Chipotle Plunges on Earnings Shortfall

Poisonous food is apparently unappealing to most Americans. It’s important that you know, “The Fly” hasn’t eaten at a CMG in quite some time, and now find the specter of doing so revolting. Some of you idlers still venture off into their locales, due to sloth and vagrancy. Need I remind you that the company — still — hasn’t the slightest idea why people received hospital stay inducing food poisoning, chalking it up to odd aberrations which prompted them to remind employees to wash their hands. I am of the mindset that McDonald’s is out to kill the franchise which they created, dispatching operatives into random CMG’s in order to afflict customers with violent vomit inducing toxins.

The company missed by all measures. The stock is lower by 25 bucks, hitting $298 in the after-hours. Any bounce should be faded. Any idea that this is a salvageable chain should be abandoned. The long term target for CMG should, inexorably, be $00.00.

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.46 per share, ex-$0.64/share in data breach costs but including $0.13/share from hurricane impacts, $0.32 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.65; revenues rose 8.8% year/year to $1.13 bln vs the $1.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Comps +1% vs. +1.4% estimates.

Food costs were 35.0% of revenue, a decrease of 10 basis points as compared to the third quarter of 2016. The benefit of the menu price increases taken in select restaurants during the second quarter of 2017 and decreased paper cost and usage were offset by higher avocado and beef prices, as well as steak making up a higher portion of our product mix compared to the third quarter of 2016. Restaurant level operating margin was 16.1% in the third quarter of 2017, an improvement from 14.1% in the third quarter of 2016. The improvement was driven primarily by decreased marketing and promotion expense and labor efficiencies.

For the full year 2017, management expects: Comparable restaurant sales increases of about 6.5% (down from high single digits); New restaurant openings slightly below the low end of the previously-disclosed range of 195 to 210
For 2018, management expects: 130 to 150 new restaurant openings.

You could’ve made money by accident. The Dow is now higher by 175, Nasdaq +21 — with breadth at a milquetoast 58%. I’m waiting for the VIX to get under 10 again, in order to possibly buy it. Cryptos can go fuck themselves; I don’t need to look at them, just like I don’t concern myself with homeless people on the streets. Do not ask me for money, or approach me for food. I’m not interested in your depravity. I’ve indulged many of you, for reasons to do with tongue in cheek, for some months now — whimsically discussing your idiot tokens because they were funny and dumb. But the truth of the matter is, if you’re fixated on the blockchain and all of the indecorous trimmings that go with owning it, you’ve come to the wrong locale. I will destroy you. As a long term advocate of the market, fervent supporter of Dr. Benjamin Bernanke, pursuer of QE for life — you can go fuck yourselves.

Something to consider, WTI has definitely stabilized and the Saudis want to cash in on their Aramco ipo, which probably means they’ll be jimmy-rigging the price of crude higher in the not-too-distant-future. All of the commodity plays are higher today, underowned sectors that have been forgotten, as most piledrive themselves into tech.

The only macro contrarian plays now are in retail and commodities, an amusing gambol of stocks that could produce outrageous returns from here until pagan Xmas.

Will you finally bit the bullet and buy M or continue to sashay in and out of PCLN and AMZN — because buying thousand dollar stocks is neat and trendy and all of your faggot friends do it?

As an aside, my new OSTK position is really doing quite well. I can’t wait for it to go a little higher, so that I can sell it.

Bitcoin is getting donkey-punched hard today, off by 4.7%. Might I add a little personal touch to this decline, it is both well deserved and appreciated. It has stifled all of the Bitfags on Twitter. I regularly do battle with them and consider most my mortal enemies.

On the other side of the ledger is Ethereum, higher by 8%.

You might be thinking, what the fuck? How could this be?

After doing some research, DEMANDING answers on Twitter, someone told me Bitcoin Fork was activated today. The fact that this exists, goes to show you how retarded these people are.

But it’s not just ETH; the entire ICO market is on fucking fire now, obviously plunging out of stupid old man BTC and into more interesting coins — like FUCK and PEPE. Here are some of the bigger capped ones, most of which are up double digits since last night.

All of the novice crypto bloggers have been shit talking ETH for months now, favoring the old man Bitcoin instead. These idiots even draw lines on charts, trying to analyze cryptos like they would stocks. Understand something, those bloggers are jackasses and you should avoid them like the plague. The fact that ETH is trouncing higher today, amidst negative sentiment, simply demonstrates, yet again, that the power of the crowd being on the wrong side of the trade permeates all asset classes. Expect the unexpected. Buy when other people are apathetic.

Personally, I wish they’d all die, casting all of the losers pestering me on Twitter to a doomed hell. But if I had to choose a victor, I’d root for ETH.

What’s a man to think when he sees Ethereum up by 8% and Bitcoins down 3.5%? Am I supposed to go check the Reddit forums for news, or perhaps should I venture off to Github? I bet there’s some really hot white paper out there — some hot shot ICO about to come public — maybe a shoe shine store in Bushwick or a distillery in Queens? Whatever it is, I bet it’s gonna be great.

The Eurotrash are higher by 0.2% and copper is up 1%. That’s right ladies and germs, China is on fucking fire again. Get your copper here, while it’s fresh and hot, right out of the oven.

Bond yields are creeping higher and Dow futures are +63, while the snazzy nazzy up just 5.

Here are some meaningful headlines.

Biogen beats by $0.58, beats on revs
Fiat Chrysler beats by $0.08, misses on revs; reaffirms FY17 revs guidance
United Tech beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; raises FY17 guidance

When the dust settles and all that could be said about the annihilation of the nascent asset class of cryptos, these stocks will measurably outperform, with the elegance of a splendid fall time New York City charitable ball, attended by gents in tuxedos and ladies draped in diamonds, swimming in perfume.

