Welcome to a Scared New World

Yahoo is being valued at negative $1 billion, after its BABA and Yahoo Japan spinoffs. German 30 yr yields are under 1% and shorter duration sovereign yields are negative in most western democracies. Our 10yr yield is under 1.7% and TLT is at new highs.

Oil is cratering and the Dry Bulk Index is at its lowest point since 1986.

The entire commodity sector is in shambles and if it weren’t for US GDP numbers suggesting the economy can grow at 3%+, one would say we are trapped inside of a vicious deflationary cycle, one that stands to absolutely destroy equity prices.

Or, maybe we’re all fucking cowards and have COMPLETELY LOST OUR FUCKING MINDS, by giving governments our money for 10 years at NEGATIVE yields. This is unbelievable to me, frankly, how so many smart people can be so fucking stupid. There isn’t a credit crisis or an event that should cause you to stow away money into the coffers of Swiss central banks, locking in negative rate of returns.

Why not buy AAPL or SHAK instead?

One thing is for certain: we are in a new paradigm and the old rules do not apply. Adjust or die.

Who knew the market was going to bounce?

Make that 11-1 over the past 12 months, over a 1 day time period.

The PPT wins again.

In two days hence, the market is going to be higher than it is today.

Granted, we are suffering horrible deaths. I’d rather burn inside of an oven than be forced to figure out this jigsaw puzzle every single day, catering to people who define the word panic. All that aside, how cool is it to be a western democracy now?

Think about it. You get to keep the mountainous sized debt loads, without any credit repercussions, and now add to it, exponentially if you like, at NEGATIVE interest rates. That’s right. The plebs are actually going to pay you to take their money.

As a benevolent government crony, you can take said money and throw parties in your castle. Or, you can dole it out to poor people so they won’t firebomb your offices. Or, you can build bridges and tunnels, which is just another way of paying off the union bosses, who will then take a percentage of the money you give him and send it back to you in the form of ‘campaign donation’, which you will gladly spend wining and dining some of your pals.

Life has never been better for western democracies. Balance sheets mean nothing. Austerity is stupid and inflation is a figment of your imaginations. As long as the plebs believe GRAVE DANGER is on the horizon (after all oil is decidedly lower), you get to take their money and they will pay you to do it!

Forget about taxes (actually, don’t forget about it); taking the money outright is a much better stream of revenue.

Think of all the wars we might partake in now. ISIS is a threat? No problem. We will send 500,000 boys from Texas and Oklahoma to kill them. They don’t have any prospects now anyway, since their petrol based economies are in shambles.

Who will fill their jobs while they’re way?

Illegal Mexicans, who will do their jobs for pennies on the dollar, for fear of being caught and deported.

Oh, after you finish reading this bloggy, be a good boy and buy some more TLT. Compared to our european comrades, it’s so cheap and people are loving that yield.

I can sit here and wax poetic about the virtues of owning XYZ, how gold, bonds, and stocks all make sense and how Portuguese and Irish borrowing costs are supposed to be at zero percent: but I’d be lying.

BABA didn’t cook the books, so they missed revenue targets. Perhaps we know why the Chinese government was upset with them yesterday? Crooks and scoundrels.

I own a little BABA, but I own more HAR, which is my favorite way to play the auto sector. But who cares, really? I see what’s going on, the utter despair out there, good folks chasing bad ideas down the sewer hole into the jaws of alligators. I see it all.

It’s important that you know that I am in a constant state of cynicism and rage, upset at the world for being so great, yet so utterly dumb.

The market is a profound place to lose fortunes at break neck speeds. The longer I play this game, the less I want to own small cap stocks. It’s the lure of elephantine profit that keeps me coming back, like a crack fiend loitering about the old crackhouse.

Enough is enough: let’s bounce already, shall we?

