Morgan Stanley Gets Bearish on Crypto-Mining as Bitcoin Hits Record Highs

Not a fan of crypto-mining and all of its indecorous trimmings. But how does this god damned downgrade of AMD by Morgan Stanley make sense? This is a simple if-then scenario, right? If the price of cryptos are at record highs and trending higher, then more people will want to mine for these valuable items. Yes?

Ok, so where is the logic with this downgrade of AMD, who is a major player in providing miners with GPU power to get the damned tokens?

Morgan Stanley reduced its rating for AMD shares to underweight from equal-weight, predicting cryptocurrency mining and gaming console demand for its graphics chip business will falter in 2018.

The company’s shares are down 4 percent in Monday’s premarket session after the report. The stock declined 13.5 percent Wednesday, a day after it gave fourth-quarter profitability guidance below some Wall Street estimates.

AMD’s “fundamental outlook is not quite as robust as microprocessor momentum has been slow to build, offset by cryptocurrency gains,” analyst Joseph Moore wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We believe that AMD’s graphics surge has been caused by a sharp increase in sales of graphics chips to cryptocurrency miners. We expect this to meaningfully decelerate next year.”

Moore lowered his price target for AMD shares to $8 from $11, representing 32 percent downside from Friday’s close.

The analyst predicts cryptocurrency mining driven sales for AMD’s graphics chips will decline by 50 percent next year or a $250 million decline in revenue. He also forecasts video game console demand will decline by 5.5 percent in 2018.

“We expect cryptocurrency to gradually fade from here, consoles to decline, and graphics to be flattish,” he wrote. “To be clear, we admire what the company has accomplished on a fraction of its competitors’ budgets in both microprocessors and graphics – our cautious view is based entirely on the current stock price, and the limited potential for upside in 2018 and beyond.”

He’s predicting a 50% drop in mining related sales, or $250 million. I bet you shitheads thought AMD and NVDA were soaring because MUH video games. Wrong. The entire rally in both AMD/NVDA is predicated on crypto mining. When that party ends, so will the rallies in those stocks.

Morning Gents,

Kevin Spacey admitted to being a depraved pedophile last night, something I am sure fellow members of the NFLX hit show House of Cards rue. Already, Mrs. Fly said she refuses to watch ‘anymore of his depravity’ which says a lot. The normies are going to pick up pitched forks along the way to BURNING Hollywood to the ground and to a cinder.

Naturally, the media is downplaying the pedo part and instead focusing on Spacey’s super-gay coming out party.

And then there’s this.

Uh oh – Kevin Spacey and Bill Clinton flew on Jeff Epstein's Lolita Express together. https://t.co/gEVWaWSGTB pic.twitter.com/AVgjS4zeE8

— ZeroPointNow (@ZeroPointNow) October 30, 2017

All of that is having zero effect on stocks, with Europe slightly higher and Nasdaq futures flat. Shares of NFLX are higher in the pre-market.

Shares of M were downgraded at Citi this morning. That’s not gonna stop a god damned single person from buying those shares of the presumptive Xmas season. The only other notable call this morning was Morgan Stanley downgrading AMD.

It’s very cold and dreary this morning, which means I’ll be driving my kids to school. On the way back, after they’re out of the car, I’ll turn on Howard Stern and see what that absolute degenerate is up to — which is usually nothing at all but cock-smacking contests or any other variety of homo-erotic horseshit. He does, however, do the best interviews and I always enjoy those.

I expect stocks will trade down today, possibly producing a great entry point for dip buyers. But I don’t have an appetite for more stocks ahead of Hallow’s Eve. Too scary.

I spent the balance of my day shopping, more or less — first for clothes and then for groceries. I find that I am no longer interested in buying clothes for myself and just do it for others now. Food, that’s another story. I enjoy buying delicacies and am open to all sorts of fare. This evening I made some steamed clams in a seafood stock, emblazoned by white wine and heavy doses of truffle salt. It was delicious. Since this is the season of pumpkin, I paired it with a fine pumpkin ale and it was great.

