Asian Stocks Rip Higher; S&P Futures at Session Highs

I do realize that I have no idea where the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum are heading in the short term. I mostly trash talk it just to get a rise of out you cryptofags. I do see that ETH is higher by 12% now and seemingly nothing can stop it from going higher — not even a ban in China. Truth be told, I enjoy to watch the digital scams flip and flop. It reminds me of when I was a younger man trading bullshit dotcoms, which were worthless, but at the same time worth billions. The more I reflect on my career as a manager of other people’s money, the more I am defined by the dot coms. Again, it was truly something to behold. You just had to be there.

Over in Asia, the Hang Seng is ripping higher by 300, or 1.1%. The Korean KOSPI is up 1.15%, on news that life still exists there. S&P futures +6, NASDAQ +18. It’s gonna be a good day to be long stocks.

DAX futures are +0.6%. Hurricane Jose weakened and will not destroy NYC. Life as we know it marches on to the sweet melodies of unchecked success.

I copped a Duke Ellington at Newport 1956 vinyl and have it playing in the background now. The jazz fest was great, as always. I managed to eat some paella (skipped the evil sausages and chicken) and swig down a few cups of Sam Adams swill. The weather was ideal, high 70s, very little humidity. The crowd, genteel, as should be expected.

As soon as I sat down to peruse the news, all I could find was how dreadful Jennifer Lawrence’s new film was and how people now hate her for making it. I don’t get the anger people display for entertainers. Futures are mildly higher, commodities are flat and bitcoins aren’t crashing. This is a meaningless set of metrics, since you and I both know volatility will crash tomorrow, stocks will race to fresh record highs, and we’re all going to feel good about our prospects.

Bull markets make geniuses out of us all, the evergreen feeling of success that always has a unique feeling to it. I perused some investment properties today, and have been considering getting into the flipping business. My experiences during the housing crash keep these impulses at bay, more or less. Some of the homes in Trenton, NJ are selling for a song, less than $40 per sq ft, and could easily be fixed and rented out for a decent profit. The very best investments I’ve made have been in real estate, aside from the dot com and 2003, 2009 revival days.

How many of you invest in real estate? Just curious.

I’ll be checking the headlines and futures throughout the night and will be posting something later on. If you have any requests, tell me now. It’s a slow night so far.

As I said yesterday, I’ll be at a Festival today. In the meantime, I want you to check out the following stocks — perhaps you’ll find a few good trades with this list. I created this screen years ago, using moving averages, in an attempt to digitize a certain look in a chart.

The look is a long consolidation that is about to break out. In the past, I’ve fired off many successful trades using this screen, as long consolidations tend to have explosive upside events, once they break out.

We’re getting back to solely focusing on stocks again. I’m sure some of you need some time to detox from the filth, but quit arguing with each other in the comments section — you fucking faggots.

Instead of sauntering around the house and drinking all day, I like to head out to the local festivals, especially in the fall. I’m fortunate to live in an area rich with culture and things to do. My favorite festival is the Princeton Jazz Festival, which will be starting soon, later on today thru 6pm.

I stumbled upon this festival when I moved here about 5 years ago and have been going back ever since. It’s a delightful panorama of food and music — both very crowded and energetic with people dancing in the square to the tunes of yesterday.

I remember the first time I heard the melodic and haunting sounds of Duke Ellington’s Mood Indigo. It was there and I could not track down that song for years, until I heard it again while exploring the Duke’s catalog of genius. I actually had posted it on my Instgram account, a brief 5 second clip. I’m inactive on ‘the gram’, but if you’re curious you can find it in my archives there below.

Fun fact: this is the same band that plays for boardwalk empire. #princetonjazzfest

A post shared by the_real_fly (@the_real_fly) on Sep 14, 2014 at 4:20pm PDT

All of the other festivals are halloween based, typical fright fests, corn mazes, and harvest themed events. As it so happens, Halloween is my favorite holiday of the year. There’s something about fall in the northeast that is to be cherished. Christmas is great, but I’ve been trained to dread it thanks to wanton American consumerism. From mid-september through early November is pure atmospheric joy here, from the turning of the leaves, to the subtle bitterness of old man winter knocking, eventually to the foliage. What’s not to like?

I’d be interested to hear of your favorite festivals, especially if you live in the tri-state area.

Time to get some sleep.

