That is the evening star candlestick pattern I’m talking about.  If today downtrend persists, we will see the formation of this 3 bars candlestick reversal pattern.  Therefore, be mindful of possible correction and plan your portfolio accordingly.

Below is today morning SPY chart:

Below is how the fully formed evening star candlestick pattern looks like:

Below is the “probability” of what will follow-thru after the evening star candlestick pattern is developed:

Based on the example above, it is possible that SPY may test the low of July 12th at 132.60 if today close with an evening star candlestick formation.

Currently I’ve 18% of my portfolio in short position thru TZA and SKF.

Good Hunting!

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Usually when you have a Doji candlestick bar near the previous pivot high, it can be said that the bull is being “checked” by the resistance.  Not necessarily a bearish attack but it could be subjected to attack by bearish traders.

If SPY closes today with a Doji pattern intact; then tomorrow will be the confirmation day of either a continuation up pattern or a correction to the downside.  This confirmation can be seen by price actions taking out either the high of today (continuation) or the low of today (correction).

Since I’m already net short by holding TZA and SKF; I’ll keep these position open for tomorrow and see which way the wind blows.  I can’t say the probability is on my side but then a doji at resistance is usually an ominous sign.  Who know, I may be speaking too soon since the day hasn’t close yet.  Therefore, we may not have a doji bar after all.

Below is the daily SPY chart with the doji pattern on today bar:

Current position:

15.6% short (bought TZA and SKF)

9.7% long-term equity

74.7% cash

Good Hunting!

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Today at 10:00am EST, the market announced Flip-Flop day.  Giving the general confusion of why we even rally this week, this announcement should not be taken lightly.  As usual, being sensitive to market pulse (am I being TOO sensitive???), I closed out all my long positions with a small gain, and went short by buying TZA and SKF (again!).

Will I be proven wrong again by being too quick on my draw and shoot my own foot again?  Who know.  But I’ve my stop losses on my TZA and SKF in place.  If these stops are taken out, I’ll take a break from the market and read a book, take a walk, or smell the roses since I may have lost my sense of direction to the market actions.

Below is today daily SPY chart.  Is July 3rd high now becomes a possible resistance?

Current Position:

12% 15.6% short (bought TZA and SKF)

9.7% long-term equity

78.3% 74.7% cash

Good Hunting!

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Before we know it, by mid-week, SPY has almost made 2 points in its objective to take out the July 5th high.  It has not done so yet; but it is getting very close to doing so.  Once the 137.80 pivot high is taken out, next objective is to try to reach for the “X” in the chart.

Despite doom and gloom fundamental economic news, the SPY just keep on going and going and going UP.  Will the battery ever run out?  Better watch out for the day when the battery just “disintegrates” into nothing.

Yesterday morning correction spooked me out of a perfect positional play that included SZYM, DDD, and SSYS.  While I made money on these when I took profit yesterday morning, I left another chunk on the table yesterday (SZYM) and today (DDD & SSYS).  Of course, this was all hindsight speaking.  In retrospect, I didn’t have the “nerve/feel” to get back in after price went back up by market close yesterday ’cause I was out and was not watching the market during the day.  Sometimes, if you take yourself out of the market by out and about doing something else; you can feel “disconnect” from its life-force when you come back to it late in the day.  Hence, my inability to buy back DDD & SSYS before the market closed yesterday.  Today run-up on both was a big miss for me.  Oh well, water under the bridge so I need to move forward.  And yes, this will not be the only time I will miss big; I’m sure I will continue to miss big move from time to time.  Thus is the way the market works.  I have to accept these conditions as part of the way I traded and move on.  On the other hands, my quickness in getting out of positions, while robbed me of big gain from time to time, also saves me from numerous disaster from fast falling prices.  So, from an overall scheme of thing, I’ve to say I’m ahead in some form.

Good Hunting!

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No, I don’t think so.  I’m going with the Fly’s thesis.  If we don’t get rain anytime soon, the drought can become a very serious issue.

Currently loaded up on:

MOS  LNN  MOO  POT  CORN  SYZM  SOYB  (32% of portfolio)

PRLB  TBT  (7%)

Long-term equity (9.6%)

Cash 51.4%

Good Hunting!

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Yeah, this morning got me all excited and I dumped all my positions except for the long-term equity to lock in profits.  I bought TZA and everything seemed to fall into place ’cause even my TZA was making money.  After I placed my stop losses for my TZA positions I took off to take care of other things.

Lo and behold when I came back to watch the market; my TZA positions was stopped out for small losses and the Dow Jones is hovering around +90.  Such is the volatility we have to deal with everyday.

