve spent the majority of my time researching regional bank stocks. Under the radar, there has been a renaissance in regional banking, with revenues and earnings going through the roof. Some of these banks are growing revenues and earnings at 40% clips. Should rates rise and the yield curve steepen, there could very well be a wave of consolidation that permits these companies to merge and become super-regionals.

You want my list? I bet you do, you fucking lazy clams. Well, I am not giving it to you.

Okay, I’ll give you a few: CUBI, EGBN, PB.

There’s a lot more; you should go check out the sector.

Late afternoon prediction: Dow closes down 57, SPY down 2, Nasdaq up 9.

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Crude Pot Luck

It’s nearly impossible to know where oil is going next. Seasonality says we go higher until April. Be that as it may, one cannot be cocksure about such a plan, post apocalypse of oil. I still own a shit load of oil stocks and that will certainly crush my bones into dust if oil were to, let’s say, submarine down to $30. But that’s why I made AAL my second largest position, to hedge such a black-out scenario.

I cannot believe we are still discussing Greece after all of these years. I think it’s clear as the day is long, austerity doesn’t work and the fucking Germans are still evil. Either way, we’ll get through this and the end of the world is not at hand. When the end does come, trust me when I tell you, I will be the first to find out.

I don’t have any early predictions for you this morning. Just trade the market in front of you, not the one you envisioned as a wee lad growing up in Belfast. I think we have a few more down days in crude stocks before a sharp reversal. In the meantime, airlines should do well, specifically those unhedged like AAL and ALGT.

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LET’S KEEP IT REAL, SHALL WE?

Most of you punks were popping pimples, or grabbing your balls, during the Asian contagion through dot com bubbles. Some of you survived the 2008 collapse, only because you didn’t have bread in the game. Most of you still don’t have bread in the game, yet claim to be traders. Even more of you unskilled laborers shit on Wall street daily, yet spend inordinate amounts of time reading up on investing legends in a half-baked attempt to achieve personal success.

Very simply, you’re out of your depth. This business isn’t for everyone and I’ll be damned if I am going to listen to the likes of you, swinging like an idiot on a vine from one 3x ETF to the next, parading around the internets as an authority on risk management.

Listen to me, son: if you don’t have an idea why you’re buying XYZ, then you’re just pissing in the wind. Where is your religion?

“The Fly” has a true religion and he is emboldened by what he sees now. All of the things he’s been looking for are coming together now. The table is being set and grandeur awaits.

Back to the matter of you. Why would I take baseball hitting instruction from a guy who never even made it onto his varsity high school team? Eventually, the gig is up and your lack of sophistication will lead to your own undoing.

I’ve been doing this shit for too long to even think about what other people are doing and how their methods continuously fuck them out of grabbing the big prize when the big prize is for the grabbing.

You only get a handful of chances to capture big wins, in any given year. You have to be out there, drawing the punches, taking the hits, and leveraging into a storm to capture it.

Are you man enough to take the hits?

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Let’s Be Rational About This

The motherfucking market is going to explode to the upside, leaving trails of bodies strewn across Wall Street, all of the bearish varietal. We will celebrate this very evening over plates of rare beef and glasses brimming with the reddest of wines; for tomorrow we drink the blood of our enemies and nourish our muscles with the amino acids of those who’ve tried, and failed, to displace us.

Ten thousand years of QE is upon you. Your face is so stupid it makes me want to punch it.

Nothing can stop this market, not oil, not greece and certainly not earnings. Let the good times roll and may the city square be filled with a bustling crowd this evening, all in attendance for the castrations to come.

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BIOTECH STOCKS ARE ON FIRE

The medicine man, for the win.

My current biotech holdings consist of NDRM, GILD, AMGN (big pharma), JAZZ, ICPT, SGEN and I own a few hospital names like LPNT and HCA. I am a man of many hats. But I will tell you, this sector isn’t done going higher.

Just the other day, this industry was down in the dirt, Hybrid score wise (The PPT), and has come back strong since then. At the moment, there is momentum following the space, especially found in stocks like AGIO, BLUE and KITE.

Here are some other names that are down over the past two weeks, that might bounce soon.

ENTA
AKBA
LJPC
BIND
NDRM
CGIX
XENE

Frankly, there’s a lot of them. The names that have been “go to” names in the space are all performing today. I am talking about AGIO, BLUE, KITE, XON, ICPT, MDVN, ACAD, JUNO and GEVA. Perhaps build a basket by combining the two.

Also, with yields on the rise, banks are in play. Remember, when the yield curve steepens, profits at the banks do too. I am eying SBNY, BAC and a small regional bank named CUBI.

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BEAR CASE REJECTED

How the fuck does YELP guide up today, a few days removed from their lackluster quarter and no one wonder why this is? I am long the stock, so I am not hating here. But, clearly, this is some fuckery for the record books.

I am up about 0.4% for the day, near year to date highs of +5%. Its been a slow crawl and I certainly do not have the patience of this chop-fest shit. I want my money and I want it in large denominations. I’ve always been a high beta guy, ever since the day I was born, nearly killing my mother. Some of you opt out for the safe road, traveling at Grandmother type speeds. “The Fly” speeds down rocky roads, with tires made from titanium, heading straight for bricked walls.

Every once in a while, I dent up the car a bit, catch a flat; but then before long, I am on the open road again, killing people traveling by foot with my sword.

Very soon, this market is going to take decisive action. When it does, the good folks from iBankCoin will be here to capitalize, pawning all of those who’ve taken the long road by foot.

I will have their skulls hanging from the end of my mace in one month hence.

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MURPHY’S LAW FOR BREAKFAST

Motherfuckers.

I woke up to a pinhole leak in my ceiling, an issue I knew would haunt me at some point in my life. See, when I bought this piece of shit house and fixed up the dining room ceilings real nice, coffered style, I found out the hard way the copper piping was of low quality, likely chinese made horseshit. I ended up having to rip the entire ceiling down, stretching all the way into the kitchen. Lo and behold, in my infinite wisdom, I told the plumber to not rip my entire kitchen ceiling down, despite that same bastard chinese copper piping living above the sheeted rock.

Well, guess what?

THE ENTIRE FUCKING CEILING IS COMING DOWN NOW, whether I like it or not.

I feel like going Macho Man Randy Savage today, offering elbows and leg drops to inanimate objects lying around my house.

I see the market is up and Greece is super stupid again. Airlines up and oil stocks are down. Hence is the life of a man living with a time machine. Your stupid charts pick up what I already knew days in advance.

DEVELOPING…

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It’s Time to Fly High Again

Airlines are at rock bottom hybrid levels, courtesy of Captain Broccoli aka The PPT.

Airlines

Hybrid levels are super depressed, at the same time levels for oil and gas stocks are near the high end of the range. The range-bound Gods demand satisfaction. Fade oil; get long airlines is the trade.

Top picks: AAL, ALGT, VA

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