What we have here is a chimerical concoction of deadly ingredients, wreaking havoc with the minds of cocaine addled money managers. They look at negative yields and think “what the fuck?” Then they look at oil collapsing and do a few lines of blow, tweaked out and losing money. Paranoid as shit, these coxcombs are now frantically selling shit twice, thinking about their $20,000 monthly mortgage and “nut” that makes middled class people want to throw pitched forks through the heads of every single trader on Wall Street.

This is the ultimate game of fear and greed and now there are a lot of greedy fuckers betting on final collapse, clamoring for starvation and homeless children forced into work camps by government overlords. Mad Maxx is coming and he’s pissed off.

Then again, markets are within an ear shot of 52 week highs. Gents are generally rich as fuck, discussing underwear on first rate financial blogs for reasons unbeknownst to me. Take that shit to other blogs that like to talk about bacon drenched in butter. Oh that’s right, you can’t.

HERETO: The PPT flags oversold tonight. Prepare for immediate melt up, bozo.

This is not a business for the faint of heart. Some like to sneak around the side of the house, burglar a little when the owners are sleeping, then escape into holes in the ground, fearful of being caught. “The Fly” is not a man, such as this.

“The Fly” kicks down the front door during your supper, cordially introduces himself whilst lighting his pipe. He then walks into your living room, disconnects your television, then walks out with it. Before leaving, he dumps his ashes onto your dinner plate, saying “good day to you Sir,” then makes way via pink cadillac at 155mph.

That’s how I trade, always have and always will.

I’ve made my bed and now I am going to lay down in it.

Here we go again. The market is selling off and oil is down the tubes. To be clear, my hunch on oil is only that– and I am using seasonality factors to justify my bullish position, coupled with the notion that this decline must cessate sometime.

The market was supposed to offer us 100 NASDAQS. Instead, we get none. Had it not been for Apple, we’d be lower today.

I cannot control sentiment and can only offer inalienable facts. The conditions for a very strong market are present. The number one roadblock to it, and I mentioned this the other day when reviewing the classic Buñuel film The Exterminating Angel, is human emotion. We are a fearful creature, always scratching about the door, trying to escape this, that and the other.

I thought we’d get winship today. Instead, by the looks of it, we will get death and destruction (extra hunch back from 300, part 2).

I know it has been discussed ad nauseam, but how awesome is Apple? They made a record $18 billion for the quarter and will have close to $200 billion in cash after next quarter. It’s like they’re building their own sovereign wealth fund. Imagine 10 years from now when Apple’s fund is worth in excess of a trillion dollars. Then what? Something tells me Apple will play a very big role in finance, ten, twenty, thirty years from now.

Futures are slightly higher and my X is up about 8% in pre-market trading–thanks to much better than expected earnings. They cited a big pick up in consumer spending and flat-rolled products, tracking well with GDP.

Listen to me, you’re a super-jackass for shorting this tape. Inflation is non-existent and CPI numbers are going to be negative this year. Corporate earnings are great and europe is printing money. Our Fed, mind you, will eventually respond to negative CPI numbers and begin another round of QE. I’ve always said this was going to happen, so this is nothing new.

The biotech industry is making retarded money, which is why so many stocks are priced in the triple digits. This is it, folks. The economic renaissance that you’ve always wanted and dreamt about is here. The only thing that can stifle it, or delay the inevitable melt up in stocks, is human behavior through sentiment. All of that is transient, however. Outside of the matrix of your fictitious, horrible world, is a place that is booming with innovation, connectivity, and ideal for economic expansion.

One small side note about oil that none of you ham and eggers are talking about is the seasonality aspect. Oil never trades up in January, but tends to forklift higher ahead of the driving season.

That’s right, even when times were good for the fat slobs in Venezuela, oil traded lower 8 of the past 9 years in January. That trend would reverse in February and March, setting up for a very timely long-trade in late January.

Because of this, coupled with dollar weakness, I started a position in SN.

I added to FMSA and NDRM, for the win. Foot is now pressed firmly down, speeding aside a beam of light (extra Einstein)–heading towards the sun.

Despite the indices, I am up 0.5% for the day.