As the symphony plays and the genteel drift with dignity across the ballroom floor, the Bitcoiners will be crying inside of their showers, cowering whilst their pajama clad, beak nosed, wives hammer on the door for an explanation as to why their entire nest egg had been wiped out in digital currencies.

Little Johnny will have to attend state college and forget about lodging at an out of state Ivy, since all the money had been washed away in great fall of Bitcoin, the revenge of the Federal Reserve edition.

After a long night of drinking and dancing, the fine people at the NYC Fall time Charitable Ball will roll out of their beds, saunter into kitchens flooded with the warm yellow glow of the morning sun, and drink a wonderful cup of hot coffee. Bedecked in nighttime robes, they’ll open up their morning edition of the NY Times and see the following stocks, all higher, some with vigor, others faintly — and smile with comfort at the smeared ink and then take another sip of their wonderful coffee.

It was a nice run folks. The evergreen feeling of invincibility was shattered during today’s session, as the tech heavy Nasdaq bled out by 35 (as of 3:35p). You’d be interested to know the tech sector now makes up 25% of the entire market cap in the market, valued at $10 trillion.

Perusing over my self made indices, old man stocks were immune to the sell off — thanks to gains in KR, NKE, JNJ and ED. This was a very typical risk off day — stocks down and TLT/GLD up. Not much to discuss there.

My quant related trades, designed to chase alpha and follow trends, only shed 0.10% and was higher most of the day. On the other hand, my discretionary trades caught the wind cock in a lightening storm treatment. Outrageous losses were endured in HMNY and OSTK, hedged only by gains in XXII and COHR. My median losses were -1.3% in that account today. The fucking Moviepass idea isn’t something that I’m obsessing over and won’t sell it because it’s down. It is my lotto ticket. I will, however, blow the fuck out of this son of mother’s whore OSTK if the Bitcoin markets don’t recover soon.

God knows that I want nothing more than to enjoy my life, one that has been enjoyed with extreme leisure, while all of the Bitcoiners suffer in the fires of perdition. This version of reality is foreboding and awfully downcast for me. Stocks have played second fiddle to the garrulous shit-talkers in the cryptos for too long and I’d like nothing more than stark and grim conclusions in the blockchain soon. I’ve never come across a more ignorant group of idiots than the bitcoiners, and I was a very active and aspirational dot com trader back in the bubble days. Everyone loved trading the dot coms — but at least we knew the gains were on lease and would eventually be revoked. These cocksuckers believe bitcoin will trade to a million. I hate them and wish they’d stop talking.

My day has only just begun. I have lots of things planned, none of which includes some dirty martinis. Instead, “The Fly” must toil about the Princeton area and after he’s done toiler, he’s gonna toil some more.

It will fucking ‘implode one day’, said the heavily eye-browed young Prince from Middle Earth.

You’d be wise to heed is warnings. Sell now, else die later.

YOU'RE FINISHED BITCOINERS. Here's Prince Alwaleed communicating through morse code using his eyebrows to finally finish off #BTC. WATCH pic.twitter.com/1jfQfaoAIW

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 23, 2017

My first employment at a brokerage firm, which I’ll touch upon in part 2 of my book series, was an offshoot of the Wolf of Wall Street’s boiler room, Stratton Oakmont. I didn’t know it was a boiler room at the time and never pitched stock there, since I was an unlicensed cold caller, but it was the most professional and skilled sales force I’ve ever seen in my life. Those guys could sell steaks to a vegan.

Here’s the former Wolf, turned “motivational speaker” calling out ICO’s for what they are: scams.

Belfort, who spent 22 months in jail after pleading guilty to securities fraud and money laundering, said while most investors probably did not have bad intentions with ICOs, it would only take a small proportion of people trying to scam the others for it to become a “disaster”.

“It is the biggest scam ever, such a huge gigantic scam that’s going to blow up in so many people’s faces. It’s far worse than anything I was ever doing,” Belfort told the Financial Times.

How will you recover?

Pro-tip, you won’t.

Related: VERI

Unfortunately, Jeff isn’t able to do the Boot Camp this week and we might need to cancel altogether. It wasn’t supposed to be this delayed and we certainly didn’t want to cancel it after collecting fees. Nonetheless, if Jeff decides he’s unable to do it, I’ll be sending out refunds this week. Stay tuned for a final decision later on today.

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Eurostoxx are higher by 0.5%, sans the communists in Spain. They deserve to be down and are, to the tune of 0.3%.

Bitcoin is lower by 2% to $5,875 after hitting a record high of $6,100. Notice how the price is quoted in actual dollars and for you GIGANTIC FAGGOTS to do anything with the winners, you first need to convert back to dollars? Isn’t that special? (extra Church Lady)

Nasdaq futs are +12 and NVDA’s price target has been upped to $230 from $180 at Jefferies.

There’s really nothing for you good people to worry about. Isn’t life grande? Go out and enjoy your Halloween costume parties under heavy influence of narcotics. Be sure to wear that gorilla outfit proudly, whilst dancing like an invalid until you pass out from dehydration.

There’s plenty of work to be done and wars to win, enemies to maim and kill.

Bloomberg is reporting CSCO is close to buying out the cloudfags at BSFT. The details of the detail are incredibly cryptic, likely the result of some leak by some investment banker, trying to expedite the deal. These leaks are often correct and I suspect it will get done. My main question is, what will the premium be?

The stock is up 31% for the year, with a market cap of $1.7 billion. With a price/sales of 4.7x, anything more than a 25% premium to Friday’s close should light a fire under communication and software stocks, like CTXS.