I gave my dog, Twinkie, my last clam. She ate it right out of the shell and began chewing on the empty shell with grave intensity. I marveled at her ignorance and then quickly took the clam away from her, fearing it would choke her to death.

On the stove now, sizzling loudly and splashing corn oil onto my stove, backsplash, and floor is some floured wild cod. I don’t buy farmed raised fish anymore because I once saw a documentary that said it was the equivalent to eating out of a toilet bowl.

I’m sipping on my third glass of pumpkin ale now and my wife texted our good friend Dave, who is a former NYPD detective, that we were doing so. Dave is a brave man, 10 years my senior, who likes to laugh at my forays into flavored ale. He likes the simple things in life: fine cigars, Irish whiskey, and plain ale.

I haven’t broken my vegan diet yet, despite complaining about it every hour. Truth is, when I start something, I like to finish it and I feel bad breaking my ridiculous vegan diet. After I wrote that I just realized I had been eating fish all day — so I’m really a pescatarian. At a minimum, this experience will enable me to communicate well with other vegans, making fine conversation.

My wife just informed me that the wild cod was a disaster. She’s been drinking pumpkin ale with me and I think that had something to do with it. I didn’t take the kids to the local haunted farm this year — because they’re getting older and they said it was for babies. I really hate the fact that they’re getting older and can’t wait until they grow old enough to produce grandchildren for me. There’s nothing better than life and pumpkin ale, during Halloween, at a haunted farm, with small children.

Dow futures are down by 20, but does it really matter?

The cancelation of the Boot Camp was unexpected, otherwise I would’ve never promoted it or gone though the trouble or doing an early bird special and collecting funds in advance of the event. I took some more time out of my day this evening, after binge watching season 2 of Stranger Things, which I felt was a marked improvement over season 1, and issued refunds for the people who signed up.

You should start to see refunds by early next week. If, by chance, you do not see your funds back into your bank accounts by next week, be sure to email me and I will triple check to ensure you’re made whole.

I apologize for the inconvenience. If I’m ever drifting through your town, I’ll be sure to buy you a drink and tell you a fine story.

I’m a very busy man and do not have time to discuss VIOLENCE IN BARCELONA as a result of Catalonian independence. I do not care about their freedoms, no more than I care about the lint on my top hat. I simply brush it to the side and jog on.

I will, however, drop some tickers here — the top ranked stocks, by technicals, in Exodus. I intend to venture off to a haunted farm tonight in an effort to truly scare my children, who now believe they’re too old for these sort of things. Please.

SITO, CDNA, CLMT, DVAX, SVU, MRNS, XNET, HLG, EC, CGI

ETFs

SOXL, JPNL, GBTC, USD, BNO, ZIV, PSI, PICK, EZU, UCO

As the Nasdaq jerks off into outerspace, and Bezos’ net worth eclipses $90 billion, I am bemused to inform you that most stocks performed miserably this week. As a point in fact, the SPY charged higher by just 0.55% — but the divergence amongst market caps was palpable. Only a select few stocks did well and I can prove it.

Inside Exodus, each and every week I break down the performance by market cap. This is for my quant based trading, which, by the way, legged higher by 0.91% for the week — almost doubling the returns for the SPY. Only stocks with market caps over $50 billion traded up for the week. To that end, they only traded up by 0.08%, while stocks under $1 billion traded lower by 1%.

Both TLT and GLD did poorly, so I am still 80% stocks, 20% cash. I will, however, be moving up the market cap ladder — all in on stocks with market caps over $50 billion.

Exodus members can access the market cap screen here.

Over the years my swing trading acumen has greatly diminished — mostly because I’ve focused much of my efforts in systematic trading — trying to find a better way to do this without killing myself in the process. God damn it, some of my trades have been lousy and I used to be very proud of my skillset in dealing with the daily reverberations of the market. The older I get and the more wealth that I try to accumulate, the greater my desire to produce something that will last longer than my lifespan — which is why Exodus is so important to me.