Do I regret selling out this morning?  Nope.

Since I knew I’ve to take off in the morning and the market was on the defensive, I wanted to lock in profit before I took off.    I also know that I will be looking to buy back some of what I sold later on anyway.  One way or the other, I got my peace of mind doing what I needed to do.

However, as this point, I’m not exactly eager to buy back what I sold even though the Dow is up.  Except for SZYM,  I didn’t really miss much by selling this morning.   With only one hour left to go; I prefer to wait to see how the price action behave tomorrow before looking to buy or short.

Looking at my quote list, I’m baffled that at least half of the stocks in the list are in “red” ink even though the Dow is up.  This tell me that there is a bullfight going on.   Therefore, I’m quite content to sit mostly in cash to see what my options are tomorrow.

Yes, I’ll be lying if I don’t feel “bad” about missing the 6% move on SZYM; but that the way the ball rolls when you play safe with no discrimination.

For a small consolation, I bought some TBT before I took off this morning and it still looks good.

Current position:

9.7% long-term equity

3.8% TBT

86.5% cash

YTD gain  18%

Good Hunting!

 

 

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I don’t know about you, while the SPY opened UP; there seems to be a lot of wind blowing against my face instead of propelling me from behind.  Before seeing my gain evaporating from yesterday lucky gain; I do not ever forget the “essence” of the musical chair game we are playing here at the stock exchange.  Needless to say, I immediately took profit when there were still chairs left to grab before the music stopped.

Took profit on all my positions except my long-term equity.

Current position:

Long-term equity: 9.6%

Short (bought TZA): 5%

Cash: 85.4%

Good Hunting!

ps. I will add to TZA if it takes out yesterday high.

 

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Look at the beauty of the daily to monthly charts of DDD.

While the daily DDD below showed some “wavy” up and down, the overall general trend is still up.  Fundamentally, DDD’s CUBE consumer product line “may” be a hit due to being recognized as “Cool” by Stuff Magazine.  We will soon know enough if that “cool” factor also reflects positively on the earning report come later this month (I believe it is July 26th).

How much more catalyst (fundamental) can we get when WSJ proclaimed “Next 3-D Frontier: Printed Plane Parts “?

Technically speaking; please see below daily to monthly charts:

DDD weekly chart below:

DDD monthly chart below:

At this point, I believe it is quite safe to say that the direction of DDD is UP.

I’m glad the daily chart gave me the opportunity to jump back in last week.  Now, let’s see if the coming earning report will “surprise” in a good way so that the uptrend can continue upward for yet more glory days to come.  Perhaps, the 3D printer industry is now thrust upon us sooner than most expected.   Only the numbers can confirm; therefore risk is always around the corner.

Good Hunting!

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From the look of the daily SPY chart below, I believe the BULL is still in good shape.  Notice that today low failed to break thru the half-way point of Friday bar and is currently resting on the 23.6% correction of Friday bar.

As luck would have it, 5 of my 7 stocks I bought last week are actually up today.  I cut 1 of the  2 that did not perform well.

Current position:

32% stocks [DDD (up)  SZYM (up)  SSYS (up)  AUY (up)  WPRT (up)  REMX (neutral to minor down)  TQNT (cut) ]

9.6% long-term equity (taking a 0.4% hit today)

58.4% cash

Good Hunting!

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Thanks to Friday big UP day, it turns the overall outlook of the daily to monthly SPY charts to a more positive upward bias.  From the look of it, Friday price action could really change the flow of the charts significantly.  IF it was a big down day, the daily to monthly SPY charts would be more negative bias and would show a weakened bull.

From the daily SPY chart below, you could see that Friday daily bar closed above the Andrew Pitch-fork median line (offset by 50% to line up beautifully to the pivot high and low).  This look positive for the bull thesis since the low of last Thursday now potentially become a pivot low for the next possible run to where I placed my “X”.

Below is the weekly SPY chart.  You can see that the low of the last week bar is still a higher low compared to 2 weeks ago.  Furthermore, last week low is also higher than the lower parallel median line.   A long bottom tail of last week candlestick bar also mean a more bullish stance.  Notice the trend line (the thick green line) is still sloping up.

Below monthly SPY chart could not be more positive bias; we have a guaranteed higher high that break the lower high pattern of the last 2 bars/months.  While the month is not over yet, current month higher low can be maintained if price actions do not fall apart from here.

Overall, economic news aside, the daily to monthly SPY charts look positively bullish all because of Friday BIG ASS up bar!

If price actions continues upward from here, I will continue to add to my equity position and hold less cash.

Good Hunting!

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