I’ll be heading out for a nice long day of shopping. After that, why, I might whip up a few dry martinis and then finish off that new show Ozark’s. I’m glad I stumbled across that show, to remind me to never travel to that part of the country.

On the music front, I’m just about an expert on early jazz and 1920-1930s ‘dancing orchestra’ (Al Bowlly, Ted Lewis, Ray Noble, Leo Reisman etc) music and have been exploring the wondrous world of Bossa Nova — a Brazilian form of music that intermingled with jazz and blew up in America — circa 1960s. Even Frank ‘never waited on a line during his entire life’ Sinatra got into it — making an entire album with Antonio Carlos Jobim.

Still, out of all the songs and artists from that era, saxophone playing Stan Getz is my favorite.

In 1963, he released Jazz Samba and it reached #1 on the charts, selling 500,000 records in a year and a half. I love exploring things that were popular in the past and trying to understand what was special about them. If you listen to the entirety of this album, Jazz Samba, it’s easy to understand why. It’s timeless and will be appreciated forever.

I’ve known about Getz for maybe 5 years now and have played his stuff here before. For those of you who weren’t paying attention, here’s the album.

On the literary front, I recently completed all of the works of F. Scott Fitzgerald, who is probably my favorite author. I read all of his novels and short stories and have a great appreciation for this prose. Fun fact, when he died, The Great Gatsby had to be warehoused due to lack of demand. Now he sells more books per year then he did during his entire career as an author. Isn’t that fucked?

On my night table now is Anna Karenina, a half read masterpiece about NYC named “Gotham”, an Einstein biography and a book about English, Irish and Scottish castles.

I once fell into this misconception, thinking that if something was overbought it must be a sell. After delving into mean reversion data for more than a decade, I can tell you, unequivocally, this is not the case. In fact, sometimes when a stock is overbought it is an even better buy than when oversold, and vice versa. Everything is data dependent. Each stock has a life of its own, a unique shareholder base with their own lives.

Two weeks ago, the SPY flagged overbought in Exodus. I posted this blog inside there to let members know this was a good thing.

Today I bought FEYE, which is also overbought, according to our algorithms. The term overbought simply denotes a technical level that is stretched to its outer-limits. I like to view this as I would a streaking baseball hitter, batting .550 over the past 10 games. Would you view that hitter as an easy out or someone likely to take your head off with a line drive up the middle?

Here are the stats for FEYE and why I bought it.

A 90% win rate over the past 10 incidences, not too shabby.

Here are some of the other stocks that are streaking now in Exodus, flagging OB, that have resulted in higher stock prices over the past 12 months.

This is what I do in my spare time, figuring out ways to unlock the ancient secrets of speculation. What the fuck are you doing with your lives, playing video games?

Top picks heading into the weekend, FIZZ, FAZ, XIV, FEYE.

How many of you bought NVDA 100 points ago and still own it? I bet all of you did, yes? I suppose we’re living through a tech renaissance where computing power, abiding by Moore’s Law, keeps doubling and with it the share prices of the underlying companies. But something changed a few years ago, didn’t it?

When Steve Jobs was at the helm, he’d pit these chip companies against one another — like rabid pitbulls in a cage — causing their margins to shrink and share prices to collapse. Ever since Apple passed $200 billion in cash, they started to become more gracious with their suppliers, permitting them to ‘get a piece of the pie’ and jog on with dignity. Personally, I don’t think Apple should show them any quarter, whatsoever, but instead offer them the black flag during negotiations.

“You either take this deal or your stock will get cut in half. Any questions?”

With a very rich Tim Cook and Apple, the tech world is all basking in each other’s glory.

Courtesy of Exodus, here are the other high tech growth stories outperforming this year. It’s quite a list.

Even contract manufacturers are seeing their margins explode. A personal favorite is UCTT, a direct play in the fast growing OLED market. No one knows for sure how long this detente will last, until the knives come out and pricing becomes an issue. With the $1,000 iPhone set to launch, I’m guessing there’s MOAR upside.

I sold GOOS after looking at some video at how they lay traps throughout Canada to catch Coyotes and starve them to death and then skin them for their fur, so rich faggots can sport them at their local ski resorts. It was funny for a minute. Then I looked at my dog and felt like laser beaming their HQ into the core of the earth. We can now root for their utter and total annihilation in harmony.

Speaking of which, I bought FEYE today, a stock that drove me fucking nuts back in early 2014. I think I rode that fucker down 40-50% in a few short weeks, piling good money into it after bad — applying a Martingale strategy that nearly led to my ruin. I have not been the same person, on this planet, since that occasion. Therefore, ergo, I felt it was incumbent upon myself to enact a stinging revenge upon this ticker symbol, which no doubt is the name of one of Satan’s children.

As an aside, the Exodus Quant strategy made moves today, reducing GLD and TLT to 5% each, allocating into the $1-5 billion market cap quintile.

All is good. Now let’s get one with this fucking revenge trade. I will be watching each and every tick.

Get your generators ready NY, Jose might be heading up here to blow away your over valued hovels. Recent models indicate Jose is making a comeback near the Bahamas and is expected to regain ‘Cane status today, then jog on towards the northeast in an attempt to destroy it.

From Dr. Masters

Jose is now completing its expected loop between the Caribbean and Bermuda, and the track forecast has become more straightforward. Our top track models—the European, GFS, and UKMET models—agree that Jose will continue west-northwest until about Saturday, then head northward toward a upper-level trough that will be sweeping through eastern Canada. By midweek, this northward movement is expected to segue into a more northeasterly track.

The main forecast challenge is how close Jose will get to the U.S. and Canadian coast. The 00Z Thursday runs of the three top track models all place Jose within several hundred miles of North Carolina’s Outer Banks by next Tuesday. Later in the week, Jose could make an even closer pass by Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritimes. At this point we can’t rule out the possibility that Jose will make landfall somewhere along the east coast of the U.S. or Canada. Of the 50 members of the 00Z Thursday ensemble run of the European model, a substantial minority bring Jose inland across the eastern U.S. (see Figure 3). However, only about 20% of the GFS ensemble members produce an eastern U.S. landfall (see Figure 2). The model guidance trended slightly westward overnight, so we’ll need to keep a close eye on any further trends in model guidance. NHC’s 5-day forecast on Thursday morning placed Jose about 250 miles east of North Carolina on Monday, and the “cone of uncertainty” included the Outer Banks.

I guarantee you this doesn’t make the news rounds today, so as a stock trader you might be able to get in on some hurricane stocks ahead of the crowd. The obvious ones are PGTI, LL, LOW and GNRC.

Wait, there’s more.

Two new systems just formed off the coast of Africa and are expected to become Tropical Depressions soon.

Separately, Hurricane Irma, aka Nothing Burger, has left the entire island of Barbuda without people for the first time in 300 years. Total and complete devastation. All 1,800 people have been evacuated.

“The damage is complete,” says Ambassador Ronald Sanders, who has served as Antigua and Barbuda’s ambassador to the U.S. since 2015. “For the first time in 300 years, there’s not a single living person on the island of Barbuda — a civilization that has existed on that island for over 300 years has now been extinguished.”

According to Sanders, Irma was “the most ferocious, cruel and merciless storm” in the island’s history. The hurricane was 378 miles wide when it descended on Barbuda, which is just 62 square miles.

“This was a huge monster,” he says. “The island and the people on the island had absolutely no chance.”

Evacuees from Barbuda were sent to Antigua, which did not suffer the same level of damage from Irma.

“We’ve had most of the people we’ve brought over to Antigua in shelters,” says Sanders. “We’ve tried to make living accommodations as good as humanly possible in these circumstances. Fortunately, we had planned ahead for this hurricane, and we had ordered supplies in from Miami and the United States before the hurricane hit.”

How ever will they recover?

They won’t.

The crypto slide continues, almost unabated. Over the past 24hrs, BTC is -19%, ETH -22% and #BTC cash -28%. The overall value of the ICO market, including BTC, is now down to $100 billion. To put this into perspective, I was discussing how horrible a bubble this was when the cap was $85 billion.

Over the past hour, Litecoin has dropped by 8% and Ethereum by 3.5%.

The peak for Ethereum, the thing that this whole ICO scam is predicated upon, was on 9/1/17 at $398. ETH is now trading at $199.

I hope all cryptocurrency holders a very good evening. pic.twitter.com/OKV2OUXQYI

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 15, 2017

Good morning cryptocurrency holders! pic.twitter.com/xJztUlG5KB

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 15, 2017