That aside, Ragin Cajun is probably the most overlooked blogger I’ve ever employed at iBC. RC is the type of guy you’d trust raising your kids — never bitter and rarely upset. You could tell by just meeting him that he was raised by good parents and taught the difference between right and wrong from early on. But he’s also a phenomenal trader and old school members of 12631 and Exodus can attest to that.

Today is a big day for RC, not only because he just opened his biggest gym to date and completed what was his largest construction project ever, but also because of some of his recent trades in TWTR, GOOGL, OLED and FSLR.

Members of Exodus get his expertise, as well as the camaraderie of a truly great group of people who’ve been on top of every tick of every day in this market. I am truly thinking about doing another iBC dinner in 2018 and inviting a random 5 people from the Pelican Room to join us to break bread. I haven’t held an annual dinner in two or three years; it might be time to restart the tradition that brought us all together.

RC just stepped into my world, long HMNY. While I do not expect the stock to do much without news, I love the fact that it’s so hated right now. This is the time to accumulate a position. No one is expecting profits out of it — just damned subscription growth — which should be a no brainer, considering they’re giving away money.

God damned clowns. Since when was CNBC such a stupid outlet for financial news and information? They’ve always been annoying and their talking heads wrong; but, more or less, their news department was always dependable, or at least competent enough to not brazenly lie or behave in a manner which is, universally, considered to be stupid. Donald Trump is an Orange Monster, a plague for the CIA and other American institutions who’ve been having their way with tax payer dollars for the past 50 years. But his claim that we could and should grow at 3% GDP was never outlandish when the Chinese grow at 7% without trying.

US GDP, yet again, grew at 3% for the quarter that passed — exceeding the 2.5% estimates. Nasdaq futures are way up and the market is expected to becoming a cup brimming with exuberance and profit as soon as they open.

CNBC, won’t you have a sip?

There isn’t an end, per se, in sight for market gains. Even the most ardent of bears know that to jump in front of a runaway market, heading into Turkey Day, is sheer madness. It won’t be long now when we’re all discussing the specter of rivers of turkey gravy flowing throughout America — as national feast day approaches. I will have you know, I did not swap out of OSTK yesterday for UVXY, but instead HMNY — because the destruction of the movie theatre industry is on my bucket list of things to do during my lifetime.

Get in here faggots and offer your opinions.

It’s so great to have so many financial experts around me, as I am able to simply call upon many of you to provide me with the answers. Let’s not even think about a pullback or manners of limited potential downsides. No, money managers should never think about risk — only about how far they could press down on the fucking gas before thee whole thing explodes into a fiery ball of happiness and ebullience.

Along those lines and on this narrative, which will hit 7,000 first, the magnificent Nasdaq or the bountiful Bitcoin — which is widely regarded and revered as the “new currency” for a transgendered age of sybaritism.

In the event both markets trade down, please ignore that I posted this question tonight and only heed my latest stock picks. I wouldn’t want my pristine reputation tarnished on the internet, for I am reliant upon it for future income streams.

Thank you.

Nasdaq futures are +37, after so many fine companies beat expectations after the bell. Need I remind you that Trump is responsible for all of these wins? Bigly.

Amazon prelim Q3 $0.52 vs ($0.01) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $43.7 bln vs $42.26 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; operating income decreased 40% to $347 million vs. ($400)-300 mln guide

Western Digital prelim Q1 $3.56 vs $3.31 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $5.18 bln vs $5.13 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Microsoft beats by $0.12, beats on revs

First Solar beats by $1.11, beats on revs; raises FY17 EPS above consensus, reaffirms FY17 revs & shipment guidance

Intel prelim Q3 $0.94 vs $0.80 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $16.15 bln vs $15.73 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Alphabet prelim Q3 $9.57 vs $8.40 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $27.77 bln vs $27.17 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Gilead Sciences beats by $0.14, beats on revs, Raises low end of FY17 net product sales guidance

Align Tech beats by $0.20, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus